I'm not finding the time to update this blog as frequently as I have in the past, so I'm just going to suspend the blog for awhile until I can find more free time to devote to it. I may post some entries from time to time, but they won't be on a regular basis. I thank everyone for their loyal following and participation, and I hope to return to more frequent updates in the fall. Until then, you can follow some excellent weather blogs at A Weather Moment or Winnipeg Weather for current local weather information and updates.
As you say, hope you still find the time to update now and then, particularly during noteworthy local weather events (the weather generally seems to have been fairly benign for the good past while). I know I'm one of many who has had the chance to get so much knowledge from this blog.ReplyDelete
Anonymous.. Appreciate your comments. You're right.. the weather has been rather dull around here for awhile which doesn't help with blog material. That, and a lack of time with other personal commitments has really cut into the blog posts. Hopefully I can find some more free time after summer..Delete
By the way, I see my weather station is not reporting wind speeds since yesterday. Looks like a frayed cable again. So no wind info from my site until I can get the cable repaired..ReplyDelete
Well before you close up shop, lets keep on eye on that Colorado Low that will be tracking up towards southern Minnesota this weekend. Split flow this year has been killing us so far. Often times a track such as that would allow at least light precipitation into S Manitoba, but with NW flow in the northern branch of the jetstream and confluence with southern stream.. enough upper convergence to generate surface high pressure and sharp cut-off to precipitation. Right now GFS shows dramatic gradient in precipitation right along the international border (lol). However, any shift northwards will bring precip into the southern RRV and maybe even Winnipeg. Cold air wrapping into the system will cause a change over to snow on the NW fringe of the precipitation shield. Possible accumulation depending on time of day and precipitation intensity.ReplyDelete
Rob I hope its ok to still ask the odd weather related question. I appreciate your expertise when it comes to weather topics. But about what Anon said about split flows, why is it that we seem to experience them a lot? It has been bad lately but it seems like a consistent pattern I've noticed. Often we're on the dry/cold side of it.ReplyDelete
I'm not sure I would agree that we're locked into a certain pattern of missing these big systems.. Sometimes they track more to our west, sometimes further east.. and sometimes, they track just right to hit us. The system earlier this month (May 6-7) brought most of the rain over western MB and southern SK while Winnipeg was warm and humid. This past weekend, the storm system tracked to our southeast, and gave North Dakota 25-75 mm of rain while clipping SE MB. The next big system is expected this weekend (bad timing).. and currently it looks like RRV won't dodge this one with a soaking rain Saturday night through Sunday (perhaps 25 mm+) Given enough systems, we usually will get hit with one of them. If the systems are less frequent, then there may be a perception that they frequently miss us when in fact, it's just lower odds of getting one..Delete
Great answer Rob thank youReplyDelete
Extensive -1 to -2 C temps over SW Manitoba and western RRV as ridge line built in. Looks like NNE/N flow off the the south basin of L Winnipeg salvaged the eastern RRV, and likely most of Winnipeg (except for the western most sections) from reaching 0 C. Hopefully the last such occurrence this spring.
Persistent Rex block pattern over western N America and split flow causing continued difficulty for models. In particular, the northern extent of systems moving up from the four corner area on the southern branch of the jetstream. In past events, high pressure over the northern Prairies (associated with the northern branch) feeds down very dry air and cuts off precipitation trying to move up from the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Precipitation totals have been considerably higher for areas near the border in SW and SE Manitoba for May and June.
Tomorrow will feature the complex interaction of waves from the two different streams.. a northern wave will push a surface trough east across the Manitoba and Saskatchewan border, while the southern wave will track up from the Dakotas and will tap an intensifying LLJ. There will be two chances for precipitation - an area of elevated convection in the morning through midday with clearing in the afternoon, and surface based convection along the trough moving in from western Manitoba.
In terms of the elevated convection, models like NAM show a continuous area of QPF ahead of both waves. However based on past events.. I suspect there may be more of a split in the precipitation pattern. One favored region will be just off to our SE as southern low starts closing off and LLJ intensifies, and another will be over the Interlake in association with forcing from the northern disturbance. Finally, the surface trough associated with the northern wave will give the potential for convection depending on amount of clearing and destabilization after the southern wave and complex passes by. This should be diurnally driven and may be weakening by the time it reaches Winnipeg around 9-10 PM local time.
NW upper flow from northern branch of the jetstream looks to become dominant in the extended range, with the active southern stream weakening and being suppressed over the Central Plains and Ohio Valley. As a result, deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be cut-off for a considerable period, which is quite anomalous for this time of year (June being the wettest month in our region).
Rob's Obs has been my go to weather station for years.ReplyDelete
Yours seems to be the closest to Oak Park Hi that I can find, and as such is my most valid info.
I appreciate your dedication and would hate to see you give it up