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Forecast of Red River levels - Fargo
River is expected to rise to
major flood levels by Apr 29th
(image credit - NOAA) |
A long overdue warming trend appears to be on its way over southern Manitoba and much of the southern Prairies by the weekend, as a persistent cold snap finally eases its grip over the central continent. In Winnipeg and much of the eastern Prairies, temperatures have been below normal for
6 consecutive weeks, allowing an unseasonably late snowpack to persist well into the end of April, one of the latest melts in history. After another chilly night tonight, sunny skies and a southwest wind will push temperatures close to +5C Tuesday afternoon in Winnipeg.. a mark still to be reached this year at the city airport monitoring site. A brief cooldown is expected Wednesday as a cold front pushes across southern Manitoba with some showers or flurries, before a quick return to milder conditions Thursday. The warmup really begins in earnest Friday into the weekend as temperatures climb into the double digits for the first time this year.. the latest such occurrence in over a century. That of course will result in an accelerated snowmelt over the weekend, especially with temperatures remaining above freezing at night. Creeks and rivers will become especially dangerous due to rapidly melting ice and snow, and authorities have cautioned residents to be extra vigilant and keep away from these dangerous bodies of water. A brief cooldown is expected early next week before another surge of warmer air moves in for the start of May. As a result, area rivers will be experiencing rapid rises as snow and ice melts.. and in fact,
flood warnings are out already for the Red River around the Fargo area, where the river is expected to rise 15 feet over the next week,
reaching major flood levels of 32 feet by next Monday, with a peak approaching 40 feet later in the week. Get ready folks.. the Red is on the rise.
North Dakota Red River flood links:
There really is not nearly as much snow as it appears; I was going shopping at the bay in downtown- hardly any snow, the only snow on snow banks etc. compared to the 22 CM snowpack in my front yard in Charleswood.
ReplyDeleteRob, I notice that on Saturday it might be our warmest day of the year but also the GFS is showing some potential for CAPE levels over 400 J/Kg with marginally unstable levels. Any chance the low moving through on Saturday/Sunday could spark thunderstorms (though nonsevere)? Also How warm do you think it will get before the Day Saturday?
ReplyDeleteHere's a good satellite image of all the snow west and south of Winnipeg today.
ReplyDeletehttp://imgur.com/7aYVLka (or click my name)
Click the image to get full size
Very cool image Garth. Amazing how all the grid roads and highways show up so clearly..
ReplyDeleteMike.. Still a ways out, but model CAPE may be overdone on the weekend based on overprojected model temperatures and dewpoints. But I guess there is a possibility of a thunderstorm if we do end up getting as mild and humid as models are currently suggesting ahead of the cold front. On the other hand, the higher dewpoints over a melting snowpack may lead to extensive low level cloud and fog that may limit the amount of warming we get.
ReplyDeleteI'm very curious about Friday's high. The CMC GEPS ensembles are slowing inching higher with a mean around 8C, and a 0% chance of going above 9.4C. Meanwhile the public forecast has rocketed to 17C, which seems impossible. Likely somewhere in between.
ReplyDeleteRob, those satellite-images are available here:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/
They are also here, but it stopped working April 20th:
http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/imagery.php?extent=canada&op=fire&fireID=mb-000
Garth..
ReplyDeleteYeah, I was very surprised with that 17C for Friday, especially given that it's Day 4 from the GGEM which has been doing pretty well with temperatures during this cold snap. I suspect it's a good 5C too optimistic, given that we'll still be dealing with some snowcover.. plus perhaps low cloud and fog with that melting snowpack.
Speaking of which, snowcover is down to 12 cm at the airport (XWG autostation) and 14 cm at my place as of this morning. Quite possible we may officially lose our snowcover by the end of the month given the big melt coming up this weekend..
Well, it's looking like the ugly streak of not reaching +5C or higher temps will continue. YWG Airport is currently at 3.0C and it's not likely gonna rise 2C or more today especially since it's hardly risen this afternoon period. We are having a hard time reaching 5C now and all of a sudden 17C in 3 days from now, not gonna happen although it would be nice. My feeling is models are overestimating temps for Friday and the weekend especially since we still have snowpack and fog is more than likely gonna be an issue due to the melting.
ReplyDeleteRob, do you think temps on the weekend will be more in the 10-12C range as opposed to 15C-17C range?
>> Anonymous said.. Rob, do you think temps on the weekend will be more in the 10-12C range as opposed to 15C-17C range?
ReplyDeleteThat 17C for Friday looks unlikely given we'll still have a snowpack around.. but I do think 17C is possible by Sunday, as we will be losing a lot of snow cover between Friday and Sunday as temperatures rise into the double digits during the day and remain above freezing at night, while dewpoints also rise about freezing. That will lead to a tremendous loss of snow cover in just a few days and you will be amazed how much snow we're going to lose by Monday.
Looking at the visible satellite imagery, you can already see a significant deterioration of the snowpack in the Red River valley and SE MB with lots of bare ground showing up over portions of eastern North Dakota. The melt this weekend will make it easier to reach those higher temperatures each day, so I suspect Winnipeg will be seeing highs of 12-13C Friday, 15-16C Saturday and 17-18C Sunday as long as we get some sun each day. If we get stuck with a lot of low cloud and fog in the RRV due to the melting snowpack, then our warming will be tempered a few degrees. Otherwise.. I do think 17-18C is possible by the end of the weekend. Note that guidance is even showing 20C temps possible this weekend.. but that would be under ideal conditions with sunny skies and no snow on the ground. Looking at satellite imagery, perhaps some of the forested areas over SE MB would have a better chance of reaching that 20C mark.
What about the potential for thunderstorms? As such as the GFS is pointing at on Saturday and Sunday if we warm into the teens & possibly 20C. GFS has been consistent with that for the past few days, and I am not going to lie the march we had last year we lost our snow in the one week of 12+C temperatures so I think it's likely we could hit 20C. I'm trying to stay optimistic...
ReplyDeleteI personally dought very much that we'lle even hit 17 on friday or sunday because EC has been forecasting way to high lately. look at today they say 5 it only hit 3 at YWG air-port, 2 weeks ago on a sunday they said it hit 7 it only got to 3 at YWG and so on. The possibilitey of thunderstorms I personally dought even more that we will get thunderstorms on sunday; there is a greater possibility of getting fog then thunderstorms due to the snowpack still in allot of front yards, snowbanks etc. Another reason I don't think we'll get thunderstorms might just be the idea of thunderstorms and 17 degrees in just 5 days when its only +3 now.
ReplyDeleteJust doing some number crunching for our April..
ReplyDeleteAs of yesterday, April mean temperature at YWG airport was -4.3C.. and looks like it will be around -4C through the 25th which would be on pace for coldest April on record here since 1872. Then the big warmup begins. Given the expected temperatures through the 30th, the month would finish with an average temperature climbing to around -2.0C.. dropping this April to 4th coldest behind 1893 (-2.9C), 1874 (-2.7C) and 1907 (-2.1C) Would still be the coldest April in over a century though.
But I don't mind losing top spot honours for some spring like weather finally arriving :)
We had talcum powder snow sifting down in central south-west River Heights just now. About the finest snow I've ever seen.
ReplyDeleteCall me skeptical, but this weekend's temperature event seems too good to be true. OTOH, I'm going to be in Vancouver, so it cut be nature's cruel joke on me.
Updated flood forecast for Fargo... expecting a crest of 38-40 feet later next week, depending on how much precip falls next week.
ReplyDeleteYes, the forecaster (Greg ?) sounded very competent and experienced. He also said that the reduction in flow between this forecast and last only amounted to a 1% or less reduction for Winnipeg. It's significant for Fargo, but our crest is still a long way off.
ReplyDeleteDear Rob, I want to thank you for all the guidance and warnings you gave us this winter. Your forecasts were obviously over and above expectations. I want to just say how grateful I was for your assistance and knowledge.
ReplyDeleteThank you,
Manny
Manny.. Appreciate the feedback. Glad you found the site helpful. Although I do this as a hobby, I get great satisfaction knowing that people find the information here useful, or at least entertaining at times. :)
ReplyDeleteStrike up the marching band! Winnipeg airport officially hit its first +5C of the year today with a maximum of +5.5C this afternoon (YWG AWOS site). Thus, April 24th 2013 marks the latest date on record to hit +5C at Winnipeg airport, easily surpassing the previous latest date of April 15th 1950. Records go back to 1872.
ReplyDeleteRob, with the warmer temps over the weekend and a cold front swinging down sometime Sunday or Monday could there be potential for thunderstorms or not likely?
ReplyDeleteI've notice some rain potential Monday night and for Tuesday....Does that look like a decent rainfall or not much other than a few showers?
Welcome to the 5 C or better club Rob! (At Winnipeg Airport). Soon you will join the double digit club. If it helps you feel any better, wet snow fell again this afternoon across much of Southern Ontario, with some locales NW of Toronto getting 1-2 cm on the grass.
ReplyDeleteLatest dates to hit +5C in Winnipeg (since 1872)
ReplyDelete1. Apr 24 2013 ........... +5.5C
2. Apr 15 1950 ........... +5.6C
3. Apr 12 1884 ........... +6.1C
4. Apr 11 1979 ........... +5.2C
5. Apr 9 1974, 1965, 1936
>> Anonymous said... Rob, with the warmer temps over the weekend and a cold front swinging down sometime Sunday or Monday could there be potential for thunderstorms or not likely?
ReplyDeleteDoesn't look like much of a threat at this point. Could see some showers along the front but instability is lacking for thunderstorms, at least according to current model guidance.
>>I've notice some rain potential Monday night and for Tuesday....Does that look like a decent rainfall or not much other than a few showers?
The rain for Monday night into Tuesday is from a clipper tracking across the Prairies. Current guidance is indicating about 10 mm of rain for Winnipeg/RRV with this system.. with some snow further north in the Interlake. Imagine that? Rain! If we get it, that will be our first appreciable rain here since early November.
Okay, Rob you might be a little off. I notice the NAM is pointing to 1,000 J/Kg of CAPE on Saturday at 7pm. Any potential that we might see thunderstorms given the forecast of the NAM?
ReplyDeleteMike.. NAM is bringing up 15C dewpoints over the RRV which is contributing to those high CAPES. At this point, I don't see us getting into dewpoints that high to support such instability. But we'll see..
ReplyDeleteRob, I am certainly looking forward to the warmth in the coming days like everyone else no doubt. What do you think of our chances of us reaching 20 C on the weekend here in Winnipeg?
ReplyDeleteHi Rob:
ReplyDeleteWhat are you using as an official indicator of when our snowfall has disappeared? Your yard? Snowfall maps? Depth measurements from around the city? The reason I ask is because the snow melts unevenly and so it's hard to know when to call it.
Anonymous.. I'm using snowfall depth measurements from my location in Charleswood, as well as the airport sonic snow sensor measurement (automated system based on sound waves through the snowpack) I was down to 10 cm this morning, and probably dropped another 3 cm or so today. Airport was recording a depth of 12 cm yesterday. But you're right.. depth will vary greatly depend on your location and exposure. Many parts of the city appear snow free or almost snow free, while yards and forests still have a good amount left. Even in yards, the grass is being exposed in some places, while deeper snowdrifts still remain intact. The best you can do is try to maintain the snow reading at roughly the same spot, and note trends from there. At this rate, I suspect we will be down to no snow on the ground by the end of the weekend (except for some lingering snowbanks which don't count for snowdepth)
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said...Rob, I am certainly looking forward to the warmth in the coming days like everyone else no doubt. What do you think of our chances of us reaching 20 C on the weekend here in Winnipeg?
ReplyDelete20C is a stretch, but possible by Sunday if we lose most of our snow cover by then and have lots of sun. I see a some of the guidance is indicating close to 20C for Winnipeg Sunday, even the Euro.. so some models certainly think Winnipeg has a shot at it.
Flew into Winnipeg yesterday evening. Very interesting to see that the fields around Winnipeg are still about 50-60% snow covered but lots of holes in the snowpack showing up. The city by contrast looks about 90% snow free. Even most parks and open areas have very little snow now and it is only where there were bigger snow piles and in some shady spots. The airport itself is virtually snow free, with again only some snow piles here and there. It's possible that the snow sensor at the automatic station there is overestimating the amount of snow on the ground.
ReplyDeleteI see the warmup for the weekend doesn't appear as dramatic as was indicated the last few days which makes sense given the snow that remains over the RRV. Forecast high dropped to 12C Friday and 14C Sunday. Saturday looks suspicious still with a forecast of 18C. Normally you don't associate those types of temps with snowcover that remains. We may not have a significant amount of snow left but areas outside Winnipeg to south and west certainly have alot more snow remaining than we do. And as a result as noted in the FOCN45 YWG weather discussion the southerly winds over the remaining snowpack will likely hamper further warming thus temp forecasts for the weekend are likely 1 to 2 degrees too optimistic but either way, spring will finally arrive here this weekend.
ReplyDeleteWell, that sunny forecast for today sure isn't holding up. More than cloud than sun at this hour which is not a surprise. The cloud combined with the snowcover is holding back our temps I see. 2.0C at YWG Airport at 11AM. Not so sure it will even hit 6C there today with this cloudy day. In my opinion the warmup for the next few days is way too optimistic at this point. Still too much snow and a frozen ground to contend with at this time. Today is basically no different than what we've seen this month and all of the sudden bang, double digits tomorrow....not so sure about that. It's becoming more apparent that we'll see more cloud than sun over the next few days which would most certainly hamper any thoughts of 18C. Bottom line, the snow needs to be gone before we can even think of getting temps of 15C or higher. Even E.C. is skeptical about the extent of the well advertised warm-up by the models as they have indicated in the FOCN45 YWG weather discussion.
ReplyDeleteI think that 6 is a good bet today...and I think that the sun will prevail (note forecast says "Mainly Sunny"). Just a bit of instability over us now, is all.
ReplyDeleteWow, April 25th and we are still struggling to get to even 5C and it would be very surprising if we even got there today based what looks to be more a cloudy day than sunny unless this cloud cover clears this afternoon. It's basically another terrible day that goes in line with what has been been a terrible month. I find it really hard to imagine we'll jump 6 to 8 degrees warmer tomorrow than today just like that. I tell you the more this goes on the more this becomes unbelievable. I would have never imagined us getting an April like this one and hope to never see this again in my lifetime. I really want to be more positive about this but it's hard to be at this point. I'm being more realistic...it's very difficult to believe that we will suddenly at the snap of a finger receive temps in the mid to upper teens when there's still alot of snow on the ground especially outside Winnipeg and a frozen ground, with that said I really do hope it happens but we'll see. Either way it's still gonna be much warmer than this month as whole so whatever the extent of the warmup, we won't complain, we'll take it.
ReplyDeleteRob, do you still think temps will climb into teens over the weekend?
Those cloudy skies must be localized over the north part of the city then.. Only a few cumulus floating around at the south Perimeter here.
ReplyDeleteWell, it's looking like i had the right feeling about not reaching 6 degrees today. Airport nowhere near that mark right now and won't likely get there today which make you wonder about the weekend now. In fact forecast high for Saturday has been downgraded as well now to 16C as opposed to the 18C forecasted earlier today. All in all the forecast seems to be more realistic for the weekend now than it has much of the week. Seems like models are taking better consideration today of the hefty snowpack that remains as opposed to earlier this week. Even after this warmup, looking down the road it doesn't look that promising as the long range models are not indicating any sort of real warmup through the the first 3 weeks of May in fact euro has us below seasonal in that frame, so right now it would appear that we may not be done with colder than normal weather yet.
ReplyDeleteCrazy.. I don't get why the airport just reaches a certain temperature around noon then just stalls out the rest of the day. That's happened a lot lately.
ReplyDeletei am moving to india goodbye rob this blog is amazing i will try to get it in india.
ReplyDeleteAll the best weather guy! That's one way to get warmer weather!
ReplyDeleteWell, we struggled up to +5C today.. just shy of the RGEM's predicted +6C (which is well within margin of error).
ReplyDeleteRGEM is showing 14C for Winnipeg Friday, quite a jump as much warmer air moves in, with 925 mb temps climbing to +8-9C, up from today's -1C. Even if we take off a couple of degrees for snowmelt, we should be up around 12C or so tomorrow afternoon, and with lighter winds than today, it will feel much nicer.
One thing that RGEM is overdoing is the dewpoints, showing +10C dewpoints by afternoon in Winnipeg. Looking at current dewpoints, there's nothing close to that until you get to the Gulf of Mexico. More likely, dewpoints will be around the 0C range.
Rob, do you still like our chances of 17C or 18C temps this weekend?
ReplyDeleteAlso i've noticed a pretty chilly day to start May next Wednesday. Does that mean that after this warm-up we will go back to the below normal weather by midweek or is that cooldown Wednesday just temporary?
Models all over the place today for the high temp.
ReplyDeleteRAP: 4 C
GFS: 6 C
NAM: 10 C
GEM-REG:15 C
GEM-GLB: 16C
CMC-Ensemble: gives a 0% chance of going above 9 C, mean around 7-8C
Euro going with an unrealistic 17C today..
ReplyDeleteLooking at YWG's RAP sounding this morning, we have a lot of warm air just above the surface with 925 mb temps of +9C already. That would translate to an afternoon high of about +15C for us with sunshine. Yesterday, YWG hit +5.8C with 925 mb temps near 0C and a southerly valley wind, so I think Winnipeg's forecast high of +12C is well within reach today accounting for some snowmelt.
By the way, we stayed above freezing last night with a minimum of +1.3C at YWG airport.. that's the first time we've had a daily minimum above freezing since Nov 6th.
I'm down to 3 cm for my snowdepth this morning.. but it varies quite a bit from bare ground to areas with 5 cm or so of snowcover, so that 3 cm is more an average. Generally, looks like much of the city is pretty much snow free except for snowbanks and shaded areas. I suspect I will be down to a "TRACE" or "0" snowcover by tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteOutside the city, still have snow covered ground over the RRV but more and more bare areas showing up. Southwest MB is still pretty much white, so they'll be the coolest areas over the next couple of days due to that more extensive snowcover.
14C with sunshine and light winds.. nice! Looks like RGEM guidance was pretty good for today.. and adding 6C to 925 mb temp worked out well.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, this is our warmest day since Oct 16 2012 (17.6C) It's also our first double digit reading of the year, second latest ever occurrence of 10C or more behind April 30 1893.
Looks like another nice one on tap tomorrow with temps just as warm as today.. perhaps a couple degrees higher.
Will be interesting to see how the system early next week plays out. Some models showing a bit of instability in southern Manitoba on Monday night. Decent dynamics with the system and front so it can't be ruled out.
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeletesense it got to 16 today do you think we have i chance of scraping the 20 mark tomorrow?
Rob, Do you think thunderstorms are possible here in Winnipeg Monday night?
ReplyDeleteMax of 15.0C at YWG airport today. Adding 6C to the 925 mb temperature worked perfectly today.
ReplyDeleteFor tomorrow, 925 mb temps rise to 12-13C, so with enough sun, we should get to 18-19C by afternoon. May squeeze out a 20 if we get enough sunshine and winds aren't too strong. Beauty day!
Hmmm, that's not me again. lol
ReplyDeleteWonderful day. Too bad sudden changes in the weather gives me headaches.
Aircraft soundings out of Winnipeg show very warm air just above the surface this morning with temps of 19C at 925 mb. This should mix out during the day with models showing 14-15C at 925 mb this afternoon.. which would equate to a high of 20C in the city given enough sunshine. Let's see if we can do it!
ReplyDeleteRob, do you think this cloud cover this morning will clear out by lunchtime and allow for temps to rise quickly this afternoon?
ReplyDeleteNice example of mammatus clouds over Winnipeg right now. Area of elevated convection passing through the city. May see some raindrops before we clear out over the next hour or so..
ReplyDeleteHard to imagine temps will climb 9 or 10 more degrees over the next few hours with the cloud cover that doesn't wanna go away.
ReplyDeleteStarting to see more breaks in the cloud cover, with lots of sun to our west. Should see our temperature climbing more rapidly this afternoon, with 18-20C quite possible in Winnipeg given morning soundings and history from yesterday. Warmest readings likely to our southeast where there's lower albedo due to less snow cover and/or forested areas.
ReplyDeleteJust when we thought we might be done with the real cold and well below normal pattern, well no so fast....high of just plus 1 Wednesday with morning temps well into minuses Wednesday through Friday.....yikes.....what an ugly way to start May.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion so far anyway, yesterday was a nicer day than today or at least it felt that way. We had more sun throughout the day yesterday than we have had today and winds were lighter than than they are today which makes a big difference. I find that the southerly wind around 20 to 30 kmh today is make it feel cooler than what the temperatures indicates. So far 11-13C at 1PM. Still not convinced we will get to 20C today especially if that moderate southerly breeze sticks around through the afternoon but we'll see.
ReplyDeleteOnly 11 at YWG at 12:00, I don't know about 20 today with just 11 degrees at 12:00. theres a Definite chance of above 15 though.
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeletehow much rain are we looking at through this alberta clipper monday through tuesday? is there the possibilitey of wet snow mixed with the rain?
Brisk SW winds off the snowpack over SW Manitoba keeping temperatures cooler over southern and western RRV, while areas east of the valley climb into the upper teens this afternoon. Winnipeg is steadily climbing, although not as quickly as it could have been had our winds been lighter or from the southeast. Should be able to make it to 17-18C or so, but I don't think we'll hit 20C given our S-SW winds.
ReplyDelete@Box134..
ReplyDeleteLooks like we should see around 5-10 mm Monday night into Tuesday.. and yes, maybe even some wet snow mixing in Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Could also see some convection Monday evening with slight chance of a thunderstorm.
Too me even 17C or 18C is a quite a stretch at this point....only 15 as of 2:30 with more filtered sunshine now. Too me, yesterday was still a nicer day because winds were a non factor which made it feel more pleasant. As for 20C, I never had the feeling we would get there at all today. Too much wind and too much cloud cover this morning.
ReplyDeleteDon't get comfortable with the warmer weather folks because it won't last...it's back to the well below normal stuff by midweek.
Anonymous.. yes, looks like we won't make it much above 15-16C here in Winnipeg. The stronger flow today coming off the snowpack to our southwest kept our temperature in check today, while areas further south and east of us warmed up to near 20C (Sprague) or in the 20s over much of North Doakta.
ReplyDeleteOh no.. Not this again..
ReplyDeleteYesterday EC had 11°C for Thursday; today it says 0°C. Now let me guess.. Those 16 and 18°C temps for Friday/Saturday are fake as well... Please don't tell me we're going for coldest May now.
Is anyone else having problems with TWNs new site? I'm getting pages that are VERY slow to load, or don't load at all, maps with no content, strange forecasts (ie. saying rain will start this afternoon, with sunny skies).
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone actually like the new look EC website? Why did they get rid of the update button and drop-down of MB towns on their forecast page. If it ain't broke why mess with it? Love the new fat lightning bolt though -not
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said...Oh no.. Not this again.. Yesterday EC had 11°C for Thursday; today it says 0°C. Now let me guess.. Those 16 and 18°C temps for Friday/Saturday are fake as well... Please don't tell me we're going for coldest May now.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think those temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday look too cold. We've lost our snow cover now, and model temperatures are likely overadjusting on the cold side now based on the abnormally cold April temperatures. Hence, models are being fooled that conditions are still like April, which they're not. I think highs of +4 or 5C C are more reasonable for Thursday, with lows of -5C or -6C. Temperatures moderating by the weekend..
For those who follow Ensemble forecasts, today may be the 3rd day in a row that temperatures exceed what the CMC Ensemble said was possible (according to how CMC instructs people to use the Ensemble). They are useful to look at long-range trends, but for the short-range are too crude to be reliable.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, there are people at the Federal level (nobody here) who are using ensembles for national products related to emergency response planning (even for day 1 forecasts) in situations where forecasting extreme weather is most critical.
Rob, if we do receive thunderstorms tomorrow night as expected how significantly could that enhance our rainfall totals as in could we possibly receive 25 mm or more?
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said...Rob, if we do receive thunderstorms tomorrow night as expected how significantly could that enhance our rainfall totals as in could we possibly receive 25 mm or more?
ReplyDeleteAt this point, I'd say there's a low probability of getting rainfall that heavy (> 25 mm) tomorrow evening in the Winnipeg area. Band of showers with the chance of some embedded thunderstorms should pass through fairly quickly, which should keep general rainfall amounts in the 5-10 mm range across the RRV. That being said, there could be some locally heavy downpours that could give 10-20 mm in some spots.. but those would be more isolated in nature.
Models are showing heavier precip possible with that convection over eastern North Dakota Monday night, with RGEM showing a max of 29 mm over Grand Forks area tomorrow night. But models like the NAM and GEM tend to overdo convective QPF, often by double, so that's something to keep in mind.
Rob, given the current temps already at 13C or higher, do you think it's possible we could see 17C-18C temps today?
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said... Rob, given the current temps already at 13C or higher, do you think it's possible we could see 17C-18C temps today?
ReplyDeleteIt'll be a battle this afternoon between nice sunny skies and some cold advection from the west. Latest soundings from Winnipeg support 17C this afternoon, but we cool off aloft during the day, so that will slow down the temperature rise today and we may even just stay steady this afternoon. Perhaps 15-16C will be our highest. Still a beautiful day out there.. although a bit windy.
I see the risk of thunderstorms has been taken out of the public forecast for tomorrow evening for Winnipeg. I guess thunderstorm activity is no longer a threat for us here tomorrow night.
ReplyDeleteThunderstorm risk still mentioned over SW MB tomorrow evening.. less of a threat over RRV however still the chance of a stray cell rumbling through.
ReplyDelete