Sunday, November 02, 2008

Mild start to November.. snow by Thursday?

It’s been a nice start to November with mild temperatures and dry conditions. The mild weather is expected to continue for the next couple of days before a change to wetter and colder conditions by the end of the week. In fact, the GLB model is indicating the potential for the season’s first significant snowstorm affecting southern MB by Thursday. In the meantime, enjoy these next few days with well above normal temperatures in the low to mid teens and sunny to partly cloudy skies. Things will start to change by midweek as an area of low pressure develops over the Dakotas on Wednesday spreading an area of rain over southern MB.  As the storm system tracks slowly into Minnesota, colder air on the backside of the storm will change the rain to snow over southern MB for Thursday.  At this point, it’s too early to say how much snow we’ll get with this storm, if any, as things are still 5 days away. Some models are indicating the bulk of the precipitation will fall as rain over Winnipeg with some minor wet snow on the back side of the departing storm for Thursday. Other models (like the GLB) are indicating the storm stalling and giving us a significant snowfall Thursday.  At this point, all we can say is the potential is there for our first snowfall by Thursday, but we’ll have to stay tuned to see how the models trend over the next couple of days to have a better idea. My gut feeling is that the GLB is overdoing the snowfall with this system over southern MB for Thursday, but perhaps that’s more wishful thinking than anything scientific (it’s too early for snow for me!) Stay tuned..


  1. The models are still clearly in disagreement about precipitation amounts:

    GEM-Global: ..11mm/10mm......18cm/30cm
    GFS: .........43mm/37mm......26cm/25cm


    This storm has been in the forecast for quite some time now, the time frame in which it develops is the changing part.

  2. I also just noticed that we have now racked up three above normal months in a row! Keep the warmth coming!

  3. is there any chance of a heavy snowfall warning anywhere?

  4. one thing is for certain....
    It will be turning quite cold on Thursday and beyond!
    With a high of 1 C of Thursday (if that stays the forecast high)......

    Environment Canada will be pulling out there hair for Winnipeg's forecast trying to decide if will rain, snow ...or both!

  5. There will most certainly be a chance for a heavy snowfall warning if the current forecast plays out...

    FYI the heavy snowfall warning criteria is:

    10cm of snow in 12 hours or less, OR 15cm of snow in 24 hours or less.

    You are right Daniel, some meteorologists may lose some hair over this forecast.

  6. WOW
    The forecast high for Winnipeg tomorrow will be 19 C!!!!
    I wonder.... would that be a new record high if that temperature would verify~~~~

  7. As far as I could find 19 would be a new record. I believe the current record is 18.3C, set in 1903.

  8. Yes, that's correct.. 19C would beat the 1903 record of 18.3C for Nov 3rd. Certainly possible given the 15C air moving in at 850 mb and a southerly flow with partly sunny skies.

    Today was a real beauty.. 11-12C with lots of sun and little wind, which made it feel even warmer. Truly some bonus weather for this time of year. Hopefully we don't pay the price too much by Thursday! (latest model runs have steered the storm a little further south and east of us which could take the main snow out of Winnipeg..)

  9. I have a question I was hoping someone will be able to answer!!!!

    Which computer model ( GFS , NAM etc...) does the weather NETWORK use for their 14 day trend.
    Sometimes you have to wonder where they get their information from.
    One day it shows snow for 7 straight days and cold air...and the next day only one day of snow and above normal air.....

  10. Talking about the weather network's forecast.....
    Look at Portage La Prairie forecast for Thursday!
    The weather network website is calling for 20 -30 cm of snow for that day!!
    The long range is also showing some very cold air in here by early next week with highs of only -7 C
    Is the computer models overdoing the cold air or you think these temperature could happen????

  11. Daniel..

    I suspect TWN uses GFS data for their extended forecasts beyond Day 5.. They use Canadian model data up to Day 5. I'm not sure if they do some post processing on the guidance, but sometimes the numbers beyond Day 5 appear very questionable.

    As for today.. no question it's a beauty! We're up to 14C as of 10:30 am, on our way towards a record high today (current record 18.3C). We even have a shot of hitting the 20C mark with plenty of sunshine this afternoon. (Nov 3rd is the only day between Nov 1-5th that Winnipeg has not hit at least 20C since 1872..maybe we'll finally do it today) Upper air analysis shows 15-18C air at 850 mb over Red River valley this morning which should mix down with a good southerly flow. If this was August, we'd be seeing 25C temperatures today!

  12. Already 16.5C here. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 20C either.

    Looks like the blizzard is still in the forecast, it will be a very exciting week.

  13. Record high of 18.8C set at Winnipeg airport this afternoon. A few 20 degree readings found over southeastern MB today including Steinbach and Sprague.

  14. We got up to 21.0C here in Steinbach, what a beautiful day!

    I doubt it will get above 21.0C again today, it is 19.7C right now. The models show the warm air being whisked out of the RRV early this evening which,I think, should prevent higher temperatures for the remainder of the day.

  15. Models trending towards more of a rain event on Thursday for Red River valley and SE MB, before changing to snow Thursday night into Friday as storm winds down. This would keep snow accumulations down in RRV and SE MB to perhaps 5 cm or less.

    Heavier snow possible (10-20 cm) over higher elevations west of Red River valley Thursday and Thursday night (e.g. Pilot Mound area) as colder air and lower freezing level would give more snow than rain for those areas.