Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Heat Wave - Day 3

It's already 27C at Winnipeg airport as of 8 am, after an overnight low of only 24C, a record warm night for July 24th (and one of the warmest minimum temperatures on record in Winnipeg). I think we have a good shot at hitting 35C today provided we stay sunny all day. With dewpoints of 23c, that will give peak humidex values of 45 this afternoon, the steamiest day of the heat wave so far.

Tonight will be another warm one.. with a low of only 25C, maybe even 26 or 27C as we get a southerly breeze all night. If so, that will be Winnipeg's second warmest minimum temperature on record (warmest minimum was an amazing low of 28.3C on July 12 1936 following Winnipeg's hottest day ever of 42.2 on July 11) However, that low of 25C will likely not be the minimum for Wednesday. The heat-wave ending cold front will be coming through by midday, so temperatures will be dropping noticeably in the evening, likely below 25C by midnight.


  1. It was pretty warm here as well...it briefly hit 22 at 5:06 this morning, but it's roaring ahead on full sunshine, and I still think we'll top out at about 36 down here. Current dew point is 22, which is below the 25 we had yesterday at this time. Still looks like 13 Friday morning, so if the next model run agrees, I will drop my Friday low prediction from 14 to 13...not much of a difference, but I like to be as close as possible. Having to post my forecasts in degrees F is a pain because it's harder to hit the exact number...some people seem to think you can predict to the exact degree all the time. When CJOB does its "guaranteed forecast," the threshhold is 3 degrees C (5.4F) which is reasonable. Also, posting in deg. F means converting the model data, since the models run in deg. C, but if I only did my forecasts in deg. C down here, no locals would look at it because they can't convert the way I can.

  2. With today's slightly lower dewpoints and full sunshine, we should be able to beat yesterday's 33.6C high, with 35C quite likely. We could tie or break today's record high of 35.0 set in 1951.

    Amazing heat to our west and north.. Gillam in far northern Manitoba already at 34C as of noon, while Coronach, SK near the Montana border is already a scorching 36C

  3. Yes, the heat is really extending far to the north. Churchill was pretty warm yesterday, but that ENE wind has them at 19 now...boy wouldn't that feel good! Shooting for 36 here today...models are showing a high of only 26 on Thursday, with 12 to 13 for Friday morning...then we warm up, but not as much as this time. However, it may get rather toasty early next week (maybe 33 or 34 on Mon and Tue). You can always look at my web site if you want to know what I'm predicting down here. I usually update at about 4 pm.