Thursday, June 12, 2014
Unsettled weekend ahead.. wet Sunday likely for Dads and runners..
After some dry and pleasant weather this week, it looks like things will be getting more unsettled this weekend over Winnipeg and the Red River valley as a pair of weather systems affect the region. The first wave of precipitation is expected to move in Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of a warm front pushing up from North Dakota, possibly giving 5-10 mm to Winnipeg by Saturday afternoon (although some models are showing much less.. only a couple mm with the first wave). We'll get a bit of a break Saturday afternoon before another wave of rain moves in Saturday night into Sunday as a more potent system intensifies over northern Minnesota. That will likely bring steadier and heavier rain for Father’s Day (and the Manitoba Marathon) with 15-25 mm possible for Winnipeg. Not the best timing on the weekend, but the rain will be beneficial for farmers in the Red River valley, and most marathon runners would rather run in the rain than in the heat. Rain is expected to taper off later Sunday into Sunday night as the system pulls east.
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A line of thunderstorms right over Winnipeg this afternoon giving us some good downpours.. I'm up to 10 mm as of 2:15 pm. Very close lightning strike about an hour ago shook the house here in Charleswood.
ReplyDeleteRob, a more thunderstorms in the works for Winnipeg tonight?
ReplyDeleteNext batch of showers and thunderstorms are over North Dakota and will likely spread northeast to affect southeast Manitoba.. mainly from Emerson to Sprague.. so I think Winnipeg will miss out on this next batch of storms. It was just a fluke that this narrow band of elevated storms this afternoon fired up right over the city.. just ahead of the warm front to our south. The perimeter force field was likely de-activated by the Red River Ex! :)
DeleteStill a lot of uncertainty about how much rain Winnipeg will see Sunday.. could be anywhere from 10 to 40 mm depending on where convection fires up overnight with the storm system pushing up into Minnesota. At this point, looks like the heaviest amounts will be southeast of Winnipeg with amounts up to 50 mm possible closer to the Ontario border and parts of the Interlake, but can't rule out some heavier downpours here Sunday with a good 15-25 mm soaking. Lesser amounts expected as you head southwest of the city.
Rain totals are really starting to add up at your place Rob, 22 mm now and still coming down at a good rate!!
ReplyDeleteHeaviest amounts in the city have been in the north and northeast end.. approaching 40 mm now in East St Paul area. 40 to 45 mm northeast of the city towards Selkirk and Beausejour..
DeleteRain intensity easing up now but rain/showers still likely tonight with another 5-10 mm likely in the city. Then more rain tomorrow.. but latest guidance suggesting bulk of Sunday's rain will be east and north of Winnipeg. Hope so. We had more than enough with this first soaking!
45 mm up to 8 pm today at my place, 69 mm since yesterday. Officially 37 mm at the airport as of 8 pm (2 day total of 66 mm) and 40 mm at the Forks (66 mm weekend total) Rain gradually tapering off now and should end from the southwest to northeast over the next hour or two.
ReplyDeleteFinally a decent rain for a change
ReplyDeleteFinal weekend total of 69 mm at YWG airport, with 40 mm Sunday and 29 mm Saturday. The Forks had 45 + 26 = 71 mm total. Here at my site, 48 + 24 = 72 mm total.
ReplyDeleteAreas just northeast of the city had even more thanks to that training band of thunderstorms that set up on Saturday. Beausejour received 47 mm Saturday + 46 mm Sunday into early Monday, for a storm total of 93 mm. A COCORAHS observer near Lockport reported 70 mm Saturday + 47 mm Sunday for a weekend total of 117 mm.
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeleteAre there any statistics for total rainfall in a single rain event? If there are, what would the highest numbers be for Winnipeg since records were kept?
I don't have much info on multi day rainfall events, but if you go by single day totals, Winnipeg has had some impressive events. Since records began in 1872, there have been 7 occurrences of more than 80 mm in one day (1 in June, 2 in July, 3 in August and 1 in September) and 2 days with more than 100 mm in one day, including 133.6 mm on July 12 1914, and 152.4 mm on June 26, 1901.. Winnipeg's greatest 1 day rain total ever.
DeleteFor a multi day event, the rainstorms of July 24-26 1993 has to rank as one of the wettest events ever for the city. The airport recorded 115 mm over that 3 day period, but SE parts of the city had up to 195 mm. The city of Winnipeg has a rainfall map for that event, which caused a lot of flooding.
http://www.winnipeg.ca/waterandwaste/pdfs/drainageFlooding/rainfallReports/1993July24-26_acc.pdf
Looks like there will be multiple chances for severe thunderstorms later this week. Wednesday also marks the return of more summerlike temperatures and there are hints that next week will hot or at least part of it.
ReplyDeleteWeekend rainfall total in east Charleswood was 71.5 mm
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteWhat does this weekend look like? First rain all weekend and now going to miss?
Weekend is not looking too bad.. certainly not as wet as last weekend. There is a chance of showers or thunderstorms both days, but generally just scattered hit and miss stuff. It will be unstable enough for some locally heavier showers and thunderstorms, but much of the weekend is looking pretty decent with warm temps.
DeleteRob, I see 103 mm of rain at your place, so far this month. Looks like more on the way today and tomorrow. This is turning out to be a very wet month. Perfect breeding grounds for the mosquitos.
ReplyDeleteIm just north of st. Andrews airport. Bigger than golf ball hail saturday night. Smashed all the siding and eaves. Neighbor had his windows broken. Even light bulbs didnt make it. Crazy stuff!
ReplyDeleteSaw some photos of that hail on Twitter.. wild stuff!
DeleteHow is it looking in terms of us getting any t-shirts today or eve?
ReplyDelete