Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Double trouble to end work week..
Two weather systems are poised to bring a double shot of precipitation to southern MB and NW Ontario Thursday and Friday. Both systems will form over the central Rockies and move through the Dakotas into NW Ontario. The first system is expected to bring precipitation into southern MB Wednesday night tapering off Thursday afternoon. This system looks like it will bring rain over southeast MB changing to wet snow over southwest MB. Winnipeg and the Red River valley is expected to be on the warm side of this system at first but may change to wet snow before the precipitation tapers off. Heavier embedded showers and possible thunderstorms may bring soaking rains of 25 mm or more over portions of southern MB with 10 cm or more of wet snow possible over higher elevations of western MB. The second system on Friday, tracking a little further east, will encounter colder air on the backside of Thursday's storm and may bring accumulating snow to southeast MB and NW Ontario including the Whiteshell and Lake of the Woods. An unsettled end to the work week.. with significant amounts of rain and/or wet snow to parts of southern MB and NW Ontario. Stay tuned..
Posted by rob at 9:45 AM
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Unfortunately, models now show a persistent trough behind Thursday's system, indicating below average temperatues for at least a week and perhaps longer.ReplyDelete
Latest forecast for Winnipeg calling a mix of rain, freezing rain and wet snow Wednesday night.. with 5 to 10 cm of snow in the forecast! Rain/snow line is close to Winnipeg with this system so it's possible we'll see some snow.. although I think we'll luck out with more wet stuff than white stuff with this system, with a greater chance of snow north and west of Winnipeg. But we'll see.ReplyDelete
BTW.. that high of 11 for Thursday is now down to +3. Quite the change..
Yes, I see the predicted high is way down. I am going for +8 in Lancaster as a morning high, falling to +4 in the afternoon. It should be all rain down there on Thrusday, but there could be snow showers Friday.ReplyDelete
Nice convective line of showers approaching the city.. I even saw some in cloud lightning with it. Gusts to 80 km/h west of the city as the line went through. Looks like worst of it will go over north part of city..ReplyDelete
a few more cells developing in parts of the convective line. The cells are closer to my area of the city (Near south perimeter in St. Vital). I got some pics and a video of the cells so far, more to come :PReplyDelete
I get so exceited about the littlest of thundershowers/convective showers. Imagine me when a severe thunderstorm approaches in Summer :D
That's good. I was hoping there would be a few showers and thunderstorms (primarily because I told several people there could be). The LI was projected to be about -1 for today and the dry air meant a lot of wind with any shower activity. Steep lapse rates and a dose of spring sun does wonders if there's even a little moisture around.ReplyDelete
Well I should have got my camera out today ( next time) to take some nice pictures of the storms!ReplyDelete
The storms formed to my south and to my north and then went right over Winnipeg!
I missed all the action here in west side of the city (Crestview area) getting only a couple drops of rain and thunder rumbles!!
I am very interested to see what will happen Thursday morning. I currently see the potential for heavy freezing rain over South-Eastern Manitoba. With slightly below freezing surface temperatures in the morning, above zero 850MB temperatures and heavy precipitation things could turn dangerous quick!ReplyDelete
I haven't seen the Friday system on the GFS or WRF what is forecast for that? Is it just the bottom part of the Thursday low moving North?
Scott, there is actually going to be 2 systems in the next couple of days!ReplyDelete
The first one is coming at us Wednesday night with heavy snow?????
Then another storms forms on thursday night with a cold backlash of snowshowers and wind thursday night into Friday!!
Two seperate storms in seems!!
Ok, it is had to tell on the GFS and WRF. The GEM seems to have things laid out a bit better. Either way it will a cold, stormy end of the week. It is too bad for the cold, but at least there is some good weather to talk about!ReplyDelete
Scott.. That Friday system looks like it will track further east so most of the pcpn will miss us.. and affect mostly NW Ontario with snow.ReplyDelete
As for Wed night/Thursday.. yes, it's looking like a very tricky forecast for Winnipeg/Red River valley. Precip type will be a challenge.. depending on exact track of low and how much cold air those northerly winds can tap. Thursday morning, we can wake up to rain, ice or snow.. maybe even at the same time!
I just looked at the latest model run, and it is leaning more toward snow for Winnipeg. It will be interesting to see what the next main run shows.ReplyDelete
Keep us posted on snow amounts. We may have to fire up the loaders and put the plows back on the trucks. What to do what to do.ReplyDelete
Winter Storm Watch issued for most of Southern Manitoba, excluding Sprague and a few Western Manitoba regions!ReplyDelete
I mentions the potential for all kinds of precipitation, including rain, snow and freezing rain. Portage and Brandon could wake up to 20cm of snow. Here in Steinbach we could wake up to heavy freezing rain, and/or snow, and/or rain. Unless I stay up all night I probably won't know until morning!