Friday, May 23, 2014
The heat is on! 30+C temperatures Saturday.. record highs possible
It's been a long wait, but summer like heat is finally back in southern Manitoba as a warm southerly flow draws up above normal temperatures over the province. Under mainly sunny skies today, Winnipeg airport climbed to 29.6C, the warmest temperature here since last September 6th when it hit 33.6C. And tomorrow is looking even warmer as the peak of this warm airmass moves over southern Manitoba. Temperatures Saturday are expected to hit the 30C mark in Winnipeg and much of southern Manitoba, with values as high as 33C possible in some areas. If we do hit 30C, it will mark the first 30C day recorded in May in Winnipeg since May 2007 (31.3C on May 9th) Some record high temperatures are likely Saturday in southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg which will challenge the record high of 32.7C for May 24th set in 1980. By Saturday afternoon and evening, a band of thunderstorms is expected to fire up over western Manitoba along a weak cold front which will push into the Interlake and northern RRV areas by evening. Locally heavy downpours, strong wind gusts and hail will be possible with some stronger storms before weakening Saturday night. Unsettled weather with scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected Sunday over Winnipeg and the Red River valley as the weak front slowly advances east.
Posted by rob at 5:34 PM
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Earlier in the month we were worried if we were even going to hit 20C by mid May and now at the end of May we are sitting at 20C at 1:00 in the morning!! How things have turned around!!ReplyDelete
Down sloping winds off the Riding Mtns already pushing temperatures up to 28C in Dauphin and McCreary as of 9 am. Here in Winnipeg, we're 4C warmer than this time yesterday, so we should easily surpass the 30C mark this afternoon.. record high of 33C quite possible. Stay cool!ReplyDelete
A humidex of 31 in Winnipeg at 11 AM. Definitely starting to feel the humidity out there!!ReplyDelete
Oh boy, the return of the Drifting Snow METAR decode!ReplyDelete
Does that whenever OCNL is mentioned in the METAR for YWG. Wish I could fix that in the coding..Delete
At least nobody can complain about the lack of thundershowers. It hasn't stopped thundering since noon.ReplyDelete
I can't believe we broke a record today in Winnipeg. The temperature sure has dropped since the thunderstorms moved in!!ReplyDelete
A high of 33.3C in Winnipeg today.. a new record high for the day, and the hottest May day here in almost 20 years since a 33.7C reading on May 30 1995. Swan River was the national hot spot at a sizzling 35.4C today.ReplyDelete
That 35.4C in Swan River is the warmest temperature recorded in Canada this year. Also the first (and to date) only 35C+ reading.ReplyDelete
With all this rain and heat, things have really greened up here in Winnipeg!!ReplyDelete
The forest behind my house exploded with leaf growth in just 3 days. So nice to see leaves again!Delete
Have we seen the end of that string of consecutive months below normal temp?ReplyDelete
Hopefully, this is the start of a more normal pattern into the summer and fall, but I'm not going to get too far ahead. Mother Nature hasn't been too trustworthy for awhile. As for this month, May has averaged 9.5C at YWG airport as of the 25th. Even with the warmer weather the rest of the month, we'll likely finish around 10.5-11C, just shy of the normal May average of 11.5C. But at least it's not as below normal as the last few months have been.Delete
33.3C with a mean of 24.6 and below mormal definitely dont belong in the same May blog. Only in The Peg.lolReplyDelete
Those thunderstorms in Southwest Manitoba have severe thunderstorm warnings on them and are looking quite intense on radar. Tornadoes also observed in North Dakota this evening!!ReplyDelete
Rob Occasionally We have all 4 seasons or at least 3 in a very short time period eg last November.However Ive quit complaining (boasting) after watching a weeks weather near odessa and midland Texas. A week ago they were suffering as all of west texas was in a Drought for the ages.A hard freeze warning occurred mid week just after a weekend of trple digit his A weather change.bringing severe winds produced fire and red flag warnings the next day or two. This was followed by monsoon rains Flash flood warnings Flood warnings and tonight Tornado warnings to 11 pm At one time during the weekend the storm had dropped six inches of rain in a few hours and they were warned there wouod be another two inches before it would stop with another 1 to two inches in the following day. And now Tornado warnings. Im beginning to believe everything is bigger in Texas At least their weather is. DonReplyDelete
A little closer to home and In a typical texas Oil camp. we have the Watford ND Trnado at 7:50 PM last eve.Delete
Rob, looking like it could quite a late afternoon and evening in Southern manitoba tomorrow.ReplyDelete
Although it seems that the tornado risk is mainly west of Winnipeg, will severe storms be possible here in Winnipeg tomorrow night?
Doesn't look likely at this point.. best chance for severe storms this evening will be mainly over western MB spreading into the Interlake regions tonight. We could see some storms spill over into Winnipeg overnight but they would likely be in a sub severe state with a diminishing wind and hail threat. Storms in SK were strongly capped yesterday which will likely be a factor again today for southern MB until this evening.Delete
Remnant convection from overnight storms to our west spreading lots of cloud over Winnipeg this morning with a chance of some weakening showers making it here by midday. So that mainly sunny forecast not looking likely today. Hopefully we can get some sunshine returning this afternoon as convective debris cloud thins out. If not, we won't make that 30c high either. Still looking like storms firing up over western MB this evening with mainly a wind and hail threat similar to southern Sask last night..ReplyDelete
Well, daytime heating and sunshine is not a problem today as it turns out in Southern Manitoba.....there's plenty of it. Capping, well that's another issue all together, although I do think it will be eliminated later.ReplyDelete
Yes, that morning debris cloud eroded quickly.. and that has allowed our temperatures to rocket with the sunshine.. already 31C! We seem to be overachieving with our highs lately... nice to see!Delete
Even so, we're well capped today, and it will be late day or evening before cap breaks out west. Storms should quickly become linear with mainly a hail and wind threat.
Rob, maybe this is one of those types of questions you hate, but why does the CAP exist? Why is it there or not there sometimes? What determines its strength? (seems like most of the time there is a cap since if there wasn't we'd be having a lot more violent storms).ReplyDelete
The cap (or layer of warm air above the surface) is very common in summertime, especially with a southerly flow that allows warm air aloft to spread north. So the cap exists because it's a common feature of warm days. Some days it's not as pronounced, other days there's much warmer air aloft that strengthens the cap.. it all depends how strong the winds are aloft and how much warm air there is to feed on.Delete
But caps can be broken by strong forcing (like a strong cold front), extra heating or surface moisture (to overcome the cap) or just cooler air aloft coming in.. so, a cap doesn't necessarily mean a death blow to any thunderstorm development.
Rob, are we at looking at similar scenario here in Southern Manitoba tonight like in SSK last night with a potential MCS moving eastward overnight.ReplyDelete
Yes, I think so.. I think there's a good chance of an MCS squall line of storms developing over western MB this evening and spreading east tonight. Given the strong southerly flow in all levels, the worst of it will likely move north of Winnipeg.. but we could catch the tail end overnight.Delete
3:19 PM CDT Thursday 29 May 2014ReplyDelete
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for:
City of Brandon
R.M. of Cornwallis west of Shilo including Chater
R.M. of Elton including Forrest
R.M. of North Cypress including Carberry and Melbourne
R.M. of North Norfolk including MacGregor Sydney and Austin
R.M. of Oakland including Wawanesa and Carroll
R.M. of South Cypress including Glenboro and Treesbank
R.M. of South Norfolk including Treherne and Notre Dame
R.M. of Victoria including Holland and Cypress River
Severe thunderstorm conditions possible - late afternoon to after midnight.
Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms that may be capable of producing strong wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain.
A cold front over southeastern Saskatchewan is forecast to push into southwest Manitoba this evening. This front is expected to trigger a band of thunderstorms, some of which may become severe with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning are also possible. Thunderstorms are expected to move east into the Interlake regions tonight and the watch area may be expanded east if storms remain strong.
Rob, what was the official high today at Winnipeg airport?? I'm thinking you are just loving this weather....ReplyDelete
High of 32.7C at YWG airport.. first time since 1995 that we've had 2 or more 30C days in May. And yes, I'm loving it!Delete
Any word on rainfall amounts in the southwest corner of MB with the evening storms? It looked like there were some heavy thunderstorms training in the Melita area, so there may be some fairly impressive totals.ReplyDelete
Melita picked up about 40 mm in those storms, along with quarter size hail. That's the most I saw, although radar suggests there could gave been locally higher amounts of 50 mm or more between Melita and Neepawa.Delete
A disappointing end to an active week unless you live in western MB. Its still early (and this was said last year lol) but I'm hoping (have been for the last 3 years) that its not going to be one of those years again. Storm lovers who don't travel to them have been deprived for far too long! Go figure now the action skips right over us and re-developing over the Dakotas and Minnesota, with nothing in the long range now. Glad we got a good storm last week at least, much earlier than last year. I'll take it.ReplyDelete
Odd forecast for Winnipeg today.. A mix of sun and cloud. Becoming cloudy near noon.ReplyDelete
It's already cloudy this morning.. with gradual clearing this afternoon.. totally opposite to the forecast.
Rob Will this be our "Norm" now 3 to 7 day outlooks which include winter ending late tuesday followed by a half day of spring and then by intense summer weather at the end of the week Come to think of it thats how winter started last November.Those who love a break before and after Mosquito/Consruction season are disappointed. lolReplyDelete
The Headline in the Free Press says it all atDelete