While the Maritimes digs out from its third major blizzard in a week (55+38+46 = 139 cm of snow in Moncton within the past 7 days!), residents of Winnipeg and southern Manitoba are beginning to forget what a snowstorm even looks like. It's been over a month since Winnipeg's last major snowfall (12 cm Jan 2-3rd) and since then, snow has been meagre with a few minor snowfalls of 2 cm or less totalling 5 cm since then. In fact, there have been only 2 storm systems this winter in Winnipeg that have produced more than 5 cm of snow.. a 9 cm snowfall on Nov 28-29th, and the 12 cm snowfall Jan 2-3rd. Other than that.. minor snowfalls now and then have brought our winter seasonal snowfall up to 46 cm as of the end of January.. some 26 cm below the average of 72 cm by Jan 31st (average seasonal snowfall in Winnipeg to May is 114 cm) Last year we had accumulated 104 cm by the end of January with a total snowfall of 153 cm by the end of April. While the lack of snow has been great for travel and spring flooding concerns, it's turning into a major disappointment for storm lovers and outdoor enthusiasts such as snowmobiles and skiers who would like to see a deeper snowpack (current snowdepth is 12 cm vs 40 cm last year at this time).
So is there any snow in the forecast? Well, it appears that we may be seeing some new snowfall by the end of the week into the weekend as a couple of clipper systems track across the southern Prairies into the northern US plains. On Friday, an area of snow is expected to spread across southern MB as a system tracks across Montana into the Dakotas, with perhaps 2-5 cm for Winnipeg, and 5 cm or so over SW Manitoba. Another clipper will track across southern MB on Saturday with another 5 cm of snow or so possible. While these aren't major storm systems, they will likely result in poor travelling conditions once again after a month of almost snowfree conditions.
UPDATE: (Friday's first clipper system appears that it will just brush Winnipeg with a dusting to 2 cm, with up to 5 cm possible over SW Manitoba. Model guidance is now trending higher with snowfall amounts later Friday into Saturday with the next clipper system, now showing perhaps 10 cm or more possible for Winnipeg. Stay tuned on this developing situation.
Looks like models are trending a little further SW with Friday's clipper, with a dusting to 2 cm for Winnipeg and 2-5 cm over SW MB. Models are also trending up with Saturday's system, now showing 5-10 cm for Winnipeg. We'll see if these trends continue, but at the moment, Saturday looking like the snowier day.
ReplyDeletehi,
ReplyDeleteI see WN is now calling for 5 - 10 cm Fri and 10 cm on Sat.
Have the models changed?
Latest guidance is showing more snow with Saturday system, with 10 cm possible for Winnipeg mainly Friday evening into Saturday afternoon. Today's Euro shows even more for Saturday.. with 15-20 cm possible for Winnipeg. We'll have to see how later runs handle this, but for now, models continue to trend upwards with Saturday clipper. Given the setup, I think 20 cm is on the high side, but 10 cm certainly looking more and more likely at this point. Stay tuned.
DeleteAccording to the latest GFS, it is showing the snow coming in 2 waves for the weekend. What are your thoughts on that solution Rob??
DeleteThere seems to be hints of one wave coming in Friday evening with a bit of a break by midnight before the main wave starts Saturday morning. Euro seems to support this as well.
DeleteBy the way, another snowstorm on the way for Moncton and New Brunswick tonight into Thursday. Another 15-25 cm on top of the 140 cm over the past week. Incredible.
ReplyDeleteRob, thanks for the blog update. Not because I'm a snowmobiler and love winter but because I appreciate your insight and analysis of the forecasting models. Its one thing to simply repeat what a weather model may be showing but it’s another thing to have actual real world experiences to add and supplement a forecast like you do. Kudos.
ReplyDeleteAppreciate the comments. I try to give as much insight as I can when possible on the weather situation, but I don't always have as much time as I'd like to do it on a consistent basis. But anything I can share, I'll try.
DeleteAs for the next couple of days, looks like we'll be getting a dusting to 2 cm overnight into early Friday with the first clipper. Then a couple of waves of snow with the next clipper Friday evening into Saturday with about 2-5 cm Friday evening, then another 10 cm possible Saturday. Bulk of snow Friday night into Saturday expected mainly from Dauphin through Gimli into Whiteshell where 15-20 cm is possible.
Here is what the snow looks like in Old Brunswick... http://www.thrillon.com/tag/canadian-trains-don-t-fear-the-snow-epic-catch
ReplyDeleteThat was awesome!
DeleteHad 3 cm of very light fluffy snow overnight into this morning.. with reports of 5 cm over northern and eastern suburbs of the city. Now we wait until the next wave of snow moves in later today into this evening with another 3-5 cm likely through midnight before tapering off temporarily overnight. Then a last wave coming in Saturday morning with 5 cm possible in Winnipeg by afternoon and heavier amounts of 10-15 cm further north and east, from Dauphin through the southern Interlake to Whiteshell-Kenora. Models even hint that snow may mix with ice pellets along the southern edge of the heavier snow Saturday.. including Winnipeg. Overall, looks like Winnipeg will end up with another 7-10 cm of snow over the next 24-36 hrs on top of what has fallen this morning. Keep in mind that there will be a sharp gradient to the snowfall on the southern edge, along with a risk of ice pellets, so snowfall amounts over Winnipeg/RRV less certain. Higher confidence for greater snowfall amounts north of the city.
ReplyDeleteOnly 1.4 cm of new snow here in Charleswood, mixed with ice pellets and some light freezing rain early this morning. 2.2 mm water equivalent so snow was much denser than yesterday's fluff. Snow was a little heavier through the Interlake into the Whiteshell with 10 cm in Arborg, and 7 cm in Pinawa. Overall, a bit of a dud event..
DeleteWell, it's starting to look like February will finish much colder than December and January. Go figure.
ReplyDeleteGood chance of snow Tuesday or another miss?
ReplyDeleteLooks like a good chance.. Track of heaviest snow will be further south than last system, and all guidance has been pretty consistent on bringing a swath of 5-10 cm across Winnipeg/RRV Tuesday. Expecting to start in Winnipeg between 3-6 am, and tapering off by early evening. Probably 1-2 cm by the morning rush, but the afternoon rush will likely be more impacted by the all day snowfall.
DeleteOnly a couple cm so far in Winnipeg, but a heavier snowband has been persistent just SW of the city through the Brunkild, Sanford, Elm Creek, Starbuck areas. We'll have to see if this band makes it to Winnipeg, although radar trends seems to suggest the band is weakening as it heads toward the city..
DeleteHeavier snowband edging into south end of city now according to radar.. should see snow rates increasing shortly, over the south anyways..
Deletehi rob, I love keeping up with Winnipeg winters. thanks for this website. I just got home and saw on the Canadian radar that northwest ontrario is getting a lot right now. did this system move thru Winnipeg today and if so how much did yall get. I was in Winnipeg this time last year and there was a deep snow cover. I understand its much less this year. ~magnolia~
ReplyDeleteHi magnolia.. It's been awhile! Welcome back!
DeleteYes, that system moved through Winnipeg today and we got about 6 cm in total today (at least at my place). Snow has been scarce this year in Winnipeg.. we've only had 3 snowfalls of 5 cm or more (including today's) The biggest was 12 cm on Jan 2-3rd. We've only had about 50 cm of snow the entire winter so far, compared to well over 100 cm last year.. so yes, a much quieter winter. But that's OK.. last year was too severe (especially the cold). For snowfall, all the action this winter has been in New England and the Canadian Maritimes which have been clobbered with 3 or 4 big storms over the past 2-3 weeks. Some places have had almost 200 cm of snow over that time! Crazy!
What were the actual's for December and January? It looks like February will be the coldest month this winter. I'm assuming that doesn't happen as often as the other 2 months
ReplyDeleteDecember averaged -9.5C, and January was -13.7C.. both about 3C above normal. February will indeed be the coldest month this winter, but since 1872, that's happened at least 25 times in Winnipeg where Feb was the coldest month of the winter. January on average is our coldest month (1981-2010 average of -16.4C, compared to -13.2 for Dec and Feb)
DeleteAt least the longer days with the stronger February sun, make the cold snaps a little tiny bit more bearable.....that is when there is no strong wind to contend with.
DeleteUpdated blog posts will return next week..
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteI know there has not been much snow but do you know when the daily data site will be updated?
Thanks
Greetings folks. I'm back from an extended holiday visiting family in Australia.. 2 weeks of glorious summer weather and wonderful sights (mainly Melbourne and Sydney) Glad I missed out on the wretched cold of the past 2-3 weeks, to come back to spring like weather here! Will get back to more regular updates in the days and weeks ahead (including my Charleswood daily data site).
ReplyDeleteWelcome back Rob. Looks like some of the upcoming days will be approaching record highs :)
DeleteDouble digit highs today at my station (+10C).. beautiful!
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