 |
48hr snowfall forecast from RGEM
up to 7 am Saturday April 6th |
A low pressure system developing over Alberta tonight will track into North Dakota late Friday spreading an area of snow across southern Manitoba Friday into Saturday. Snow from this system is expected to move into southwest SW Manitoba Friday morning, before spreading into the Red River valley, including Winnipeg, Friday afternoon or evening. Snow is expected to continue Friday night into Saturday morning before tapering off from the west. At this point, it looks like the main swath of snow will be over SW Manitoba where 5-10 cm is possible by Saturday, with amounts of 2-5 cm expected in Winnipeg. Snowfall amounts will be lighter north and east of Winnipeg. Colder weather will be reinforced in the wake of this system early next week with temperatures remaining some 10-15C below normal for early April. Temperatures in Winnipeg have been below normal every day since March 10th, and the below normal temperature streak looks like it will continue through much of next week as the endless winter of 2012-13 drags on.
Wow, is that more snow for Sunday? NAM and GFS think so... Not ECMWF, so let's hope that's a good sign!
ReplyDeleteEC forecast for next Tuesday (day 6) went from a high of -4 this morning to plus 4 this afternoon. It's a very bizarre change with an Arctic high coming in over a deep snowpack, with below normal temperature regime. Ensembles dont even show +4c as a possibility within the average spread . Ahhh, the wonders of automated forecasts...
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on the situation for Sunday. Could it be, more snow?
Yes, we could see another couple cm on Sunday according to the NAM and GFS. GEM just grazes us to the south while EURO takes mainly south of US border. System looks weaker than Friday's system, so it shouldn't be too much if we get anything.
ReplyDeleteRob can you rs-post the poll when snow will be gone I went for 3rd week of April ,now I'm thinking more like 3rd week of May ....keep up the good work !
ReplyDeleteKeep the faith! I'm counting on a turnaround in the second half of April. If not, Mother Nature is going to get a very stern email from me! :)
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, NAEFS maintains a very cold middle of April. In fact it now gives a 80-90% chance of below normal temperatures in the April 13-20 period.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html
I say let's go for coldest April on record. If there's one thing that would make up for this torture, it would be that. (But then, hopefully it warms up after that!)
I see that Tuesday's high is back to a more reasonable -2C, but once again, the last 2 days of the forecast (day 6 and 7) magically bounce to positive values of +5c, even though ensembles suggest highs closer to 0C. There must be a climatological bias being added to those Day 6/7 forecasts.
ReplyDeleteThe further we get into "spring" with these abnormally cold temperatures, the more likely we are to have a fast turn around and a fast melt, which could be bad for the flooding situation.
ReplyDeleteNormal daytime highs are climbing at almost a degree per day and yet the gap between what we are experiencing and what the normal is continues to grow.
Snow now in Brandon. Probably going to see the snow here in Winnipeg right around the drive home.
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said.. Unfortunately, NAEFS maintains a very cold middle of April. In fact it now gives a 80-90% chance of below normal temperatures in the April 13-20 period.
ReplyDeleteNCEP 500 mb height anomaly ensembles indicate below normal heights over Prairies continuing through mid April, even through Greenland block weakens by then as AO index trends positive. So it appears that it will be a gradual easing of this abnormal cold pattern rather than a nice quick jump to spring warmth. That's good for the flooding situation, but not so great for those looking for some warmth to come soon. Not that we should be surprised. As I mentioned in an earlier post, of the top 20 coldest Marches on record in Winnipeg, 18 of them were followed by colder than normal Aprils. Tough to beat those odds.
By the way, we have yet to hit +5C at YWG airport this year so far and doesn't look like we'll do it within the next 5 days or so. Last year, we already surpassed that 5C mark 30 times by the first week of April, and had hit double digit highs 20 times. The inability to warm up this year is almost as amazing as last year's early warmth.
Snow should be arriving in Portage LP within the hour or so.. pushing into Winnipeg from the west by 6 pm.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, Weatheroffice radar has switched to rain mode as of April 1st. Silly people think it's spring! :)
ReplyDeleteFor access to local radar still on snow rates, check my radar page and click on links to radar from A Weather Moment.
Rob when do you think the snowpack will dissapear given our current temperature trends? I hope it goes away before May comes around...
ReplyDeleteYeah the odds are against us when April follows a cold March. The big difference this year than most is even in some of the colder months of March in the past the snowpack had melted away for the most part. The way things are going i'd say it's pretty much a given that we'll start May with snow on the ground. No melting weather next week and in fact the Euro long range calls for a continuation of colder than normals temps into early May now. For as long as we have this snowpack we can forget warmer weather, it's as simple as that. I for one can honestly say that i am not surprised, being a Manitoban long enough you know that there's a big price to pay when you get a stretch of fantastic weather like we did in 2012 and this is it now. Past history would suggest that these cold patterns don't disappear just like that, they at times tend to drag into the summer. Remember 2009? Wouldn't surprise me if this turns out to be case in 2013. Does anyone honestly think that we'll experience a third straight hot and dry summer...Not around here. That would be a surprise. Let's all remember, this is a flood year and flood years are all the same, so 2013 is no exception. you don't get Spring in flood years and often not much for a summer either.
ReplyDeleteI guess even the 2-4 cm of snow was a bust for Winnipeg. It looks like the YWG force field has been activated once again.
ReplyDeleteI find it incredible how long we can stuck in these same old boring patterns; be it cold, heat, wet or dry... Wonder how many consecutive cold months we're going to have this time 'round..?
ReplyDeleteHow close that NAM is bringing that Colorado to us on Tuesday makes me uneasy... Please MISS!!
ReplyDelete2 cm at my place... although much of it melted on walkways, etc Snow depth at 39 cm. With apologies to Shakespeare, this is truly now the winter of our discontent.
ReplyDeleteOh well.. at least it will be +5 Tue and Wed, oops, I mean Wed and Thur, oops, Thur and Friday... ahhh, never mind...
>> Anonymous said... How close that NAM is bringing that Colorado to us on Tuesday makes me uneasy... Please MISS!!
ReplyDeleteYeah, will have to keep on eye on that one. Right now, most of the guidance suggests it will mainly impact areas south and east of Manitoba.. with the Euro keeping it well south. NAM has been having a tendency to overdo precip and spread it too far north with these systems, so hopefully that's the case here as well. But yes, will need to keep an eye on it. Could be a significant system further south with some severe convective weather.
hey rob i was looking at this tuesday system on different models, it looks pretty significant but manly south.:] hopefully we won't get anything.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I see NAM is going crazy on that Colorado low for Tuesday... deepest, and furthest north and west with lots of precip spreading into SE SK and srn MB. NAM is the outlier right now as all other guidance takes much more progressive solution on system and tracks it well to our south and east. Let's hope NAM trends towards the others instead of the other way around.
ReplyDeleterob,
ReplyDeletei see that the weather network says between the 12 and the 18 that there will be snow and rain mix. could this be a possible storm?
I really do hope NAM is wrong about this massive storm Tuesday. That's the last thing we need right now.
ReplyDeleteBut i agree it's definately the bigger outlier on this one right now as the other models have this storm weaker and much further south, so i certainly wouldn't panic yet on this.
oh and rob how much of a chance do you think of us getting 10+ CM of snow?
ReplyDeleteaccuweather definitely wants spring to come, they'er calling for the mid teens by the end of the month.
ReplyDeleteOuch, that NAM scenario could seriously impact the flood scenario.
ReplyDeleteLatest NAM looks even worse for North Dakota.
ReplyDeleteNAM has trended further south with Tuesdays system, but is still the farthest north with the precip compared to other models. Most take main precip thru SD while NAM hits ND harder. Good news is that it looks like southern MB will be spared... question remains how much US portion of RRV will be impacted.
ReplyDeleterob,
ReplyDeletehow much snow do you think we are in for today?
Probably similar to Friday night.. 1 or 2 cm. Most of it should be melting on roadways, concrete surfaces, etc..
ReplyDeletewoodlands radar indicates that it started snowing in brandon at 9:50, it probably be snowing in winnipeg by 1:00 or later
ReplyDeleteSPECI CYBR 071518Z 08008KT 1SM -SN OVC011 M04/M05 A2984 RMK ST8
ReplyDeleteSLP128=
SPECI CYBR 071509Z 07010KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC011 M04/M05 A2983 RMK ST8
SLP127=
METAR CYBR 071500Z 08009KT 6SM -SN OVC007 M03/M05 A2983 RMK ST8
SLP127=
oops! forgot to put will in my last post
ReplyDeleteWow...forecasted low of - 20C for Tuesday morning....unreal...will winter ever end in this town.
ReplyDeleteRob, do you think it will actually drop that low on Tuesday morning?
EC just changed todays forecast from light snow beginning late this this morning to light snow beginning this afternoon; i think my prediction is right
ReplyDeletein toronto it's going to 18 on tuesday, but showers. i am so so jealous.
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said... Wow. Forecasted low of -20C for Tuesday morning....unreal...will winter ever end in this town? Rob, do you think it will actually drop that low on Tuesday morning?
ReplyDeleteMost forecast guidance is in that sub -15C range for Tuesday morning. If skies are clear and YWG maintains a light NW flow all night, I suppose -20C is possible early Tuesday at the airport. Record low for Tue (April 9) is -21.6C from (surprise, surprise) 1997 after that record April blizzard. The latest Winnipeg has ever recorded -20C or lower was April 12th 1881 at -20.0C. Let's hope we're not challenging that late season record..
Oh GFS. How nasty of you! Below zero highs until the end of April...
ReplyDeleteRob, at this point, if it continues, you'll have to open a new poll for when the snow depth will dissapear! Early June will have to be a new option!
Wow, if only E.C. would have been right, we'd be having spring like weather for a well. Everyday now for the last 2 weeks or so they've been forecasting plus 4 or plus 5 for day 6 and 7 but then the next day arrives the previous day 6 forecast of plus 5C gets adjusted to a
ReplyDelete-1C or -2C and the next day 6 and 7 is back to plus 4C or plus 5C and all this despite the fact that the ensembles don't even indicated any plus temps for these days. It's more like zero or below. Those darn automated forecasts are ridiculous and that should be corrected but i know that won't happen. Just another example of how far off the mark we are compared to the U.S. when it comes to forecasting. I wonder how many people have noticed this ridiculous forecasting pattern with E.C's day 6 and day 7 forecast by now.
But as i've said before this is a flood year. Flood years have never been known to produce nice weather especially in the Spring so why would anyone think 2013 would be different. it's deja vu all over again. We've seen these cold patterns before and we all know they don't disappear just like that and this one is no exception. But i have to say i am quite surprised of all the snow that's still on the ground going into the 2nd week of April and what's even more stunning is the fact there's no indication that this is gonna change anytime soon either. It's seems like models wanna keep this cold pattern into the end of April now.
ReplyDeleteThe NWS Grand Forks Forecast discussion noted that the jet stream by Thursday will flip into a more zonal pattern with temperatures still below the normal but averaging above zero at day but below zero at night. That might mean less cold patterns from now on, keep in mind being positive that it's the snowpack that is keeping us below normal. Look at regions without snowcover they are averaging normal to above normal in terms of temperatures. I'm thinking we are going to have a slow warmup and slow melt, given the AO is switching over to positive this week good news for us.
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said... in toronto it's going to 18 on tuesday, but showers. i am so so jealous.
ReplyDeleteSunny and 18C in Niagara today.
3 cm of new snow at my place as of 330 pm.. 2 mm melted. Most of it has melted on paved or concrete surfaces, but it has accumulated on snowcovered ground.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Mike let's hope the AO switch to positive does happen and it does finally warmup....I think we all deserve this after a harsh and prolonged winter. Reality will tell you that sooner or later it's gonna warmup..I mean after all it is April....It's just basically a cruel game of patience this year.
ReplyDelete>>Anonymous said.. Wow, if only E.C. would have been right, we'd be having spring like weather for awhile. Everyday now for the last 2 weeks or so they've been forecasting plus 4 or plus 5 for day 6 and 7 but then the next day arrives the previous day 6 forecast of plus 5C gets adjusted to a -1C or -2C and the next day 6 and 7 is back to plus 4C or plus 5C and all this despite the fact that the ensembles don't even indicated any plus temps for these days. It's more like zero or below. Those darn automated forecasts are ridiculous and that should be corrected but i know that won't happen. Just another example of how far off the mark we are compared to the U.S. when it comes to forecasting. I wonder how many people have noticed this ridiculous forecasting pattern with E.C's day 6 and day 7 forecast by now?
ReplyDeleteWhat bothers me is that the general public thinks that professional meteorologists are producing those long range forecasts. They have no idea those forecasts are automated output straight from a computer with no forecaster intervention whatsoever. It reflects badly on professional meteorologists, who can outperform these automated forecasts in certain situations. Part of the reason I run this blog is to point out when these automated forecasts are not performing well, and to highlight what the reasons may be.
I saw the AO outlook today and it appears it will get past 1 for the 16th and gradually carry on dropping to 0 then over to 3. What would that help aid in? Would it weaken the greenland high at all? Thank's... Mike From @SouthMBWeather
ReplyDeleteyeah, good point there Rob...That's very unfortunate. Just goes to show how unreliable computers can be in certain situations like this. I personally am not at all a fan of those automated forecasts and believe they should be done via human observation but that's not the case and that's just the way it is.
ReplyDeleteI wonder, Rob what the general public's opinion would be if they really knew that those long range forecasts are automated without intervention.
Hey Rob, what exactly are the reasons these automated forecasts have been very poor of late particularly for day 6 and day 7?
ReplyDeleterob,
ReplyDeletedo you think we'll have allot of severe thunderstorms this year, with such a cold snowy winter i would think we deserve a nice warm summer. but then again we had so many above normal temps through all last year.
rob,
ReplyDeletedo you think we'll have allot of severe thunderstorms this year, with such a cold snowy winter i would think we deserve a nice warm summer. but then again we had so many above normal temps through all last year. also could you please put a new poll up?
rob,
ReplyDeletehow much snow do you think south dakota will get from the tuesday Colorado low that NAM thought would hit us super hard?
>> Anonymous said... Hey Rob, what exactly are the reasons these automated forecasts have been very poor of late particularly for day 6 and day 7?
ReplyDeleteDay 6/7 forecasts are generated from the Canadian Global Ensemble System (GEPS) but I strongly suspect that the temperature output is being modified by some "climatology factor" so that the output doesn't stray too much from climatology. This results in better overall verification scores over the course of a season or a year, but can also result in poor performance during unseasonably warm or cold periods such as we're in right now.
Normal highs right now are around +7 or +8C. If Day 6/7 guidance is being nudged towards climatology, you can see why those Day 6/7 forecasts that are showing highs around 0C are being inflated up to +5C.
"Just goes to show how unreliable computers can be in certain situations like this."
ReplyDeleteBut you are seeing a forecast that's being adjusted based on the human logic that climate norms should be used to fudge the model, in an automated fashion. The fully automated numerical models have actually been more reliable than the extended public forecast which introduces this artificial climate fudge.
So in short, it just goes to show how reliable the computers are. But yes, humans should be allowed to go back and remove the bias they introduced in the first place, to make for more accurate extended forecasts in situations like there.
>> rob, how much snow do you think south dakota will get from the tuesday Colorado low that NAM thought would hit us super hard?
ReplyDeleteStill early to say depending on storm track, but preliminary estimates of 15-25 cm for northern and western SD.
G...
ReplyDeleteA more sophisticated computer algorithm would recognize an abnormal pattern and adjust the bias accordingly, without a human forecaster even needing to. It would be smart enough to see that, for example, over the last 5 days, the climatology factor has been hurting temperature performance. Hence, given similar conditions, it will be modified to reflect a better correction factor (kind of like an updateable MOS algorithm)
Rob, do you think day 6 and day 7 forecast of plus 4 and plus 5 for next friday and saturday are still incorrect or is there potential for a warmup by then?
ReplyDeleteI think we'll be "warming up" towards +2C by the end of the week, but the Day 6/7 forecasts will likely be too warm until this pattern breaks.
ReplyDeleteAlso by next Sunday, we could be looking at a significant storm system affecting southern MB including the RRV. GGEM, GFS and Euro all show a Dakota low affecting southern MB.. with ensembles already hinting at some precip in that time frame. (Euro showing 16 mm precip for Winnipeg Sunday, while GFS has 14 mm) Precip phase may be an issue, with rain/wet snow mix, but potentially all snow if it's cold enough. Whatever the case, that will likely be the next major system to watch for us.
Rob, is the thinking the same as far as this ugly pattern breaking in the 2nd half of April which would finally give us some warmer temps?
ReplyDelete