March 4th storm summary - Red River valley buried under heavy snow

A winter storm system tracking from southern Alberta into North Dakota brought an extensive swath of snow over the southern Prairies Sunday into early Tuesday.  In southern Manitoba, snow from this system spread over SW Manitoba Sunday evening, and became heavy at times overnight into Monday across much of southern Manitoba especially over the southern and western RRV. By Tuesday morning, impressive snowfall totals were recorded from this storm including..

March 4 storm snowfall accumulations
image credit: A Weather Moment

Miami ................. 56 cm
Carman ............... 42 cm
St Alphonse ........ 38 cm
Morris ................. 35 cm (est)
Morden/Winkler ... 33 cm
Emerson ............... 33 cm
Pilot Mound .......... 25-30 cm 
Brandon ................ 20-30 cm
Portage ................  24 cm
Winnipeg ............. 12-19 cm



In Winnipeg, general amounts of 15 cm were reported with up to 19 cm in the southwest part of the city (Charleswood)  The snowfall has added to an already impressive snowpack in the Red River valley, with snow depths now in the 50-65 cm range across much of the valley. This represents one of the deepest snow covers in the RRV since the spring of 1997, which preceded the valley's "Flood of the Century" that year.

Radar capture from 10 am Monday March 4th, showing an intense snowband that moved over Winnipeg between 930 am and 11 am. The band produced 5 cm in one hour at my location in Charleswood between 940 and 1040 am.  (see photo right taken at 10 am at my location) Snowfall ended after this band went through then picked up again in the afternoon through Monday night. I picked up 11 cm by Monday evening, with another 8 cm Monday night for a storm total of 19 cm.  

Snow spreading into southwest MB this evening.. arriving in Winnipeg towards midnight

A slow moving low pressure system over southwest Saskatchewan is bringing an extensive area of snow across the southern Prairies from the Rockies into southeast SK. This area of snow will be spreading across SW Manitoba this evening and into the Red River valley through the evening and into midnight. Snow will become heavy at times overnight and into early Monday, with 10-15 cm of snow possible by Monday morning south and west of Winnipeg. Snow will continue Monday across southern MB before tapering off Monday night into early Tuesday.  Snowfall warnings are in effect for all areas south and west of Winnipeg including Brandon, Portage La Prairie, Carman, Morden, Morris, Emerson, and Steinbach where storm totals of 15 to 25 cm are possible by Tuesday morning.

For Winnipeg, snow is expected to move in by midnight and increase in intensity overnight. About 2-5 cm of snow is possible by the morning commute, so give yourself extra time for the drive in Monday morning. Roads will be getting snow-covered and slippery, especially outside the city. Snow will continue Monday, moderate to heavy at times, with another 5-10 cm likely by the evening commute. So expect a slow commute home as well. Snow will begin to taper off Monday night into Tuesday morning, with another 2 to 5 cm possible before it ends. Storm snowfall totals of 10-15 cm are possible for Winnipeg between midnight tonight and Tuesday morning, with a risk of higher amounts if we get some stronger bands setting up over us. Snowfall warnings may be expanded to include Winnipeg if the storm tracks a little further north than currently forecast. Stay tuned on this developing winter storm system..   (Note: Winnipeg was added to snowfall warning on 5 am Monday morning update)

Keep track of snow spreading into southern MB using Radar Viewer from A Weather Moment.  Consult the MB Highways website for updated information on highway conditions over southern MB. Note also that winter storm warnings are in effect for North Dakota as well, where 20-30 cm is forecast south of the border, including Grand Forks.  

Winter storm system to impact southern MB Monday. Heaviest snow expected mainly south and west of Winnipeg

NAM prog valid 9 am Mon Mar 4
Low over North Dakota is
forecast to spread snow over
much of  southern MB and RRV

A storm system developing over southern Alberta is forecast to track into North Dakota Sunday bringing a swath of significant snowfall across much of southern Saskatchewan, North Dakota and portions of southern Manitoba.. especially to the south and west of Winnipeg.  A general 10-30 cm is forecast from southern Saskatchewan into North Dakota Sunday afternoon into Monday night, where winter storm warnings are now in effect. It looks like this system will also be bringing snow to southern MB, with the highest amounts expected over southwest MB and the southern RRV (including Emerson). Things become a little less clear as to how far north and east the snow from this system will spread, with varying opinions about how much snow will fall in Winnipeg. Some models are suggesting snow will get into the city with 10-15 cm or more possible Monday. Other models are saying the system will graze us, with minimal snowfall forecast. At this point, it looks like Winnipeg will be seeing some snow overnight Sunday through Monday with 5-10 cm possible, with greater amounts likely south of the city. However, this is still a developing system, and a slightly more northerly track will push heavier amounts of snow into Winnipeg, while a more southerly track will keep the snow mainly out of the city. Stay tuned on this storm system, and we'll keep you posted right here on any trends or changes as the system draws nearer. One thing's for sure.. if you have travel plans west or south of Winnipeg into North Dakota or western MB/eastern Saskatchewan late Sunday or Monday, be prepared for poor travelling conditions with snowcovered roads and poor visibility at times.

UPDATE: (11 am Sunday):  Snowfall warnings have been issued for SW Manitoba and southern RRV from Virden/Brandon areas to Morden/Emerson region. 10-25 cm forecast tonight through Monday. Warning area may be expanded northeast towards Winnipeg based on latest storm track and model guidance. Stay tuned for updated forecasts and warnings.   

Update: (330 pm Sunday) Snowfall warnings have been expanded to include areas from the Riding Mountains through St Rose, Gladstone, Portage, Carman, into Steinbach. 15-25 cm of snow possible tonight through Monday into early Tuesday.  Winnipeg currently NOT in the snowfall warning, but we will be getting snow, and it's possible the warnings may be extended further into the city.  Stay tuned for updated forecasts and warnings. (Winnipeg added to snowfall warning on 4:30 am Monday update)

NAM vs GEM re: snowfall projections over next 48 hours
(based on Saturday night model runs)

48 hr snowfall - NAM
valid 00z Sun - 00z Tue
green line is 7.5 cm
yellow line is 20 cm

48 hr snowfall - GEM
valid 00z Sun - 00z Tue
green line is 7.5 cm
yellow line is 20 cm

Updated Rob's Obs snowfall stats

Updated Rob's Obs snowfall stats
Winter of 2012/13  (as of Feb 27 2013)

February 2013 snowfall ..........  8.6 cm
Normal Feb snowfall .............. 14.2 cm
(1971-2000 normal - YWG airport)
Snowdepth as of Feb 27th .......  38 cm 

Seasonal snowfall to date:  Oct 1 2012 - Feb 27 2013

Total ..................................... 123.8 cm 
Normal (to end of Feb)..........   83.5 cm
Difference ............................. +40.3 cm (148% of normal) 
Normal winter snowfall .......... 110 cm  (1971-2000 normal - YWG airport)

2012-13 monthly snowfall summary (cm)

Month ............. snowfall .......... normal ..... difference 

OCT .................   3.2 ................ 5.0 ............ -   1.8    
NOV ................. 39.8 ............... 21.4 ........... + 18.4
DEC ................. 32.0 ..............  19.8 ........... + 12.2
JAN ..................  40.2 ..............  23.1 ........... + 17.1
FEB .................    8.6 ..............  14.2 ........... -    5.6

TOTAL ............123.8 .............   83.5 ........... + 40.3

NOTE: These snowfall observations are taken from my site in Charleswood, and do not necessarily reflect amounts for other parts of the city, including the Winnipeg airport. The airport no longer takes official snowfall measurements (one of the few major airports in Canada that doesn't) , and thus, the above snowfall statistics are considered official snowfall observations for Winnipeg.  I take volunteer snowfall measurements for Environment Canada at my climate station officially listed as Charleswood 2.  Station in operation since Nov 2004.

Staying nice and mild this week..

Dry and mild conditions have spread into southern MB with afternoon temperatures approaching the freezing mark in Winnipeg, and even some above freezing readings over parts of southern MB. The pleasant weather is forecast to continue much of the week with highs in the zero to minus 5 range and little in the way of precipitation forecast. The increasing daylight and strengthening sun is finally making it feel more like spring out there.. after what has been a long and fairly gloomy winter.  Enjoy!