An intensifying Alberta clipper storm system will track into central Manitoba overnight and move across the Red River valley Friday bringing another round of snow to southern Manitoba. Snow from this system is expected to move into The Pas area this evening then spread southeastward through the Interlake areas into southern Manitoba tonight. Snow will become moderate to heavy at times with 5 to 10 cm likely across the Red River valley by Friday afternoon, and 10-15 cm possible through the Interlake areas. An area of freezing rain is also possible over southwest Manitoba this evening and overnight as the clipper system brings in some warmer air aloft. On Friday the clipper will track into the Dakotas with northerly winds behind it dragging colder air in by Friday evening into Friday night. This will lead to colder but sunnier weather for the weekend.
UPDATE: This storm system brought heavy snow to Winnipeg and the northern Red River valley, especially between 9 am and noon. I recorded 3.6 cm of snow between midnight and 7 am, with another 11 cm between 7 am and 1 pm. Snow was especially heavy around 11 am when visibility dropped to 100 metres in heavy snow. Click here for a 24hr time lapse sequence of this day, and note the near zero visibility about half way into the video .
Looks like EC changed the winds from 50 -70 to 30 -50 km/h!!!ReplyDelete
I wonder if they will change it back to what they had before in the morning???
3.5 cm of new snow overnight as of 7 am.. radar showing more on the way with a band of heavier echoes evident between Portage and Brandon up through Dauphin. Band is producing some heavy snow but may also be "bright banding" indicating the presence of ice pellets or freezing rain... we'll see if it holds together by the time it gets to Winnipeg. Otherwise looks like a good 5-10 cm of snow on the way for us.ReplyDelete
Band of moderate to heavy snow approaching Winnipeg from the west.. look for snow to intensify here between now and 10 am with snowfall rates of 1-2cm/hr and visibilities below 800 metres at times.ReplyDelete
9:22 AM man is it coming down! 1/8 th of a mile visibility in my area, 1/2 mile at the airport at 9AM!ReplyDelete
Hopefully this rate of fall doesn't last 3 hours!
METAR CYWG 281500Z 14018KT 1/2SM R13/5500FT/D R36/5500FT/D SN VV003
M05/M06 A2955 RMK SN8 SLP024=
WWCN11 CWWG 281523
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:23 AM CST FRIDAY 28 JANUARY 2011.
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
SNOWFALL WARNING FOR:
=NEW= STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER
CITY OF WINNIPEG
SELKIRK - GIMLI - STONEWALL - WOODLANDS - ERIKSDALE
DUGALD - BEAUSEJOUR - GRAND BEACH
BISSETT - NOPIMING PROVINCIAL PARK - PINE FALLS
WHITESHELL - LAC DU BONNET - PINAWA
SPRAGUE - NORTHWEST ANGLE PROVINCIAL FOREST
ARBORG - HECLA - FISHER RIVER - GYPSUMVILLE - ASHERN
10 TO 15 CM OF SNOW EXPECTED TODAY.
AN INTENSIFYING ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
OVERNIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA TODAY
BRINGING A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA AND SOUTHEASTERN
MANITOBA. SNOW SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF MANITOBA OVERNIGHT AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS BEING
REPORTED AT A NUMBER OF STATIONS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES NEAR 400
METRES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW TAPERS OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 CM ARE FORECAST OVER THE
WARNING AREA. THERE IS A RISK OF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA THIS MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
Back edge of heaviest snow should be through Winnipeg by noon or so.. with lighter snow after that. Until then, look for moderate to heavy snow to continue with a good 2-3 cm/hr. Winter wonderland out there!ReplyDelete
Very heavy snow here in Winnipeg!!ReplyDelete
Outside of a snowsquall,I have never seen this rate of snow before!
Have you ever seen snowfall this heavy before???? Amazing!!!!
Visibility was down to about 200m at 10:00am in Steinbach. We have received 3-4cm of new snow in about 90min. Total snow so far is about 5cm, so getting to 10cm doesn't look to be a problem given the current RADAR trends. My weather station is showing 2.4mm of water equivalent, which tells me that this snow has a fair bit of moisture (my weather station usually under-catches snow by quite a bit).ReplyDelete
Precipitation has changed over to snow pellets in Steinbach. Some tiny pieces of ice appear to be mixed in as well, so will wait to see if we change over to ice pellets.ReplyDelete
SPECI CYWG 281643Z 17013G18KT 1/4SM R13/2800FT/N R36/2600FT/N +SNReplyDelete
VV002 M05/ RMK SN8=
METAR CYWG 281600Z 16013KT 1/4SM R13/3000FT/U R36/2400V4000FT/U +SN
VV001 M05/M06 A2957 RMK SN8 /S02/ SLP028=
just listening in on my VHF air band scanner - 11:02 AM an Air Canada flight refused their take-off clearance due insufficient RVR (runway visual range) ATC Tower report runway 13 RVR at 1000 feet lights on strength 5 ( max). This is pretty intense snow alright!ReplyDelete
Precipitation has changed back to heavy snow. Visibility appears to be back down to about 200m.ReplyDelete
Snow is really deep in some spots with the heavy snow being whipped up with those gusty south winds!ReplyDelete
What a event this is!!!
Another 3cm in the last hour, bringing the total up to 8cm in Steinbach so far.ReplyDelete
"YELLOW" on the radar return sitting right over Winnipeg!ReplyDelete
WHOA ! Very heavy snow!
I can confirm those low visibilities around 11 am.. I was driving along Sterling Lyon Parkway and vsby was down to 50 to 100 metres (GPS measured) in heavy snow. The airport observer should have been caling it 1/8SM SN+ or even 0SM SN+ given those low vsbys.ReplyDelete
I'm up to 12 cm so far.. last heavy band going through right now and then things should improve rapidly after the noon hour..
With the "snowmaggedon" now tapering off to flurries, measured 14 cm here in East Charleswood with a total of 48 cm on the ground.ReplyDelete
14.6 cm storm total here in central Charleswood.. 46 cm on the ground. A heavy packy snow today. 11 mm melted water equivalent for a snow:water ratio around 13:1ReplyDelete
Once again, another clipper brings more snow to Winnipeg than models initially indicated.. 4th one in the past 2 weeks. January snowfall now up to 43 cm, and 115 cm since Nov 1st. Normal winter snowfall in Winnipeg is 110 cm, so we're officially above normal now.. with a good 2-3 months of additional snowfall to go.
Note the wedge of above freezing surface temperatures just to the southwest of Winnipeg as clipper tracks right over us.. temperatures have climbed above freezing as close as Carman with a gusty NW wind, while Winnipeg is at -4C with a SE wind. Earlier models had this clipper tracking up through Berens River today.. NOT!ReplyDelete
Note the strong winds in Brandon!ReplyDelete
Could those strong winds make here to Winnipeg this afternoon???
Could you tell me what the greatest snowfall rate was this morning!!
I always hear about the east coast storms and their 2- 3 INCHES per hour snowfall rate and wonder where this morning's rate compared!!???
There goes that warm sector.. our consecutive below zero streak will continue. Hallock, Grand Forks, and points south and west should be able to break it...ReplyDelete
Total of 11cm in Steinbach. Liquid equivalent is 10.4mm, making for a ratio of about 11:1. 53cm on the ground and 47cm so far this January. This is the snowiest month I've experienced in Steinbach since I began watching the weather.ReplyDelete
Never in a hundred years would you have guessed that January would be the snowiest month...LOL
According to Environment Canada 15 cm of fresh snow fell in Winnipeg with this storm!!!ReplyDelete
Did the north end of the city get about the same amount? My family and I were debating whether it looks like 15 cm or even more than that...ReplyDelete
Looks like the Trans canada is closed west of the city!ReplyDelete
Winds are stronger than the 20 km/h that the forecast called for!!
Nov 8 1996 - Feb 25 1997 (not inclusive)... 108 consecutive days below freezing for Winnipeg airport. With a westerly flow of 20-30 km/h, temps finally broke the freezing mark on the morning of Feb 25/97 at YWG. Incredibly, we would have to endure almost another month before the mercury again rose above zero on Mar 21/97. A brief mild spell allowed snowmelt to commence before the infamous Colorado low struck, dumping bitter cold arctic air in its wake. A bone-chilling low of -22 C was reported for Apr 9/97.ReplyDelete
The rest of course is history.. will it repeat itself?
This comment has been removed by the author.ReplyDelete
Our 'magic date' to break the record would be Mar 5. It will be difficult, but not outside the realm of possibility.
re: today's snowfall rates.
Maximum snowfall rate I observed was around 2-3 cm/hr during late morning.. which is unusually intense for a January snowstorm in southern MB. East coast storms can sometimes get snowfall rates of 5-10 cm/hr but they have a lot more moisture input from the Atlantic that can generate those kind of rates. Embedded instability (like thundersnow) or extreme lake effect can also produce those kind of rates. There's much less moisture and instability available here in the Prairies in January so today's rates were unusual. They likely were the result of some warmer and more moist air aloft coupled with some mid level instability and strong lift that helped to produce such intense rates. Officially at the airport, visibility was never lower than 1/4 mile (400 metres) but there were times it was half that or less. Quite the storm!
Scott in SteinbachReplyDelete
Thanks for your reports.... it would be nice to have some AWOS there at the airport. They have nice webcams there at least. Reports from Steinbach help us out for Roseau-Warroad-LOW areas often.
BTW...I saw your remark on snowiest Jan since you started looking at the weather. When was that if you dont mind me asking...just looking for some historical angle on it.
I haven't been watching the weather for a long time, so I haven't got a long memory for snowfall records. I started my website in the fall of 2007, so that is about where my official history starts. Since that time, January 2011 has been the snowiest month, with 47cm. In the time that I have records for, the next snowiest month would be March 2009, when we received 40cm of snow. Prior to that, the snowiest month that I can vaguely remember was probably December 2004 (around 40cm)..but I didn't keep records at that time, so I can't say for sure. I'm quite impressed with the 47cm so for this January - 47cm is more than twice the normal of 23cm.
Regarding an AWOS...My 'sources' tell me that Steinbach will have an official weather station by the summer. But don't ask me why I know that...
Thanks Scott for that info very helpful !ReplyDelete
How much snow did we get the winter of 1996-1997? How does that compare to this year?
The winter of 1996-97 in Winnipeg had a snowfall of 205 cm from Nov 1st to the end of April. That winter saw 130 cm by the end of January, compared to 115 cm this year. Feb and March of 1997 were not that snowy, only 25 cm during those two months.. but it was the early April blizzard of 48 cm that was the killer.
Putting this winter's snowfall in perspective so far, it's the snowiest winter to the end of January since 96-97. If we have average snowfall over the next three months, we'll end up with about 155-160 cm for the winter which would be the snowiest winter since 96-97. (we had 150 cm in 2005-06, but that January was the warmest Jan on record so there was a lot of mid winter melting)
Took a snow core sample this afternoon from my backyard.. 45 cm snowpack melts down to 80 mm liquid water (just over 3") Given the 115 cm worth of snowfall so far this winter, that works out to an average 14:1 snow:water ratio.ReplyDelete
Thanks Rob for that information. Really puts some thought on how close we are to the 96-97 season which in my mind seems like a bench mark for nearly biblical snow. LOLReplyDelete
Another clipper or two and a spring storm where we usually get one or two Colorado lows and we are in the ball park to match 96-97 or maybe even exceed. With all the moisture in the system now we could be teetering on the straw that broke the camels back. (prob a bad analogy but might be a good time to get into ark building) LOL
Do you have records for the amount of moisture in the snow for 96-97 compared to our 80mm of water at this point?
Quite the crisp morning today with windchill's below -40 for a few hours!ReplyDelete
Rob, I see they are preparing for a very bad storm in central plains up to the midwest U.S!
Lucky for us that one would miss us cause some areas in Chicago area could see 18 inches of snow!
I passed on your snow core to the folks at the RFC in Chanhassen and e-mailed the data to our hydro team here at the office. It can be used to compare to modeled snow water. Thanks....
Thanks Dan.. I'll take updated samples as we head into the next few weeks. Are you getting similar SWE amounts down your way?ReplyDelete
Daryl.. I don't have snow core numbers from the 1996-97 season.. but with over 200 cm of snowfall and little melt.. it must have been quite high, perhaps 100-150 mm or so. The April blizzard had very high water content.. 48 cm of snow and ice pellets that melted into 61 mm of liquid.. which of course put things over the top. As you say, it's scary to think we may be in a similar boat this year (pardon the pun)
daniel.. yeah, that's a nice looking storm that will be affecting the midwest and Ohio valley into southern Ontario and New England this week. Chicago has already issued a rare "blizzard watch" for their area for Tuesday into Wednesday. As the storm heads east, Toronto-Hamilton area looks to be ground zero Tuesday night into Wednesday with 30 cm or more! There'll be a lot of travel impacts with this one!ReplyDelete
Temperature trends will be tricky tonite with bitter cold arctic air in place... and overspreading clouds associated with a clipper tracking to our south. Another one of these situations where pacific moisture advects over a shallow dome of arctic high pressure.. seems to happen a lot in La Nina winters.ReplyDelete
Yes...very bad storm coming up for the U.S !ReplyDelete
Reding some of the weather warnings for cities like Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Chicago, statements like: "Impossible travel", "power line and tree damage" and "life threating storm" make it look like this could be one of the most widespread storms in a long time!
About the snow cores.... locally at the NWS office our snow cover has dwindled a bit....latest core out of 9 inch snow depth was 2.67 inches. We measure in an open area though....in town snow depths are more like 15-20 inches.
Other snow cores generally average 4-4.50 inches Fargo area and 5-6 inches Devils Lake.
With the "snowmaggedon" now tapering off to flurries, measured 14 cm here in East Charleswood with a total of 48 cm on the ground.ReplyDelete