Friday, January 09, 2009

A nice weekend.. then another Arctic outbreak next week

It looks like we’ll be enjoying some relatively comfortable temperatures this weekend with highs around minus 15C both Saturday and Sunday (some models saying we might even get up to the minus 10C mark on Sunday) with partly sunny skies and a chance of flurries Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will also be light Saturday afternoon into Sunday so those temperatures will feel even more pleasant, especially after this week’s minus 20C temperatures. By Sunday night however, an Arctic cold front will be dropping through southern MB, ushering in another Arctic outbreak for the new week. This cold airmass will be ushered in by a large Arctic high over the Yukon plunging southward over the Prairies Monday. This Arctic high has been bringing minus 50C temperatures to parts of the Yukon, so there’s plenty of cold air to our north to make its way southward. Although we won’t be seeing temperatures that cold here in southern MB, look for temperatures to get back into the minus 20s and minus 30s again next week, with the potential for some minus 40 temperatures Tuesday morning in some parts of southern MB. So get out and enjoy the weekend.. another Arctic blast is on the way.

For those of you getting tired of this cold weather, long range models are hinting at a possible warmup over southern MB by next weekend into the third week of January. It still a long ways out, but at this point, we’ll take any hints of milder weather we can!


  1. Right now I see the potential for a quick 5 cm of snow Sunday night followed by some wind that will usher in the nasty cold air!

    Where is spring........?????

  2. Where is spring?

    Spring is still a ways off, but a taste of spring will be moving into Alberta this week as a massive upper ridge builds over the West Coast. Double digit temperatures possible over southern AB by week's end if the long range models are right. They show some of that warmth spreading into southern MB by Monday the 19th, with highs getting above freezing here, before cooling off again by mid week. Sure would be nice to get some mild temperatures here.. altough I'd rather see a major pattern change to above normal temperatures for awhile.. not a day or two.

  3. As a long time layman observer of Winnipeg's weather, I have come to believe that we often get periods of weather that last roughly 6 weeks before breaking up; eg 6 weeks of much below normal temperatures followed by a period of normal, or 6 weeks of normal followed by a period of above normal.

    Not always the case of course but at least several times most years. This last year (2008) did not seem to fit that pattern at all.

    What do other people think?

  4. The GFS is showing a major warm up for the Prairies during the same time frame Rob mentioned. It shows Pacific air penetrating to the arctic ocean (the northern coast of the continental NWT). It also shows a non-existant arctic air mass over most of the continental arctic territories, meaning there is no arctic air mass to surge south. This indicates to me that a major pattern change might occur where we can expect several weeks of much above normal temperatures.

    If we can see that kind of warm up during the coldest part of winter I would be all for it. Should some above freezing temperatures occur in January it would begin a cycle of slow snow melt, which could dramatically reduce the chance of flooding.

  5. To add insult to injury .. we will have to endure 2 punishing shots of brutal arctic air in the upcoming work week. A leading piece of that Yukon high will be over us on Tues day morning as Rob mentioned and the main high comes in on Thursday morning (stronger with 1045 MB centre). A brief recovery with some snow possible between them on Wednesday.

    850 MB temps around -25 C on Tuesday morning... question is how strong an inversion can the high generate to get to -40 C at the surface. If we do not get much snow from the frontal passage Sunday nite ... we may 'only' get down to -35 to -37 C with our slightly degraded snow cover.

    By Thursday morning as the main high settles in... we will be on the SW periphery of an enormous cold pool aloft centred over NE Ontario and central Quebec. 850 MB temps look at bit milder (-22 to -24 C) but with a stronger high. So once again strength of nite time inversion will be key. I am hoping for no colder than -35 C.

  6. Right now I think Thursday will be the coldest day, potentially around -40. The models are showing a westerly wind, which could prevent Winnipeg from reaching as low as its rural counterparts.

    I expect Steinbach to reach -40 under the current forecasts. Steinbach has actually been one of the colder places in Manitoba this winter, and we have already been close to -40 (-38).

    I also look forward to the warm-up in the long-range forecast. Some models are showing 850mb temperatures as high as +10C.

  7. picked up about 2 cm of snow here in Winnipeg with the passage of the heavy snow band!

  8. Winter storm watch and blizzard watch issued for North Dakota
    With 2 - 6 inches of snow and brutal wind chills thereafter!

  9. Stillalive..

    Our current spell of below normal temperatures started around Dec 6th.. which puts this into our 5th week now. A pattern change next week would fall in line with your 6 week rule. A look at Winnipeg's temperature trace however shows it doesn't happen with any sort of predictable frequency. Abnormally warm or cold periods are quite variable in duration, sometimes lasting a week or two, sometimes 3 or 4 months. And as much as we'd like to get compensation for those bad periods, Mother Nature doesn't usually give us an equivalent "payback period" to make up for an extended temperature deficit or surplus.

  10. Nice little snowfall of 2-3 cm this evening.. no wind, snow falling straight down, temperature at -13C.. beautiful evening really. Almost had that "It's a Wonderful Life" snowfall look to it..

  11. Anyone see the potential for blizzard conditions tonight with the fresh snow that has and will fall along with the powerful cold front that will be coming in ?????

  12. Looks like the best push of wind and snow with this clipper will be to the south and west of Winnipeg.. yet again.. from SE SK into ND. We may see some blowing snow tonight into Monday morning, especially outside the city, but I don't see blizzard conditions for Winnipeg.

  13. Latest GLB run shows a monster 1054 mb high over southern SK Thursday morning building to 1059 mb over ND!! Yikes!!

    On the plus side, GFS showing a more prolonged pattern change to milder weather for next week.. here's hoping..

  14. Poor folks up North In Baker Lake,
    Rankin Inlet, Arviat

    They are getting a monster blizzard that may last several days!

    From what I understand little if any snow is falling.....its just a wicked ground blizzard!

  15. What happened to the winds of 30 - 50 km/h for the red river valley???

    With the low pressure passing us to the south tomorrow morning I still suspect we will still have winds at least 30 km/h sustained!

    There is no way that it could be 20 km/h wind in Southern Manitoba and then 35 mph wind gusts right across the border!~

    Someone is gonna have a busted forecast!!!

  16. Snowing and blowing pretty good in Saskatchewan this evening.. 1/8 mile visibility in snow and blowing snow at Saskatoon, Swift Current and Kindersley.. conditions heading southeast into western ND.

  17. Looks like the snow tonight is going to mostly miss us unless it gets a good push east.

  18. Looks like we will pick up the 2- 4 cm with some convective snow bands heading into the city now!
    The wind is also just starting to pick up now!

  19. Whoa!
    Is the temperature ever falling like a rock!
    It is 8:30 am and it is still falling to -27!
    This airmass may be colder than Environment Canada is predicting!

    -29 C for a high on Wednesday!
    OH MY!