tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post7683072911666791987..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: More rain on the way..Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-13691543260929473292010-09-08T22:30:42.116-05:002010-09-08T22:30:42.116-05:00Thanks DonThanks DonDanielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-14779707106173702262010-09-08T18:55:38.068-05:002010-09-08T18:55:38.068-05:00I look to this blog particularly for Forecasts whi...I look to this blog particularly for Forecasts which differ from EC and other public broadcasters especially with respect to hazardous weather.<br /><br />It was important for us to know last night that there was potential for very low temperatures in connection with certain plants we grow..and we acted on it immediately<br /><br />Thanks Daniel for the heads up. Acted immediately and consider it time well invested.Donnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-50990068925694729252010-09-08T17:20:49.766-05:002010-09-08T17:20:49.766-05:00I am happy our temperatures didn't tank last n...I am happy our temperatures didn't tank last nite.. too early to be dealing with frost. The purpose of this blog is not compete with EC or compare who is more accurate but rather to enhance or fine-tune their forecasts thru our feedback since they have limited time/resources. You can find many examples where our feedback provided an improvement on the forecast issued from EC.<br /><br />Cases where there is a relatively weak surface ridge and low level moisture trapped underneath are very tricky... in some cases we clear out and in others we don't. With the main high remaining well up in northern Manitoba and ground level moisture flux from recent heavy rains, the low clouds couldn't quite get scoured out locally. However note that temps in the western RRV as close to Brunkild did drop down into the danger zone. Some lows from CWS mesonet (Manitoba ag will available tomorrow):<br /><br />Morden: 3.8 C<br />Brunkild SW: 2.9 C<br />Winkler: 2.2 CDanielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-62059172946317082172010-09-08T11:03:52.976-05:002010-09-08T11:03:52.976-05:00With Environment Canada 11:00 Am update they call ...With Environment Canada 11:00 Am update they call for 10 -15 mm tomorrow evening into tomorrow night and there is a good chance of getting that much on Friday!<br /><br />So rainfall totals for Winnipeg with this next system could approach 30 mm!<br /><br />Hopefully not!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-39947629624049156192010-09-08T10:26:58.937-05:002010-09-08T10:26:58.937-05:00Well kudos to EC. I too thought that skies would c...Well kudos to EC. I too thought that skies would clear off and we would get much colder than the forecasted 6C. Skies did remain mostly cloudy and temperatures dropped to the +6C as forecasted. I guess that is why they are the meteorologists and we aren't, eh Daniel.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-91173047012430943892010-09-07T21:12:34.928-05:002010-09-07T21:12:34.928-05:00EC seems confident that low clouds will hold... Ho...EC seems confident that low clouds will hold... However satellite shows low clouds eroding along western RRV with only a band of mid level clouds so models seem to be overdoing low level moisture.<br /><br />Once that band of mid level clouds (associated with warm front at 700 hPa) moves out temps will likely fall under mainly clear skies... 6 C seem too optimistic for a low.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-55661029619388378222010-09-07T11:57:50.324-05:002010-09-07T11:57:50.324-05:00The 5 day QPF maps each week on your Precip page ...The 5 day QPF maps each week on your Precip page are starting to resemble the Snow Water Equivalents for an entire winter.<br /><br />Time for estimates Rob<br /><br />More or less than 15 25 35 50 75mms this weekend<br /><br />JimAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-85096148816800224512010-09-07T11:25:36.727-05:002010-09-07T11:25:36.727-05:00An all source Precipitation Map (Topographical ) o...An all source Precipitation Map (Topographical ) of ND and Southern MB & SK for the previous 24 hours, and numerous locations is located on my name .Jimhttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/content/weather/precipitation/precip_maps/webPrecipLarge.php?left_hydrology=precip_viewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-65327190984431664882010-09-07T11:13:36.852-05:002010-09-07T11:13:36.852-05:00Rob!
You may never have to change the headline -&...Rob!<br /><br />You may never have to change the headline -"More rain on the rain"<br />untill winter time! LOL<br /><br />We can discuss the rain potential for the next two months!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28082266363449441802010-09-07T08:02:42.570-05:002010-09-07T08:02:42.570-05:00Looks like a general 25-50 mm across ND yesterday....Looks like a general 25-50 mm across ND yesterday.. even as far north as GFK. Glad we missed that one.. Models continue to indicate we won't be as lucky with the next system later this week. Ensembles giving Winnipeg a 50% chance of seeing at least 25 mm Friday into Saturday, with a 25% chance of less than 15 mm or more than 45 mm.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-46771041588037910982010-09-06T13:44:01.070-05:002010-09-06T13:44:01.070-05:00This Windfinder web site on my name for Gimli Har...This Windfinder web site on my name for Gimli Harbor shows waves and wind at 15Knots and 5feet.Jimhttp://www.windfinder.com/report/gimli_harbour_lake_winnipegnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-84172489479193660042010-09-06T12:00:47.666-05:002010-09-06T12:00:47.666-05:0012 hours of 25 to 30 Km east winds since 10pm last...12 hours of 25 to 30 Km east winds since 10pm last night increasing to 50Km by tonight. Waves reportedly crashing onshore to distances greater than September 2005. Wunderground site for South basin Buoy <br /><a href="http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/45140.html" rel="nofollow">South Basin Wind and Wave info</a><br /><br />JimAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-81378130476492615712010-09-06T11:35:26.481-05:002010-09-06T11:35:26.481-05:00CORRECTION Lake Winnipeg Wind warning on my name o...CORRECTION Lake Winnipeg Wind warning on my name or<br /><br />http://text.www.meteo.ec.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=04&siteID=08600Jimhttp://text.www.meteo.ec.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=04&siteID=08600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-69276372984039401342010-09-06T11:26:32.379-05:002010-09-06T11:26:32.379-05:00Is there any chance of that rain band in North Dak...Is there any chance of that rain band in North Dakota making it into Manitoba???<br /><br />Or is that dry east wind going to eat away at the rain band???daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-28815780591598392582010-09-06T11:25:33.943-05:002010-09-06T11:25:33.943-05:00TODAY 25 Knot east winds on lake Winnipeg south ba...TODAY 25 Knot east winds on lake Winnipeg south basin (EC warning on my name). Combined with record high lake levels will be the first major test of the interim Dike thrown up in September 2005. (if the dike were still there.) <a href="http://www.gov.mb.ca/waterstewardship/floodinfo/flow/lake_winnipeg_levels_2009-10.pdf#page=2" rel="nofollow">Current Lake Levels at Gimli</a><br /><br />May prove to be interesting as we've had several days of North wind tilting the lake southward.Jimhttp://www.agr.gc.ca/pfra/drought/maps/history/1993Accum.gifnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-72708672738237492782010-09-06T03:16:15.529-05:002010-09-06T03:16:15.529-05:00Hi
I must be one of the few on here who looks for...Hi<br /><br />I must be one of the few on here who looks forward to winter. I hate warm weather and hope we do have a very long and cold winter. All my readings indicate that...I always thought growing up I was destined to live in Yellowknife. <br /><br />We are in a long term -PDO and this supports much more La Nina times than El Nino. Of course there are a lot of other things going on besides those two which have an influence on our weather. It is a bit early to tell with Arctic Oscillation and PNA patterns. But I am getting excited to see the summer go...it was way too warm for me. I always wanted to work for Env Canada growing up....but oh well got close.Dan - NWS GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-454184724170959062010-09-05T14:36:49.064-05:002010-09-05T14:36:49.064-05:00Down to -1 C at Waskish, MN. Of course the disadv...Down to -1 C at Waskish, MN. Of course the disadvantage of having storm track further south... is that we are deeper into the colder air masses, and potential for an early frost/freeze is greater. <br /><br />Models really keep us with dry easterly flow as inverted trough over Saskatchewan weakens and main low moves up from Colorado. They even show the cloud line staying off to our SW.<br /><br />Will have to watch Wednesday night as weak high pressure builds in.. if clearing of wrap around clouds can occur we may be in danger of frost again.<br /><br />Overall I am surprised how quickly the storm track is slumping south with this La Nina pattern... I had visions of an above average September and October with a nice upper ridge from the Ontario/Manitoba border east... so much for that. With all the cooling projected in the Pacific, persistent low solar output, and possibly all that ash/ soot from fires in Russia and the Iceland volcano... we may well be in for a long, cold winter and yet another late spring :( I hope not.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-14795363548355114452010-09-05T11:51:24.079-05:002010-09-05T11:51:24.079-05:00Rob n Dan any sight of the next EL NINO??
A year ...Rob n Dan any sight of the next EL NINO??<br /><br />A year ago we didn't have a single hour in September in which it was below 10C for the first three weeks. Its hard to believe that only 12 months ago we completed (was it?) 9 consecutive months of below normal. Then it (EL NINO) began.. 12 months of alternating average or much higher temperatures. September 2009 17.7C Mean a record 5.4 degrees above NORM.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-53015801622626485882010-09-05T11:22:45.986-05:002010-09-05T11:22:45.986-05:00This beautiful sunny fall morning is only spoiled ...This beautiful sunny fall morning is only spoiled by the need to mow the lawn and the Mosquitoes lurking there.<br /><br />A few 0C to +3 days and 3 weeks of sunny dry weather should cure that.<br /><br />JimAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-79356632750890802532010-09-05T11:08:30.797-05:002010-09-05T11:08:30.797-05:00Rob n Dan.. Glad to see the rain moving south , es...Rob n Dan.. Glad to see the rain moving south , especially when the QPF for Monday is<br /> "A SWATH OF <br />LOCALLY (south central RRV) VERY HVY AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH A<br />SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCH AMTS AND ISOLATED 3 TO 5 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE<br />BEFORE THE STG FORCING EXITS THE REGION."<br /><br />A bit of deja vu as last Sunday? they called for the same North of Winnipeg only to have it soak us hereJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03903818436067284685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-63829457702020070092010-09-05T10:37:25.014-05:002010-09-05T10:37:25.014-05:00Low temperature down to 3C in Steinbach, and near ...Low temperature down to 3C in Steinbach, and near 0C in Marchand. I'm sure there was patchy frost around here this morning in low-lying areas with those temperatures.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10378918135776009197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-6355008160989115252010-09-05T07:13:01.585-05:002010-09-05T07:13:01.585-05:00Latest GLB has shifted the main rain axis with Mon...Latest GLB has shifted the main rain axis with Monday's system further south across ND, in line with the NAM/GFS solution.. so it looks like we'll be dry until Friday when the next system is forecast to move in. That system looks more significant and may be harder to miss out on precip. Could be seeing another 25 mm out of that one.. but hopefully the heaviest rain misses us.<br /><br />A tad too chilly for me this morning.. down to 3.7C at my place, with a couple of +1 to +2 readings nearby. Last September, we didn't have a low below 10c until the 22nd!robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-37505827256779540652010-09-05T01:26:49.778-05:002010-09-05T01:26:49.778-05:00Rob...
The trend has indeed been a bit farther so...Rob...<br /><br />The trend has indeed been a bit farther south as the short wave digs a bit farther south with each model run. Axis of heaviest pcpn seems to be more of a Bismarck to Fargo to Duluth line versus a bit farther north on earlier runs. This is as of Sunday early morning. <br /><br />Not quite as wet down here so can take some more rain without any problems. Our local climate person has been saying a wet fall with focus of heaviest rainfall over the southern red river basin. We will see if pattern continues but for the forseeable future it looks like it will.Dan - NWS GFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-61470522615038054042010-09-04T21:20:02.051-05:002010-09-04T21:20:02.051-05:00A lot of standing water in ditches and fields in s...A lot of standing water in ditches and fields in southwest Winnipeg.. which I suspect is the case across much of the Red River valley. We really need to get into a dry pattern the rest of the fall to make this water table go down appreciably before winters sets in.. <br /><br />I see the NAM and GFS are taking a more southern track on Monday/Tuesday's event.. which would keep the bulk of the rain south of Winnipeg and the RRV. GLB is further north and takes rain shield over Winnipeg Monday night through Tuesday with 10-25 mm forecast. Ensemble forecast gives us about 5 mm Monday night into Tuesday. Sure hope the southern trend continues.. we need a break from the wet weather!robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-2222338312362620302010-09-03T10:29:49.347-05:002010-09-03T10:29:49.347-05:00Browser problems switched to FF 3xxxx
and this act...Browser problems switched to FF 3xxxx<br />and this actually copies and wraps the end of the text.<br /><br /> http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=FGF&issuedby=FGF&product=HYD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0Jimhttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=FGF&issuedby=FGF&product=HYD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0noreply@blogger.com