Friday, November 28, 2008

Strong clipper to usher in cold blast next week

The weather has been decidedly benign over the Prairies this month, with many places still without a snowcover. In fact, take a drive down Highway 75 from Winnipeg and you'll see little or no snow on the ground by the time you get to Morris.  Likewise much of southern SK and southern AB remain snowfree. The lack of weather systems affecting the Prairies this month has meant little precipitation as well as above normal temperatures, especially over the western Prairies. Things will change next week however as an intensifying Alberta clipper tracks across the Prairies, bringing a band of snow with it, followed by a strong push of cold air behind it. 

Models are indicating this storm system will develop over Northern Alberta next Monday (Dec 1st) moving into the MB Interlake area on Tuesday (Dec 2nd).  The storm system will be preceded by a push of mild Pacific air that will send temperatures well above normal over the southern Prairies Dec 1st-2nd.. especially over snowfree areas. North of the storm track however, a band of snow will be moving across the Prairies pushing into central and southern MB on Tuesday. At this point, models are indicating the bulk of the snow (10-15 cm) will fall mainly north of Winnipeg through the Interlake area and central MB. However, the snow could push further south with a more southern storm track. As the storm moves east into Ontario, cold northwest winds behind it will draw much colder air from the Arctic over southern MB, bringing temperatures into the minus teens for mid to late week, into next weekend.     


  1. Rob ...
    you are right....November has been overall a very dull month.
    I for one will be praying for this snowstorm so we get something to talk about in the blogs!!!

  2. I for one remain skeptical about the prospects of a major winter storm for us next week. The models have consistently shown a powerful low forming in Northern Alberta, but there has been no clear consensus as to where this low will track.

    However a blast of cold air seems inevitable, whether or not we see a big snowfall.

  3. Well the model runs from this evening are looking good if you want some heavy snow, strong winds, and cold blast!!
    By Monday morning Environment Canada will most likely be issuing some sort of weather statements for Manitoba IF the models verify~~~!!!

  4. Just based on the current data here is my conclusion (based on someone biased towards wanting heavy snow!):

    Heavy Snow: Still looks highly unlikely. The storm still appears as though it will track through the Interlake, spreading the major snow into that region and North. Currently 2 to 4cm may even be a stretch in Southern Manitoba, but I still wouldn't rule anything out.

    Strong Winds: We will probably get up to NW 40 G 60 on Wednesday, but not much higher than that.

    Cold Blast: This is the most likely parameter, as any strong system will open the door to an arctic blast as it exits. Right now several days in the -20s are possible for snow covered areas, -30 looks possible, but unlikely (for Friday morning). Of course this is the low temperature, highs will probably be in the -10 to -15 range.

  5. The chances of heavy snow with this storm are looking less likely as of Sunday morning!

    But the cold gosh
    The cold air mass behind this system is looking colder and colder every time I look at it!

    It not a matter if we get cold behind this's how LOW can we go!!
    Overnight lows of (-20 to -25) are not out of the question!

  6. well one thing I learned today is that you just never know what weather will be like until the last minute.
    I mean look at Environment Canada forecast for Winnipeg
    First it was flurries ending near noon....
    Second light snow 2 cm for the 11:00 Am update....(system stronger that expected)
    Then 4:00 pm update...light snow ending this evening!!!
    7:47 update...another 2cm.....snow that just formed out of nowhere....
    I feel Environment's pain forecasting this system...

    I mean I left Elie this evening and it was clear skies...just clouded over in St Francois Xavier
    and started to snow only when I hit the perimeter highway....

  7. I am predicting 1-4cm for Southern Manitoba on Tuesday. Brandon will likely see trace to 1cm. Winnipeg 1-2cm. Steinbach 2cm. Eastern regions like Whiteshell will see 2 to 4cm.

    Strong North-West winds on Wednesday may create reduce visibility on highways. I don't anticipate anywhere near blizzard conditions, but substantial blowing and drifting snow is almost certain.

  8. CBC Winnipeg's John Sauder is predicting 5 to 10cm of snow for Winnipeg on Tuesday, maybe there is still some hope?

  9. Whoa!
    -20 C this morning
    with a bit of wind this morning the wind chill is -27
    Welcome to WINTER!

  10. Clearing skies and a light northwest flow out of a cold ridge allowed those temperatures to bottom out this morning. But we should be moderating this afternoon into tonight as a southerly flow picks up and warmer air tries to push in from southern SK. Unfortunately that "warm" air will be short lived for southern MB.. we'll get up to the freezing mark early Tuesday morning as our winds shift into the west, then temperatures will fall through the day as those northwest winds kick in. Then it's in the deep freeze for awhile.

  11. Rob!
    How does the prospect of freezing rain look for southern Manitoba??
    Are we looking at some significant accumulations of ice???

  12. Any freezing rain we get should be fairly short lived with minimal accumulations.. possibly an hour or two overnight with 1 mm or so. That will still be enough to create slippery roads, but not a major event. Note that models are indicating more of a snow/ice pellet mix for Winnipeg tonight rather than freezing rain but we'll see. Freezing rain being reported right now over northern SK ahead of the warm front. We should also be seeing gusty south winds of 40-60 km/h up the valley tonight as that milder air pushes in.