Saturday, July 24, 2010
Warmer weather ahead
Sunnier and warmer weather is expected over southern MB over the next few days, as a cool unstable airmass over southern MB finally moves out of the area. After a cloudy start this morning (with showers over the southern Red River valley), skies will begin to clear out by this afternoon with temperatures of 27C forecast. Sunday looks fabulous with plenty of sunshine and highs of 28C. The warm weather is expected to continue into Monday with highs possibly reaching the 30C mark before a weak cold front pushes through southern MB late Monday into Monday night that may trigger some scattered thunderstorms. Slightly cooler but pleasant sunny weather is forecast through midweek before warmer weather returns for the end of the week into next weekend.
Posted by rob at 6:35 AM
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Looking for heat this summer? Try Russia. While 30C temperatures continue to elude southern MB, Russia is suffering through a historic heat wave as temperatures climb to all time records. Moscow hit 36C today, coming close to their all time high of 36.6C and it looks like they'll be sweltering through highs of 35-40C for the next week. This will be very tough on Russia, which is unaccustomed to this type of heat and has limited infrastucture to deal with it. This is similar to the disastrous 2003 heat wave in western Europe, which led to the deaths of thousands of people, mainly elderly, who were unaccustomed to this type of heat and didn't have proper air conditioning or ventilation in their homes to cope with a prolonged heat wave. Hopefully, Russia learns from that experience and takes precautions to prevent a similar situation.ReplyDelete
By the way, I have my weather station installed at my new place, and hope to have it online over the next day or so. The new set up isn't the best, as my wind is sheltered even more than my last place, and temperatures may be a degree or two too warm in sunshine due to the lack of ventilation. I will monitor the data over the next few weeks and will consider a better location depending on the results.ReplyDelete
My daughter has been in Krakow, Poland for the last 3 weeks without air conditioning. Loves the city but the heat she says is disgusting. Of course she's about to leave so the weather forecast to cool off there.ReplyDelete
Rob what are your thoughts about the severe weather potential tomorrow. I'm not an expert at this but seems to me like we got a good shot at severe storms.ReplyDelete
Tornado warnings in areas of Saskatchewan !ReplyDelete
They sure have been getting pounded with severe weather this season!
The potential is certainly there for some severe thunderstorms over the RRV tomorrow into tomorrow night. Main low drifts across the Dakotas with an inverted trof through southern MB, along with a decent upper jet and dewpoints in the 16-19C range giving capes in the 2000 range. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats, along with locally very heavy rain. NAM and GEM both indicating potential for 30-50 mm of rain in heaviest storms over RRV Monday night. SPC is showing a slight risk of severe over ND for tomorrow.
thanks rob, any possibility of tornadic activity like they saw in sk. today, i know thy had the one tornado reported there.ReplyDelete
Isolated tornadoes are possible given the shear and energy expected later today into this evening, however the main threat will be large hail and wind (note SPC's 30% risk of damaging winds along the ND/MB border) Greatest risk of storms appears to be over the RRV and SE MB where models are indicating 30-50 mm of convective rainfall in thunderstorms. I'm a bit surprised by the rather low 30% POP in the forecast for later today into tonight, given the situation and the activity over SK yesterday. I wouldn't be surprised to see the risk of thunderstorms increase in upcoming forecasts, especially for tonight once the cap breaks and storms propogate in from the southwest..ReplyDelete
thanks again rob, looks to be a very interesting day, ill be watching continuously!!ReplyDelete
Cells starting to pop over SW MB.. could be the first of many over the next few hours. Storms will have plenty of heat and moisture to work with as they move east into RRV and SE MB, so I don't think sunset will diminish activity. These things should be going much of the night. Note that GFK has issued a flash flood watch for counties near the Canadian border due to the potential for heavy rainfall. Not surprising given the steamy dewpoints in the low 20s out there..ReplyDelete
Models have been hinting at an MCS with damaging winds along the leading edge during the overnight hours. That of course would occur after the surfaced based cells this evening.ReplyDelete
CAPE between 4000 and 5000J/kg across the southern RRV. Haven't seen values like this so far this year. With the 50kts jet streak edging into SW MB, all the ingredients are in place for some nasty storms to develop.
32/23 right now at YWG probably yielding 5000 J/kg CAPE...ReplyDelete
WSW to ENE orineted front to stall out acorss our region overnite. Moisture convergence will persist along back edge of weak LLJ (which remains nearly stationary) and trough. Given that set-up is not progressive and that flow will be nearly unidirectional... potential is there for multicell lines to build back and repeatedly train along frontal boundary.
Storm near Portage seems to have developed off of a lake breeze coming off of Lake Manitoba...keep an eye on this spot for development...ReplyDelete
Splitting supercell south of Estevan now tornado warned by SPC...MD now out for this area as well...here we go!ReplyDelete
Severe storm near Elie!ReplyDelete
Winnipeg could get a major storm in the next hour!!!
Any Winnipeg folks seeing that storm near Portage? Appears to be taking on supercell characteristics!ReplyDelete
I can see both of the warned storms from my roof in Winnipeg...the one to the NE (just South of L. Winnipeg) looks impressive as well. A nice looking inflow feature with the Portage storm makes it look promising!ReplyDelete
Very impressive supercell in the Elie area!ReplyDelete
It would seem to start hooking to the south in the past few frames!
This storm looks dangerous!
If you live in Winnipeg, particularly south Winnipeg, be on the lookout for this storm. Given all the tornado warnings in ND, I wouldn't be taking any chances.ReplyDelete
Funnel cloud just reported west of Starbuck looking west.ReplyDelete
Funnel cloud not a surprise...tornado warning needs to go out...ReplyDelete
Latest radar scan definitely looks like its turning right...ReplyDelete
large hail reported 5 kilometers southeast of Elie!!!ReplyDelete
My parents called me to confirm that!
Large Funnel cloud (Elie cell)on ESE side visible from 100feet up Pembina and Bishop Grandin 15 min ago. Then disappear'd as north Winnipeg cell built and began Westward expansionReplyDelete
How big was the hail? EC warning says toonie sized.ReplyDelete
Gotta look at the south Winnipeg cell from Kenaston.. at the time a low precip type supercell.. very nice tail and wall cloud. I was too far away to make out any funnel cloud.ReplyDelete
Looks like it will split apart with one part affecting YWG and rest moving thru S Winnipeg...
That cell southwest of Winnipeg showing a nice velocity couplet just NW of Sanford.. dangerous storm might produce a tornado! Check out the possible wall cloud on the Sanford webcam!ReplyDelete
Definite signs of strong rotation in that storm south of Elie. South Winnipeg may be brushed by the hail core.ReplyDelete
Two discrete supercells... second one looks to have mesocyclone/wall cloud just east of stonewall by the looks of low resolution radarReplyDelete
Why are there no tornado watches or warnings in effect if there are reported funnel clouds and these cells look this strong with clearly evident hooks on them, even on low resolution radar on EC site?ReplyDelete
Tornado watch now issued for areas east of Portage La Prairie!!!!ReplyDelete
HA how ironic, literally just as I hit post button the watch goes out. LmaoReplyDelete
Tornado warnings issued!ReplyDelete
Tornado on the ground in the area of Oakbank!
The Oakbank storm has taken over now by the looks of things...ReplyDelete
Take a look at that storm along the international border!ReplyDelete
That is a MONSTER of a storm!!!
When is Winnipeg due to see their next batch of storms? Will more form or will we have to wait for the ones from sask. to slide on through?ReplyDelete
Can anyone tell me if Winnipeg broke a high temperature record today???ReplyDelete
Old record 35.6°C, so probably not.ReplyDelete
I jumped in the car and headed over to South Perimeter just East of Lagimodere - What a HUGE supercell over Oakbank. Took a few pictures of it. Was listening to CJOB and people are calling in from LaSalle and other areas stating that golf ball hail dropped there.ReplyDelete
Tornado watch just posted for Killarny, Morden and Wikler areas. Looks like they're going to get the northern tip of that large storm in ND.ReplyDelete
Amazing light show to my south!ReplyDelete
Those storms in the Morden , Winkler area are producing tremendous lighting!
Some altocumulus showing up as convection will transition to more elevated nature...ReplyDelete
We will see several forward propagating and back-building line segments depending on orientation of cold pools/outflow. Morden-Altona corridor experiencing some training of cells as northern edge of cold pool is aligned with upper flow while convection in N Dakota is moving forward. With weak LLJ and front around... we have the potential to experience storms for a good part of the nite into the early morning.
Winds sure have picked up here in St James!!ReplyDelete
any tornadic activity for winnipeg tonight?ReplyDelete
Here in St. Vital, it's pouring out. I went out to watch the incoming storms and the very frequent lightning associated with them (must be at least 1-15 strikes per minute) as they moved in. I was able to make out a distinct shelf cloud between the flashes. It was kinda eerie, because the winds were practically calm, then as the shelf cloud approached even more the winds drastically increased and gusted fairly strong.ReplyDelete
Edit...10-15, not 1-15, lol. I thought I had already fixed that typo :PReplyDelete
are the storms weakening across southern manitoba? because the colors seem to be diminishing everywhere.ReplyDelete
The dewpoints did not drop much from yesterday!ReplyDelete
20 C dewpoint at noon here in Winnipeg!
Went chasing the southern storm last night; got some good pictures. No tornado, but the storm tried awfully hard.ReplyDelete
This picture was from approx. 8:10PM, when the doppler radar was showing the strongest rotation.
The entire lowering was definitely a funnel with a pretty good rotation on it. Would have been a very scary tornado had it gotten all the way to the ground.
The storm then pulsed quite a bit. Interesting features developed as the storm began to refocus energy:
It developed horizontal vortex tubes you could watch scud spin along in. They tried very hard to tilt into the vertical but couldn't quite do it.
After taking my Mazda 3 through a ditch and up an incredibly steep shoulder onto Highway 3 after trying to get away from the spinny fingers down a no exit road whose sign was so shot up you couldn't read "No Exit" on it, we got behind the storm and followed it for a while. It was able to refocus for one last huzzah and developed into an absolutely beautiful cloud by 9:15.
Huge, slowly rotating updraft with a little turret/laminar cap cloud nestled underneath the tilted updraft lit by the sunset. Even without a tornado, it was a spectacular way to end the day.
STUNNING photos Buffalo Seven!!!ReplyDelete
The last one particularly so!
I changed my profile photo to one that i took last night, of the storm that passed through 'Peg last night around midnight. The shelf cloud was awsome and it almost seemed at a funnel tried to form. I got more interesting pics, but dont know how to post them here, if anyone has ideas, i'd appreciate them.ReplyDelete
Mr. Farms. Hopefully Buffalo Seven or Rob will be able to help you!ReplyDelete
It does look like a small lowering in your photo.
Mr. Farms, Imageshack.us will allow you to upload pictures and give you a direct link to them you can just copy paste into your comment.ReplyDelete
Nice pictures Buffalo Seven!ReplyDelete
I took a few pictures of my own...click my name.
By the way, to those asking "why wasn't there a tornado warning on that storm by Starbuck?" I have the answer.ReplyDelete
Because it never had any chance of producing a tornado.
I was chasing it for its entire life. At one point it started sucking air in a bit better, about the time of Brad's picture. There was a scud tag underneath the wall cloud that I called in to tell the office that was there and likely someone would call it in as a funnel. And sure enough, when I called it in they told me that they had just received a report of a "funnel" on that storm. There was no rotation in the scud tag and the wall cloud itself was barely rotating.
In short, the storm had good mid-level rotation, but could never focus it in the low levels for whatever reason.
So armchair quarterback EC all you want, but they had reasons--good ones for not hitting the storm with a tornado warning.
(FYI we reported the toonie hail near Oakville and then golf balls to baseballs near La Salle.)
Great shots Brad.. especially that third one of the entire supercell. Awesome! I saw that cell from the north in Charleswood, and it looked mighty impressive.. had to call the wife and kids out to marvel at the stunning beauty of Mother Nature. Your photo captured it well..ReplyDelete
Thanks for the outstanding pics and description Brad.. Luv that first photo duplicating my elevated view at 7:50. If you elongate, tilt down, and minimally darken that left center cloud edge its similar to what I blogged as a funnel at 8pm.ReplyDelete
I assume your view was WSW
Is it a Tag or??
I would like to exchange links with your site robsobsblog.blogspot.comReplyDelete
Is this possible?