 |
GGEM valid 7 am Monday Apr 15th
Strong low over northern MN
poised to bring snow and wind
to southern MB by late Sunday |
The winter of 2012-13 continues to maintain a firm grip on the weather pattern over southern MB. Temperatures continue to struggle well below normal values for this time of year, thanks to an unseasonably deep and extensive snowpack still on the ground. As of this morning, snowdepths of 20-40 cm were widespread across the Red River valley including 37 cm at Winnipeg. Normally, we should be seeing bare ground by now in Winnipeg, which on average loses its snow cover by
April 5th. And to make matters worse, it looks like we'll be adding to that snowcover later Sunday into Monday as a storm system tracks across North Dakota into northern Minnesota. Precipitation from this system is expected to spread along the US border Sunday afternoon, likely beginning as some wet snow. As the system intensifies Sunday night, snow will overspread the RRV including Winnipeg and continue into Monday. This will make for a rather unpleasant start to the work week Monday morning with falling snow and cold northerly winds. Snowfall amounts of 5-10 cm are possible with this system Sunday night into Monday, with a potential for locally higher amounts if temperatures are a bit colder. Colder than normal temperatures will continue in the wake of this system through the upcoming week, although additional significant precipitation amounts are not expected at this point. There are some hopeful signs that the abnormally cold pattern will finally be easing after the end of next week, which hopefully will result in a more sustained but gradual snowmelt, without additional heavy precipitation to elevate the spring flood risk.
UPDATE: 8:30 am Saturday April 13th:
Special weather statement issued by Env Canada for upcoming storm system. 10-15 cm of snow possible late Sunday into Monday.
Winter storm warnings in effect for North Dakota including Grand Forks for 15-30 cm of snow Sunday.
Forecast.io now has in all about 5 inches of snow for the clipper system ahead! thats about 10 cm. compared to yesterdays "cloudy" with a chase of snow thats a lot.
ReplyDeleteWhen you said that rain in EC's forecast is misleading Rob, it's too bad the media doesn't realise it; they advertise rain boots and umbrellas for that day. Some people may be dissapointed then. Ugh, those automated forecasts.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it's a combination of automation and poor programming. If you look at the actual model output and grid data for Winnipeg, it shows a mix of wet snow and rain moving in late Sunday changing to all snow Sunday evening. A human forecaster would describe that as "snow developing late in the day, possibly mixed with some rain at first" while an automated forecast spits out "periods of rain" for the whole day. That shows the limitations of a crude automated text based forecast that can often hide key and useful details that the model is trying to indicate.
ReplyDeleteForecast.io also says it's 1C (but the airport has been 3C for hours, and just dropped to 2C), says the high was 2C (but it was 3C), says a current RH of 85% (but it's really been around 40-50% for hours, currently 52%), winds NE at 10km/h (but they haven't been that light all day and are currently ESE 17km/h). Comparing to the Forks weather also doesn't help any. Their current conditions are a mystery.
ReplyDeleteThey are calling for snow tonight and tomorrow morning, and a high of only 0C for Saturday. Waste of time in my opinion.
Oh, EC now says 1C for Saturday. OK.
ReplyDeleteHigh of +3.3C at YWG airport today.. "warmest" day so far this year. Still a good 5C below normal for this time of year.
ReplyDeleteTo put things in perspective, our mean temperature so far this month is -7.4C, which is over 1C below normal for MARCH!
Rob, given the late season snowfall and cooler than normal temperatures do you think that our thunderstorm season will be delayed at all? I have a strong feeling we won't see any until Mid to late May. Does that also mean less in terms of severe weather for the upcoming spring and summer? I cannot wait to see all of the snow melt by the end of next week or later and get into seeing 16C temperatures to get the spring weather we've been waiting for that of course if our winter doesn't carry on into May. This better be the last worst winter we have to deal with....
ReplyDeleteMike.. It's possible that a delayed start to the growing season may result in a delayed start to severe summer storms here since evapotranspiration plays an important role in convective weather in the Prairies. However once we have green-up, this summer could be as active as any other year.
ReplyDeleteLong-range predictions still give next to certain chances of colder than normal temperatures for the next 2 weeks. The chance of this becoming the coldest April ever is getting higher and higher.
ReplyDeleteAnd the chances of having snow on the ground still into May are looking fairly certain (if we get that storm on Sunday/Monday). I'm starting to feel sorry for the farmers, and wildlife.
ReplyDeleteNo kidding. Those farmers have not had any luck the past few years... from flood to drought, with no intermediate...
ReplyDeleteDefinitely colder than normal through at least the 25th. Next week looks to be rather chilly. An upper level high over Alaska pushing arctic air south over the prairies.
ReplyDeleteWill that be the end of the cold weather? Sorry folks, we may as well keep this ugly pattern going because in early May the ECMWF is predicting the Greenland block to re establish itself once again keeping the prairies chilly.
I hate to be a downer, but at this point I just want to see just how awful our weather can actually get.
Are there any signs that we might be getting warmer through the next couple of weeks, I am sick of this weather! It has to end soon, obviously once the snow melts the cold pattern will likely go away. Please tell me good news, I'm thinking of moving given this horrible weather...
ReplyDeleteNot the end of the world if the cold keeps coming, but I'm a subcontractor who needs to keep people working. This definately effect my workers bottom line. Come on sun!
ReplyDeleteWinter storm watch in effect for all of North Dakota, with NWS Grand Forks office indicating potential for 7-14" (15-35 cm) of snow for parts of their area Saturday night through Sunday night, including the Red River basin. This of course is not good news for the flood threat, especially if those higher amounts verify. Bulk of the storm should affect areas mainly south of the US border Sunday, but southern MB will be catching the back end of the storm Sunday night into Monday with perhaps 5-10 cm here in Winnipeg, and possibly higher amounts of 10-15 cm over southern RRV and SE MB, Whiteshell areas.
ReplyDeleteRob I just noticed something very suspicious about the high of -8.3°C on April 28, 1958. In the hourly data, it shows temperatures above zero overnight. Here's the data link:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=MAN&StationID=3698&dlyRange=1938-01-01|2008-07-24&Month=4&Year=1958&cmdB1=Go
Press '28' for hourly data and you'll see what I mean. I'm starting to think that the high of -8.3°C is incorrect. What do you think? I see on your records page that that '''high''' of -8.3°C was a record low maximum, but is it really?
Anonymous: re: April 28 1958. Sharp eye there. You're correct.. temperatures that day were above zero just after midnight before the temperatures started falling through the day (with a full fledged blizzard I might add)
ReplyDeleteBack then, it appears that they took the day's high from 6 am to midnight, and the day's low from midnight to 6 pm. At some point (I don't know when), they changed the official climate day to midnight to midnight. So yes, there is some discrepancy between climate observations taken back then and those taken today. Had the observations for 1958 used today's standards, the high on the 28th would have been +4.4C, not -8.3C.
Will you be keeping the -8.3°C as a record low maximum?
ReplyDeleteOfficially in the climate archives, that's the high for that date given the data collection methods back then, so that's officially the record that appears for that day.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob
ReplyDeleteRob, are there any signs of warmer temperatures on the way in the next several weeks? Also is it possible that we could lose the snowpack by next week? I am getting quite sick of having to get up in the morning and brave the cool winds to catch the bus. I'd rather have a warm sun & nice spring temperatures in the morning to get me in a good mood. I apologize for asking too often, just trying my best to wait patiently.
ReplyDeleteHer Rob, Just wondering if this storm system has the chance of tracking a little more north and affect Winnipeg more then what is being speculated now. Thanks
ReplyDeleteHi from Grand Forks
ReplyDeleteWorking tonight and looks like a big storm for Bismarck-Fargo-Grand Forks to Kenora region with southeast Manitoba in on it too. Euro gives Winnipeg quite a bit whereas most American models are a bit further south. But certainly a 6 inch snowfall not out of the question for Winnipeg more south and east.
Our in-house NWS climate expert is suggesting continued much below normal temps the next 3-4 weeks before he sees some changes....so hang in there.
It will also be the latest Red River snow melt crest flood in over 100 years....
Yeah Euro seems to be the only model that wants to bring Winnipeg and the RRV a major snowstorm and has continuously been consistent with that but all other models have 5-10CM of snow for us. With euro generally the most reliable model it makes you wonder who's the outlier at this point.
ReplyDeleteEither way it ain't nothing positive as usual. For those who are pinning their hopes on changes with this ugly pattern this month, well it's not looking good and in fact there is more and more suggestions all the time now that it appears the endless winter will continue for another 3 weeks and possibly more with well below normal temps.....yikes, very scary.
So the unimaginable prospect of a decent size snowpack to start May appears to be more of a possibility as each passing day goes by and with more snow likely to fall between now and then, well i am really starting to believe that this will become a reality come the start of May. Wow, unbelievable.
Mike.. You're not the only one getting tired of this endless winter, but unfortunately, there's no real big warmup in sight, just perhaps a trend towards less cold by the end of April. But there's nothing we can do about it anyways.. so instead, just try to think that we're living through one of the most prolonged winters in our lifetimes, something you can tell your grandkids about one day. And hopefully, we can take some solace that we likely won't experience a worse spring in our lifetime..
ReplyDeletePersonally, I've very curious about what this prolonged cold weather will mean for the Red River flood threat. We're getting into unprecedented territory here for such a late melt.. so it will be very interesting to see what develops over the next 4-6 weeks, and to put this flood year into historical perspective.
Tonight's NAM and the 18Z GFS both indicating 14 mm precip for Winnipeg Sunday night into Monday, which would equate to 10-15 cm of snow for us.. maybe closer to 10 cm with some initial melting Sunday evening. As Dan mentioned, higher amounts possible south and east of Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteRGEM really slamming eastern ND hard Sunday with amounts of 30+ cm by Sunday evening.
Mother Nature really has it in for us this spring. At this point, I'm starting to get some morbid fascination for how bad it can get.
At least this weather provides a very revealing window into various long-range forecasts. TWN has been forecasting 5-10C in their long-range for weeks now, obviously biased heavily to climate norms. EC has a similar problem, though not as obvious as their public forecast doesn't extend as far.
ReplyDeleteWith temperatures forecast to remain below +5C for Winnipeg through next Thursday, 2013 will mark the latest date since records began in 1872 that Winnipeg reached a temperature of +5C or more. By that measure, this will be the latest spring experienced here in over 140 years of weather records. Even the cold Aprils of 1893, 1950, 1979 and 1997 will have reached +5C earlier than this year. That's incredible enough. But for this to occur just one year after our earliest spring and warmest March on record is difficult to comprehend.
ReplyDeleteThe current latest date for reaching +5C is April 15th back in 1950 (the year of the great flood) If we break that record, the next milestone would be latest +10C reading, currently April 30 1893 during Winnipeg's coldest April ever. At this point, might as well break that record and coldest April too.
That +5C stat however is to me misleading because that's at YWG Airport. All other areas across city including your site Rob and the forks site have already reached plus 5 or even higher in the last couple of days. That's why to me Airport readings shouldn't be the official readings because these readings are hardly reflective of the temps across the city. YWG Airport is always seems a good 2 to 5 degrees colder than any other area of the city especially at this time of the year during the daytime. But regardless even YWG Airport not reaching plus 5 at this point is unreal.
ReplyDeleteMy personal feeling is that this will go on longer than most of us think. I hope i'm wrong but that's just a feeling i have.
And as far as the snowstorm Sunday, well I say why not, it's still winter and snow is a characteristic of winter, right. Can't say i'm surprised about that, in fact i've been wondering how long it would take for us to get blasted with more snow....let's face it, it was only a matter of time before this happens and will more than likely happen again down the road if this keeps up.
Anonymous... Actually, even the Forks still hasn't hit +5C yet (max of +4.6C on April 11) While it's true that parts of the city may have reached +5c already, we can only compare our official stats to airport stats which go back to 1938 and back to 1872 at St Johns College closer to downtown. It's quite possible that parts of the city may have hit +5c earlier than April 15th in 1950 as well, but we don't have stats to say for sure. That's why it's important to base such a record on a location with a long homogeneous record at the same location. By that measure, this will be latest spring we've ever had if we stay below +5.0c this weekend. Quite a remarkable statistic when you think about it...
ReplyDeleteAnother note to ones who are complaining or just have enough of this extended winter; keep in mind that at least we're not the only ones experiencing this. Alberta, Sask and anywhere east is in this deep as well this spring... We're all in this together.
ReplyDeleteAs long as you're comparing apples to apples, I'm very satisfied with using the airport temps for our climate stats. The worst thing would be to start using something like The Forks (in the cement jungle), or the Wheat Board (on an asphalt roof several stories up), or any other non-WMO standard site. Comparing those sites to themselves is even difficult, as the local micro-climate keeps changing (i.e. new parking lot, new asphalt, new tar on the roof, moving an air conditioning unit, etc, etc, etc).
ReplyDeleteAnother measure of how late this spring is... Roblin Park community center is holding a shinny hockey game on their outdoor rink this morning, latest date ever in 25 years.
ReplyDeleteIncredible how we keep dodging records in this cold spell. Not one broken yet. We're awfully close.. just not close enough.
ReplyDeleteIt's a beautiful morning. I sure hope we DON'T hit +5C today. lol
ReplyDeleteStill have 33 cm of snow on the ground at my place this morning... We'll likely lose a couple more cm this weekend before we add to it again Sunday night and Monday!
ReplyDeleteModels are remarkably consistent in giving Winnipeg about 15 mm melted precip Sunday night ino Monday. We'll see some melting snow at first Sunday evening, then it should start accumulating Sunday night giving us a winter wonderland by Monday morning (Monday morning grumbling will be extra strong) Snow continuing Monday morning before tapering off in the afternoon. Should be seeing a good 10 cm in Winnipeg when it's all said and done, with 15 cm quite possible according to latest model forecasts. Will keep you posted on any changes to timing or amounts.
>> Anonymous said...Incredible how we keep dodging records in this cold spell. Not one broken yet. We're awfully close.. just not close enough.
ReplyDeleteNo record lows yet for Winnipeg, but some places in southern MB have set records. But it's a good point.. this cold spell has been more remarkable for its duration rather than intensity. If it keeps going however, we'll likely start breaking some cold temperature records in Winnipeg if we maintain a record snowpack into early May.
Winter storm WARNING out for ND.. 15-25 cm expected across much of eastern ND Sunday with up to 30 cm possible in some areas. Special weather statement issued for southern MB, for 10-15 cm of snow Sunday night into Monday.
ReplyDeletewow! accuweather says "12-20 centimeters of snow expected sunday afternoon through monday evening".
ReplyDeleteRob, given the the sunshine and a slight southeast breeze do you think we a have good chance at recording out first plus 5C reading this year today?
ReplyDeleterob,
ReplyDeletecan you please put a snow poll for the sunday night snowstorm?
>>Anonymous said...Rob, given the the sunshine and a slight southeast breeze do you think we a have good chance at recording out first plus 5C reading this year today?
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't call it a good chance, but perhaps an outside chance YWG airport may get close to +5C today with that sunshine and east wind off the city. Might even get close tomorrow as well before the snow hits. But right now, guidance is suggesting we'll stay below +5c.
>> Anonymous said...rob, can you please put a snow poll for the sunday night snowstorm?
ReplyDeleteDone! I've also re-opened the poll on when snowcover will disappear in Winnipeg, as I've had a few requests for a re-vote! (since it's looking quite likely we won't be losing it anytime soon)
Thank you so much Rob, i think we will get 15-20 cm of snow because the last few times we have had a snow storm we've gotten that much. also i voted that the snow will disappear between may 5th and 10th.
ReplyDeleteEC now says 5-10 CM of snow sunday night and says "snow" for monday, boy the wonders of automated forecast.
ReplyDelete4.7C at Rob's Obs (1C at the airport). Just went for a walk in Charleswood and it feels like 10C! Anything above 0 and sunny seems tropical by now I guess.
ReplyDeleteJust found this blog. Amazing! Thanks! I have been looking at the major online papers for news of this storm and none are mentioning anything about upcoming snow. Strange (and bordering on ludicrous) considering we are in such a precarious position with the flood potential.
ReplyDeleteThanks again, this is the place I'll be coming back to.
Some hope on the horizon, Rob remember you mentioned much warmer weather is on the way after this coming week well it is looking more and more likely. Click my name to see the outlook...
ReplyDeletem4runner.. Welcome to the blog! Hope you can find some helpful info here. I'll be posting an update on the storm tonight or tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteUpdated model runs today have shown a slight southward shift to the storm system, with 5-10 cm indicated for Winnipeg Sunday night into Monday, 10-15 cm over the southern RRV, and heaviest amounts of 15-30 cm south of the border over North Dakota. Even if Winnipeg misses the heaviest snow, there will certainly be a significant amount falling over the Red River basin, especially south of the international border. We'll have to see how much actually falls over eastern North Dakota which will have a big impact on the Red River flood outlook.
Mike. That's a 384 hr (16 day) forecast for a single deterministic model. I wouldn't base much hope on that one run of the GFS. John Sauder made that mistake a couple of weeks ago, forecasting 8-10C for an 8-day forecast (using the GFS I believe), and it never happened, so using the same model for a 16-day forecast isn't appropriate.
ReplyDeleteThe Ensembles still point to below normal temperatures during the end of April, but still warmer than this next week is going to be, so spring is coming some day.
Amazing how the temperature flat-lined this afternoon. YWG's high was only 1.1C. At least we'll have the satisfaction of being the latest to hit 5C ever - might as well get some perverse pleasure from this cold.
ReplyDeleteTonight's model runs have shifted storm track further south again, keeping bulk of snow south of Winnipeg now, and mainly over North Dakota. GEM actually misses Winnipeg completely while NAM still gives us about 5 cm, with 10-15 cm near US border and 15-25 cm possible over eastern North Dakota. We'll see what tonight's Euro and GGEM show, but latest trend is good news for those of us who didn't want to see a lot more snow here in Winnipeg..
ReplyDeleteI'll say, it's actually a little dissapointing considering models were hitting us with this since last weekend. It's rare that models agree so much a week before the event..
ReplyDeleteWhat??!!! OK, who prayed for the snow to move south?
ReplyDeleteI did.. ;)
ReplyDeleteManitoba farmers thank you. However the flood forecasters are still pulling out their hair.
ReplyDelete