Wednesday, September 01, 2010

More rain on the way..

Not the news we want to hear, but another round of precipitation is on the way over the Red River valley later today into tonight with some scattered thunderstorms possible. Rain may be locally heavy at times with amounts of 15-25 mm possible mainly tonight into Thursday morning. The rain is unwelcome news after Monday's soaking which brought 40-100 mm of rain through the valley. As this system moves to the east Thursday, gusty north winds will develop with gusts to 60 or 70 km/h by afternoon and temperatures only in the mid teens.. definitely a fall like feel to the day. Things should start clearing out Friday with a nice looking weekend ahead with sunshine and moderating temperatures for Saturday and Sunday. The next weather system threatens showers by Monday or Tuesday of next week.

48 comments:

  1. Any funnel clouds reported in Southern Manitoba today?

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  2. None that I heard of.. funnel clouds reported outside of North Battleford and over Lethbridge area..

    Convection starting to blossom over the southern RRV with showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous and heading rapidly north. 12 mm of rain in Morris past hour so some locally heavy downpours at times this evening and tonight. This will likely cause local drainage problems thanks to the waterlogged soil conditions from the recent deluge Monday. More rain tomorrow on the backside of this system. Sure would like to see a break from this rain for awhile.. a long while..

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  3. Nice undulating altostratus ahead of the elevated convection moving up from the south.. almost looked like ill defined asperatus clouds.

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  4. Your locaion (station) seems to be missing the rain we're getting on south Pembina see your link to the Bishop Grandin cam on my name

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  5. Are we affected with these repeated showers due to the system that is being delayed by EARL??

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  6. No sooner mentioned (no rain in Charelswood) than corrected by your site

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  7. Special weather statement issued for the Red River Valley for all of this additional rain!

    Talk about a soaking!
    I know they called for above average rain this fall!
    I hope this is not a prelude of things to come!

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  8. I can see Winnipeg getting the high end forecasted rain total of 25 mm tonight.

    This rain is in no rush of exiting the area!

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  9. Wow already 38mm at your station Rob! And its still coming down hard with radar showing another good hour or two of rainfall. Thinking we will hit 50mm by dawn! Whats the record for rainfall in September? We are well on our way......

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  10. I think EC needs to go and check out their rain guage. They are reporting just under 20mm of rain last night. I think someone may have put an umbrella over the guage.

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  11. Daryl..

    That figure of 19.5 mm at Winnipeg airport was up to midnight last night. They had another 12 mm overnight for a total of 32 mm. The Forks had 34.6 mm. My weather station recorded 42 mm in total which was a little on the high side. My stand alone backyard gauge measured 37 mm, which is more in line with Winnipeg city gauges. The city network showed a general band of 35-40 mm across much of the city (click my name for the city map link.. they will likely post the map sometime today)

    Basically though, Winnipeg has seen 70-90 mm of rain since Monday.. and Morris has had almost 140 mm. Oh to have a September like last year again!

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  12. Thanks Rob

    The EC guy they had on CJOB this morning had given that figure with a time line of 2:00am Obviously a misunderstanding. Even the radio hosts were kinda questioning that amount since the rain really slowed down after 2:00am

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  13. Appears there are more storms n'showers in store for us Monday and Tuesday. The usual (since late July) 25 to 50 mm

    Is that too far ahead to be taken seriously yet?

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  14. I was driving down Corydon Ave this morning and park and golf course are ankle deep in water!

    At least we can have a few nice day this upcoming long weekend!

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  15. I cannot believe we will most likely be exceeding the monthly average rainfall for the month of September by Monday!

    Is this some sort of joke....
    Here's hoping Monday does not bring another inch of rain!

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  16. Jim..

    Yep, that looks like our next main threat of rain.. Monday into Tuesday (6-7th) with a system coming across the Dakotas pushing another wave of showers and possible thunderstorms over southern MB. Still too early to talk about amounts, but based on past history of these systems.. looks like potential for another 20-30 mm depending on where convection sets up. Models/ensembles indicate another precip event around Sept 10th and then again by the 14th so it looks like we're in a pattern with precip events every 3 or 4 days into mid September.

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  17. Thanks ROB.

    We appear to be emulating our own version of the African Saharan engine or the summer months of 2004-05 and 2010 (last two and a half exceptional Hurricane Seasons)

    Is that more than a coincidence.


    I believe that is also the last time actual precip exceeded the total monthly and annual vessel maximums on your OBS page(then) and Precip page now.

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  18. Anybody getting really strong gusts of wind tonight?
    For about 5 mins the winds are just howling with gusts I'm sure approaching 80 km/h!
    They then relax for awhile only to pick up very strong again!

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  19. 68 at the Airport
    66 at Glenlea (Just south of St Norbert)
    72 at Morden

    Jim

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  20. Great call on the winds yesterday ROB.

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  21. I suspect the rivers will be over the walkway for some time . Here are the the rainfall totals from earlier this week from NWS Grand Forks or MY Name

    ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

    HERE ARE SELECTED RAINFALL TOTALS (IN INCHES) FROM AROUND THE
    AREA FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS AS OF 800 AM CDT AUGUST 31 2010.

    MINNESOTA SITES

    DETROIT LAKES 1.78
    GRYGLA 1.78
    ARGYLE 1.62
    HALSTAD 1.49
    UNDERWOOD 8 NNE 1.35
    GREENBUSH 1.31
    RED LAKES FALLS 1.22
    ROOSEVELT 5 N 1.18
    TAMARAC WILDLIFE REFUGE 1.15
    PELICAN RAPIDS 1.14
    ELBOW LAKE 8 ENE 1.00
    LONG LOST LAKE 0.96
    BEMIDJI STATE PARK 0.93


    NORTH DAKOTA SITES

    CAVALIER 7 NW 2.34
    CAVALIER 2.25
    HANSBORO 2.20
    MILTON 3 SE 2.20
    CANDO 9 NE 1.90
    ROCKLAKE 1.70
    WAHPETON 9 W 1.70
    WAHPETON 12 NW 1.60
    SARLES 5 NE 1.57
    WAHPETON 1.27
    WALES 4S 1.25
    BAKER 1.18
    LANKIN 1.11
    GRAFTON 1.10
    LANGDON EXP FARM 1.09
    DEVILS LAKE 0.98
    STARKWEATHER 0.92

    $$

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  22. Further rain for the same sights from 7am SEPT 1st to 2nd is available on my Name or

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=FGF&issuedby=FGF&product=HYD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0

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  23. Oops that link should be My Name or

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=FGF&issuedby=FGF&product=HYD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0

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  24. Browser problems switched to FF 3xxxx
    and this actually copies and wraps the end of the text.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=FGF&issuedby=FGF&product=HYD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0

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  25. A lot of standing water in ditches and fields in southwest Winnipeg.. which I suspect is the case across much of the Red River valley. We really need to get into a dry pattern the rest of the fall to make this water table go down appreciably before winters sets in..

    I see the NAM and GFS are taking a more southern track on Monday/Tuesday's event.. which would keep the bulk of the rain south of Winnipeg and the RRV. GLB is further north and takes rain shield over Winnipeg Monday night through Tuesday with 10-25 mm forecast. Ensemble forecast gives us about 5 mm Monday night into Tuesday. Sure hope the southern trend continues.. we need a break from the wet weather!

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  26. Rob...

    The trend has indeed been a bit farther south as the short wave digs a bit farther south with each model run. Axis of heaviest pcpn seems to be more of a Bismarck to Fargo to Duluth line versus a bit farther north on earlier runs. This is as of Sunday early morning.

    Not quite as wet down here so can take some more rain without any problems. Our local climate person has been saying a wet fall with focus of heaviest rainfall over the southern red river basin. We will see if pattern continues but for the forseeable future it looks like it will.

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  27. Latest GLB has shifted the main rain axis with Monday's system further south across ND, in line with the NAM/GFS solution.. so it looks like we'll be dry until Friday when the next system is forecast to move in. That system looks more significant and may be harder to miss out on precip. Could be seeing another 25 mm out of that one.. but hopefully the heaviest rain misses us.

    A tad too chilly for me this morning.. down to 3.7C at my place, with a couple of +1 to +2 readings nearby. Last September, we didn't have a low below 10c until the 22nd!

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  28. Low temperature down to 3C in Steinbach, and near 0C in Marchand. I'm sure there was patchy frost around here this morning in low-lying areas with those temperatures.

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  29. Rob n Dan.. Glad to see the rain moving south , especially when the QPF for Monday is
    "A SWATH OF
    LOCALLY (south central RRV) VERY HVY AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH A
    SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCH AMTS AND ISOLATED 3 TO 5 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE
    BEFORE THE STG FORCING EXITS THE REGION."

    A bit of deja vu as last Sunday? they called for the same North of Winnipeg only to have it soak us here

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  30. This beautiful sunny fall morning is only spoiled by the need to mow the lawn and the Mosquitoes lurking there.

    A few 0C to +3 days and 3 weeks of sunny dry weather should cure that.

    Jim

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  31. Rob n Dan any sight of the next EL NINO??

    A year ago we didn't have a single hour in September in which it was below 10C for the first three weeks. Its hard to believe that only 12 months ago we completed (was it?) 9 consecutive months of below normal. Then it (EL NINO) began.. 12 months of alternating average or much higher temperatures. September 2009 17.7C Mean a record 5.4 degrees above NORM.

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  32. Down to -1 C at Waskish, MN. Of course the disadvantage of having storm track further south... is that we are deeper into the colder air masses, and potential for an early frost/freeze is greater.

    Models really keep us with dry easterly flow as inverted trough over Saskatchewan weakens and main low moves up from Colorado. They even show the cloud line staying off to our SW.

    Will have to watch Wednesday night as weak high pressure builds in.. if clearing of wrap around clouds can occur we may be in danger of frost again.

    Overall I am surprised how quickly the storm track is slumping south with this La Nina pattern... I had visions of an above average September and October with a nice upper ridge from the Ontario/Manitoba border east... so much for that. With all the cooling projected in the Pacific, persistent low solar output, and possibly all that ash/ soot from fires in Russia and the Iceland volcano... we may well be in for a long, cold winter and yet another late spring :( I hope not.

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  33. Hi

    I must be one of the few on here who looks forward to winter. I hate warm weather and hope we do have a very long and cold winter. All my readings indicate that...I always thought growing up I was destined to live in Yellowknife.

    We are in a long term -PDO and this supports much more La Nina times than El Nino. Of course there are a lot of other things going on besides those two which have an influence on our weather. It is a bit early to tell with Arctic Oscillation and PNA patterns. But I am getting excited to see the summer go...it was way too warm for me. I always wanted to work for Env Canada growing up....but oh well got close.

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  34. TODAY 25 Knot east winds on lake Winnipeg south basin (EC warning on my name). Combined with record high lake levels will be the first major test of the interim Dike thrown up in September 2005. (if the dike were still there.) Current Lake Levels at Gimli

    May prove to be interesting as we've had several days of North wind tilting the lake southward.

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  35. Is there any chance of that rain band in North Dakota making it into Manitoba???

    Or is that dry east wind going to eat away at the rain band???

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  36. CORRECTION Lake Winnipeg Wind warning on my name or

    http://text.www.meteo.ec.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=04&siteID=08600

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  37. 12 hours of 25 to 30 Km east winds since 10pm last night increasing to 50Km by tonight. Waves reportedly crashing onshore to distances greater than September 2005. Wunderground site for South basin Buoy
    South Basin Wind and Wave info

    Jim

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  38. This Windfinder web site on my name for Gimli Harbor shows waves and wind at 15Knots and 5feet.

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  39. Looks like a general 25-50 mm across ND yesterday.. even as far north as GFK. Glad we missed that one.. Models continue to indicate we won't be as lucky with the next system later this week. Ensembles giving Winnipeg a 50% chance of seeing at least 25 mm Friday into Saturday, with a 25% chance of less than 15 mm or more than 45 mm.

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  40. Rob!

    You may never have to change the headline -"More rain on the rain"
    untill winter time! LOL

    We can discuss the rain potential for the next two months!

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  41. An all source Precipitation Map (Topographical ) of ND and Southern MB & SK for the previous 24 hours, and numerous locations is located on my name .

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  42. The 5 day QPF maps each week on your Precip page are starting to resemble the Snow Water Equivalents for an entire winter.

    Time for estimates Rob

    More or less than 15 25 35 50 75mms this weekend

    Jim

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  43. EC seems confident that low clouds will hold... However satellite shows low clouds eroding along western RRV with only a band of mid level clouds so models seem to be overdoing low level moisture.

    Once that band of mid level clouds (associated with warm front at 700 hPa) moves out temps will likely fall under mainly clear skies... 6 C seem too optimistic for a low.

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  44. Well kudos to EC. I too thought that skies would clear off and we would get much colder than the forecasted 6C. Skies did remain mostly cloudy and temperatures dropped to the +6C as forecasted. I guess that is why they are the meteorologists and we aren't, eh Daniel.

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  45. With Environment Canada 11:00 Am update they call for 10 -15 mm tomorrow evening into tomorrow night and there is a good chance of getting that much on Friday!

    So rainfall totals for Winnipeg with this next system could approach 30 mm!

    Hopefully not!

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  46. I am happy our temperatures didn't tank last nite.. too early to be dealing with frost. The purpose of this blog is not compete with EC or compare who is more accurate but rather to enhance or fine-tune their forecasts thru our feedback since they have limited time/resources. You can find many examples where our feedback provided an improvement on the forecast issued from EC.

    Cases where there is a relatively weak surface ridge and low level moisture trapped underneath are very tricky... in some cases we clear out and in others we don't. With the main high remaining well up in northern Manitoba and ground level moisture flux from recent heavy rains, the low clouds couldn't quite get scoured out locally. However note that temps in the western RRV as close to Brunkild did drop down into the danger zone. Some lows from CWS mesonet (Manitoba ag will available tomorrow):

    Morden: 3.8 C
    Brunkild SW: 2.9 C
    Winkler: 2.2 C

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  47. I look to this blog particularly for Forecasts which differ from EC and other public broadcasters especially with respect to hazardous weather.

    It was important for us to know last night that there was potential for very low temperatures in connection with certain plants we grow..and we acted on it immediately

    Thanks Daniel for the heads up. Acted immediately and consider it time well invested.

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