Our cool and wet September is drawing to a close, but it looks like some warmer and drier weather will finally be moving in for the last few days of the month. A persistent storm track over the northern US has brought several significant rainfall events over southern Manitoba over the past 4 weeks, with 100-250 mm of rain across the Red River valley during that time. The suppressed jet stream has also maintained cooler than normal temperatures through the period with only 2 days reaching the 20C mark in Winnipeg this month. But a long awaited pattern change is finally beginning this weekend, and long range models are suggesting drier and warmer than normal conditions will persist across the Prairies through the first week of October. (see 6-10 day outlook from CPC)
In the short term, early morning cloud and fog patches will give way to sunshine and pleasant temperatures today, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper teens along with light winds. Even warmer conditions are expected Sunday as gusty south winds to 60 km/h push temperatures into the low to mid 20s across southern MB, possibly the warmest day of the month so far. A weak cold front will pass through Monday with a slight chance of showers, followed by sunny skies and 20C temperatures Tuesday. Dry but slightly cooler weather is expected for the end of the week as high pressure builds over the eastern Prairies. Long range models continue to indicate the development of a large upper ridge over the Prairies during the first week of October, bringing a spell of warm and dry weather to southern Manitoba to start the new month. Here's hoping to warmer and drier weather in October!