Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Updated Rob's Obs snowfall stats

Updated Rob's Obs snowfall stats
Winter of 2012/13 
(as of Feb 27 2013)

February 2013 snowfall ..........  8.6 cm
Normal Feb snowfall .............. 14.2 cm
(1971-2000 normal - YWG airport)
Snowdepth as of Feb 27th .......  38 cm 

Seasonal snowfall to date:  Oct 1 2012 - Feb 27 2013

Total ..................................... 123.8 cm 
Normal (to end of Feb)..........   83.5 cm
Difference ............................. +40.3 cm (148% of normal) 
Normal winter snowfall .......... 110 cm  (1971-2000 normal - YWG airport)

2012-13 monthly snowfall summary (cm)

Month ............. snowfall .......... normal ..... difference 

OCT .................   3.2 ................ 5.0 ............ -   1.8    
NOV ................. 39.8 ............... 21.4 ........... + 18.4
DEC ................. 32.0 ..............  19.8 ........... + 12.2
JAN ..................  40.2 ..............  23.1 ........... + 17.1
FEB .................    8.6 ..............  14.2 ........... -    5.6

TOTAL ............123.8 .............   83.5 ........... + 40.3

NOTE: These snowfall observations are taken from my site in Charleswood, and do not necessarily reflect amounts for other parts of the city, including the Winnipeg airport. The airport no longer takes official snowfall measurements (one of the few major airports in Canada that doesn't) , and thus, the above snowfall statistics are considered official snowfall observations for Winnipeg.  I take volunteer snowfall measurements for Environment Canada at my climate station officially listed as Charleswood 2.  Station in operation since Nov 2004.


  1. Looks like some snow on Monday.

    Rob, does that look like something potentially significant?

  2. Devastatingly, it looks like those erroneous -40°C readings in Brandon in December are still in the climate records. This is insane considering that these are at least 10 degrees colder than it really was.

    I noticed Brandon also still takes snow measurements. Rob, do you know where these measurements are taken and any notes on the accuracy of it? Thanks

  3. totally unrelated to the current thread but have a look at these clouds posted on APOTD

  4. Wow what a change in the forecast for next week. According to WN it looks like a lot of snow. EC also forecasting snow but nothing from Accuweather

  5. Re: Monday-Tuesday snow

    At this point, the GEM model is the most aggressive in bringing snow over Winnipeg and southern MB. All other guidance is keeping the bulk of the snow across SK and the Dakotas, mainly to the south and west of RRV. We'll keep an eye on it to see any trends but at this point, it looks like the GEM is overdoing things.

  6. CJOB sure is talking up this storm.

    1. Rob

      I'm assuming February was the 5th month in a row below normal. Is this accurate?

  7. Daryl.. Latest NAM American model has joined the GEM, and is now producing hefty amounts into Winnipeg and RRV with Monday's system.. 10-20 cm or more. Still early and I'd like to see more consistency and agreement from the models, but certainly something to keep an eye on.

  8. Anonymous.. I don't have the final mean temp for Feb, but looks like it will be around -14.5C or so at YWG airport, which would be a degree below the 1981-2010 Feb normal of -13.5C. So yes, 5th month in a row below normal (although none have been well below normal, greatest departure was October at 1.3C below normal)

  9. And now that latest 12Z GGEM has the storm completely missing us to the south and west.. while the NAM brings it in. GFS is a miss as is the Euro. As you can see.. lots of uncertainty on this one. I think there's good agreement that southern SK and ND will see a fair amount of snow with this system, but the northern extent of significant snowfall into southern MB, especially RRV, is still in question at this point.

  10. Nice day out west...

    Vauxhall, Alberta is currently at 15.3C

  11. Rob is that estimated -14.5°C mean for Feb from the A 'CS' station? I thought the AWOS was the official station for temperature. I say this because -14.5°C is a little off if we look at the AWOS station (I'm assuming Feb 1 mean was between -28 and -29 comparing with the A CS station, because of course the AWOS station is missing data for that day). I'm thinking -14.0°C is a closer estimate.

  12. Anonymous.. Yes, I'm using the AWOS site. Data for Feb 1st was missing, but I'm assuming a mean temperature of -28C. That would shave 1C off the mean temperature for the month, which was -13.5C without the 1st.

  13. The battle of the models continues with Monday's storm system... with the ECMWF now joining the party with a snowier solution for RRV. GGEM on the other hand continues to show a miss for the RRV, keeping snow mainly over SW MB. That's why the forecast for Mon/Tue for Winnipeg has switched to "sunny" from "periods of snow" which is too radical a change based on latest model trends. At this point, it looks increasingly likely that there will be significant snowfall Sunday afternoon through Monday into early Tuesday across SW MB, with snow spreading into the RRV as well. Bulk of heaviest snow is expected mainly south and west of Winnipeg, but we could be looking at 10 cm or so here in the city Sunday night into early Tuesday, with a potential for higher amounts if system tracks further north. I will have an updated blog post later today on this system.

  14. Note that winter storm watches have been posted for ND from Pembina to the Montana border for this system.

  15. And Winter storm Watches have been issued for Southern SK and parts of Alberta as well

  16. Snowfall projections from last night's model runs for Winnipeg for Monday's event..

    NAM ..... 17 cm
    ECMWF ... 10-15 cm
    GFS ..... TR
    GEM ..... 0 cm
    UKMET ... 0 cm

    NAEFS ensembles barely register anything, with 0.5 cm or so, but some outliers showing heavier amounts of 10-15 cm. Really shows the difficulty models are having resolving this system, and the resulting flip flopping from run to run.

  17. 12Z NAM staying the course with 10-20 cm indicated Monday across much of southern MB, including YWG and RRV, while GEM has bulk of snow remaining to our southwest. ECMWF is in between, bringing 5-10 cm over Winnipeg. GFS has about 2-5 cm for us. 12Z NAEFS ensembles showing more for Winnipeg now.. with a 25% chance of at least 7 cm. So there's a growing trend towards measurable snow in Winnipeg, except for the GEM.

    Key is how models are resolving evolution and strength of 700 mb low with this system. NAM tracks 7H feature furthest north, almost along intl border, while GEM takes upper low and asoctd heaviest snow into ND. Gut feeling is that NAM may be too aggressive with this upper low, and is taking heavy snow too far north and east into RRV. Overall, I'm thinking that Winnipeg will be on the edge of about 5-10 cm, with more to our south and west.. but still not a lot of confidence on this one until I see more consistency and agreement.

  18. Wow Calgary's forecast sure bonked out today; predicted high was 13 but only got to 0 so far. The joy of living close to the mountains....

  19. Looks like southeastern SK and southwestern MB will get the snow, plus northern and eastern north Dakota. Yet more moisture in the Assiniboine and Red River watersheds.

  20. Tonight's GEM starting to bring some snow into Winnipeg, with about 4-5 cm forecast Sunday night into Monday. Heavier amounts of 10-15 cm for southern RRV. NAM is giving Winnipeg about 15 cm early Monday into early Tuesday morning. So it looks like most models are trending to *some* snow in Winnipeg.. but opinions still vary on how much we'll get. Higher confidence of more significant amounts south and west of the city.

    I will have a new blog post on this system shortly.