Monday, January 19, 2009

Mild week ahead... then colder by Friday

The above normal temperatures that moved into southern MB over the weekend will continue today through much of the upcoming week with daily highs around minus 3 or so in Winnipeg.. some 10 degrees above normal. We may even get up to the freezing mark on Tuesday or Wednesday. Enjoy it while it lasts though.. because on Thursday, a clipper system will cross southern MB bringing some snow and a return to cold Arctic air Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures by Friday will return to below normal values, with highs around -17C and lows in the minus 20s. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend into next week as a large Yukon high pushes cold air southward over the Prairies.      


  1. A trough of low pressure may trigger some freezing rain over eastern Manitoba tomorrow morning. On Wednesday low level cloud ahead of a front boundary may produce enough instability to trigger freezing drizzle.

    Freezing rain will occur with any precipitation between Tuesday morning and early Thursday. The only exception will be if the temperature rises above freezing during the day, in which case it will just be rain.

  2. Very foggy this morning with freezing drizzle present!

    Looks like there will be 2 cm of snow tomorrow along with the arctic blast!

    Oh well.... it was nice to enjoy the warm weather while it lasted!

    To bad we got the short end of the stick here in the Red River Valley with much cooler temperatures and more cloud cover than to our west!

  3. Winnipeg lies just on the western edge of a large area of low cloud and fog over eastern MB. This morning it was -15C and clear in Sanford while it was -3C in the east end of Winnipeg with dense fog. Skies have cleared out over most of the city as of 10 am.. but the low cloud remains just to our north and east with dense fog still hanging around according to the webcam out of St Andrews airport just north of the city.

    But if you think this is foggy, pity the folks in Vancouver who have been stuck in dense fog for a week now under that huge upper ridge inversion!

  4. Rob!
    According to Environment Canada weather channel ( shaw 48) there has been 68 cm of snow recorded so far at 2 charleswood CLIMATE STATIONS!

    I was unaware that environment Canada has climate stations in Charleswood!

    Or are they referring to public observations????

  5. In addition to the official weather stations you normally hear about, EC also runs a volunteer climate network. This network is comprised of ordinary citizens taking weather observations (usually precipitation and/or temperature measurements once or twice a day) from their homes or places of business. I take snow observations for Charleswood and send them into EC.. so those are the Charleswood stats you see on Shaw.

    Unfortunately, EC doesn't keep official snowfall statistics from the Winnipeg airport anymore. That's why I volunteered to take snowfall obs from my place in Charleswood.. so that we could at least have *some* snowfall statistics in the Winnipeg area.

  6. Special weather statement for southern red river Valley for near blizzard conditions!

    Emerson down to 0.3 km visibility!

    Even here in Winnipeg it is getting quite bad!

  7. Close to a real blizzard out there tonight. Winds of NW 40 G 60, along with very low visibilities. Wind chill values will be around -40 by morning. If we had seen more snow, this would be an extremely serious situation. It is still dangerous, however the 2cm of snow that fell isn't nearly as bad as 5 or 10cm would be.

  8. The NWS has revised the flood forecast for the southern RRV. It shows a 90% chance of major flooding in Fargo, a 40% chance of major flooding in Grand Forks, and a 50% chance of major flooding at Pembina.

    Overall not a very good outlook. However the heavy snowfall pattern we were in has lifted, and we not see much more snow this year, in which case the flood potential would decline.

  9. Scott

    Maybe now that the heavy snowfall pattern has been lifted for our area maybe we'll get heavy snowfall. LOL. Most of the heavy snow missed us by 50 - 150 km

  10. You are right, the heavy snowfall missed us for the most part. However I have recorded 30.5cm of snow so far this January, which is 8cm above normal. That is actually quite a bit considering the average January snowfall is only 22cm. The snowpack is also above normal, although it still isn't a whole lot of snow.

    Mainly I was referring to the southern RRV. They have seen substantial snowfall as I am sure you are well aware. The NWS is reporting 2 to 6 inches of liquid equivalent across the valley, some areas have 4 to 6", and other 2 to 4". That is 50 to 150mm of water on the ground. The ground is already saturated due to heavy rainfall last fall. If all the snow goes at once, along with additional precipitation later this winter and spring we could be dealing with a 1979 or 1996 style flood. I don't think the potential is there for a 1997 flood. However if more snow falls this winter things could get scary.

    The models are showing an interesting pattern coming in for the beginning of February. It shows much warmer temperatures, along with a more active storm track through our region.

  11. This is NWS Grand Forks....and the various snow cores we have had come in from agencies indicate a general 1.5 to 3 inches of water over the northern valley with closer to 3 to 4 inches in the southern valley. Of course all depends on where you measure...sheltered areas would have a lot more compacted snow due to drifting versus open field areas. The beauty of snow depths...where location is key and certainly the state of the snowpack is never the same from one place to the next.

    That said...our local climate expert in the office updates us on his thoughts on the long term and he follows what Scott says in that pretty quiet into early February but getting more active toward mid February as southwest flow develops. Now intially the storm track may be south of our region....but he does expect a wetter than usual patter through March and a cooler and wetter period into April as well which are characteristics of moderate El-Nino's. He is closely following the analog year 1979 for the spring as a best fit. Of course this is all subject to change. He notes that what he was looking at did not show the strong cold airmass persisting thru December as long as it did either.

  12. oops...sorry for the error of course I meant moderate La Nina's... mid shifts :)


  13. Thanks Dan.

    I got my information a little bit off. The website shows 4 to 5" at the most, with most areas in either the 2 to 3 or 2 to 4" range.

    Keep us updated on this, the amount of water south of the border is one of the most important factors to determine flooding here.

  14. I'm really surprised that the winds speeds have been up so high today!

    In Dauphin MB they are gusting to 55 km/h!

    Windchill warning issued for southern Manitoba for - 40 C windchill.