Friday, February 05, 2010
Snow moving in this weekend..
Cloudy mild weather is on tap over southern MB today with temperatures rising to the -5C mark.. some 5 degrees above normal for early February. A change in the weather is expected this weekend however as a slow moving trough of low pressure moves across southern Manitoba. An area of snow is forecast to develop across western MB and the Interlake regions Saturday morning spreading into Winnipeg and the Red River valley by Saturday afternoon. Snow is expected to increase in intensity Saturday night across the RRV with 5-8 cm possible by Sunday morning and another 2-5 cm Sunday. Increasing northerly winds Sunday afternoon and Sunday night will draw in colder air as well as the possibility of blowing and drifting snow. This could make for another tricky commute Monday morning although a repeat of Monday January 25th's blizzard conditions is not expected. Still... get ready for another snowy weekend across southern MB with wintery travel conditions returning once again.
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NWS Grand Forks has issued a winter storm watch for much of eastern ND and northwest MN for the potential of 15-30 cm of snow Saturday night through Monday. Still some uncertainty in how quickly this system will evolve and progress, but the potential is there for some significant snowfall, along with gusty winds developing late Sunday into Monday. Stay tuned..
ReplyDeleteRight now I'm seeing 10 to 15cm for Winnipeg as a storm total. Probably around 15cm for Steinbach, maybe a little more than that. I think areas near the US border, such as Morden and Emerson, could see 20 to 25cm, but for now I would only predict 15 to 20cm.
ReplyDeleteRob!
ReplyDeleteIf Winnipeg would get 2-4 cm tomorrow
and 5 -10 cm for tomorrow night as the forecast states then would that qualify for a snowfall warning????
Dan GF!
ReplyDeleteYou and the rest of grand forks must be getting really concerned about all of this snow starting to pile up!!!
That 25cms of snow this weekend is not welcome
ReplyDeleteRobs previously posted a NWS link and early flood forecast point out that the table has been set for another spring event .
High fall moisture levels . a deep frost penetration and High Snow water equivalent Basin cover (150% of last years at this time) are all there. These conditions extend almost to Winnipeg's doorstep. The final 2 conditions, a rapid usually late melt, and 10 more weeks of significant moisture are all that stands between Northern RRVers and a repeat of last year.
Now the question is will the northern RRV receive 100 mm in the next 9 or 10 weeks (less this weekends snow) This has occurred 5 times in the last 14 years
. ECs Winnipeg data has identified that approximately 100 mm. of precipitation between (Feb 1) and the flood crest date occurred in the 6 major floods 50,66,79,96,97, and 09. During the 31 years since 1978. the only non flood year when this occurred was 2007 when 92mm did not produce a major flood. 1998 came close with 30 of 99mm coming April 12 and 13th after the crest had passed.
As to a late melt, the current snowpack temp is warmer than at this time last year but we are once again entering a spell of arctic cold. The more extensive SWE precipitation in Western ND and all of SD could also moderate any rapid rise in temps and prevent an early melt.
Until tonights forecast for ND .. up to 25cms of snow this weekend, I was skeptical of this occurring again.(a la 96-97) Now 75cm in 9 weeks or 150% of normal appears much more likely to be in the range of probabilities.
Jim
Latest runs tonight have backed off a little on the snow amounts again over Winnipeg/RRV with GEM indicating about 2 cm Saturday afternoon, 5 cm Saturday night and another 3-5 cm Sunday. NAM is fairly similar with amounts. Total snowfall amounts around 10-15 cm for Winnipeg looking most likely between Saturday afternoon and Sunday night.
ReplyDeleteIn answer to daniel's question.. EC issues snowfall warnings for amounts of 10 cm or more within 12 hrs, or 15 cm or more within 24 hrs. This event would fall short of those criteria, but may come close.
No doubt about warning amounts in Washington DC tonight! They are getting pummelled out there in what could be one of the heaviest snowfalls they've ever recorded!
We are gearing up for a busy flood season in the RRV. As usual the weather at time of melt so important. Right now...our local climate person here at the office is suspecting a return to wetter period as we head into later March into April. He said 1966 and 1969 keeps coming up as composite years. I am just relaying his info he gave me. I am not the expert he is.
ReplyDeleteFor this next system looks like upper low slows down as it drops into nd/sd sunday into monday and lingers the snow over much of the nd rrv and wrn mn into monday night. local models are giving a good 6 to 10 inch accum grand forks southward. most areas getting 1-2 inches friday and friday night with this current weak upper wave over nd.
Area of snow over western MB this morning, west of a Lake Manitoba-Portage-Morden line as of 8 am. Visibilities around 2 miles in light snow at Brandon and Dauphin. Snow should make its way slowly eastward reaching Winnipeg/RRV this afternoon sometime. Snow should increase in intensity this evening. Still looking at about 10-15 cm for Winnipeg through Sunday night. Increasing northerly winds Sunday could also pose blowing and drifting problems, especially over western and southern RRV.
ReplyDeleteDan GF
ReplyDelete69 is also a year which produced a major flood in Fargo with lesser floods in the north.. all of them in Mid April to early May
Interesting graphical 36 hour loop with snow amounts on my name or
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop12hr.html
Once again the invisible shield seems to keep most of the snow activity south and east of Winnipeg.
Are you saying we are not going to get the 5-15cms now?
ReplyDeleteWinter storm warning issued for Winnipeg and almost all of southern Manitoba!!!
ReplyDeleteBreak out the SNOWBLOWER!!!!!!
Daryl!
ReplyDeleteThe snow is on our doorstep!
You know how inverted troughs give us lots of snow!!!
On radar the system doesn't look all that big but maybe there is more further north out of radar range. I guess it will begin to invert right over the city and basically stall out.
ReplyDeleteSnow is spreading in from the northwest.. should be in Winnipeg within the next hour or two. Look for snow to steadily increase tonight and continue into Sunday but with a weakening trend as bulk of snow moves into ND. Latest model guidance is suggesting a marginal snow event for Winnipeg/RRV with totals around 7-10 cm by Sunday night.. but these inverted trofs are notorious for giving greater amounts than models advertise. As such 10-15 cm still looks good for Winnipeg/RRV. I don't think you'll need the snowblower for this one.. unless Mother Nature surprises us with a nice stationary band of heavy snow sitting right over the city!
ReplyDeleteDan P That didn't make it to the trans canada hiway this morning (cypress hills)before it disappeared.
ReplyDeleteMake that the Carberry hills
ReplyDeleteVery interesting snowfall event shaping up for the RRV in the short term. Snowshield is rapidly expanding and moving towards Winnipeg at this time.
ReplyDeleteThis cut-off low looks to remain anchored over the Northern Plains for quite some time. Snow rates won't be overly impressive...it's the prolonged nature of the event that will give Winnipeg and areas along the RRV high amounts.
Unfortnately for the flood situation, it looks like the trough will sharpen and remain almost Q-S along the RRV tonight through tomorrow. If banding occurs...then snow amounts may be quite high.
It looks like three significant snowfall events so far once this one is complete for the Red River Valley. The spring flood outlook will change dramatically after this. Actually with this storm...it looks like more might fall in the southern catchment area of the RRV. Normally this would be a good thing for 'normal' rivers, but as we all know...this one flows to the North...so that's bad news!
Stay safe out there...me thinks 15cm of snow looks highly probable!
The big difference between this storm and last storm is that the temperatures right off the get go will be much colder!!!
ReplyDeleteLook for the snow to start accumulating right away as opposed to the last storm where a lot of it melted on contact on the roadways!
3 weekend storms in 6 weeks! If we have to look at another 3 storms, weekdays are preferred. That winter drive to Brandon and back doen't need to be dangerous to relieve the tedium.
ReplyDeleteAccumulations really tough.. models like GFS show main forcing and heavier precip stalling just SE of us after rotating thru overnite. If this region sets up a bit further NW, Winnipeg will be influenced by any embedded heavy snow bands for a longer period of time and those precip totals would be actualized. NWS discussions mention strong low level frontogenesis and Q vector convergence. Also as cold core drops south it will interact with warm moist low level conditions so instability and resultant banding certainly possible.
ReplyDeleteSnow ratios will also be tricky as mentioned in the NWS Grand Forks discussion.. they will increase as cold core moves overhead only to decrease again as warmer air wraps around in wake of upper low.
Overall a very unorthodox system... energy splits in two with one part getting caught up in southern stream (and interacting with copious moisture) generating another big storm for the Atlantic Coast. Remnant upper low remains anchored over northern Manitoba and GFS hints at similar eveolution to this past system... as low drops south and taps better moisture. Seems unlikely to have almost the same unusual scenario repeat itself, but something to watch for in subsequent runs.
Has anyone heard of the term....
ReplyDelete"SNOWMAGEDDON"
Is that like the end of the world???
LOL
Snowmageddon.. I hate terms like this. It's just another media crazed term to overhype a storm that is certainly significant, but can hardly be considered a snowstorm to end mankind as we know it. Yeah, it was a lot of snow that shut down the city, but I saw footage from DC today and people were loving it! Smiles all around. Hardly seemed like the end of the world to me. Officially, it wasn't even the heaviest all-time snowfall for DC, but only the 4th! And if that was Snowmageddon, what do we call a storm like the Superstorm of March 1993 that was far more intense and covered most of the eastern US with vicious winds and snow? They'll have to invent a new exaggeration term..
ReplyDeleteNo snowmageddon here.. just a nice snowfall.. 2.5-3 cm now as of 10 pm with another 5 or so on the way tonight.
4 cm in Winnipeg as of midnight..
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Warnings canceled!
ReplyDeleteNot enough snow now for warning amounts!
Brim over I acquiesce in but I think the brief should acquire more info then it has.
ReplyDeleteYeah.. we dropped the warning due to marginal snowfall amounts and limited areas of blowing snow today.. Overall a marginal event that had potential, but didn't quite make it. Models actually did quite well on amounts with 7 cm in Winnipeg overnight, 5 cm in Brandon.. maybe 10-15 cm over Riding Mtns. Note that there will still be more snow today especially south and east of Winnipeg before inverted trof pushes back over us this evening and gives us another couple of cm. Also, locally reduced vsbys in blowing snow at times outside the city today and this evening. Road conditions are snow covered and slippery this morning with reduced vsbys in some areas. Caution advised if travelling..
ReplyDeleteRob!
ReplyDeleteOne thing that took me by surprise is that temperature drop!
Then for some reason is going to warm up tonight!!
Where is this warm air coming from if the cold front has passed us already????
The area of snow has stalled over the Winnipeg area... just to bad the snow rates are so minimal or we could have some high storm totals!!
ReplyDeleteTWN Hourly forecasts that lack windspeed or changes and Inaccurate Hiway conditions make driving in from Brandon an adventure...
ReplyDeleteVisibility is almost non existent between Hiway 340 (Douglas and Camp Hughes (Derry Road) IMO Most MBers wouldnt know that 340 was Douglas MB or the Camp Shilo Road Not just Brandon to Hiway 340...and thats at 2pm in a big SUV (hybrid)
If the system is stalled over Wpg what is the effect on the Grand Forks and Fargo?
ReplyDeleteWill they receive more or less snow than predicted?
The NWS area forecast discussion posted this at 222pm CST ...........SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
ReplyDeleteIN THE NRN HALF OF THE WARNING AND STILL LOWER ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE WARNING. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GUSTS OVER 25
MPH... BUT WILL NEED AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW TO VERIFY THE
WARNING. THINK WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET THIS IN THE NORTH AS THE
SNOW BANDS GET GOING AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR THE SOUTH...STILL
EXPECTING THE SNOW TO LAST A BIT LONGER THERE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TOTALS... ESPECIALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. STILL LOOKING FOR LESS
SNOW EAST AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY........
Full text at
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=arx&product=AFD&issuedby=FGF
Another 3 cm up to 7 pm this evening, storm total of 10 cm so far in Charleswood. Radar shows light snow continuing through midnight with another 1 or 2 cm likely by the time it tapers off overnight. So storm totals of 10-15 cm look reasonable. This is pretty much in line with most other spots in southern MB from the reports we've received.
ReplyDeleteAmazing temperature differential across southeast MB this evening with minus 20 readings west of the RRV, and temperatures in the minus single digits to our north and east (Gimli and Pinawa up to -6C currently). Look for Winnipeg temperatures to climb overnight as we tap that milder air to our northeast. (that's not something you see every day in February.. northeast winds bringing in warmer air!)
Good early morning...some snow reports down here since saturday evening when the main wave came down. We got nickeled and dime for 2 days before that with an inch or two.
ReplyDeleteBut from around 6 pm saturday to 6 am monday...
4 inches at nws grand forks...4-5 very much the average grand forks area.
6-7 in fargo...fergus falls mn
6 in wahpeton
3-4 in valley city and devils lake
generally 3-4 along canadian border
--snow depths generally 15 to 25 inches.
Thanks Dan.. I ended up with a storm total of 5 inches (12.5 cm) at my place, general amounts of 2-6 inches (5-15 cm) across southern MB over the weekend. Highest amount reported from the town of Snowflake (appropriate) on the MB escarpment near the US border (north of Hannah ND) with 8 inches (20 cm). They received a little more due to upslope enhancement along the MB escarpment, especially last night with reports of 4-12 cm in a few spots.
ReplyDeleteGeneral snowdepths across southern MB now around 12-18 inches (30-45 cm). I have 38 cm (15 in) in my backyard now, a little higher than last year at this time (30 cm/12 in). YWG airport snowdepth sensor is saying about 20 cm (8 inches) in a more exposed setting.
On shaw 48 they are giving some snow amounts from someone in Charleswood!
ReplyDeletehmmmm......
who could that be????
Yeah, that's me. I started keeping official snowfall statistics for EC from my home back in 2004 when Winnipeg airport stopped its snowfall observing program. I wanted to make sure that Winnipeg had *some* reliable snowfall measurements to maintain its snowfall database, which goes back to 1872. It's a shame that a cold weather county like Canada doesn't maintain a consistent snowfall observing program at its main weather observing sites, especially considering the economic and societal impact of snow, and the importance of documenting any trends in snowfall data that may be associated with climate change.
ReplyDeleteI'm stunned!
ReplyDeleteA loss for words!
The east coast is just getting hammered this winter with one epic snowfall after another!
Round 3 anyone?
They've already had "Snowpocalyse" and "Snowmageddon".. what are they call this one? "Snowtastrophe?" "Snowblivion", "Snowvastation" "Snow-my-God-we're-going-to-die!"??
ReplyDelete"Snowmageddon... The Return"
ReplyDeleteI like that.. or how about "Son-of-a-Snowmaggedon" ??
ReplyDelete