Sunday, June 08, 2008

Cool unsettled week ahead

Enjoy the dry weekend.. things will be getting wetter by Monday, with cool and unsettled weather likely most of this week. A system will be crossing southern MB on Monday bringing a general 10-20 mm of rain across the area, with embedded thunderstorms possible. Another system moving across the Northern Plains is expected to bring another shot of rain into southern MB by Wednesday, with 10-20 mm possible again (possibly higher amounts due to convection) June is the wettest month on average in Southern MB as weather systems moving across midcontinent tap increasingly warmer and more humid air from the states and draw it northward, resulting in more frequent showers and thunderstorms across the southern Prairies.

41 comments:

  1. Lookin like a nice day! Already 26.3 outside here! Maybe we can get a few storms to fire off today!

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  2. Temperature here is on track to be the warmest of the year. Already 24.6, with the "record" for the year being 25.3 at my house. Dewpoint bouncing between 7 and 9 degrees, hopefully it won't go any lower. According to SPC MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000J/kg are already present across all of Southern Manitoba. Some good wind shear is still present in the South-East corner of the province. LI values of -9 are indicated by the RUC! If we could get a trigger, or more moisture some good convection could happen!

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  3. 2nd warmest this year at my house right now! 27.4 C!!!

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  4. Officially the warmest day of the year here, at 25.6 degrees! Not very impressive for early June, but warmth nonetheless. Some intense thunderstorms have sparked off in Western Manitoba, hopefully we will see some action farther East.

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  5. Looks like that cell around Carberry is developing a hook...similar to the storm a couple weeks ago?

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  6. Does look that way.. just getting into Doppler range now.. we'll see if there's any rotation noted. The relatively high bases of the storm would diminish the tornado threat.. but still possible. Last scan shows a bit of a right turn from the northerly track. Nice looking storm with an impressive core.. it's already produced golf ball size hail.

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  7. Officially the warmest day of the year here now also, at 28 degrees!

    That storm was looking interesting on radar alright. I haven't checked recently, so I don't know its status now.

    Turning to Southern Ontario, a potentially tornadic thunderstorm cell tracked either through or south of the London region. Tornado Warnings are in place.

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  8. Did you see that supercell as it crossed Lake Manitoba!!
    I wonder if that was over the lake I wonder if it produced a waterspout!!!
    Looks like the cells are almost stationary and training over the same area. Someone is getting a lot of rain!!!

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  9. Maybe tomorrow the Red River Valley will get a chance for some severe storms. Temperatures in the mid teens, and dewpoints around 10 will be similar to what Western Manitoba has today.

    Looks like later this week into next week we should transition into a much warmer and more summer-like pattern. Plenty of chances for severe storms appear to be in our future!

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  10. ROB!
    I have a feeling a thunderstorm could *POP* at anytime over the city!
    There seems to be a something that catches my eye on radar like a very narrow ribbon of precip. that the radar is picking up.
    The winds shifted from southern to more northern direction and that windshift is stalled over the city!!
    Could that be the focal point for a storm to form????
    The sky to the east is getting dark and it seems the radar returns are now coming from the southeastern direction!

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  11. Anyone get any rain amounts so far this morning??
    It sure is coming down in buckets again.

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  12. 18 mm so far at my site.. a good swath of 25-30 mm just south of Winnipeg through Sanford/Starbuck/Elm Creek areas..

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  13. I recorded 32.6mm, more than Friday.

    Looks like some possible severe storms this afternoon in South-Eastern Manitoba. Similar situation to Western MB/South-Eastern SK yesterday. CAPE already at around 1000J/kg in extreme South-East MB around the border. Looks like a good area of 500 to 1000J/kg will setup in the area, so something to watch.

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  14. Tornado watch posted in southern Manitoba!!
    Look out !!
    For cold core funnels!

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  15. A strong thunderstorm has just formed southeast of Winnipeg!!
    It is moving toward south Winnipeg.
    The sky sure is dark!

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  16. Scott!
    Looks like a cell has formed around your area!
    See anything interesting>>>???

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  17. Surprising how little thinning of the clouds was required to destabilize areas southeast of the main deformation band. Will be interesting to see if Winnipeg can tap into that instability.

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  18. I haven't seen anything, but I know that a funnel cloud was seen around Blumenort (about 2 minutes North of Steinbach).

    I hope something passes by

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  19. Can anyone tell me what a Funnel CLOUD WARNING is????
    That's what channel 48 is telling us!!!
    yes a funnel cloud WARNING!!!!

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  20. I collected 29 mm by 6:00 PM near the Grant/Kenaston interchange.

    We've finally learned how to rain again. Until last week I think we hadn't any soaker rains for a few years. Some years we had sufficient moisture, but it was all from storms. I like this much better.

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  21. 28 mm rain @ 7PM in my rain gauge in Westwood Wpg. Chris

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  22. I received 28.0mm at my location in East Transcona from last night to this evening.

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  23. WOW
    They are calling for another 20 MM
    of rain again tomorrow!
    I wonder if there could be any minor flooding problems tomorrow with all this rain of late.
    I know that just outside of city limits the ditches are full!!
    The Winnipeg airport has received 64 mm of rain since June 6.

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  24. They are calling for another 30mm here, we have enough rain now so STOP! I have recorded 62.0mm so far this month (within five days) enough is enough, I don't want mosquitoes, or water everywhere!!!

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  25. Southern Manitoba is looking to get hammered with heavy rain.
    30 -40 mm.
    OH
    did you see that high temp. for Regina tomorrow!!
    6 C
    Brrrr...... that is almost cold enough for SNOW!!!

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  26. In Montreal the severe thunderstorm warning says hail of 20cm or larger is possible, bit of a mistake there!

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  27. EC is now suggesting another 35 to 50mm may fall tomorrow, I hope that forecast is wrong!

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  28. Rob...

    Just saw your watch vs. warning article with the Steinbach media. Lots of people don't understand this difference, as was noted, it's good you are getting the word out about that!

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  29. anyone know if a "summer warm-up" is in sight in the near future at all?

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  30. Summer warm up???
    Maybe next month....

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  31. Numerous thunderstorms are starting to form in North Dakota!
    They will form a large area or rain and southern manitoba will get a monsoon out of this!!!

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  32. Two fairly distinct MCS' are affecting the northern plains/ eastern prairies. The one in Minnesota is clearly on the nose of a strong low level jet. The other in SE Sask/SW Man is forming under the influence of an upper low in Montana. The latter must have instability rooted at a very high level.

    Models show the surface and 850 MB lows moving northwards as the upper low cartwheels east. As the this happens the main moisture supply gets cut off well to the southeast. Will be interesting to see how much precip the southeast gets.

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  33. Models were hinting at this "bi-modal" precipitation distribution yesterday.. with the GEM way too moist joining the two max precip areas. Current radar showing little or no precip in between these main rain areas. Rainfall warning for western precip area over SW Manitoba with storm totals of 50-75 mm forecast. Latest forecast for Winnipeg has greatly diminished amounts for us tonight (now saying only 5-10 mm compared to 20-30 mm previously) although we could see heavier amounts of 15-20 mm if we see any elevated convection tonight moving up from the Dakotas.

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  34. SPC showing slight risk of severe storms in South-Eastern Manitoba tomorrow, hope that plays out...

    Dewpoints in the low teens, in combination with temperatures in the high teens/low twenties in South-Eastern Manitoba tomorrow will create SBCAPE values of 500 to 1200J/kg. With a good amount of wind shear, the low pressure system close by and daytime heating the stage could be set for some severe storms with possible large hail/damaging winds/slight risk of a tornado.

    This will bear watching.

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  35. Over 45 mm of rain recorded so far over far SW corner of province.. with rainfall rates of 5-10 mm/hr. Rain now moving up the Red River valley into Winnipeg as of 9:30 pm with rainfall rates of 2-5 mm/hr, heaviest rates mainly west of Winnipeg.

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  36. Glad we missed out on the heavy rain, the farmers definately don't need flooded fields, that is for sure!

    The latest WRF run continues to show a fairly solid risk of severe storms in Eastern ND, North-West MN, South-East MB. CAPE of 500 to 1000J/kg along with good wind shear will give a good threat of large hail. The tornado risk appears fairly low right now, but I wouldn't rule it out completely.

    As for warmth...According to the GFS by early next week we can expect the mercury to rebound into the mid to high twenties. We might even crack 30 for the first time this year by the end of the week. Along with that heat is a good chance of more severe storms, but lets not speculate about that...I am just ready for some above normal temperatures!

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  37. The severe weather risk will depend on how much sun, if any, can break out in the dry slot over SE MB. But the potential is certainly there..

    I'm up to 12 mm already as of 11:15 pm.. with another 5 mm possible before it ends overnight. That would give me almost 90 mm since last Friday, with over 100 mm over northeast parts of the city. So we're all agreed.. we've had enough rain? No more drought talk? Time for some warmth! Here's hoping those long range outlooks showing warmer temperatures next week work out!

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  38. Lots of sunshine out there now. Looks like we may get into the low twenties for temperatures today, especially in South-Central and South-Eastern Manitoba. SPC continues to promote a slight risk of large hail/damaging winds for the same area today. They have expanded their slight risk area to include all of Southern Manitoba from the Red River Valley East.

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  39. I emptied my rain gage Thursday morning and I had 19 mm near the Grant/Kenaston interchange.

    What is the right way to read a rain gage? Is the bottom of the meniscus the mark? That's what I've been doing.

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  40. Chris In Westwood Wpg.
    The wednesday 11th rain event was
    22 mm in my rain gauge.

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  41. Severe thunderstorm watch for the Red River Valley of North Dakota. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw that extended into Southern Manitoba within the next little while.

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