Please note that my Rob's Obs weather station will be down for awhile as I relocate to my new place. It will take a few days to re-site and reinstall my station, but I hope to have it up and running in a few days barring any complications. In the meantime, Rob's Obs website will display current weather data from the Pacific Junction School in Charleswood, and Rob's blog is always there for discussion (although my time will be limited to join in). Here's hoping for good moving weather!
EC forecasts a spectacular Golfers Sunny week for the Manitoba Open next week at Pine Ridge. With a touch of overnight rain this weekend to keep everything in shape scores should be record setting. Now, if the wind co-operates ....ReplyDelete
Spc has issued a slight risk of severe storms for areas along the north Dakota, Manitoba border!!!ReplyDelete
tomorrow could be an active one!
Just wondering why the School weather station has smoke reading currently... A little random.ReplyDelete
This is interesting. Carbon Monoxide Levels Trace Spread of Smoke Across Canada. Note the streak near Winnipeg.ReplyDelete
Anyone thoughts on today's severe potential???ReplyDelete
Looking like the cloud cover could ruin our chances!!!???
Yep, the cloud cover pretty much ruined our chances. Most of the action's in NW Ontario.ReplyDelete
I for one am glad we have a nice cool dry night for a great night's rest zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.ReplyDelete
What is it with that 49th cloud cover barrier?ReplyDelete
Once again, yesterday afternoon, sunshine and >32 just south in Hallock. North of the 49th, cloud and barely 25 was the max. It makes summer evenings so still and quiet I can here the drone of incoming Mosquito swarms.
It was 31C in Steinbach yesterday, 32C in St. Pierre and 33C in Letellier. So this time the 49th parallel wasn't the barrier..perhaps the trans-canada?ReplyDelete
Looks like Rob is getting some stunning weather for his move!!!ReplyDelete
Tomorrow could be a different story!
I wonder if Dave and Justin will be storm chasing tomorrow????ReplyDelete
Do the storm ingredients look better here or south of the border????
Has anyone noticed the Bullseye for 48hr QPF (.93 in) is Pine Ridge Golf Course site of the Manitoba Open starting Thursday am.ReplyDelete
Some evening showers was in the wishcast..
Could this 20mm of rain on Wednesday be a mistake??
Thats the inch or so of RRV summer replacement rain. It arrives just in time to flood the Forks and Assinniboine River walkways. It occurs each time the're cleaned off during the summer.ReplyDelete
Have the walkways actually been usable this year?
Severe t storm watch issued in western MB including Winnipeg. Things might get severe this afternoon, models look promising.ReplyDelete
All the lift and dynamics associated with this wave have produced lots of cloud cover with plenty of undulating alto cummulus and stratus. Moisture has surged northwards... we'll see if all the dynamics can offset limited instability to keep things going.ReplyDelete
Scott Do you expect those severe TSs heading to Steinbach from Grafton/Langdon/Devils lake to hold together til 830 to 1130 pmReplyDelete
Wow, tornado warning for Elie, once again this year. Must be the tornado alley of Manitoba!ReplyDelete
Supercell with history of producing tornado heading NE... we'll how strong the storm remains as it moves into our area.ReplyDelete
That s/b Cavalier ND not LangdonReplyDelete
Spotters reported that the tornado just off to the east of Carman dissipated. Is this storm just knocking on the perimeter weakening? Maybe so, but we'll see.ReplyDelete
This is weird... apparently there's a tornado warning out for the Morris and Portage area: catch is however, the time stamp says 10:38 PM HAC. HAC?! Probably a glitch though, since this: http://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.wwcn11.CWWG.htmlReplyDelete
doesn't mention anything about a tornado warning.
Storms will really ebb and flow in their exact position today, so I wouldn't expect any storms in ND to retain their exact track as they move into MB. One cell south of Fargo looks rather potent, however nothing too extreme noted so far in MB (besides the tornado touchdown).ReplyDelete
Storms trying to organize into a line from south of WInnipeg arching around back to Langdon. They are froming in a CAPE rich environemnt (2000j/kg) whereas locally CAPEs are running around 1250 -1500 J/kg). The worst of these storms will likely affect areas SE of the city. Instability appears to reamin marginal here in Winnipeg but a few heavier cells may advect in. Best low level shear is in N Dakota and deep shear lags behind in western Manitoba...ReplyDelete
Well, sure getting hammered in the south end at least now. Been raining in absolute sheets for a good 20-25 minutes so far. Already about 15-20 mm i've measured so far throughout the evening/late afternoon. More to come!ReplyDelete
Same as Jewels here in St. Vital...getting hammered with heavy rain. Parking lots flooded.ReplyDelete
South side of the city is getting the brunt of it...other parts of the city almost nothing.
"TEST...TEST...TEST. NO TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT." they say as of the latest update. I kind of figured it was a glitch or a test in the first place.ReplyDelete
It getting to the point where E.C.'s watches & warnings are just plain CYA stuff they are of little to no value to the public. And what with this reference to the latest public forecast for more details? I mean come on! All the information shud be on the same page. Why send the public on an easter egg hunt to find more info! Jesus! Somebody fix or fire E.C. as Canada's "official" weather forecaster.ReplyDelete
Bringing the bike to work today was a BAD idea ( as I dump a few inches of water from my shoes)ReplyDelete
Felt like a repeat of the evening of May 29! Around 40 mm i measured. Came in sheets almost non stop for about an hour. A lot of the yard flooded. I'm looking foreward to see some pictures of flooding if there was any =DReplyDelete
Are you ready for round 2 ?????
Better get the scuba gear handy!!!
What I thought was ground clutter from the radar is not!ReplyDelete
There are a line of intense storms developing by the north Dakota border!
Did EC drop the severe watch to soon???
Time will tell!!!!
Lol EC just put up some new severe thunderstorm wacthes I dont think winnipeg will get anything severe. the line is staying south where all the intense cells are, but better safe then sorry I guess.ReplyDelete
Very Intense lighting in Winnipeg now!!!ReplyDelete
Severe Thunderstorm Watch re-issued for City of Winnipeg. Looks like S. Winnipeg could get something out of this again.ReplyDelete
Ya, got a bit of hail, but nothing huge. Lots of lightning as mentioned already, and incredible rain, to add to all the rain i had already todayReplyDelete
Penny-sized hail at my house here in South Winnipeg about 5 minutes ago.ReplyDelete
Is there any tornado risk for winnipeg withen this line?ReplyDelete
It's dark now, so likely not.
How many mms or cms in a foot. Whatever its how much the the water rose in the pool. Fort RichmondReplyDelete
Really loud thunder in the area... some impressive action going on now!ReplyDelete
30 cms or 300 mm in a foot.ReplyDelete
I live in the northwest part of the city and boy the lightning and the thunder was intense! besides that just some heavy rain, and really no winds at all!.ReplyDelete
Did anyone receive less than 25mms or more than 50?ReplyDelete
Inground pools rise disproportionally as the water expands the ground adjacent and shrinks the pool area. Works in reverse on hot dry windy daysReplyDelete
What rain!!! Again!! South end been very lucky for storms with this system. Just got heaviest rain I've seen so far, even heavier than yesterday. A good 30-40 mm or so at least, just passed 30 minutes.ReplyDelete
Just if anyone was interested (anonymous asked who got 50+mm), since the first drop of rain yesterday late afternoon, I've measured 95.2 mm of rain!! Could we get more storms today anyone?ReplyDelete
It was nasty here in south Wpg, lots of rain, street underwater (knee deep at least),even had a car submerged to almost his drivers window!!!!! Crazy stuff happening here.ReplyDelete
Is the Woodlands Radar due for a timeout now with that line of TS moving thru?ReplyDelete
The whole of southern manitoba is in a severe thunderstorm watch again, I guess its not over yet. Whats the main threats for today?ReplyDelete
Does anyone know where I can find a good weather radio...make and model? I thought this would be a good place to ask.ReplyDelete
Well interesting weekend in store...ReplyDelete
Next in series of upper disturbances moves in and taps LLJ and moisture advection. Models show little QPF locally but I would expect MCS to form on the nose of LLJ as it swings along the int'l border early Saturday morning.
From past experience, I would expect warm front to bubble north to Grand Forks during the day. The warm sector will be characterized by an absolutely tropical airmass.. watch for Fargo and Grand Forks to reach to 33 - 35 C with dewpoints in the 25 -27 C range. This will yield extreme CAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg or more.
With cold front moving thru and 50 knots deep shear, potential for very severe tstorms is there especially in N Dakota. Locally we will have to clear off debris cloud from morning convection and watch where triple point between warm front, inverted trough and cold front sets up late Saturday. (GFS is often too fast it seems with frontal passages)... best chance will be SE Manitoba.
Greetings gang. We're finally settled in the new place and slowly getting back to a normal routine again (amid the boxes and displaced furniture). I still haven't hooked up my weather station yet, but I hope to have it up sometime next week (among the other hundreds of to do things!)ReplyDelete
The city of Winnipeg has posted a map displaying rainfall amounts from Tue/Wed Jul 13/14 storms. South and east ends of the city really got hit hard with over 80 mm of rain for the event.. while less than 25 mm fell on the northwest wide of the city. I measured 33 mm in Charleswood Tuesday evening and night, but escaped the deluge early Wednesday morning. Click on my name for link..ReplyDelete
Good to see things are going good with the move!
Maybe another round of severe weather today????
Severe thunderstorms watch issued already for all of southern Manitoba
It could be a busy day!!!
Rob. Thanks again. That City of Winnipeg rain map is interesting.ReplyDelete
Very intense lighting to my north!ReplyDelete
I'm in St. James ....so the north side of the city is getting blasted with many cloud to ground lighting!!
Interesting scenario.. elevated convection occurring in two main areas:ReplyDelete
1) Along 850 hPa theta e gradient in N and C Minnesota dropping towards Twin Cities
2) along a moisture pool associated with northern stream disturbance
The latter are training across N Winnipeg producing hail and torrential downpours.
We will have to watch the area of clear, dry air between the two regions. If deep moisture from south can link up with northern pool then enough instability will be around for something to get going as inverted trough moves east tonite.
I have never in my life seen so much continuous cloud to ground lighting!!!ReplyDelete
That line of thunderstorms is virtually stationary over the north end of Winnipeg.. with several cells along the line giving occasional downpours and small hail as daniel noted. Rainfall amounts up to 13 mm in Stonewall so far with another 5-10 mm possible over ther next hour. Temperature struggling in the mid teens along the north perimeter, while south of the city, sunshine has boosted temperatures up to 24c towards Morris. Severe weather threat this afternoon will be confined mainly south of the TransCanada where there's more sun, higher temps and moisture, and better dynamics.. although the main action will be south of the border in southern ND and Minnesota where tornadoes are possible.ReplyDelete
Do you guys know what is causing this line of convection? Is it just instability?ReplyDelete
Could you explain why some storms produce very little cloud to ground lighting while others (today) produce continuous bolts????
Winnipeg's forecast high today was supposed to be 27 C!!!ReplyDelete
Wow! Not even close ~~~
Yes it was but not far south (ie. Emerson and Morris) got up to 26-27C so it really was just a matter of cloud cover affecting a line that Winnipeg just happened to be north of. The forecast temps were bang on but the extent of the cloud cover was quite anticipated...The result being large temperature differences over a short distance (Winnipeg at around 17C while Morris at 26C!)ReplyDelete
It even got up to 24C as close as Sanford and Starbuck.. so that extra sunshine just south of the perimeter helped to get those temperatures up. Meanwhile rainfall in the city yesterday ranged from 1 or 2 mm over the south end to 12 mm at the airport and 15-20 mm along the north perimeter.ReplyDelete
daniel.. as to why some thunderstorms have more lightning than others.. that's a good question, and one I don't really have an answer for. It all has to do with the amount of water droplets, charge separation and temperature profile in a thundercloud, and how efficient the updrafts and downdrafts are in separating the charges to induce the lightning. Theoretically, the more water droplets you have (i.e. airmasses with higher dewpoints), the more lightning is possible, but this isn't always the case. I have noticed that elevated convection or warm frontal thunderstorms sometimes have the most vivid lightning displays.. but perhaps that's just a personal bias.
With apologies to Scott wasn't that the pseudo 49th barrier. You know the line that runs thru Morris and SteinbachReplyDelete
Rob,hearing all about the heat wave across the U.S. but it certainly is not the case here. Jet stream keeps dipping well to our south closing us off to warmer air masses. What is responsible for this pattern for such an extended period (like has been the case in recent summers)? Any change in the offing?ReplyDelete
Yes, the jet stream has been pretty much locked over the northern US for much of July, preventing all that southern heat from pushing north of the border. It's pretty much a blocking pattern with a large upper ridge over the southern US that has remained persistent, which occurs from time to time. I don't see much evidence of a big pattern change anytime soon, although models hint at some hotter weather over us by early next week, at least for a few days..
Yeah almost all of Canada continues to be under the influence of a broad, flat upper trough.. not very summer-like at all. A never ending series of upper disturnbances has given us day after day of unsettled, windy conditions while areas just to our south lilke Grand Forks and Fargo have basked under temps in the upper twenties and lighter winds.ReplyDelete
This will continue on thru the rest of this week before pattern flips to a more summer like mode for us as Rob alluded to. Main LLJ and moisture transport will remain well off to our south and not link with the numerous northern stream impulses rippling thru the upper trough. As typically happens however, moisture from ET will pool ahead of the arctic stream systems giving the chance for scattered, marginally severe convection.
Then finally, after nearly 4 weeks, main core of westerlies retreats into central Canada allowing upper high over US to ridge up into Northern Plains. I for one hope this solution verifies... I would like to experience that tropical-like heat and humidity again lest we be cheated out of yet another summer.
How is this place that you moved to better or worse,for a weather station???
I know that you had said that your last place had plenty of trees blocking the wind so that you would barely get a wind reading!!!
Upper disturbance producing showers and tstorms over eastern Sasaktachewan this afternoon. This feature looks to weaken and slide off to our south and west.ReplyDelete
Next shortwave is of more interest with models depicting SW flow developing ahead of it. However, 18Z runs of GFS and NAM are radically different.. the latter showing a single, well defined system tapping good LLJ/moisture moving up into eastern N Dakota giving high QPF. GFS on the other hand is more progressive and shows a split system with us in between and little QPF.
Needless to say lots of uncertainty at this point...
My new backyard is more open than my last one, but I back onto a forest, and there's my two storey house which shields it from the other side. So wind exposure will still not be ideal at my new location.. which is hard to get in a residential setting in the city anyways. I've tentatively installed my station at the back of the house, and I'm testing to see what kind of readings I'm getting compared to the airport. Once I'm happy with a new spot, I'll hook it up online.
Looks like we're in the same trend as last summer where the hot weather is perpetually 3, 4, or 5 days away. For the past 2 weeks, EC has been saying the day 6 and 7 forecasts should crack the 30 degree mark....every day, yet it never arrives.ReplyDelete
The difference from last year is this weather is acceptable, last summer was pathetic.
TWN is saying 40-50mm on Friday, in addition 25-35 mm on Saturday! Any thoughts about those 2 days? CTV says sunny. Lots of confusing information.ReplyDelete
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I hate to say it, but the forecasts haven't really been showing that 30C temp just days off, despite what the EC forecasts say. If you are frustrated with public forecasts, I would recommend looking at the WRF, GFS, or ECMWF. These models will offer a second, more accurate portrayal of the upcoming pattern. While these models are far from completely accurate, they generally perform better than the public forecasts. Also, you can look at the ensembles, which give a percentage chance of reaching 30C over a given time period.ReplyDelete
Wow - forecasts all over the place the next few days. EC saying rain Thu and Sat, TWN saying heavy rain Fri and Sat, then the NWS out of Grand Forks saying sunny and warm on Sat!!?? Are we just a little too far north to enjoy the nice weather this weekend?ReplyDelete
I know I shouldn't put any faith in the day 6 or 7 EC forecast yet no matter how many times people tell me that, I see 30C advertised and I begin to anticipate it.
I have a better chance of winning the LOTTO MAX tomorrow than Winnipeg does for hitting 30 C this weekend!!!ReplyDelete
If you follow this blog regularly there is no way you could think 30 C temps were just days away... I commented in early July that we would not likely see the high heat and humidity return until at least the last week of July. GFS did not show any northward movement of the jetstream.. keeping us in a flattened trough with embedded disturbances moving thru. There are finally signs that the main core of westerlies will try to lift further north... we'll see if that comes to pass and for how long.ReplyDelete
Still lots of uncertainty regarding tomorrow's system. GFS and NAM still in disagreement with NAM stronger and further NW. Nose of LLJ and moisture transport maximum stays well south (on both models) translating east from S Dakota to the Iowa/Minnesota border area. Main MCS action will therfore affect those regions.. however models show a lot of convection further north in western N Dakota advecting into Mantoba. The latter seems a lot less certain.
NAM brings system up into N Minnesota and shows LLJ wrapping around and nosing into SE Manitoba by 00Z Friday.. this would imply remnants of convection forming over Minnesota to back into RRV and SE Manitoba by later in the day.
Re: 30C forecasts for Day 6-7ReplyDelete
I have noticed this bias as well.. EC's Day 6-7 forecast is an automated ensemble product from the Canadian Ensemble System, but I suspect there is something askew with the algorithm that outputs temperature and precipitation. It always appears too warm and too dry for us, especially for an ensemble product that by design should be more conservative. For now, I would discount the Day 6-7 forecast, and lean towards other model guidance. Current long range guidance does not support 30C temperatures next week as we stay in a zonal flow, with all the heat still suppressed south of the border.
Looks like your chance of winning lotto max has just got alot better.
30C now forecasted for Saturday?
Appears to be two different waves affecting the upper midwest and eastern prairies...ReplyDelete
1) One over Midwest tapping LLJ/ warm front associated with MCS over Wisconsin and Michigan.
2) One over northern plains aided by left exit quadrant of upper jet streak.
The latter is producing showers and possibly embedded thunder taht is about to move into our area shortly.
Upper ridge builds behind a follow-up system over the weekend. 850 hPa temps of 18-20 C pool ahead of the next trough... depending on timing of thermal ridge and frontal passage, we will have a shot at 30 C either Monday (best chance over SW Manitoba) or Tuesday. So don't get too excited about the lotto just yet.
Lots of elevated convection in NW Ontario where secondary LLJ is winding up around the northern disturbance. The models really struggled in resolving location and interaction of the various lows and waves. Perhaps a bit more wrap around precip in store for us if the band over western RRV can hold together...ReplyDelete
Why are some of the storms in Southern Manitoba going north to south while others are going south to north???ReplyDelete
Is there some front draped across the area???
Wow.. quite the downpour from that small thunderstorm that popped over the city and moved south. 20 mm of rain past hour in Whyte Ridge.. yet not a drop here in Charleswood.ReplyDelete
no rainfall warnings out for parts of southern Manitoba with the stationary rain and thunderstorms...ReplyDelete