Saturday, September 25, 2010

Upcoming pattern change signals trend to warmer drier weather for the Prairies

Our cool and wet September is drawing to a close, but it looks like some warmer and drier weather will finally be moving in for the last few days of the month. A persistent storm track over the northern US has brought several significant rainfall events over southern Manitoba over the past 4 weeks, with 100-250 mm of rain across the Red River valley during that time. The suppressed jet stream has also maintained cooler than normal temperatures through the period with only 2 days reaching the 20C mark in Winnipeg this month. But a long awaited pattern change is finally beginning this weekend, and long range models are suggesting drier and warmer than normal conditions will persist across the Prairies through the first week of October. (see 6-10 day outlook from CPC)

In the short term, early morning cloud and fog patches will give way to sunshine and pleasant temperatures today, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper teens along with light winds. Even warmer conditions are expected Sunday as gusty south winds to 60 km/h push temperatures into the low to mid 20s across southern MB, possibly the warmest day of the month so far. A weak cold front will pass through Monday with a slight chance of showers, followed by sunny skies and 20C temperatures Tuesday. Dry but slightly cooler weather is expected for the end of the week as high pressure builds over the eastern Prairies. Long range models continue to indicate the development of a large upper ridge over the Prairies during the first week of October, bringing a spell of warm and dry weather to southern Manitoba to start the new month. Here's hoping to warmer and drier weather in October!

29 comments:

  1. 28 C in Regina today!
    Is that hot air heading this way or will it bypass us to the south?

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  2. daniel..

    The really warm air came close to us today with 30C temperatures near the SK border. That warm air will occlude south of us tonight as a weak cold front passes though overnight. A little cooler tomorrow but still a nice day with above normal temps in the upper teens, and lighter winds than today so it should feel nicer. We get back into the gusty warm winds again Tuesday. Not crazy about these winds, but it sure will help dry things up a bit..

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  3. Absolutely great day including wind and next 5 as well!!

    Rob TD Matthew appears in a similar location to "Karl" in southern Mexico. Are we likely to see the remnants up here a la Karl last week?

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  4. Don..

    No, Matthew has dissipated over interior central America, and its moisture is not expected to track northward like Karl's did. Also, with a large scale upper ridge building over western North America, it would push any moisture from the south away from us. We're looking good! :)

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  5. High of 23.0C at Winnipeg airport today.. warmest day of the month! Sad stat really, especially considering we had a record 19 days above 25C last September!

    Warmer to our west with 25-30C readings towards the SK border. Provincial hot spot was Dauphin at 30.2C!

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  6. Is it me or is the dewpoints today quite high for this time of year??

    Must have been all that rain we had contributing to the moist airmass!

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  7. I wonder how many places have to endure sustained winds of 70 kmh on a regular basis.. we had one nice day with lite winds to enjoy autumn before all the leaves were ripped from the trees.

    Quite a pattern change from the classic La nina type coniguration with strong temp gradient across central and northern plains and frequent Colorado lows.. to this huge western ridge. Wonder how persistent this set up will be and if other factors will be capable of offsetting this current La Nina

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  8. I am adding this posts graphic to the Are we Drowning or Freezing yet? solutions wall. Timely Rob !!

    Re the Ridge Daniel I vote for a 6 month stay.

    On a different note the RR at Grand Forks blu thru the 28.5 ft level and crest prediction early this a.m. New predictions were raised to 29.2 ft. but we were almost there an hour ago (28.96) Can U say 30?

    At Emerson the River just exceeded Oct 2008 record flows and I expect it to go higher in the next few days.

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  9. Rob!

    Have you noticed in the past few years things getting extreme in the weather More often around the world??

    Lets just take this past while for example!!

    Los angles hits 113 F yesterday! Hottest ever!
    Central Mexico has maybe 26 inches of rain causing massive landslide!
    Newfoundland getting slammed with IGOR with epic amounts of rain and wind!
    Exteme HEAT waves almost all corners of the globe!
    Even here in Winnipeg... Heavy rain events that one should see only once a year is now 3 times a year.

    It just seems like things are more extreme and more frequent!

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  10. A record warm and dry October would be welcome.

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  11. Here's a 15 day Mean Temp and Precipitation forecast that seems to start us in that direction.

    Normals for all of October in Winnipeg

    Mean Temp 5.3C or 41 F
    Rainfall 31.0 mm.


    Sept 28- Oct 15 2010 Forecast Mean Temps

    http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html


    Sept 28- Oct 15 2010 Forecast Precipitation

    http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec1.html

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  12. Hi everyone..

    Our local climate expert is trending toward a drier October as well... I read a weather update via accu-weather forums from a toronto weather blogger and his winter fcst fits most others I have seen which is for quite a bit colder than normal with average to abv snowfall. I am the minority but I welcome the cold and cant wait. I saw Whitehorse had almost a full day of light snow and temps in the 20s F Monday-Monday night

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  13. Dan.. you really should look into a Fairbanks posting! LOL!

    Good to see some dry weather for awhile. I'm encouraged to see CPC's pattern analogy ensemble includes some periods from the record warm October of 1963.. wouldn't that be a treat! However, you have to question the liklihood of that given a developing La Nina which would tend to flatten upper ridges over us.. but we'll take it while we can! I just would like to see some of that 25-30C warmth in SK and AB make it all the way to the RRV one of these days.

    daniel.. re: extreme weather this year. Yes, weather certainly has been making the headlines this year around the world. Is it a fluke that it happens to be affecting major population areas that makes it more newsworthy, or is it part of what climate change theorists have been predicting all along.. greater frequency of extreme weather? It certainly seems to be getting harder to refute their case..

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  14. I'm with Dan GF!
    I like my winters full of excitement!
    Lots of snowstorms and bitter cold!

    It's the worst that mother nature can throw at us is what made me interested in the weather in the first place!

    A winter with mild temps and little snow is no good for me!

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  15. You can add Wilmington, North Carolina to the places with extreme rainfall this year.. 400 mm over the past 3 days, and another 100-200 mm on the way tonight into Thursday!

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  16. WHOA!
    Are you sure your finger didn't slip and hit the wrong key Rob????

    Is that a typo???
    400 mm with another 100 - 200 mm

    Stunning!

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  17. Rob....Fairbanks wouldnt be bad...but thought it was too far away from the lower 48 and too far to visit my folks who lived down in Kentucky.

    Just wanted to pass on to you Rob that I appreciate your info on this blog and the webpage. I have offered your webpage to other NWS offices wanting to check into Canadian weather. We like esp the radar maps as they are better than weatheroffice.

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  18. Is Winnipeg even close to a record September rainfall? I noticed Vancouver will fall about 3mm short of their all-time record of 169mm. If not Winnipeg, maybe parts of SE Manitoba? They have really been drenched this month!

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  19. Thanks for the comments Dan-GF. Likewise, always appreciate your input from south of the border and your contribution to our discussions.

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  20. Re: record rainfall for September..

    Nowhere close to a record for Winnipeg.. Winnipeg airport has received about 90 mm of rain this month, almost twice the average for September, but well shy of the monthly record of 149.6 mm set back in 1941, followed by 148 mm in 1977. Southern and eastern parts of the city have been wetter with amounts of 100-120 mm, but still short of record rainfall totals.

    Further south of us, Morris has had about 150 mm so far this month according to the MB ag-wx site there. According to EC data, the wettest September in Morris since 1961 was 109 mm in 1977, so its the wettest September for them in at least 50 years. However, they may have had wetter Septembers prior to 1961 but climate records are incomplete for Morris before then. Note that Morris had a 100 mm deluge on August 30th as well, which likely puts them well into record territory if you look at the past 4 weeks.

    To our southeast, Sprague has had 156 mm this month, but they've had wetter Septembers including 202 mm in 1991, and 180 mm in 1941.

    Regardless of records or not, it's plenty wet out there, and this sunny windy weather sure has been a blessing for farmers, and everyone else for that matter!

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  23. Just north of Wilmington on the Neuse river about an hour from the east coast.

    Kinston NC Free Press lead Headline this morning

    --Rain Keeps Falling

    Flooding a concern with more rain


    The National Weather Service has put all of Eastern North Carolina under a flood watch through tonight. Kines estimated the Kinston area has received 7 inches in the past week, with between 1 and 3 inches expected before the storm moves out.

    IMSHM (In my sometimes Hazy Memory) After delivering assistance with both Canada and US donations to the RRV Spring 97 flood, they suffered major flooding in September and October 99. Almost 50 inches of rain in 4 Hurricanes {actually 3- as Floyd hit twice, Dennis and Irene in Sept 99). Kinston is also on a Flood Plain.

    Dan GF or anyone Where can I locate the Rainfall maps for these 3 Hurricanes.

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  24. Hurricane Dennis hit the NC coast twice not Floyd.

    Extreme Rainfall records are at
    NCDC Climate Extremes

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/rainfall.html#previous

    Hurricane Dennis stalled off Cape Hatteras from Aug 30 to Sept 3rd
    5 to 13 inches of rain

    Hurricane Irene October 14th to 19th
    12 inches in Eastern NC

    Hurricane Floyd September 14th 18th
    Wilmington reports new 24-hour station rainfall record (128 year record) with 13.38 inches and over 19 inches for the event.

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  25. Appears that rain/snow gauges are not the only recorders of unusual and often unbelievable phenomena. The Red River runs uphill and upstream according to the City of Winnipeg Live website.

    Winnipeg River Levels

    or
    http://www.winnipeg.ca/publicworks/pwddata/riverlevels/

    Jim

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  26. Jim

    Only thing I could find attm was on the NWS Newport NC website which does serve the Kinston area. It has maps, and rainfall info on Hurricane Floyd in commeration of the 10th anniversary of the flooding event held last year.

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  27. Rob!
    Why does Environment Canada change or update the forecast over such minor things
    Perfect Example.
    11:00 Am says a high of 16
    11:26 AM says a high of 12
    12:37 PM says a high of 12 with a mix of sun and cloud!

    Sometimes I 've seen them make changes to the forecast when they had it right it the first time as in this case changing the temperature!!

    Watch the temperature might hit 16 C today??? LOL

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  28. Thanks Dan. I also found this site which includes Major centers in NC for all three Hurricanes in 1999. My Name or

    http://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/wri004093/rainfall.html

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