Unsettled weekend ahead.. wet Sunday likely for Dads and runners..

After some dry and pleasant weather this week, it looks like things will be getting more unsettled this weekend over Winnipeg and the Red River valley as a pair of weather systems affect the region. The first wave of precipitation is expected to move in Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of a warm front pushing up from North Dakota, possibly giving 5-10 mm to Winnipeg by Saturday afternoon (although some models are showing much less.. only a couple mm with the first wave). We'll get a bit of a break Saturday afternoon before another wave of rain moves in Saturday night into Sunday as a more potent system intensifies over northern Minnesota. That will likely bring steadier and heavier rain for Father’s Day (and the Manitoba Marathon) with 15-25 mm possible for Winnipeg. Not the best timing on the weekend, but the rain will be beneficial for farmers in the Red River valley, and most marathon runners would rather run in the rain than in the heat. Rain is expected to taper off later Sunday into Sunday night as the system pulls east.

Warm finish to May salvages slow start to spring..

Temperature departure from normal
for last week of May shows core of warmth
over northern Plains/southern MB (finally!)   

After a dreadfully long cold winter and slow start to spring, persistent warm weather finally returned to southern Manitoba for the end of May, with temperatures some 5-10C above normal over the last week of the month. The pattern change to warm weather was long overdue and finally signalled a break in the below normal temperature pattern that had persisted since last fall. Thanks to the late month warmth, the month finished with an average temperature of 11.3C, just 0.3C shy of normal for May (1981-2010 average of 11.6C)

The warm weather included the season's first 30C weather in Winnipeg, with highs of 33.3C on May 24th (record high) and 32.7C on May 29th. . These marked the hottest May days in Winnipeg since 1995 and the first time since 1995 that we've seen two or more 30C days in May. Amazingly, this hot weather came only 10 days after a trace of snow was recorded on the 14th, the only snow of the month. Rainfall for the month was only 42 mm at YWG airport.. about 75% of the normal May rainfall of 54 mm. All in all, a summer like end to May, much appreciated by long suffering residents of southern Manitoba!

For more details on May statistics, see JJ's Winnipeg Weather blog May summary.      

The heat is on! 30+C temperatures Saturday.. record highs possible

It's been a long wait, but summer like heat is finally back in southern Manitoba as a warm southerly flow draws up above normal temperatures over the province.  Under mainly sunny skies today, Winnipeg airport climbed to 29.6C, the warmest temperature here since last September 6th when it hit 33.6C. And tomorrow is looking even warmer as the peak of this warm airmass moves over southern Manitoba. Temperatures Saturday are expected to hit the 30C mark in Winnipeg and much of southern Manitoba, with values as high as 33C possible in some areas. If we do hit 30C, it will mark the first 30C day recorded in May in Winnipeg since May 2007 (31.3C on May 9th)  Some record high temperatures are likely Saturday in southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg which will challenge the record high of 32.7C for May 24th set in 1980. By Saturday afternoon and evening, a band of thunderstorms is expected to fire up over western Manitoba along a weak cold front which will push into the Interlake and northern RRV areas by evening. Locally heavy downpours, strong wind gusts and hail will be possible with some stronger storms before weakening Saturday night. Unsettled weather with scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected Sunday over Winnipeg and the Red River valley as the weak front slowly advances east.     

Warming trend into holiday weekend..

The week is off to a chilly start over southern Manitoba with single digit temperatures and even some snowflurries in Winnipeg early this morning. Skies are expected to clear off overnight allowing for sub-freezing temperatures by Thursday morning. Thursday should be a much nicer day with sunshine, light winds and afternoon highs around 11-12C.. still well below normal for this time of year (normal highs now are near 20C), but much better than today's brisk single digit temperatures. Tomorrow will signal the beginning of a warming trend that will take us into the Victoria Day holiday weekend with temperatures climbing to the 20C mark by Sunday along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Unfortunately, it looks like wet weather will be moving in for holiday Monday with showers and temperatures in the mid teens.

Unsettled week ahead..

The weather this week will become increasingly unsettled as a series of disturbances track across southern Manitoba. The first system will be spreading an area of rain or showers into southern Manitoba Tuesday, first across western Manitoba reaching Winnipeg and the Red River valley by midday or afternoon. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy across Winnipeg/RRV with about 5-10 mm possible through Tuesday night.. although heavier amounts of 15-25 mm are expected over parts of western Manitoba. Another disturbance is expected to bring a second round of showers across southern Manitoba later Wednesday into Wednesday night, with another 5-15 mm possible. Drier weather is expected Friday and Saturday, with near normal temperatures in the mid to upper teens possible. Unfortunately, it looks like another system will bring in wet weather for Mother's Day Sunday. All in all, a somewhat unsettled week ahead..  with temperatures trending towards normal by late week.