September ends with another nice weekend..

Looks like another nice weekend in store over Winnipeg and Southern Manitoba.  (we’ve only had one wet weekend in the past 4 months!) Our morning cloudiness will give way to partly to mostly sunny skies today and nice temperatures with afternoon highs around 17C.  Tomorrow looks even nicer with sunny skies and highs of 22C predicted. (up from yesterday’s forecast high of 18C, that’s the problem with automated forecasts.. no consistency)   The only drawback with tomorrow will be brisk southerly winds in the morning of 30 gusting 50 km/h that will make those temperatures feel a bit cooler. Hopefully the winds drop off in the afternoon to make those 22c temperatures feel even nicer.  But hey, we could be doing a lot worse for October 1^st!  Get out and enjoy it!      

First killing frost

Had the season's first killing frost this morning at my place in Charleswood (and most of Winnipeg for that matter)with a low of -2.1C at 7:18 am this morning.  My weather station temperature plot shows the temperature went below freezing at 4 am, and stayed below freezing until 8:45 am.  That should do it for the outdoor plants, although my neighbours still have some nice flowering pots going.

The nice sunny morning we have will quickly fade behind thickening clouds to the west which will bring in some rain into Winnipeg by late afternoon or evening. Not expecting too much rain, maybe 2 to 5 mm, which will end overnight into Friday morning. Then it looks like a nice weekend shaping up with partly cloudy to sunny skies, and milder temperatures.. especially Sunday which will approach the 20 degree mark, a nice way to start off October!      

Nice weekend in store

After last weekend's washout, Southern Manitoba should enjoy a nice sunny and mild weekend coming up. Look for sunny skies and comfortable temperatures in the mid to upper teens.. beautiful fall like weather.  Saturday will see brisk north to northeast winds of 20 to 30 km/h that will diminish by evening. Sunday looks the nicer of the two days with light southwest winds and milder temperatures.  All in all, a fine late September weekend coming up!       

Looking further ahead, a cold front is poised to push through Southern Manitoba on Tuesday bringing in a mid week cold snap that may even produce some snowflurries over higher elevations by Tuesday night. Things should rebound again by next weekend with milder air flooding in from the west once again. 

If you're looking to golf, this weekend into Monday looks good, Tuesday and Wednesday look cold and unsettled,  Thursday should be OK after a frosty start, and then nice golf weather again Friday through Sunday of next week.

Sept 16-17 Rainfall reports

The following are unofficial rainfall reports from the Winnipeg area from the weekend rains of Sep 16-17th. Moderate to heavy rain began overnight in the Winnipeg area and ended Sunday morning with general rainfall amounts of 20-30 mm recorded.. the heaviest in the downtown area. This comes on top of the 5-10 mm that fell on Saturday. This is the most significant rainfall in Winnipeg since August 12th. Apart from the Winnipeg airport and Forks sites, the following reports are all based from private weather stations in the Winnipeg area and are thus unofficial.

UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL REPORTS (mm) - WINNIPEG AREA
SEP 16-17 (UP TO 5 PM SEP 17)

--------------- SUN --- SAT -- 2day TOTAL
YWG airport... 28.0 ... 3.5 ... 31.5
Forks......... 25.6 ... 7.0 ... 32.6
Charleswood... 17.8 ... 5.3 ... 23.1 (Rob's Obs)
CHWD 2 (PJ)... 16.8 ... 4.8 ... 21.6
Whyte Ridge... 18.6 ... 6.0 ... 24.6
Fort Whyte.... 33.5 ... 5.6e .. 39.1 est
ST Vital...... 30.0 ... 5.8 ... 35.8
Ft Richmond... 24.9 ... 7.6 ... 32.5
U of M........ 22.4 ... 5.6 ... 28.0
U of W........ 31.2 ... 9.7 ... 40.9
Deer Lodge.... 37.6 ... 7.0e .. 44.6 est
East Kildonan. 27.0 ... 6.2 ... 33.2

Stonewall .... 18.3 ... 5.6 ... 23.9
Bird's Hill .. 10.6 ...12.0 ... 22.6
Tyndall ...... 19.3 ...18.3 ... 37.6
Starbuck ..... 21.1 ... 5.9 ... 27.0 (Manitoba AG WX station)

Other rainfall reports from Southern Manitoba over the past 2 days from the Manitoba agriculture and EC weather station networks.

SITE ------- SUN SAT 2-DAY TOTAL
Arborg...... 31.2 17.1 48.3
Birtle...... 34.3 1.2 35.5
Boissevain.. 18.5 1.6 20.1
Brandon..... 47.2 2.2 49.4
Carman...... 14.4 9.8 24.2
Dauphin..... 45.5 26.5 72.0
Dugald...... 13.9 14.3 28.2
Emerson..... 4.0 7.0 11.0
Eriksdale... 20.9 6.7 27.6
Ethelbert... 37.3 56.9 94.2
Fischer Br.. 35.4 23.8 69.2
Gladstone... 35.8 5.7 41.5
Grandview... 10.0 17.1 27.1
Gretna...... 4.4 9.2 13.6
Hamiota..... 34.7 2.2 36.9
Holland..... 19.4 1.6 21.0
Killarney... 16.6 1.0 17.6
McCreary.... 69.0 21.0 90.0
Melita...... 11.8 8.5 20.3
Minnedosa... 34.8 5.0 39.8
Moosehorn... 21.2 4.3 25.5
Morden...... 5.6 10.2 15.8
Morris...... 12.9 13.6 26.5
Pinawa...... 22.8 19.4 42.2
Portage..... 34.0 9.6 43.6
Roblin...... 8.8 11.4 20.2
Russell..... 6.7 2.0 8.7
Sprague..... 2.0 41.2 43.2
St Pierre... 10.6 21.0 31.6
Ste Rose.... 30.4 8.2 38.6
Selkirk..... 16.2 16.1 32.3
Shilo....... 35.6 1.1 36.7
Souris...... 28.0 1.2 29.2
Starbuck.... 21.1 5.9 27.0
Steinbach... 13.2 12.8 26.0
Swan River.. 15.4 29.4 44.8
Teulon...... 36.8 10.2 47.0
Treherne.... 22.8 1.2 24.0
Virden...... 28.4 4.6 33.0
Wasagaming.. 29.4 7.8 37.2

It's raining in Winnipeg!

After 15 days without a drop of rain, Winnipeg and area has finally seen its first rainfall of September. Scattered light showers began around midnight Friday night, with more general showers this morning. Only about 3-4 mm of rain has fallen in Winnipeg as of noon today, but it's the most significant rain in 3 weeks. And for those wishing for rain, there's good news in the forecast as more significant rainfall is expected over Southern Manitoba overnight through Sunday as an unseasonably strong storm system intensfies over North Dakota tonight. This storm system is expected to generate lcoally heavy showers and thunderstorms over North Dakota which will move into Soutern Manitoba tonight. More rain is expected on Sunday as the storm system moves eastward and draws cooler air into SOuthern Manitoba. At this point, it appears that southwestern Manitoba will see the most rain with this system, with 40-60 mm possible by Sunday night. Winnipeg and the Red River valley will likely see less rainfall, with general amounts of 10 to 20 mm possible but locally heavier amounts under thunderstorms. All in all, it's the best chance of seeing some much needed rain in Winnipeg area in over a month!

Summer ends Friday evening

After another summerlike day today (29C!), Winnipeggers will get another two days of above normal temperatures before the summerlike weather comes to an abrupt end Friday night. A strong low pressure system developing over North Dakota will bring gusty northerly winds and rain for the weekend over southern Manitoba with sharply cooler temperatures. Temperatures will be steady or falling through the teens on Saturday in Winnipeg with occasional rain, while Sunday looks downright miserable with strong northerly winds, lots of rain (perhaps 25 mm) and temperatures only around 10C.  The cool (even cold) weather will continue into next week.. so get out and enjoy the balmy weather while you can this week.. because by Sunday, the wonderful summer of 2006 will be nothing but a nice warm memory!      

Beautiful September weather continues

Wow.. What an amazing start to September.. 12 days and counting with not a drop of rain. Today was one of those glorious fall days you never want to end.. Beautiful sunny skies, a light breeze, and afternoon temperatures of 27C with a few autumn leaves on the ground. As close to perfect weather as you can get around here..

The rain free start to the month may come to end in Winnipeg by Thursday or Friday, but certainly over the weekend, as an area of low pressure develops over North Dakota setting up an easterly flow of unsettled weather over the Southern Prairies. There's a better chance for rain over southern Saskatchewan and the Manitoba interlake.. but I'm expecting Winnipeg should see some rain by Friday. Whatever the case, the upcoming weekend isn't looking as nice as the first two September weekends in Winnipeg with cloudy skies, and a good chance of rain Saturday and especially Sunday.

Further south, look for summerlike warmth over North Dakota over the next couple of days with highs possibly reaching 30C in Grand Forks on Thursday and Friday.

Ash trees turning

Fall is in the air as the ash leaves are quickly turning yellow and falling these past few days. Most ash trees will be bare by the end of September.  Ash trees are nice, but their leafy season is way too short in Manitoba. They're the last to get leaves (end of May) and the first to drop them.  That's a whopping 4 months with leaves.. and 8 months bare.  I mean, why bother??

Speaking of leaves.. I'm hoping for some nice fall colours this year. (as short as the season is up here)   I've noticed that in dry years, fall colours tend to be more brilliant.  Hopefully that's the case this year..       

Another frosty morning

Saturday morning was another frosty morning over much of Southern Manitoba as temperatures dipped to the freezing mark or lower in many areas. Winnipeg was spared the frost due to a light easterly wind off the city that kept temperatures above zero at the Winnipeg airport.

Temperatures however warmed nicely during the day under glorious blue skies and light east winds that made afternoon highs of 19C seem even warmer.

More of the fine fall weather is in store over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure slowly moves east allowing a return southerly flow of warmer air to move into Southern Manitoba. Look for highs in the low to mid twenties through mid week before cooler and unsettled conditions move in for the end of the week.

Frosty start to the day

Temperatures dropped to the freezing mark over several areas of southern Manitoba early this morning in the wake of a cold front that swept through the area yesterday afternoon. The temperature at Winnipeg airport dipped just below freezing this morning for the first official frost of the season in Winnipeg, with frost scattered throughout rural southern Manitoba overnight. Areas inside the city and near the Manitoba lakes were spared from frost with lows of +2 to +5C (+3.4C at my location in Charleswood with frost on rooftops noted)

Cool weather will continue today with hihgs of only 15C expected.. but plenty of sunshine and light winds will make it feel more comfortable. There is a risk of frost again tonight but the weather will start turning warmer over the weekend with highs reaching the mid 20s again by Monday along with lots of sunshine.

Cooling off Thursday afternoon

The fine summerlike weather of September will give way to a temporary cooldown beginning Thursday afternoon as a cold front pushes through Southern Manitoba from the north. Thursday morning will start off much the same as September has been all month so far.. sunny and warm. Southwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h will allow temperatures to warm to 24 or 25 degrees by the noon hour before winds shift into the north by early afternoon. These northerly winds will tap much cooler air over central Manitoba, and our temperatures will likely be dropping though the afternoon to around 18c by evening. Temperatures will continue to drop Thursday night with a forecast low of +4C by Friday morning. Sunny skies and cool temperatures are forecast for Friday with highs only around 17C.

The good news is that the weather should be dry and mild through the weekend as a large ridge of high pressure dominates the weather picture. Temperatures will remain near normal with highs around 20C but with light winds and sunshine.. conditions will be ideal for outdoor activities. Temperatures are expected to rise above normal again next week as the ridge of high pressure moves east and southerly winds bring warmer air into southern Manitoba once again.

AUGUST 2006 HIGHLIGHTS

AUGUST 2006 HIGHLIGHTS

After the driest July on record in Winnipeg, some much needed rains finally returned during the first two weeks of August. Rainfall was highly variable through the city as slow moving and intense thunderstorms brought locally heavy rainfall to some areas of the city, but missed others. For example at my station in Charleswood, only 39 mm of rain was recorded for the month while areas in St Vital reported 93 to 144 mm during August. The bulk of the rainfall was recorded during two main rain events on the 10^th and 12^th when storms brought local rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm over central and southern Winnipeg. Drier weather returned over the last half of the month with only two minor rain events on the 25^th and 26^th. There were numerous sunny days making for ideal conditions for outdoor activities.

Officially at Winnipeg airport, 51.0 mm of rain fell during August, still about 25 mm below normal for the month. This made the summer of 2006 the third driest on record in Winnipeg with a seasonal total of 90.5 mm over the 3 month period from June through August. Only the summers of 1929 (76.7 mm) and 1886 (77.2 mm) have been drier in the city since record began in 1873. The 90.5 mm of rain was only 38% of the normal 235 mm that usually falls over the summer in Winnipeg. At my station in Charleswood, conditions were even drier with a rainfall total of only 72 mm over the 3 month summer period.

Temperaturewise, August continued the above normal pattern of the summer with warm temperatures through the month. The monthly mean of 20.1 (19.8 at YWG airport) was about 1.5 degrees above normal, and combined with June and July, made the summer of 2006 the 10^th warmest summer on record in Winnipeg. There were 5 days of 30 degrees or more during August with a maximum of 32C on the 27^th. This brought the summer total of 30 degree days to 23 this year (normal 11 in a summer)

All in all.. a terrific end to a terrific summer..

2006 YWG summer temps

Here are some temperature stats on our past summer in Winnipeg.. As a whole, the summer of 2006 (JJA) tied the summers of 1919, 1921 and 1936 as the 10th warmest summer on record (mean temperatures based on 1873-2006)  

 

        YEAR       JUN          JUL        AUG       SUMMER MEAN

 

1988	22.0	21.0	20.1	21.0
1983	17.1	22.2	22.5	20.6
1961	19.5	20.2	21.6	20.4
1955	17.5	21.7	21.3	20.2
1930	17.9	21.6	20.9	20.1
1963	19.0	21.8	19.6	20.1
1933	19.9	20.6	19.3	19.9
1995	20.2	19.6	20.0	19.9
1991	19.0	19.7	20.9	19.9
1919	20.0	20.6	18.9	19.8
1921	20.0	21.5	18.0	19.8
2006	18.2	21.5	19.8	19.8
1936	16.0	24.2	19.1	19.8

However, if we look at daytime high temperatures, this past summer was actually the 4^th warmest based on mean maximums.

	JUN	JUL	AUG	SUM_MAX_AVG
1988	29.4	28.0	27.0	28.1
1961	27.5	26.3	29.5	27.8
1894	27.9	27.4	26.9	27.4
2006	25.2	29.8	27.0	27.3
1983	23.3	28.1	29.7	27.0
1878	26.2	27.9	26.9	27.0
1936	22.7	31.4	26.3	26.8
1886	25.1	29.1	25.8	26.7
1910	27.8	27.8	24.3	26.6
1933	26.4	27.3	26.2	26.6
1995	27.1	25.9	26.8	26.6
1930	23.8	27.8	27.9	26.5

 

This shows that although this summer was quite warm during the day, nighttime temperatures were relatively cool and comfortable, with a noticeable lack of humidity.  This relegated the overall mean temperature of the summer to “only” 10th place.  This fits nicely with the overall dryness of the summer, which allowed for greater heating during the day, and sufficient cooling at night, almost like a desert climate.

 

A look at summer mean temperatures since 1873 shows that overall summer temperatures peaked in the late 1930s (after the hot dust bowl years) and again in the early 60s.  Since then, our summer temperatures have been fairly flat with no real warming or cooling trends.  One thing that is more evident however these past 25 years is the variability of our summers.. there seems to be wider swings in our summer weather year after year compared to before. For example, our record dry summer this year comes after one of our wettest summers last year, which came after the coldest summer on record in 2004, which came after a warm dry summer in 2003.  In addition Winnipeg’s two warmest summers and two coldest summers since 1873 have all been recorded within the past 25 years.  This lends some credence to the climate change theory that supports a more extreme and variable climate.    

Nice start to September

September is off to a fabulous start over southern Manitoba as a large ridge of high pressure dominates the Prairies.  Sunny skies and warm temperatures will persist through the holiday weekend along with light winds. The fine weather is expected to continue through the upcoming week. Note that the forecast high of 18 for Winnipeg on Wednesday looks a little on the cool side based on current guidance which suggests little change to the weather pattern all week. Some cooler air is likely over northern Manitoba on Wednesday but southern Manitoba should still see highs in the low twenties.

 

All in all, a great week or golfing or any other outdoor activities!      

Welcome to September!

Well, after one of our driest and warmest summers on record, September has finally arrived here in Southern Manitoba.. but the weather is still nice. A bit of a cooldown today but still dry with sunshine. And if the guidance is correct, it looks like sunny dry and warm weather will continue right through the first week of September into the second week. Models are indicating a persistent upper ridge over Alberta/Saskatchewan with high pressure dominating at the surface over Manitoba. That means dry weather, and temperatures above normal through the period. A great way to start September, especially if you're not ready to let go of summer yet!