Friday, May 23, 2008
Showers and possible thunderstorms moving in Saturday night
The weather will turn unsettled this weekend after several days of sunshine and dry conditions. A low pressure system over the Northern Plains will trigger a line of showers and thunderstorms over western and central North Dakota Saturday, some of which may be severe. The area of showers and thunderstorms will move into Manitoba Saturday night, albeit in a weaker state as the storms diminish in intensity. Nevertheless, southern MB may get its first thunderstorms of the season Saturday night with locally heavy rain possible. Unsettled weather is likely to continue into Sunday with periods of rain, especially through the Interlake and western MB areas which may see 15 to 25 mm of rain by Sunday evening. This would be a good thing for far southwest Manitoba which has seen very little rain so far this growing season.
Posted by rob at 8:30 PM
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Looks like we won't have Woodlands radar most of today, and likely tomorrow as well as technicians make repairs to the radar's dome (some people just can't help themselves to use our radars for target practice) They hope to have it back up later today so we can track precipitation tonight, but they'll likely take it down again tomorrow. So you'll have to use Grand Forks and Foxwarren (Brandon)radars to monitor this rainfall event coming in tonight through Sunday.ReplyDelete
I'm surprised that the temp. is so warm considering that the cloud cover is so thick.ReplyDelete
Imagine how warm we could have been if the sun was out all day!!!
I WANT THunderstorms tonight!!!!!!!!
The cloud cover doesn't seem so think here in St.Vital- the sun is shining right through it.ReplyDelete
The current temperature at my house is 26.3!
Hopefully we can get some good convection move in here later on tonight!
Temperature has got up to 24C here so far today, I would expect it to get close to 25 later this afternoon as a sunnier slot moves in from the South.ReplyDelete
Dewpoints not all that great so far, but I would expect them to slowly increase today into tonight, and peak sometime tomorrow. PASPC is discussing the possibility of some severe storms drifting up from the Dakota's tonight. They say the risk is low, but say it will be monitored closely.
I would expect to see some thunderstorm activity, whether it will be severe or not is still in question.
Tornado Watch issued for the entire Red River Valley South of the border. I wonder how this plays into a Southern Manitoba severe threat.ReplyDelete
I am very excited with our prospects tonight. That line with tornado potential is moving almost due North, right into Southern Manitoba. Winnipeg isn't in very good line for them right now, but may see some activity from a line that is pushing through prior to "the big one". Steinbach could be in fairly good position for this one, but whether the line stays in tact is still in question. I will be up late tonight watching this one...EC may issue a severe thunderstorm watch later this evening/overnight if the line stays together as it approaches the border. The fact that the Tornado Watch goes right to the International border shows that there is good potential for us to see some activity too!!!!!!ReplyDelete
If you can't tell I can hardly contain my EXCITEMENT!
haha got a nice storm here about 20 minutes ago. I took some pictures and a video or two. Got a few bolts of lightning on film too, here's one video capture I uploaded.ReplyDelete
Hopefully we get more action!!! :D
Just thought I'd ask....ReplyDelete
Why does it say "Drifting Snow" on your homepage?
That line of storms from North Dakota deteriorated too much to be severe, although they could see put on a good lightning show!ReplyDelete
We had a reasonable thunderstorm pass through here too, some good lightning, but no hail, strong winds, or tornadoes (obviously). Dewpoint is between 10 and 12 degrees, which is good for storms tomorrow. Unfortunately Winnipeg looks to be on the wrong side of the system for any action tomorrow. High of 15 there, compared with 21 here. I wouldn't rule out thunderstorms all together, but severe ones look unlikely. Steinbach on the other hand is still forecast to have SBCAPE of 1000 to 1500J/kg by evening (as of the latest run). Shear and helicity are reasonable, so some severe storms could easily form. EC has Steinbach with chance of thunderstorms tomorrow, and so do I. I would suspect with this nice moisture boost and daytime heating some severe storms are possible.
I will continue to monitor the situation closely...That Tornado Watch in the ND Red River Valley came as a bit of a surprise to me. It turns out there was only one or two severe cells that actually formed in the valley, and one tornado report in the far South. Personally I don't think any watch was necessary, but then again I have been wrong before (I guess NWS erred on the side of caution with their first Tornado Watch)
That is an interesting point...ReplyDelete
One other thing I forgot to mention was that there was a HUGE forest fire South-East of Steinbach. I could smell smoke and see a huge plume of it overhead. If you checked the satellite at all today you would have noticed a strange "cloud" near Steinbach. That was smoke from the fire. That is actually how I first found out about it...then I looked out the window (amazing what technology can do to the thought process). Six water bombers were called in. Correct me if I am wrong but aren't clouds formed by volcanic eruptions and forest fires (i.e. smoke) called pyrocumulus, either way there appeared to be some clouds forming near the fire that were possibly the result of the smoke.
Rob and others is that statement accurate?
"Phenomena such as volcanic eruptions, forest fires, and occasionally industrial activities can induce formation of this cloud."ReplyDelete
Yup, you're right Scott.
I was also going to mention this fire just now. I checked ctvwinnipeg.ca 2 hours ago and it said the fire was 600 hectares in size. Now it's apparently 2800! Wow!
Anybody in the Winnipeg or SE MB area-did you see any ash falling from this fire today? I saw some earlier before the storms, seems like there's a bit falling now. still
.4 inches (10 mm) of rain in my 'plain-jane' rain
gauge in the last 12 hours.
Chris in Westwood)
I received 5.0mm in the last 24hrs...ReplyDelete
There is still haze on the horizon, so I guess the fire is still burning.
Temperature is already 16.3 and the dewpoint is 12, so there is good potential for severe storms. With daytime heating the temp should reach to about 21 (EC's high), and the dewpoint should stay constant. EC mentioned the risk of cold-core funnels today in extreme Southern Manitoba, with CAPE of 1000J/kg and good shear.
Yesterday evening around 8:00pm in West St Paul I was sitting outside and their was ash falling around me. I checked around to see if their was a grass fire in the area and could see no smoke. Could this have come from the fire South east of Steinbach, I guess the winds were coming from the right direction.ReplyDelete
Now that you mention it, I noticed small bits of white "stuff" floating down last evening as well, both downtown and at home in Charleswood. I thought it was just tree blossoms being blown by the wind.. but I guess it was that ash! Interesting..ReplyDelete
Southeast MB has the best chance for seeing tstorms today.. they're clearing out in Sprague and Steinbach, with dewpoints in the 15-17C range just south of the border. Sunshine should boost temps into the low to mid 20s there this afternoon resulting in CAPES around the 1500 range. Good low level shear with SE winds along and north of the warm front lying along the US border with strong SW flow aloft. Stay tuned.. hopefully we can get Woodlands radar back up by noon hour to monitor development..
Dewpoint bobbing between 13 and 14 degrees here. The sun has allowed the temperature to get up to 20 degrees so far, although I think the high could reach into the mid twenties (i.e. 24 or 25). It will depend on whether the sky can clear some more.ReplyDelete
Is that warm front forecast to move farther North? Also on the subject of severe storms...Is there a formula (that isn't too complicated) to calculate/estimate CAPE values?
What are the odds of some severe storms?
For those interesting here are some photos of the forest fire (you may have to copy the link in two parts):ReplyDelete
There was a large streak of smoke across the sky last night, and the air smelled hazy, and looked that way too! I could see the fire burning out in the distance, it looked like a volcanic eruption with heavy smoke billowing from the fire (as seen more in the pictures).
Looks like some storms are trying to from in the international border and heading NWReplyDelete
Looks like Winnipeg could get some thunderstorms around 3:00~~~~
Some large towering cumulus clouds have formed just South of my house. I can see them out the window! I can also hear rumbles of thunder in the background.ReplyDelete
Lightning strikes are showing up on lightning detection, and you can see a cumulus field forming on satellite in the clearer sector of the system.
As I type this the new satellite image shows some convection firing off in South-Eastern Manitoba...I hope it becomes severe! I appears to be developing rapidly, and with the good moisture just to the South and temperatures in the low to mid twenties severe storms don't seem out of the question.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Sprague and the Whiteshell...storms are looking good on RADAR!ReplyDelete
Yeah, and MVX is showing some rotation in the storm north of Sprague. I wouldn't be surprised to see a severe thunderstorm warning go out for that one soon.ReplyDelete
They even have PDS tornado watch for south of the border for Minneapolis area!!!ReplyDelete
Things have gotten really interesting!!!!
some cells developing SW of Winnipeg now, small so far, but something I believe may need to be watched closely.ReplyDelete
The best instability looks to be a line from about Highway 75, to Falcon Lake and South. The cells South-West of Winnipeg there are just on the edge of the most unstable air. My guess is that as they approach the Red River the will strengthen more quickly.ReplyDelete
I agree, they definately do bear watching!
Tornado warnings issued for a cell between St. Pierre and Morris...I didn't think the threat would get his severe today!ReplyDelete
A tornado was reported on the ground, I am very excited!
LOOK OUT SCOTTReplyDelete
That cell is heading your way!!
Judging by velocity scans from Grand Forks radar in GR Level 3, the rotation went through or very near St. Jean Baptiste.ReplyDelete
Hopefully theres nothing serious
I will be looking out alright, but in a good way. I think the severity of this caught the meteorologist a bit off guard. They mentioned the potential for funnel clouds and some strong storms, but a full out severe weather outbreak...I think that was unexpected. We are now under a tornado watch. Temp is 18, and dewpoint is 14, still good for severe storms.ReplyDelete
I'll keep you posted!
"Updated information..At 440 PM a tornado was reported near highway 75 and highway 14 between Morris and Letellier. The storm is moving east at 30 km/h and will track towards Dominion City within the next 10 to 20 minutes."ReplyDelete
Huh, near my grandmothers house.
I just took a quick trip out to an open field to see what I could see. So far it just looks dark over the horizon, you can faintly make out some large towering cumulus clouds in the distance.ReplyDelete
As of the 5:10 RADAR is looks like the storm is starting to form in a "mini squall" formation (don't know if that exists), anyway it looks to be growing in size. I would guess the tornado threat would go down somewhat, but the large hail and wind threat will go up by the time it reaches me. I am in a tornado watch after all!
That supercell is showing signs of "hooking the right"ReplyDelete
It is gonna be heading due east now!!!!
The supercell continues to keep going!ReplyDelete
Recent reports of funnel clouds have apparently been received by Environment Canada.
Looking from Grand Forks Nexrad radar, the velocity scans still show good rotation. Looks like its just gonna keep going and going until its moisture feed eventually cuts off.
Just checked radar again. Looks like yet another possible supercell has exploded to the east of the currently warned one. According to GR3, weak roation and 1/4 inch hail are the current threats from it.ReplyDelete
I my opinion it was a good start to the severe weather season here. How often is it that the first tornado of the year, also occurs on the first day of severe weather? I wonder when the earliest tornado ever reported in Manitoba was, I don't think today would be it by any means but it did seem earlier than average.ReplyDelete
Not directly related but I noticed it's warmer in Whitehorse, Yukon (25°C) than it is in Phoenix, Arizona (24°C) as of 10PM CDT. Don't see that everyday. :)ReplyDelete
Yeah, it was a quick jump into the severe weather season today. That tornadic supercell south of Morris today popped up all by itself on the north side of the low along an east-west thermal/moisture gradient.. even had a nice hook on it. Small cell, but intense. Reports say the tornado was about 100 yds wide with no debris noticed. It's a little early for tornadoes but not unprecedented.. we've had them as early as the first week or so of May in southern MB.ReplyDelete
By the way, a nearly stationary area of rain is giving lots of rain just west of Winnipeg this evening. The CWB Weatherbug site in Starbuck has picked up 45 mm of rain today, most of it between 8 and 11 pm! Just getting into the rain now in Charleswood..
12Z GFS showing a possible severe weather sequence Friday to Sunday in southern Manitoba.ReplyDelete
Looks very interesting!