tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post6534389134705029081..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Rob's Obs on the moveUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger87125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-67866335052326699242010-07-24T00:56:57.438-05:002010-07-24T00:56:57.438-05:00no rainfall warnings out for parts of southern Man...no rainfall warnings out for parts of southern Manitoba with the stationary rain and thunderstorms...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-72227974912659516622010-07-23T20:15:02.677-05:002010-07-23T20:15:02.677-05:00Wow.. quite the downpour from that small thunderst...Wow.. quite the downpour from that small thunderstorm that popped over the city and moved south. 20 mm of rain past hour in Whyte Ridge.. yet not a drop here in Charleswood.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-43537619753261531712010-07-23T19:14:12.362-05:002010-07-23T19:14:12.362-05:00Why are some of the storms in Southern Manitoba go...Why are some of the storms in Southern Manitoba going north to south while others are going south to north???<br /><br />Is there some front draped across the area???daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-6388062390298966862010-07-22T19:49:39.503-05:002010-07-22T19:49:39.503-05:00Lots of elevated convection in NW Ontario where se...Lots of elevated convection in NW Ontario where secondary LLJ is winding up around the northern disturbance. The models really struggled in resolving location and interaction of the various lows and waves. Perhaps a bit more wrap around precip in store for us if the band over western RRV can hold together...Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-6302620465738528612010-07-22T13:59:45.834-05:002010-07-22T13:59:45.834-05:00Appears to be two different waves affecting the up...Appears to be two different waves affecting the upper midwest and eastern prairies...<br /><br />1) One over Midwest tapping LLJ/ warm front associated with MCS over Wisconsin and Michigan.<br /><br />2) One over northern plains aided by left exit quadrant of upper jet streak.<br /><br />The latter is producing showers and possibly embedded thunder taht is about to move into our area shortly.<br /><br />Upper ridge builds behind a follow-up system over the weekend. 850 hPa temps of 18-20 C pool ahead of the next trough... depending on timing of thermal ridge and frontal passage, we will have a shot at 30 C either Monday (best chance over SW Manitoba) or Tuesday. So don't get too excited about the lotto just yet.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-91709254428504702902010-07-22T07:53:27.804-05:002010-07-22T07:53:27.804-05:00Daniel P,
Looks like your chance of winning lotto...Daniel P,<br /><br />Looks like your chance of winning lotto max has just got alot better.<br />30C now forecasted for Saturday?Chris - Windsor Parknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-55557043646781092082010-07-22T07:08:21.712-05:002010-07-22T07:08:21.712-05:00Re: 30C forecasts for Day 6-7
I have noticed this...Re: 30C forecasts for Day 6-7<br /><br />I have noticed this bias as well.. EC's Day 6-7 forecast is an automated ensemble product from the Canadian Ensemble System, but I suspect there is something askew with the algorithm that outputs temperature and precipitation. It always appears too warm and too dry for us, especially for an ensemble product that by design should be more conservative. For now, I would discount the Day 6-7 forecast, and lean towards other model guidance. Current long range guidance does not support 30C temperatures next week as we stay in a zonal flow, with all the heat still suppressed south of the border.robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-52720710314557319702010-07-21T19:05:36.487-05:002010-07-21T19:05:36.487-05:00If you follow this blog regularly there is no way ...If you follow this blog regularly there is no way you could think 30 C temps were just days away... I commented in early July that we would not likely see the high heat and humidity return until at least the last week of July. GFS did not show any northward movement of the jetstream.. keeping us in a flattened trough with embedded disturbances moving thru. There are finally signs that the main core of westerlies will try to lift further north... we'll see if that comes to pass and for how long.<br /><br />Still lots of uncertainty regarding tomorrow's system. GFS and NAM still in disagreement with NAM stronger and further NW. Nose of LLJ and moisture transport maximum stays well south (on both models) translating east from S Dakota to the Iowa/Minnesota border area. Main MCS action will therfore affect those regions.. however models show a lot of convection further north in western N Dakota advecting into Mantoba. The latter seems a lot less certain.<br /><br />NAM brings system up into N Minnesota and shows LLJ wrapping around and nosing into SE Manitoba by 00Z Friday.. this would imply remnants of convection forming over Minnesota to back into RRV and SE Manitoba by later in the day.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-88688054894192195162010-07-21T15:01:29.430-05:002010-07-21T15:01:29.430-05:00I have a better chance of winning the LOTTO MAX to...I have a better chance of winning the LOTTO MAX tomorrow than Winnipeg does for hitting 30 C this weekend!!!<br /><br />LOL!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-58793476302969406542010-07-21T12:56:35.650-05:002010-07-21T12:56:35.650-05:00Thanks Scott,
I know I shouldn't put any fait...Thanks Scott,<br /><br />I know I shouldn't put any faith in the day 6 or 7 EC forecast yet no matter how many times people tell me that, I see 30C advertised and I begin to anticipate it.Chris - Windsor Parknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-90001854233451504052010-07-21T12:37:43.419-05:002010-07-21T12:37:43.419-05:00Wow - forecasts all over the place the next few da...Wow - forecasts all over the place the next few days. EC saying rain Thu and Sat, TWN saying heavy rain Fri and Sat, then the NWS out of Grand Forks saying sunny and warm on Sat!!?? Are we just a little too far north to enjoy the nice weather this weekend?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-9599361077794072372010-07-21T12:36:31.418-05:002010-07-21T12:36:31.418-05:00I hate to say it, but the forecasts haven't re...I hate to say it, but the forecasts haven't really been showing that 30C temp just days off, despite what the EC forecasts say. If you are frustrated with public forecasts, I would recommend looking at the WRF, GFS, or ECMWF. These models will offer a second, more accurate portrayal of the upcoming pattern. While these models are far from completely accurate, they generally perform better than the public forecasts. Also, you can look at the ensembles, which give a percentage chance of reaching 30C over a given time period.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-71696729141796881262010-07-21T12:25:29.979-05:002010-07-21T12:25:29.979-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Maxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09511971659100579935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-74025787368973041792010-07-21T12:25:26.442-05:002010-07-21T12:25:26.442-05:00TWN is saying 40-50mm on Friday, in addition 25-35...TWN is saying 40-50mm on Friday, in addition 25-35 mm on Saturday! Any thoughts about those 2 days? CTV says sunny. Lots of confusing information.Maxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09511971659100579935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-10862397279525168422010-07-21T12:23:44.932-05:002010-07-21T12:23:44.932-05:00Looks like we're in the same trend as last sum...Looks like we're in the same trend as last summer where the hot weather is perpetually 3, 4, or 5 days away. For the past 2 weeks, EC has been saying the day 6 and 7 forecasts should crack the 30 degree mark....every day, yet it never arrives.<br />The difference from last year is this weather is acceptable, last summer was pathetic.Chris - Windsor Parknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-83594439230328949902010-07-21T11:32:13.644-05:002010-07-21T11:32:13.644-05:00daniel..
My new backyard is more open than my las...daniel..<br /><br />My new backyard is more open than my last one, but I back onto a forest, and there's my two storey house which shields it from the other side. So wind exposure will still not be ideal at my new location.. which is hard to get in a residential setting in the city anyways. I've tentatively installed my station at the back of the house, and I'm testing to see what kind of readings I'm getting compared to the airport. Once I'm happy with a new spot, I'll hook it up online.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-79326546539386764102010-07-20T17:57:41.164-05:002010-07-20T17:57:41.164-05:00Upper disturbance producing showers and tstorms ov...Upper disturbance producing showers and tstorms over eastern Sasaktachewan this afternoon. This feature looks to weaken and slide off to our south and west.<br /><br />Next shortwave is of more interest with models depicting SW flow developing ahead of it. However, 18Z runs of GFS and NAM are radically different.. the latter showing a single, well defined system tapping good LLJ/moisture moving up into eastern N Dakota giving high QPF. GFS on the other hand is more progressive and shows a split system with us in between and little QPF.<br /><br />Needless to say lots of uncertainty at this point...Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-57912452249739897462010-07-20T10:57:13.859-05:002010-07-20T10:57:13.859-05:00Rob!
How is this place that you moved to better o...Rob!<br /><br />How is this place that you moved to better or worse,for a weather station???<br /><br />I know that you had said that your last place had plenty of trees blocking the wind so that you would barely get a wind reading!!!daniel pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-50057714922677670062010-07-19T18:17:15.991-05:002010-07-19T18:17:15.991-05:00Yeah almost all of Canada continues to be under th...Yeah almost all of Canada continues to be under the influence of a broad, flat upper trough.. not very summer-like at all. A never ending series of upper disturnbances has given us day after day of unsettled, windy conditions while areas just to our south lilke Grand Forks and Fargo have basked under temps in the upper twenties and lighter winds.<br /><br />This will continue on thru the rest of this week before pattern flips to a more summer like mode for us as Rob alluded to. Main LLJ and moisture transport will remain well off to our south and not link with the numerous northern stream impulses rippling thru the upper trough. As typically happens however, moisture from ET will pool ahead of the arctic stream systems giving the chance for scattered, marginally severe convection.<br /><br />Then finally, after nearly 4 weeks, main core of westerlies retreats into central Canada allowing upper high over US to ridge up into Northern Plains. I for one hope this solution verifies... I would like to experience that tropical-like heat and humidity again lest we be cheated out of yet another summer.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-23065566871814148762010-07-19T06:41:14.017-05:002010-07-19T06:41:14.017-05:00Mark..
Yes, the jet stream has been pretty much l...Mark..<br /><br />Yes, the jet stream has been pretty much locked over the northern US for much of July, preventing all that southern heat from pushing north of the border. It's pretty much a blocking pattern with a large upper ridge over the southern US that has remained persistent, which occurs from time to time. I don't see much evidence of a big pattern change anytime soon, although models hint at some hotter weather over us by early next week, at least for a few days..robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-40750284374978369072010-07-18T18:57:18.639-05:002010-07-18T18:57:18.639-05:00Rob,hearing all about the heat wave across the U.S...Rob,hearing all about the heat wave across the U.S. but it certainly is not the case here. Jet stream keeps dipping well to our south closing us off to warmer air masses. What is responsible for this pattern for such an extended period (like has been the case in recent summers)? Any change in the offing?Marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-15639710275039651762010-07-18T13:55:26.692-05:002010-07-18T13:55:26.692-05:00With apologies to Scott wasn't that the pseudo...With apologies to Scott wasn't that the pseudo 49th barrier. You know the line that runs thru Morris and SteinbachDonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16528334558979288856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-7952877285566620552010-07-18T13:51:40.553-05:002010-07-18T13:51:40.553-05:00It even got up to 24C as close as Sanford and Star...It even got up to 24C as close as Sanford and Starbuck.. so that extra sunshine just south of the perimeter helped to get those temperatures up. Meanwhile rainfall in the city yesterday ranged from 1 or 2 mm over the south end to 12 mm at the airport and 15-20 mm along the north perimeter.<br /><br />daniel.. as to why some thunderstorms have more lightning than others.. that's a good question, and one I don't really have an answer for. It all has to do with the amount of water droplets, charge separation and temperature profile in a thundercloud, and how efficient the updrafts and downdrafts are in separating the charges to induce the lightning. Theoretically, the more water droplets you have (i.e. airmasses with higher dewpoints), the more lightning is possible, but this isn't always the case. I have noticed that elevated convection or warm frontal thunderstorms sometimes have the most vivid lightning displays.. but perhaps that's just a personal bias.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-49695507291076875162010-07-18T13:00:03.853-05:002010-07-18T13:00:03.853-05:00Yes it was but not far south (ie. Emerson and Morr...Yes it was but not far south (ie. Emerson and Morris) got up to 26-27C so it really was just a matter of cloud cover affecting a line that Winnipeg just happened to be north of. The forecast temps were bang on but the extent of the cloud cover was quite anticipated...The result being large temperature differences over a short distance (Winnipeg at around 17C while Morris at 26C!)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-75050746018024230212010-07-17T21:05:13.735-05:002010-07-17T21:05:13.735-05:00Winnipeg's forecast high today was supposed to...Winnipeg's forecast high today was supposed to be 27 C!!!<br /><br />Wow! Not even close ~~~daniel Pnoreply@blogger.com