Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Quiet seasonable weather for the next little while..

The weather pattern looks quiet and stable over the next week to 10 days with no major storm systems expected across the Prairies or Northern Plains into next week. This is fairly typical for this time of year as on average, February is the driest of the winter months in southern MB. There may be the occasional weak system passing through from the northwest from time to time resulting in some light flurries, but overall the weather looks dry through next week. Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages through the period with highs around -10C and lows near -20C. Overall, a spell of pleasant mid winter weather coming up.


  1. Hi Rob,

    Seeing as not much is happening locally, let me ask you which online weather source is the best in your opinion for 10 day or two week forecasts for overseas destinations. In particular I am interested in China and Europe.



  2. Joe:

    I`m not sure which source would be the best for international weather forecasts, especially out to 2 weeks. All the main providers like Accuweather, Intellicast, WxUnderground will provide daily forecasts out to 7 or 10 days.. but they are strictly model output and accuracy is not very good. You can try the various national weather agencies of the particular country (see list at http://www.chmi.cz/meteo/rad/links.php) but these are generally more short term forecasts but with more detail and options. The UK Met Office is particularly good (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/) You can also Google the weather for the various sites and see what comes up.. often the list shows the most popular weather sites for that locality.

    Last but not least.. check climatology to see what normals are for an area. Climatology can you give you a general idea of what kind of weather to expect in a certain locality more than a week in advance.

    Hope that helps.

  3. What a temperture spike at 4:00am. It went from -28 at 3:00am to -20 at 4:00am and then began cooling off again. Thought that was kind of interesting. I see there were slight south winds so I would assume that they pushed warm city air over the weather site at the airport

  4. Daryl.. you're probably right. Here in Charleswood, I didn't have such a spike, as a light south flow is off open fields.

  5. Great site to follow the action out east.. www.trafficland.com has traffic cameras from all over the world with a nice interface to navigate from city to city. Great to follow the snowstorm on the east coast..

  6. Rob, on Feb 11 2009 you posted a NWS climate update Feb-April.(just after our nasty snow/rain event) on my name or see below.
    I believe a 2010 equivalent was posted. If so could you post it again. If not Is there a 2010 equivalent


  7. Rob I mean a Climate Update rather than hydrological update.

  8. Jim..

    I assume there will be an updated climate outlook out of NWS-Grand Forks within the next few weeks, but I'm not sure exactly when that will be. Dan-GF may be able to give us a better idea..

  9. Amazing numbers out east.. Washington DC is up to 55" (140 cm) of snow this winter, snowiest winter ever there (records go back to 1884) By comparison, I've measured only 62 cm so far here in Winnipeg since Nov 1st. Baltimore has a snowdepth of 33" (83 cm) on the ground and it's still snowing hard! They're saying things won't open until next Tuesday down there..

  10. Rob!

    Have you ever been on the radio station CJOB explaining the day's weather?????

    I'm pretty sure I've heard you before on that station....

  11. Justin H from Oil City10:43 AM, February 11, 2010

    Inverted Sfc Trough from weak southern system along with Cut-Off Low from the North looks to sit over Southern Manitoba this weekend bringing some accumulating snow. 4-8cm likely

  12. Yes Justin.
    It looks like a system will pass us on Saturday!

    Another thing to note is the strong winds that might come along with the snow!

  13. Looks like the southern states along the gulf of mexico are the next bullet for snow. Louisiana, Alabama, Texas, Georgia.. NOAA has heaviest accumulations near 6-8 inches! Otherwise just a few inches. Weather in USA is going wack this week.

  14. Saturday looks like a weaker version of the system that went through us last weekend. Justins's 4-8 cm estimate looks reasonable.. although models hinting that most of it will fall west of the RRV at this point. We'll see..

  15. Yeah.. the GFS had it pegged last week (!!). The unique combination of strongly negative AO and warm ENSO index is producing a bizarre pattern. Pieces of the arctic vortex are allowed to rotate south over central N Amercia (courtesy of the negative AO index) and interact with ENSO enhanced, juicy southern stream. This keeps producing large snowstorms as upper level energy gets into favorable dynamic (downwind side of trough axis) and thermodynamic (abundant low level moisture) environment. This next system looks to produce yet another low for the east coast although GFS shows it moving offshore and perhaps brushing the maritimes.

    The upcoming week looks cold as surface high builds down in wake of system. Fresh/ deep snow cover in the RRV will allow strong inversion to set up while conditions moderate in the forested areas to our east and high eleavtion zones to our west. GFS struggling to resovle exact pattern but general idea is for yet another vortex to strengthen/interact with a disturbance coming over the Alberta Rockies. Sure looks like round 3 at this point..

  16. Does it still look like snow (4-8cm) like some were saying for Saturday? I see EC and TWN are both just saying some flurries overnight friday into saturday morning.

  17. Looks like a dusting to 2 cm possible for Winnipeg/RRV tonight into Saturday with higher amounts of 4-8 cm over western MB (Brandon-Dauphin areas)..local amounts near 10 cm possible.

    Meanwhile, record snowfall continues to affect parts of the US unaccustomed to snow. Yesterday, it was Dallas' turn, recording over 12" (30 cm) of snow yesterday into last night, it's largest 24 hr snowfall EVER! Snow has now moved east into the Gulf Coast regions with 1-2" possible as far south as Mobile Alabama. Meanwhile, Vancouver, on the eve of the Winter Olympics, continues to be plagued with rainy and mild weather.. with lots of rain, low cloud and fog expected tonight through the weekend. GEM indicating over 100 mm rain/wet snow possible between Vancouver and Whistler over the next 48 hrs. Crazy winter..

  18. Justin H from Oil City10:47 AM, February 12, 2010

    Yeah...12z NAM model now shows the heavier amounts falling West of the RRV...looks like Brandon will be the largest city affected by this system in terms of accumulations/wind with Winnipeg receiving some snow.

  19. Rob, I know this is way beyond the local weather but I respect your knowledge so much I need to ask. Florida is experiencing one of the coldest winters I can recall. I'm planning a vacation there late March/early April. I know thats still a ways off, but just wondering if the issue is El Nino and if there's any sign of a change on the horizon? Thanks Rob

  20. Fargo's winter precip of 4.25 inches (as of 2/9)...is the most for a winter season since the records began in 1881.
    The next three wettest winters are:
    1896-97 3.81"
    1996-97 3.65"
    2008-97 3.58"

    Here is the latest info from our climate expert....his opinions at least... it will turn stormy in March:

    Speaking of breaking pattern, there are several atmospheric signals that are at critical levels. The GAAM is like a huge balloon ready to burst; there is another pretty strong Kelvin Wave about to energize the
    ENSO signal one more time; and the affects of the SSW will wane in about 3 weeks. That places us in the first week of march, at which time the climate signals are pointing to a return to a stormy pattern. Reading the composite
    tea leaves has been pretty tough this winter.

    Basically, the outlook is as issued last week; relatively boring weather
    with temperatures near normal.As we get into
    March I feel the story will change and become quite stormy for the
    plains again. The first big bump in precipitation
    is around March 4th.

    Using the composites as a guide I feel there are 2 distinct stormy
    period during the critical melt period. One is in the
    March 25th to April 2nd time frame and another in the April 10th - 20th.
    I know, pretty broad window but I need to
    figure which years are working better if I have any hope of narrowing it

  21. Dan GF
    How does Grand Forks compare snow wise to past record years?

    Excluding a record cold spell in February your crystal ball is shaping up very much like 66 ( Mar 4 blizzard et al( and April 10-20 breakup.) Dakotans will not be happy to see a repeat and neither will Central Manitobans. That one dropped almost 40mms of snow in Wpg and much more in the Dakotas..

  22. Jim will have to get back with you later on this...

  23. Thanks for the updated info Dan.. the prospects of a stormy March, especially around March 4th, are of particular concern around these parts. Two of Winnipeg's biggest snowstorms were on March 4th.. March 4th, 1935 with 38 cm (15") of snow, and of course, the massive March 4th 1966 blizzard that dropped 36 cm of snow along with wind gusts over 70 mph creating huge drifts. Could this year be a repeat?? Stay tuned!..

  24. Mark..

    As far as I know, the current El Nino is forecast to persist through April before a weakening trend this summer. So a general El Nino pattern should still dominate in March/April in Florida. By that time, they will be considerably warmer than now, however there is an increased risk of severe weather (thunderstorms/tornadoes) in El Nino winters in central Florida. But it's all in the timing. You can certainly get a stretch of nice weather while you're there, even during an El Nino winter/spring which tends to be a stormier pattern.

    You can find out more info about what El Nino means for Florida weather at the following link..


    Hope that helps..


  25. Rob, thank you so much. I really appreciate the information and advice.

  26. Hi Rob,
    I just wanted to point out that it's late winter :) I don't know why the flawed astronomical definition of the seasons still holds immense popularity in pop culture. Especially in continental central Canada, where early December is generally much colder than early March, and early June is usually warmer than early September, and so forth...

  27. Thanks for the Fargo info Dan. I was able to locate some general climate info which indicates Grand Forks is not near to breaking snow records yet.