Wednesday, September 08, 2010

Storm system threatens significant rainfall Friday

The next storm system coming off the Pacific ocean is forecast to intensify over the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves into the Dakotas and eastern Prairies by Friday. This system will tap an increasingly moist and unstable airmass over the US plains generating widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms as it moves eastward. Rain is expected to move into the Red River valley Thursday night and continue through Friday into Friday night before moving into NW Ontario. At this point, models are indicating a fairly good chance of seeing at least 25 mm of rain with this system over the Red River valley, with amounts of 50 mm possible in some areas. Ditches and fields remain waterlogged across the valley thanks to heavy rains over the past 10 days (100-150 mm).. and it's becoming increasingly difficult to dry up this ground moisture as we get into the fall with weaker sunshine and cooler weather. This next system will further delay chances of drying out appreciably before winter freezeup.


  1. It seems premature to declare a climate prediction accurate but look at the Graphic {On my Name}

  2. Rob!

    With this upcoming storm system Winnipeg could go well beyond the average rainfall for the month!

    Could it be possible that we might be almost double the average when this system is all said and done>?

  3. Average September precip in Winnipeg is 52 mm. We've had 33 mm so far (airport), and with another 25 mm or so tomorrow, we'll be above our monthly average only 10 days into the month. But we'd have to get quite a bit rain Friday (50-70 mm) to double our monthly average at this point. FYI, wettest September on record in Winnipeg was way back in 1872 at 156.2 mm (that included 18 cm of snow!) followed by 1941 at 149.6 mm. Hopefully we don't test those records..

    Models still pointing to a general 25 mm event over the RRV Friday, with locally heavier amounts of 30-50 mm possible in some areas. That will depend on where convection sets up overnight through Friday morning when the heaviest rain is expected over the RRV. Good strong moist southerly flow will give the chance of locally heavier bands of rainfall with training north-south convective cells. Models hinting that heaviest amounts may be over the Interlake areas north of Winnipeg..

  4. Did I read that right????
    18 cm of snow in September???

    I was unaware that we could get that much snow in September!
    Must of been a FREAK of nature.

  5. Rain moving in quite quickly from North Dakota!!!

    Is that a warm front that is causing the first band of rain???

  6. We could pick up 15 mm of rain just in that first band of rain!

    1/2 inch rainfall rates could be possible if that batch of rain holds together!

  7. ND Tornado Watches, including Minot and Crosby near the Cdn Border. Tornado Warning at Dickenson. Severe Tstorm Watch and warnings, Flood Watches and advisories including Fargo,

    Is any of this heading our way??

  8. For North Dakota Links Click on my name for western ND and select the EAST arrow on the graphic

  9. NO watches or Warnings in Sask or Manitoba but severe watches immediately on the other side of that imaginary line.

    This reminds me of Manitoba's refusing to test for Lime Disease reportedly because we didn't have any reported cases. Minnesota and ND were having several new cases monthly in the border counties.

    It appears this Ostrich like behavior (head in sand) didn't work for MB Health and they are now running an extensive educational ad campaign three years later.

    If some of this weather does arrive I trust EC will be quicker than MB Health to recognize the problem and provide warnings.


  10. Is that another 40mm of rain in Morris?

    They have had 175mm in just over a a week. Rob your site records 203 in all of 2006??

    Dan P may be on to something.

  11. Kudos to Transport Canada for opening the Curtain at Lockport and dropping the river 2-3 feet in the City.

  12. And kudos for EC not issuing any severe thunderstorm bulletins last night, despite anon Jim's ignorant Sept. 9/6:42 PM post.

  13. Rob!

    I see you picked up around 30 mm with this storm system so far!

    Looks like the models did a good job with this rain event!

  14. Whiteshell area just getting deluged! Are there any stations there besides Pinawa? I'm sure some locales will get 100mm+.

  15. Looks like general rainfall amounts of 25 to 35 mm across Winnipeg and the RRV so far, with 35 to 50 mm over the SE corner from Sprague to Falcon Lake. The bulk of the rain is over for the RRV with a few showers this afternoon giving another 5 mm or so, but the far east could end up with 50 to 70 mm in total. The good news is models are not indicating any significant rainfalls after this system over the next week or so (a few scattered showers at times but nothing much). The bad news (except for Dan GF :) is that it will be chilly with below normal temps.

  16. Don't you just love cherry pickers? Especially ones that hide from scrutiny by not even posting their names...ehhhh anonymous?

  17. According to most of the models it looks like a blocking pattern starting to set up which will help spill chilly air into the area as Rob has mentioned earlier!

    So which night will be the night we get our first killing freeze??

  18. Daniel - really? You're going to slam the anonymity of my message rather than the content? If you care to know, my name is Doug and I don't have a blogger account, so that's why I posted as Anon.

    But let me reiterate: I'm getting tired of the ignorant bashing of EC here when it's not warranted. I have friends who work at the office and I know for a fact that they were watching the system with hawk eyes, and that they knew that the storms wouldn't be severe once reaching Canada. I was pointing out the fact afterwards, lest people think that everyone agrees with the gratuitous EC bashing.

  19. ANON Jim says

    No offense was intended and I hope none was taken. My apologies if there were.

    Thats why the comment said "I trust EC to advise us". I also trust that if some one knowledgeble disagrees with EC we will see a comment here. When loved ones live within 10 miles of the Border and they don't have the media resources we do to access, EC is the only source of warning. It is a concern and if you asked your friends, I suspect a concern of theirs with the limited resources they have locally and the vast area they have to report on.

    I also use ANON and sign Jim when I'm rushed to log off. In this case the Appt with the vet to remove an infected tick was the motivation for both the signoff ANON and the analogy.