Summerlike Saturday

Looks like a beautiful Saturday shaping up over Southern MB and the Red River valley with plenty of sunshine and a balmy southwest flow sending temperatures up to the 25C mark in many localities including Winnipeg. The sunny skies, low humidity and dry soil conditions along with a favourable southwest flow will make for ideal conditions for a warm day, with temperatures of 27C possible along the western Red River valley from Portage through Morden to Gretna and Emerson. Should be a beauty for enjoying the outdoors.. although area farmers are likely not enjoying this sunny dry weather. We sure could use some rain to start replenishing soil moisture levels which are getting pretty low in areas. After another sunny dry day Sunday, it appears that southern MB may see some rainfall on Monday as a disturbance passes through the area with showers and possible thunderstorms. Models are indicating a general rainfall of 5 to 15 mm over southern MB, with locally higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Not a drought buster.. but anything will help at this point!

Lack of rain creating grass fires around Winnipeg

The lack of rain over the past 3 weeks along with increasing temperatures, low humidity and abundant sunshine is creating very dry surface conditions over the Red River valley and southern MB, with an increasing occurrence of grass fires in recent days. Yesterday there were several fires around Winnipeg, especially along Hwy 75 just south of the city between St Adolphe and St Norbert which created large smoke plumes that drifted across the highway. After about 10 mm of rain and wet snow that fell in Winnipeg on April 1st, precipitation has been virtually non-existent since then, with only about 1 mm or so in the past 25 days. This has heightened the concern of another dry growing season developing in southern MB, coming off one of the driest summers on record last year. Last year, moist soil conditions at the beginning of the growing season tempered the effects of a dry growing season and minimized the impact on crops. If similar dryness occurs this year however, the effects on agriculture will be much more serious since soil moisture levels are starting off so dry this year compared to 2006.

And it appears that the dry conditions will continue for the next several days at least. There's a chance of some showers overnight into Friday morning, but amounts are not expected to be significant (far from the "relief" that the local paper was suggesting) After that, it looks warm and dry through the weekend before the next chance of rain early next week. There are some signs in the long range models of a possible change to more unsettled conditions developing over southern MB for the beginning of May (which makes sense given that the kids soccer season is starting!) , but at this point, relief from the dry weather is still a ways away.

Scattered thunderstorms developing over Southern MB..

An almost summerlike evening out there this evening, with temperatures still in the upper teens as of 9 pm. Latest radar even shows some scattered thunderstorms developing this evening over southern MB, with one cell near Morden and another east of Steinbach (saw lightning flashes to my southeast) . Tops are around 25000 feet, and cells are moving to the northnortheast at 50 km/h. Could see our first thunderstorm of the season tonight here in Winnipeg!

A little rain tonight.. more rain on weekend..

It's been nice and dry over the past 2-3 weeks over Southern MB, with only 1 mm of rain since April 1st in Winnipeg along with plenty of sunshine. The dry weather along with strengthening April sunshine and low humidity has allowed the ground to dry out quickly.. with even some grass fires reported around Winnipeg in recent days. So some rainfall would probably be welcome by this point to start replenishing soil moisture levels, especially in light of last year's record dry summer. We could see some rainfall overnight tonight into Friday morning as a band of showers from North Dakota moves northward.. but rainfall amounts will be minor, perhaps 1 or 2 mm. The showers will move off Friday morning making way for another sunny mild day Friday with temperatures near the 20 degree mark. Saturday will also be dry and mild, but we could see some more significant rainfall Saturday night into Sunday as an area of showers and thunderstorms from the Dakotas moves into the Red River valley with local rainfall amounts of 15-25 mm possible.

Beautiful day

A beauty day out there.. nothing but sunshine and balmy southerly breezes sending temperatures into the mid to upper teens today. Currently 11c as of 11 am here in Winnipeg, and we should climb to around 18C this afternoon.. the warmest day of 2007 so far and the mildest we've been here since last October 7 when we hit 24C. By the way, the record high for Winnipeg today is 24C set just last year during our 2nd warmest April on record.