A spring storm system over the Dakotas is spreading a wide swath of snow..
heavy at times.. across North Dakota this morning with near blizzard conditions being reported this morning over south-central parts of the state. Snow from this system is expected to spread northeast towards Grand Forks by this afternoon reaching the Canadian border by late afternoon or evening. The storm will continue to track across northern Minnesota tonight pushing snow across far southern MB.. especially south and east of Winnipeg. As the storm moves east Monday, snow will gradually taper off over southern Manitoba through the day.
 |
24hr snowfall map from RGEM
valid to 1 pm Monday Apr 15th
15-30 cm of snow possible over ND
with 2-10 cm over southern MB |
At this time, it appears that total snowfall accumulations from this storm will be highest across
North Dakota with amounts of 15-30 cm possible by Monday afternoon, especially from Grand Forks - southward. Snowfall amounts will drop off north of the international border, with 5-10 cm expected over the southern RRV and SE MB, and about 2-5 cm for Winnipeg. The bulk of the snow in Winnipeg is expected between midnight tonight and noon Monday, so the Monday morning commute may be dealing with some snow, although roads should be mainly wet due to temperatures near the freezing mark, at least in the city. Some snow covered and slippery roads are possible over the southern RRV and SE MB where snow will be heavier.
How this storm will affect the Red River flood outlook remains to be seen depending on how much snow falls over eastern North Dakota, and what the water equivalent of the snowfall is. Needless to say, additional moisture will only elevate the flooding potential on the Red, especially since the bulk of the snow is falling over the upstream portions of the river in North Dakota at a critical time. For flooding information for North Dakota, consult their
NWS hydrological website.
UPDATE: 7 am Monday morning. Snow pushed into Winnipeg by 5 am and has become moderate to heavy over the past 2 hours as a strong snow band moves over the city. As of 7 am, I had picked up 4 cm of new snow, and it was still snowing. Looks like Winnipeg could be seeing 5-10 cm from this system before snow tapers off this afternoon.
only 2-5 CM for winnipeg, i was praying to get more like 10-15.
ReplyDeleteRob, do you think we will get any snow from the Colorado on thurday? if so how much?
ReplyDeleteI for one won't be too disappointed if we dodge this snowfall. The faster we can get rid of this snowpack .. the better!
ReplyDeleteAs for that Colorado low later this week, most models are tracking it across Lake Superior at this time, which would be far enough east to bring main impacts east of southern Manitoba. However it looks like a potent system so it bears watching to see if there's any westward trend.
With a slower storm system, we're benefitting with more sunshine today along with east winds. Temperatures already up to +4c at my place, and +1 at the airport which will help make today the warmest day of the year so far. Question is... will the airport hit +5c today?
ReplyDeleteJust realized the UV index for today is forecast to be 6! Nice tanning day!
ReplyDeleteI'm disappointed too we missed this storm. Typical
ReplyDeleteLOL. Forecast.io is saying it's -4 right now (actually is +2), and forecasting a high of 0C. I discovered their displayed current conditions are actually from their forecast model, not the real weather. Trying to make it seem like they have live weather, but it backfires too often.
ReplyDeleteOh well, we had enough storms this winter, and still have the flood(s) to look forward to.
ReplyDeleteTemperature stuck at +2C at YWG airport as northeast wind strengthens ahead of ND storm system. As a result, looks like our sub +5C streak will continue for the foreseeable future. At least we have one claim to fame for this ridiculous month.
ReplyDeleteLatest giudance has nudged snow shield a bit north from last night's run, but bulk remains south of US border. Still looking at about 5 cm for Winnipeg, with 10 cm closer to the US and Ontario borders.
I never get sick of storms :)
ReplyDelete16" (40 cm) of snow being reported in the Bismarck area.. I-94 shut down from Jamestown to Montana border. Snow just south of Grand Forks moving slowly northward..
ReplyDeletehey rob is there any hope of more than just 5 CM tonight?????? i've gotten used to these snowstorms and getting just 5CM compared to 17 CM is not very much. also thinking a few days ago your gonna get 10-15 centimeters then just getting 5 CM is very disappointing. my spelling is very bad, sorry.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we'll be seeing more than 5 cm from this system based on what's happening south of the border. Snow has been very slow to move northward, and still hasn't reached the intl border as of 7 pm. With the upper low tracking well to our southeast, that should keep the bulk of the snow to the south and east of Winnipeg, although we will still see some snow overnight into Monday.. but I don't see much more than 5 cm. It's possible we could see a bit more if we get under a heavier band wrapping around on the backside of the storm, but that would be a fairly narrow axis.
ReplyDeleteNice snow melt today.. my snow depth dropped from 31 to 26 cm. Hopefully we don't make it all up again by tomorrow morning!
ReplyDeleteBy the way, a max temp of 3.7C at YWG airport today.. warmest day of the year! (6.4C at the Forks)
For those keeping track, today was Winnipeg's 35th consecutive day below normal (5 straight weeks) Our last day that averaged above normal was way back on March 9th. With another 1-2 weeks below normal we could be looking at 6-7 consecutive weeks below normal. I don't think I can recall such a long stretch of continuously below normal temperatures since I moved here in 1998. Truly exceptional.
ReplyDeleteIs there a known record for the longest consecutive number of days of below normal temperatures?
ReplyDeleteGuidance today has shifted that Colorado low system later this week further east over Ontario, so at this point.. it looks like a miss for us. Hopefully it stays that way.
ReplyDeleteLong range models also coming into better agreement on building heights over western North America and the southern Prairies the week of April 22nd. That's the first consistent signs I'm seeing that the below normal pattern may finally be breaking over southern MB by April 24th or so. Here's hoping.
Thank goodness. This has been the worst "SPRING" since '97. Sure can't wait until I can mow grass again
ReplyDelete4 cm new snow as of 7 am at my place. Looks like we got into a heavier convective band that has brought rapid accumulations over the past hour. Looking at radar, looks like we could pick up another 2-4 cm this morning.. so amounts of 5-10 cm possible for Winnipeg. So much for that snow melt from yesterday!
ReplyDeleteLooks like the Red River basin in North Dakota has received a foot or more out of this system. Some reports are saying an inch of water equivalent. Not looking good for the flood situation down there.
ReplyDeleteRob
ReplyDeleteIs the temp still going to go up to +1 today or are they falling now for the rest of they day as I see the temp was still in the pluses early this morning. If it does go to plus 1 will it change to rain or is the upper air still cool enough to support snow.
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteLooks like the Red River basin in North Dakota has received a foot or more out of this system. Some reports are saying an inch of water equivalent. Not looking good for the flood situation down there.
8:04 AM, April 15, 2013
Not to mention the models show that Colorado low hitting the same place with another 6+ inches of snow later this week.
Nearly 50 Centimetres of Snow in ND
ReplyDeleteCJOB News Team reporting
4/15/2013
It's a gross and ugly morning in Manitoba, but it's worse in North Dakota, most of which remains under a winter storm warning:
"It's let up a little bit, but it's kind of coming in squalls, so by the time it's over we'll probably see close to a foot here in the Fargo area."
Don Haney of KFGO in Fargo says it's even worse to the west:
"Bismarck picked up about 18 inches, our capital city as a matter of fact, so much snow there it's basically shut down the city, and it has cancelled the legislative session for today because conditions are so tough."
Hane says Lincoln, ND got 19.5 inches - that's just under 50 centimetres.
Moderate to heavy snow, blowing and drifting snow is expected this morning into the afternoon.
A section of I-29 was closed yesterday, but has since re-opened, however travel is still not
Daryl.. Temperature should hold steady around -1c much of today, with a brisk north wind. We may nudge back up to the freezing mark once the snow stops, but this won't change to rain... too cold aloft.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I'm close to 7 cm here in Charleswood now. Still snowing, but not as hard as earlier.
Gotta love (hate) how they take the most extreme value a single person measured in their back yard, and ignore the official reading only a mile away which has half the amount.
ReplyDeleteTalking about some values in North Dakota.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we "warm" up this weekend into next week, possibly getting back to normal next week sometime. Melt will be on in full force if this is the case.
ReplyDeleteHas. NWS Bismark posted today's snow total the greatest any one day record precious ly held by Mar 3, 1966
ReplyDeleteWow....E.C's day 6 and day 7 forecast are for plus 8 and plus 7 for Saturday and Sunday....that would be nice but I be that's those darn computer automated forecasts being too optimistic again.
ReplyDeleteWhat are thoughts on this Rob?
Unofficial snowfall reports out of Fargo is 10.8 inches and in Bismark 17.3 inches.
ReplyDeleteBoth cities shattered records.
>>Anonymous said...Wow....E.C's day 6 and day 7 forecast are for plus 8 and plus 7 for Saturday and Sunday....that would be nice but I bet that's those darn computer automated forecasts being too optimistic again.
ReplyDeleteYes, those Day 6/7 forecasts are based on modified ensemble forecasts which have some climatology bias built into them. Thus, they will trend towards climatology, even though models still show a below or above normal trend.
Take a look at the day 5 forecast which is based on the Global GEM model.. a high of plus 2 which looks reasonable. Quite unlikely that we'll see a 6C jump in one day with very little change in the overall pattern.
Rob, do you think those forecast temps of plus 8 look more reasonable next week if the overall pattern does change as expected?
ReplyDeleteSo it's official.. YWG still hasn't hit +5C, and with no prospect for +5C the rest of the week, this year will be the latest that we've ever hit our first +5C of the year, going back 141 years to 1872. The previous latest date was April 15 1950 and it looks like it will be another 5 days or so before we even come close this year. Truly extraordinary. Keep in mind that on average, April sees about 20 days above 5C.
ReplyDeleteThe next milestone would be latest 10C reading. Currently, that record is April 30th 1893, during Winnipeg's coldest April on record. There has never been an April in Winnipeg since 1872 that didn't reach double digits at least once. Normally, we see at least 15 days above 10C in April.
Coldest April on record in Winnipeg is April 1893 at -2.9C. As of the 14th, our mean April temperature is sitting at -5.8C, which is about normal for March. Given that the next week to 10 days are expected to remain below normal and we still have an extensive snowpack, we could easily be looking at coldest April on record this year.
Finally, latest loss of permanent winter snowcover in Winnipeg was April 26 1997 (snowdepth records began in 1955) Again, given the below normal temperature outlook for the next 7-10 days, we could easily break that record as well.
Given all the above stats, this is truly looking like the latest spring in Winnipeg in over 140 years. Hopefully, we don't see another one like it for another 140 years.
>> Anonymous said... Rob, do you think those forecast temps of plus 8 look more reasonable next week if the overall pattern does change as expected?
ReplyDeleteIt's possible we may hit +7 or +8C by the middle or end of next week, provided we don't get more snow before then, and the snowpack is allowed to deteriorate through that time. But it's a tough call.. it all hinges on that upper ridge building to our west, but not too far west that we still stay in a NW flow of cooler air. Sorry I can't be more certain, but it's difficult when you're basing forecasts on very long range models.
Today's snowfall of 7-8 cm at my place melted down to 5.5 mm water, for a snow:water ratio of 15:1 So the models did pretty well on the expected QPF amounts in mm, but I slightly underestimated the snowfall for Winnipeg thinking it would be closer to a 10:1 ratio for about 5 cm. That heavier convective band this morning led to enhanced snowfall amounts due to fluffier snow with larger flakes.
ReplyDeleteis there any chance that Colarado will hit us on wednesday; i've gotten used to this winter and i just love the snow! usually i don't so much but this year i've gotten used to it.
ReplyDeletethis blog is amazing its the best weather blog for weather southern mb.
ReplyDeleteBe sure to also stop by my blog "Weather In Southern Manitoba" (Click My Name) I know Rob is up on the rank's he has a lot more experience than I do but in the next several years my blog might reach the same ranking as this blog is at. Please stop by my blog at http://mikesobs.blogspot.ca/ I need so many more commentator's, If life wasn't so busy for me I'd update a lot more. I'll have more time when I'm a meteorologist in 6 to 10 years, I'll be taking someones TV weather job in the future.
ReplyDelete>>Anonymous said...is there any chance that Colarado will hit us on wednesday?
ReplyDeleteAll the main long range models are tracking that storm through the central Great Lakes, and have been pretty consistent about that track for a few runs now. That should keep main precip area to the southeast of southern MB.