Sunday, January 04, 2009
Get ready for a COLD start to the work week
Monday will be back to work and school for many people who have enjoyed holiday time over the past two weeks. And the weather won't make it any easier to get back into the routine Monday morning as a very cold Arctic airmass moves in over southern MB tonight. Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid minus 30s tonight, with windchill vales of minus 40 to minus 45. Thankfully, winds will be dropping off tonight, with light winds expected Monday. But with clear skies, this will allow temperatures to drop to some of the coldest readings so far this season. In fact, last night the same ridge brought -40C temperatures to western SK including Saskatoon. Temperatures aren't expected to get quite as cold over southern MB tonight since the coldest core will be moving off overnight, however it will certainly be a cold start Monday morning regardless. Bundle up!
Posted by rob at 3:39 PM
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This cold pattern is unrelenting!ReplyDelete
We have been in a gridlock of cold air since about Mid December!!
Any signs of a change in the pattern??
Maybe a little.....?????
The GFS currently shows temperatures near zero degrees towards the middle of the month. Whether that will come true or not is always the question.ReplyDelete
I'm down to -31C already, while the airport is "only" -28C. Tonight will be one of those nights where the southwest part of the city is colder than the airport site thanks to a light southwest flow. A southwest flow has just enough fetch off the city to keep the airport site a couple degrees warmer than the southern part of the city where the flow is off nothing but open field. Had we had a light northwest wind, the airport site would have been a good 5 degrees colder by now.ReplyDelete
Hey Rob isn't the CYWG temp taken at the REDAC on the north boundry of the airport. I would have thought your "back yard" temp would always be higher than the A/D temp out there in an open field. Anyway, just curious. Chris in WestwoodReplyDelete
Yes, the airport site is at the north end of the field. But even so, if there's a light wind coming off the city, it will be enough to prevent the temperature there from bottoming out like it can with a light wind from open fields to the northwest. At my site, coldest readings occur when there's a light south or southwest flow coming in off the open fields to my southwest. It's amazing what an impact these open fields outside the city can have on temperatures within the city itself, particularly in winter.
In tonight's case with a light west to southwest flow, the coldest readings in Winnipeg should be in the southwest (flow off open fields to the southwest of the city) while northern and eastern sections of the city should be the "warmest" (flow coming off the city) The difference could mean a low of -35C in the southwest to -30C in the northeast.
OK thanks. I sure hope nobody hits -35 tonite!ReplyDelete
Just think, ... only 90 more days of winter :) Chris
We got down to -38.ReplyDelete
-34.7C at my site.. coldest of the season so far. Lots of -35 to -38C readings around Winnipeg this morning. Luckily there's no wind..ReplyDelete
Looks like a January thaw might be coming for early next week. It will be the big story to follow over the next few days.ReplyDelete
Warm up....I hope!ReplyDelete
Whenever it looks like the warm air is heading our way it seems to stall its progress and never make it here!!
All I see is a continued NW flow with
many clipper systems coming our way with renewed cold blasts after each clipper!
I know what you mean about that NW flow. However this warm-up comes with a clipper that takes a very northerly track, along the NWT/Prairie border. It draws a warm Pacific flow across the Prairies. It wouldn't surprise me if Calgary was 15 degrees under this pattern. Here in Manitoba I think the best we can hope for is a couple of degrees above zero, which would be very nice right about now.ReplyDelete
P.S. The GEM is showing a good dump of snow for southern Manitoba on Friday. Right now it looks like 10 to 20cm (local amounts to 25cm in the riding mountains) in western Manitoba, and 10 to 15cm for the RRV. It will be another interesting story to watch...This winter is turning out much better than last year!
Interesting to note the remarkably milder temperatures off to our south. Higher elevations in WC central Minnesota and NE South Dakota were between -10 C and -15 C. That somewhat ill defined arctic ridge seemed to not penetrate much into the US with a shallow inversion only down into the northern tier of counties in N Dakota and NW Minnesota. Goes to show you what a deep, fresh snow cover will do even without a strong surface high and when 850 MB temps that are not excessively cold (-20 to -25 C).ReplyDelete
The NAM and GFS are showing another dump of snow for Friday. 10 to 20cm is currently forecast south of the Trans-Canada. This system will be similar to last Saturday's Montana Low.ReplyDelete
Yet another round of snow is in the forecast for Monday, when a strong Alberta Clipper could dump an additional 10 to 15cm on southern Manitoba. This system might also boost our temperatures close to or above freezing on Sunday.
Active and interesting weather pattern continues..
Canadian GLB model takes this clipper well south of MB bringing most of the snow through the Dakotas.. hence only a 60% chance of flurries in EC's forecast for Friday. Ensembles would suggest a track slightly further north, bringing 5-10 cm over southern MB, but heavier snow remaining south of the border.. as has been the case over the past few weeks.ReplyDelete
It will be interesting to see how that system plays out.ReplyDelete
Weather is pretty darn boring right now, hopefully something will happen for the weekend...I think we are getting spoiled by having the storm track running so close to our region...
First Rob let me commend you on your knowledge and forecast accuracy. I have come to depend on your comments when upcoming weather events are anticipated and E.C. has proven to be unreliable. I am concerned however about comments lately by "weather buffs" who are hoping for major winter storms and bored by these 10 cm snow events. From everything I've read it seems we are already at risk for flooding this spring and significantly further snow accumulations will likely only further endanger us. While a blizzard might be "cool" if weather events excite you, I think we need to be mindful of the "bigger picture". The Spring of '97 was devastating to many and I for one hope to never experience anything like it againReplyDelete
Thanks for your comments. Believe me, weather buffs (and I count myself as one) do not wish any harm on anyone.. it’s purely a fascination with the forces of nature and a desire to experience it and understand it. In fact, it’s this interest that advances the science and allows for better understanding of what Mother Nature can do. We can’t stop bad weather… but we can certainly try to learn about it so we can better prepare for it. But your comments about wishing for bad weather are valid.. we should always be mindful about the consequences that severe weather can bring to society. I love a good thunderstorm, but when that thunderstorm brings torrential rain that floods my basement, or hail that destroys my roof, or tornadoes that tear down my walls.. then it’s not so fun anymore.
I agree with Rob there...since I am one of the main culprits of the weather speculation. I think speculating about forecasts is better than not talking about them, since it gives people a good idea of what is to come. Since we can't change the weather as Rob mentioned, it is better for people to know what to expect..good or bad.ReplyDelete
From the reports I have heard flooding is currently expected to be minor, since the snow we have is very dry. However I would wait for the official February flood forecast before I really got concerned...Otherwise if you want to know the weather listen to Rob, I am just an amateur who likes to speculate.
Hi again up north!ReplyDelete
at work at NWS Grand Forks this early Wed morning and going with a winter storm watch down this way for thu night-friday. our national center and BIS and us agree on potential 6 inch snow band from scntrl sask into ncntrl and ecntrl nd with some wind on the backside. speaking of flood potential...the latest very long range outlook from our River Forecast Center in Chanhassen MN shows probability of major flood in Fargo at 66.7 pct (30 ft or higher crest) a bit less farther north but who knows....
The arctic blast coming in early next week made me cringe!!!ReplyDelete
If the models are to verify then we could be seeing a few days and nights with BITTER cold air!
Guess what...There is going to be an inverted trough with this system...I don't think I need to elaborate further.ReplyDelete
Dan..Do your models show about 4 inches north of the border...if not how much do they show?
Most models are in pretty close agreement with track of main low and keeping main snow band say regina-estevan-to devils lake- grand forks or fargo. Also show a sharp cutoff to the northeast as often they do when winds are easterly from a dry airmass...with 4 inches mostly limited I think to areas from virden to just south of brandon to gretna with 1 inch or so maybe up to winnipeg-steinbach area. I did see EC forecast for Friday is sunny for srn Manitoba red river valley. I know they use computer driven forecast wording with little to no human input...but even canadian model has some pcpn right along border. But the GEM is a bit farther south with snow amts than I gave above. Off of shift soon and time for bed :)
Models starting to come in line with this event, pretty much supporting what Dan has already said .. looks like the bulk of the snow will be falling south of a line from Virden to Emerson Thursday night into Friday morning.. with little or no snow for Winnipeg and SE MB. NAM is most aggressive with snow amounts compared to GEM/NAM solutions.. nonethless 10-15 cm looks like a reasonable first guess for Estevan to Grand Forks area.. The snow keeps piling up south of the border!ReplyDelete
Where on the official E.C wx site do they "hide" their monthly weather summaries that I see on the shaw cable system like the one below issued for last month? Thanks in advance.
THE DECEMBER 2008 MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE WAS -19.3, ALMOST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS WAS THE COLDEST DECEMBER SINCE 2000 AND THE 4TH COLDEST DECEMBER IN 75 YEARS. THE COLDEST DECEMBER WAS IN 1879 WHEN THE MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE WAS -26.0
The models are really getting better...ReplyDelete
Last night at the 00Z run the NAM and GFS both showed 11mm for SE MB. Now 12 hours later, at the 12Z run the GFS shows 3mm, and the NAM show 0mm. That gives you confidence.
The WRF still maintains 5 to 10cm over SE MB, but it will be interesting to see what the run this evening shows. At this point it does seem like the path Dan gave is the best.
Those climate summaries that you see on SHAW are done locally by EC staff in Winnipeg, who just input the info directly onto the SHAW TV cable 48 page. There are no official climate summaries that appear on EC's website.
You can however find monthly climate summaries for Winnipeg on my website. Since 2002, I have been producing monthly climate summaries for Winnipeg every month describing what the weather was like each month along with the daily stats. You can see them at the "PAST DATA" link under "STATS" and click on any month..
Looks like the potential for a monster cold wave heading our way on Monday night and staying with us for a while!ReplyDelete
The wind chills on Monday night will be dangerous along with the brutal cold air!
Well looks like model data has shifted decidely south and the EC forecast for sunny on Friday may well be right on for srn Manitoba. We are dropping our watches for nrn valley this early morning and looks dry GFK northward. Darn it dislike having a forecast turn bad...but it happens.ReplyDelete
Just as well Dan.. you guys don't need any more snow!ReplyDelete
-30 C out there already as of 9:00 pmReplyDelete
I guess this is just a taste of things to come next week!
Overnight lows of -40 next week