 |
RGEM valid mid morning
Sunday Apr 21 2013
System will push an area
of snow across southern MB |
A chilly start to the day today will give way to a more pleasant afternoon as sunny skies allow temperatures to rise above the freezing mark this afternoon over the Red River valley. Still, temperatures will continue to be some 10C below normal for this time of year, with normal highs now in the +13C range. Skies will cloud over tonight ahead of the next weather system that will be tracking across southern Manitoba from Saskatchewan overnight into Sunday. An area of snow is expected to spread over Winnipeg and the RRV early Sunday, with a couple cm of slushy snow possible through early afternoon. There's a possibility that local amounts up to 5 cm are possible as a band of heavier snow moves through near midday. This band of snow will push east of the RRV Sunday afternoon, with temperatures climbing to +3C which should melt off much of the morning snow.
Unfortunately, the colder than normal weather pattern is expected to continue through much of the upcoming week, with daily highs only in the sub +5C range through mid week and overnight lows below freezing. This is good news on the flood front as a gradual snowmelt is exactly what is needed to minimize flood damage. A top 3 flood event is now projected over the Red River valley with a crest expected to arrive in Emerson around mid May, and Winnipeg around the Victoria Day weekend... one of the latest crests on record.
Low of -11.5C at YWG airport this morning.. just shy of the -13.2C on this date in 1988. Colder temps of -12 to -15C to our south and west with record lows set in Gretna (-12C), Pilot Mound (-14C) and Dauphin (-13C)
ReplyDeleteAt this rate, there won't be a flood crest. Sublimation will take care of the entire snow pack....eventually...when they snow is gone sometime in May.
ReplyDeleteBut this cold weather could end up costing the economy more than a flood if the farmers can't plant their crops in time (soil temperature has to rise first).
>>Anonymous said...At this rate, there won't be a flood crest. Sublimation will take care of the entire snow pack.... eventually... when they snow is gone sometime in May.
ReplyDeleteThat would be ideal.. and there's a fairly large area of bare ground showing up from Grand Forks north to Drayton which is a good sign. The best case scenario would be a gradual melt where everything in the Red River valley goes at the same time, instead of the usual crest arriving from the south. The concern is for that to happen before a big rain (or God forbid, snow) event.
Accuweather is forecasting only one more week of temperatures sitting in the plus single digits before we hit the double digits by the 28th of April. We warm up past that point into the mid teens to near 20C a week later. Which is around the time frame of when this ridge will finally be moving into our region. Any Thought's Rob? I know accuweather is quite accurate in terms of their forecasts.
ReplyDeletethats just like the weather network mike. and also rob, do you have any way of tracking down who was swearing at you?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLooks like this prolonged winter is starting to get to some people...
ReplyDeleteOk, grow up guys....let's keep it nice here. I think Rob has done an amazing job in keeping us informed about the upcoming weather here on his blog and this is the kinda we see. Totally uncalled for and disgustingly disrespectful. As far as calling Rob the N word, that is totally racist and unacceptable and whoever wrote this should be ashamed of themselves for this total lack of respect.
ReplyDeleteRob didn't create this blog for people to slander one another, so whoever is writing this, back off.
I really like this blog and would hate to see Rob dropping the blog because of one's stupidity.
Keep up the great work, Rob!!
Sorry folks.. can't really control comments like that. Very unfortunate some people have nothing better to do than troll blogs and post such offensive and tasteless remarks.
ReplyDeleteI've enabled comment moderation for the time being.. which means I will need to vet comments before they are posted. Sorry some troll has to ruin this harmless blog for everyone, but I won't tolerate such offensive posts. Hopefully, this will be a temporary measure..
ReplyDeleteI missed whatever it was, but keep up the great blog Rob.
ReplyDeleteDrove from Winnipeg to Morden today, and am amazed at how much snow is still on the fields. There's a few bare patches, and the snow is slowly disappearing (sublimating mostly), but there's also many fields still totally covered, and drifts still several feet deep, even hiding the snow fences.
I totally agree with you on that, Rob. There is absolutely no reason for those kind of remarks and I don't blame you for taking such action against these vicious and offensive comments.
ReplyDeleteNow to the weather, Rob are we still looking at a modest 2-5 CM of snow tomorrow or will it be more significant than that?
I didn't see the comment either but yes I agree Robs weather perspective is the most accurate and infomative site there is for our area. I find this site invaluable. Unfortunately there are people with no respect or class. Keep up the good work Rob. By the way currently in Las Vegas and it is hot here. Hopefully it won't be long until this weather starts hitting the praries
ReplyDeletehello there my name is willy. i really like this blog, i am just like you guys a am addicted to the weather. i live in winnipeg mb and i am wondering when all this snow will disappear? this blog definetly has the best information on weather in southern mb and areas around. i am also wondering how snow we will get tomorrow? i am guessing about 2-5 centimeters but i am not shure. MARVELOUS BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleterob,
ReplyDeletei must thank you for all the hard work you put into running this fantastic weather blog, and i am very sorry when somebody would waste there time tring to be disrespectful.
Thanks everyone for their supportive comments. Rest assured I'll keep running this blog as long as there's interesting weather to talk about.. good or bad!
ReplyDeleteAs for tomorrow, we're still looking at 2-5 cm for Winnipeg and the RRV, mainly between 6 am and 2 pm, as a band of snow pushes across the region. There is some instability associated with this band, so there could be a heavier burst of snow for an hour or two. Fortunately temperatures will be near the melting mark, so there should be some melting as the snow falls, but if the snow burst is heavy enough, there could be a quick accumulation of 2 or 3 cm. That band should pass through fairly quickly, with temperatures rising to +2C or so by afternoon which will melt most of the snow that falls.
Is there a link between date of snow melt and the amount of spring/early summer precipitation? 2010 and 2012 were both pretty wet and both had warm Marches and early disappearance of snow cover. Accuweather is not forecasting any significant amounts of precipitation so does this mean we could be looking at a dry second half of spring or is it too early to tell?
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteI guess it'll soon be time to pull out the next depressing statistic: How many of the coldest Aprils have been followed by cold Mays?
Andrew..
ReplyDeleteOf the 20 coldest Aprils in Winnipeg, 60% were followed by colder than normal Mays, 35% were warmer than normal, and 5% were near normal. So the correlation between a cold April and cold May is not as strong as between March and April, but the odds do favour a colder than normal May following a cold April. Note that of the 5 coldest Aprils since 1950, ALL were followed by colder than normal Mays, with a composite average about 3C below normal. So statistically speaking, odds are still against us for a change to a warm pattern in May. Hopefully, we can buck the trend this year.
As for correlation between snowmelt and precipitation, I don't have the stats to say for sure.. but it does make sense that the earlier you have green up (leaves, crops, etc) the earlier you can get convection and convective precip going. A later growing season would tend to delay convective precipitation, but again, I don't have the precip stats to say more definitely.
Rob, enjoy following you blog and the interesting statistical weather discussions that take place here. Keep it up, if this winter combined with last summer's poor thunderstorm season hasn't put us down I don't know what will.
ReplyDeleteMatt
This blog isn't just the best weather-related website for Winnipeg and southern Manitoba in general. It's one of the best for any area in Canada, in my opinion. I've been trying to find a blog of a similar calibre that's *updated regularly* (this is where a lot of weather blogs fail!) for the Toronto area, or at least Southern Ontario, but despite its having a far larger population I haven't been able to find one yet.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the great work Rob!
Rob, do you think that day 6 and day 7 forecast for Friday and Saturday of 10 C and 9 C is possible or is it a case of too much optimism again by those automated forecasts?
ReplyDeleteEncouraging to see the ECMWF on board with temperatures in the double digits by next weekend... Really hope this idea continues.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, what's the difference between light snow and light snowshower? I see the observation at the airport has been alternating between those 2 this morning.
>> Anonymous said...Rob, do you think that day 6 and day 7 forecast for Friday and Saturday of 10 C and 9 C is possible or is it a case of too much optimism again by those automated forecasts?
ReplyDeleteModels have been struggling with that late week warmup with a lot of variability from run to run. But they have been trying to show a warmup for a while now, so I do think there will be some warmer weather arriving later next week, although there's still considerable uncertainty on the degree and duration of the warmup.
All 3 main long range models (GGEM, GFS and Euro) show warmer conditions for Friday into the weekend, with temperatures at or above the 10C mark. I think it may be a bit optimistic for Friday (perhaps more like 6 or 7C), but it's possible we may be approaching the 10C mark this weekend.
The European model has really gone crazy with the warming with a projected high of 20C for Sunday for Winnipeg. Don't see that happening. They also have a system coming through early next week with 25-35 mm of rain advertised for Winnipeg. It's the only model showing anything like that, so it's an outlier at this point.. but worrisome given its usually superior long range performance.
Rob,
ReplyDeleteis there a possibility that we will get even more snow on wednesday? ): it would be very sad. if we do get any snow is there the possibility of getting some rain with it?
>>Anonymous said.. By the way, what's the difference between light snow and light snowshower? I see the observation at the airport has been alternating between those 2 this morning.
ReplyDelete"Snowshower" refers to snow that is convective in nature, usually intermittent, while "snow" is generally associated with a more widespread continuous area of precipitation with a system. Similar to the difference between "rain" and "rain shower" Snow is coded by the airport weather observer as -SN while snowshower is coded as -SHSN. Note that this distinction is made only by a human observer at an airport site. Automated weather sites that can record precipitation type will only output RAIN or SNOW as they cannot distinguish the nature of the precipitation.
Note also that I've seen observers incorrectly code steady snow as snowshower, and vice versa.
Steadier heavier snow moving into the city now.. probably will be with us for the next couple of hours. Snow is generally melting, but we could start picking up some accumulations as we get into the heavier snow rates.
ReplyDeletewow!
ReplyDeleteEC has 10 CM of snow today in norway house MB and a snowfall warning! most clippers tend to avoid northern manitoba and focus more on southern MB, not this one.
>> willy said...Rob, is there a possibility that we will get even more snow on wednesday? ): it would be very sad. if we do get any snow is there the possibility of getting some rain with it?
ReplyDeletewilly.. Yes, looks like we may see some more snow Wednesday, but it won't be much. A cold front will be going through (yeah, I know.. ANOTHER cold front?) that will be giving a brief period of some flurries, so I don't think we're looking at much in terms of accumulation. But at this point, people don't want to see another flake. A quick cooldown behind that front for Wednesday/Thursday before we warm up Friday into the weekend.
definitely coming down heavier now. although heaviest snow is quite far north west of hear. we will probably get that snow around 11:oo or so.
ReplyDeleteInteresting how all the deterministic models are going wild next weekend with warmer temps, while the ensembles are much more conservative. The ensembles have been known to miss 'extreme' weather, so perhaps they are missing the boat on the heat.
ReplyDeleteIs there another weather-Garth in Winnipeg?! That wasn't me at 10:13 AM. lol
ReplyDelete2 cm of slushy snow at my place.. still snowing but it's melting as it's falling so little additional accumulation. Back edge of snow should be pushing through Winnipeg between 130 and 2 pm..
ReplyDeleteRob, I honestly enjoy your blog and your wonderful personality and kindness you show to us. Don't let comment's like what was said yesterday make you feel bad about yourself. You are who are you are & I enjoy it. I love weather so that doesn't mean were addict's, we have other things we do with our time. I love the blog Rob, keep up the good work! I'm looking forward to our times ahead good or bad. Cheers! -Mike McGregor
ReplyDeleteAutomated day 6 and day 7 forecasts now at 13C for Friday and 12C Saturday....would be nice but not very likely as those automated forecasts are likely overdoing it again.
ReplyDeleteRob, do you think it's possible 12 C Saturday?
Rob, i've notice the airport is at 4.1C...think it will reach that elusive plus 5 mark before the end of the day today or not likely?
ReplyDelete>> Rob, do you think it's possible 12 C Saturday?
ReplyDeleteThe main long range models are coming into better agreement about a significant warmup starting Friday and continuing through the weekend before a bit of cooldown for the last couple day of April. The +13C forecast for Friday seems too sudden a warmup especially at the airport given we will still have snowcover around. However inside the city we may be getting into double digits as snowcover is becoming less and less. But I think the airport's sub +5C will finally be over by Friday (if it isn't reached earlier this week), and the 10C mark has a good chance at the airport by the weekend, which would save us from the dubious distinction of being the only April on record that didn't reach 10C.
Also, I see the Euro has totally backed off on that 25-35 mm rainfall for Winnipeg next Monday on today's run.. which is hopefully the way it will stay.
All in all.. some light at the end of the tunnel!
>> Anonymous said...Rob, i've notice the airport is at 4.1C...think it will reach that elusive plus 5 mark before the end of the day today or not likely?
ReplyDeleteMay come close.. but I don't see any +5C temps upstream, and winds are veering into the NW which would be coming off the snowpack at YWG airport.. so I don't think they're going to make +5C today.
Rob, do we turn much warmer again after the cooldown into May? I saw meteocentre models and they are showing a ridge developing afterwards. Not much of a cooldown though with high's 5 to 10C, we can take it...
ReplyDeleteMike.. The long range models do show upper ridging re-establishing in early May, which would point to warmer weather returning. However, I would caution against trusting anything this far out, as models have been struggling with what appears to be a developing pattern change.
ReplyDeleteRob, thought I'd share this with you & others. The current weather pattern is setup so high pressure sits south of greenland & off the coast of Alaska providing a strong area of low pressure in the arctic and that is what is offsetting our spring by allowing for cold air to filter in inbetween. However there is some hope as the ensemble favours high pressure over the states and part of Canada. I think we might have luck to start off May, I hope. Read more here....
ReplyDeletehttp://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2013/04/spring-pulls-vanishing-act-returns-for.html &
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2013/04/long-range-pattern-preventing-sustained.html
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeleteCould you tell me where the Extended Forecast on your Rob's Obs homepage comes from. The numbers there certainly are not much like EC's right now.
JoeL.. That forecast graphic comes from CBC. It usually doesn't match what the EC forecast is saying, but it gives a pretty good general idea. When you click on the graphic however, you get EC's forecast. I use the CBC graphic because it appears as a single .jpg image that I can display on my website. I can't find a similar image showing EC's complete 7 day forecast at a glance.
ReplyDeleteRob, this may be hard to say right now but what are the indications as far as precip is concerned for May?
ReplyDeleteAs we all know May typically is the start of thunderstorm season here and with the current flood situation convective precip in abundance would not be a good thing.
Close but no cigar! A maximum of +4.7C at YWG airport today.. so the sub +5C streak continues. A few more days below +5C (may get close Tuesday), but the streak should finally end by the end of the week. Unbelievable that it's taken so long..
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said...Rob, this may be hard to say right now but what are the indications as far as precip is concerned for May?
ReplyDeleteToo early to say at this point. If we can get an upper ridge setting up over western north America that spreads over the southern Prairies, that will give us a nice below normal precip pattern. If a long wave trough sets up over Western NA, and we are under a SW flow aloft.. then that would mean a wetter, more unsettled pattern for us. At this point, the signs are indicating that ridge setting up for the first part of May.. which would tend to keep us drier. After that though, no idea how things may evolve. But yes, we can can get some heavy rain events in May, especially around and after the Victoria Day weekend. Hopefully, Red and Assiniboine will be past their peak by then..
Snowpack down to 15 cm at my place now, with more and more bare ground showing up in the city. Some parts of the city are pretty much snowfree, with snowbanks eroding quickly. Based on the expected temperature trends coming up, it's possible we may lose much of our snowcover in the RRV by early next week as we get into a more rapid snow loss this weekend.
ReplyDeleteThat of course will mean more rapid rises starting on the rivers, and a flood warning is already out for the Red around Fargo. They're expecting the Red to rise 15 feet over the next week, which would put the river above major flood stage in Fargo (30 feet) by next Monday. Peak expected in Fargo some time later next week possibly around 40 feet or so.
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=fgf&gage=fgon8