Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Nice quiet weather for awhile..

The weather looks boring, but nice this week with plenty of sunshine and seasonal to above normal temperatures over southern MB. Afternoon temperatures will climb to the -5 to -8C mark during the afternoons, with light winds and a strengthening February sun making it feel even milder. Great weather to enjoy outdoor activities including the Festival du Voyageur this week. Long range models are hinting at some windy and colder weather moving in by the end of the weekend into early next week, but so far.. no major storm systems expected in the foreseeable future. Enjoy the nice weather!


  1. Justin H from Oil City11:54 AM, February 16, 2010


    You were mentioning that your site is recording ~500 w/m2 of incoming solar radiation.

    Are there any sites that show this information for cities like Edmonton? based on time of year? I'm curious about the sun's power this time of the year. I noted weak convection (cu field) over the Riding Mtns and near YQD last Friday based on the differential heating b/w Boreal and Tundra landscapes. Obviously it's going to get stronger as each day passes, but it'd be nice to see a nomogram or something.

    Hopefully you can help me!

  2. Hi Justin..

    The solar radiation readings I'm getting are from my bacykyard Davis weather station which is outfitted with a solar sensor. I don't have the most ideal setting due to nearby houses and trees, but it's pretty much in the direct sun between noon and 4 pm.

    You can check Weather Underground for any Edmonton area weather stations that may record solar data. I found one such station using a Davis Vantage Pro in Sherwood Park which gives real time solar readings.

    There may be others, but at least it's one site. Hope that helps!

  3. Nice day in Steinbach. Light winds and sunny skies. Temperature has risen to -3C as of 1:30, and should go another degree or two higher before the sun goes down.

  4. Nice SW flow has bumped temps up at YWG after a cold morning. Very sharp inversion set up last night (850 hPa temps of -4 to -5 C) with some lows approaching -30 C in eastern Montana with residual arctic air trapped in the bottomlands of major rivers. Bismarck still stuck at -14 C this afternoon. Meanwhile, downslope flow mixed down warm air from top of inversion at Dauphin and Portage keeping them quite mild last nite. Stagnant conditions/ slack flow and strengthening sun allowing local topography and land cover effects to become dominant once again.

    Studies have shown that changes in land cover have significant impacts on mean temperatures. One wonders how much warmer our climate would be if there were more woodlots or even just shrubs/ tall grasses sticking up thru the snow. Instead however, we have this unnatural tundra across vast stretches predisposing us to delayed/rapid melts and very bimodal seasonal pattern. Hopefully someone at Manitoba Agriculture will have the vision to see this one day... bleh, *end of rant*

  5. I hit 512 W/m2 at 12:41 today. This is a big improvment from the lows in late Dec. when we barley made it to 250.

  6. Bring on the BLIZZARD and the BONE CHILLING COLD......Oh wait....

    Remember what happened last time i wished for that....

  7. Accuweather wants to grant your wish Daniel P -25C w/SE winds next Wednesday and Thursday night . Snow and winds starting on Saturday Evening (Feb27) and lasting thru Monday Evening.

    Another Weekend Special Travel Statement perhaps?

  8. Looks like winter wants to overstay its welcome again this year...

    For tonite clear skies and lite winds are causing temps to crater once again at YWG. Will have to keep an eye on fog/low level moisture trying to build in from NW. Those clouds are associated with upper low dropping south thru Saskatchewan and will have a big impact on our temps (warm overnite lows).

    Then stronger, larger upper trough digs into eastern prairies and evolves into a closed vortex over the great lakes. Impressive cold core with 850 hPa temps between -20 C and -25 C. We will see if any snow band can get going as it rotates thru.

    Surface arctic ridge builds in on back side and skies clear... look for very cold condition starting on Wednesday to move in from Saskatchewan (-35 C not out of the question for overnite lows). Upper ridge develops late next week over prairies but we will be stuck with cold valley flow for quite some time as surface ridge departs.

    Then the fun begins....omega block sets up and energy moves in from deep trough over Pacific NW first days of March. Strong warm advection pattern and inverted trough set up in response to lead disturbance (sound familiar? lol). GFS suggests main energy consolidating south and cutting under upper ridge keeping most of the precip and juicy air well to the south.

    Will have to watch if upper ridge can set up over Great Lakes to deflect the energy towards upper midwest. In that case, we would be dealing with yet another 2 part system...

  9. Really slack flow next few days with little wind to mix things up. That means greater chances of low cloud and fog to move into Winnipeg/RRV tonight into Friday and the weekend. Cloud cover will also play havoc with overnight lows, as places with cloud will likely stay at or above the -10C mark overnight, while clear areas will drop to minus 20C or lower tonight (such as east of RRV)

    By the way, NWS Grand Forks will be releasing their latest flood forecast in Fargo tomorrow. Check their web site tomorrow for the latest outlook.

  10. New climate website from NOAA.. www.climate.gov (or click on my name). Interesting site with lots of good info. Check out the neat global climate dashboard..

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  12. GFS backing off a bit on cold outbreak for next week a bit more in line with GEM. Still think we may hit atleast -30 C either Wednesday morning or Thursday (or both *sigh*). Warm advection then begins late next week and will slowly erode arctic airmass particularly areas west of RRV.

    Isentropic ascent (warm advection)and long fetch of gulf moisture sets up as a large pacific disturbance enters western N Amercia. Inverted trough looks to set up somewhere over Alberta or Saskatchewan and drift east.

    Then part two... GFS providing some intriguing clues as to track of main low. Mid level circulation now depicted to track thru Iowa-Illinois-Great Lakes around Mar 4/5. The model is having trouble resolving surface pressure pattern (understandable since its 2.5 weeks out)... it has surface low down along gulf coast.

    Given stong omega block over N America anchored by strong upper low over NE United States and deep trough over the west - and that GFS show a decent 500 hPa ridge starting to poke up into midwest - Potential for storm to take a left (northward) turn seems to be there. For now this system appears colder than the others that have affected us this season, so we would be dealing with mainly snow. Any thoughts?

  13. Looks like we're stuck in an El Nino split flow pattern with a more active southern jet stream that takes storms through the southern/central US then along the East Coast while we remain dry through the end of February. Personally, I wouldn't mind a change to a more stormy pattern for us in March as this current weather over us is just too boring for me (but not too stormy.. don't want to make a tenuous flood situation worse!)