Monday, January 12, 2015
A break in the deep freeze this week..
Temperatures will be on the rise this week over southern Manitoba as the upper weather pattern allows a milder Pacific airmass to spread eastward across the Prairies. As a result, the minus 20s and minus 30s of the past two weeks will give way to more moderate temperatures, likely reaching -5C or higher by Thursday. In the meantime, we have another cold night ahead with temperatures remaining steady near -23C tonight with southerly winds of 30 km/h giving windchills in the mid -30s into early Tuesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday will finally be edging upward with temperatures near minus 12C by evening, although the day will see brisk southerly winds of 30 km/h or more through midday before easing by evening. Wednesday will see a clipper system tracking through central Manitoba bringing a band of snow mainly through the Interlake regions, although Winnipeg will likely see a band of snow through midday of perhaps 1-2 cm. Note that the snow will be accompanied by gusty south winds to 50 or 60 km/h, so reduced visibilities in snow and blowing snow will be an issue in the RRV as the band of snow moves through. Behind the snow, winds will shift into the west as the clipper tracks east, allowing milder temperatures over southern Saskatchewan to spread into southern Manitoba by afternoon and evening. Look for temperatures to rise to -3C or so in Winnipeg Wednesday night as southerly winds shift into the west. After a mild start, Thursday will see slightly cooler conditions move in (but still above normal) as we get "backdoored" by a cool front thanks to NE outflow winds from a colder high pressure area over northern Manitoba. This will be followed by another surge of milder air over the weekend, possibly preceded by another band of snow Friday. All in all, a change to milder weather on the way this week, but a bit of a roller coaster ride as periodic clipper systems move across the Prairies.
Posted by rob at 10:08 PM
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That dreaded southerly valley wind giving some nasty windchills this morning in Winnipeg. -23C temps with 40-50 kmh winds giving windchills close to -40 early this morning. Don't let that high of -14C fool you today.. still awfully cold this morning before we see those milder temps later today.ReplyDelete
Good little burst of snow on the way for Winnipeg over the enxt hour or so as heavier band west of city moves through. Could pick up a quick 1-2 cm with visibilities dropping to 1 km or less along with blowing and drifting snow.ReplyDelete
Once those winds shift into the west tonight, our temperatures will rise to -3 or -2C by midnight as we tap some milder air over southern Saskatchewan where it's currently near 0C, before temps fall overnight into Thursday. So our mildest temps will be tonight when everyone's asleep. Thursday will see temperatures falling to -12C in the morning then holding steady near -12 to -15C during the day, so a bit of a roller coaster ride with temperatures over the next 24 hrs.
Still stuck at -9C here with those southerly winds in the valley, while temps have climbed to the 0C mark over SW MB near the SK border as winds have shifted into the west. In the winter, it's all about getting that westerly wind to warm up! (with mild Pacific flows)ReplyDelete
Temperatures of 0 to +1C have spread into the western RRV as winds shift into the west. Look for Winnipeg's temperature to climb towards the freezing mark over the next few hours as those westerly winds push into Winnipeg.ReplyDelete
how much snow do you feel we will see with tonights snowfall?
Sorry Anon.. didn't see your post until after the event. Only got a dusting or so..Delete
An exceptionally mild night on tap as temperatures likely stay at or just above freezing tonight, which is very rare for January in Winnipeg. Since 1872, there has been only one day with a low temperature that stayed above freezing in January.. and that was Jan 12 1928 with a low of +1.1C (and a high of +2.8C) The 5 top warmest January lows are as follows:ReplyDelete
1. + 1.1C Jan 12 1928
2. 0.0C Jan 14 1894
3. - 0.2C Jan 23 2010
4. - 0.3C Jan 9 2002
5. - 0.6C Jan 11 1928
It's currently +0.9C at the airport as of 6 pm with cloudy skies and a SW breeze. Winds are forecast to veer slightly tonight into the west, which is favourable to keep temperatures up in Winnipeg. In fact, our temperatures could continue to go up this evening to +2C or so as winds veer into the west. If skies remain generally cloudy tonight and that W-SW wind stays up, we could be looking at a record mild night. The record low minimum for Jan 23 is -0.2C in 2010, and we'd have to stay above that mark all day tomorrow until midnight tomorrow night. But certainly the potential is there. Note that "average" lows for this time of year are around -23C, so we are in extremely rare territory to see temperatures some 20-25C above normal. Lows of 0.0C are "normal" for the end of April in Winnipeg.
Temperature popped to +3.7C at YWG airport this evening as our winds veered into the WSW. Even had a brief light rainshower this evening. Springlike evening in late January! Very mild today and Friday but we won't be setting any record daytime highs.. Record high for today (Jan 22) is +6.7C set in 1942, which was followed the next day by Winnipeg's warmest January temperature on record of +7.8C on Jan 23 1942.Delete
Temperatures stayed at +2C much of the night at Winnipeg airport, but briefly dropped to a low of -0.6C just before sunrise so we didn't set any record minimum temps today. But Portage had a low of +3.5C which must be a January record, or close to one... provided they don't cool down before midnight. Had some sun here late this morning.. felt wonderful with light winds and temps of +3C (up to +5C in my backyard!)Delete
Weather highlights today..ReplyDelete
- Record warmth in southern Alberta.. +17.2C in Calgary was a record high for today.
- Massive blizzard expected for Monday night through Tuesday for New England including NYC and Boston. 30-60 cm of snow likely with up to 80 cm in some areas. Major travel disruptions late Monday through Tuesday for that area, with domino effect on airline disruptions.
- looks like a change to colder weather for us by late Wed-Thursday this week. Back to -20s, possible -30s by the weekend. It's been a good run though. 2 weeks of above normal temps.
Any reports as to how much snow fell in the Fisher Branch areas and east?ReplyDelete
(Am hoping to do some cross country skiing this weekend, and the only place that looks like it will have fresh and adequate snow would be Hecla Island... looks like Grand Beach may have just missed out based on the radar today)
Looks like about 10 cm based on the Fisher Branch automated station.Delete
Help Rob !!! It's snowing right now and EC says "flurries" for today with no mention of accumulation. Without your commentary it's like being in the dark.ReplyDelete
Yes, looks like forecast of snow was underdone for Winnipeg. Main swath of snow passing through Interlake into the Whiteshell, but Winnipeg getting clipped on southern edge of system. We could see 1-2 cm before it tapers off early this afternoon.ReplyDelete
Apologies for not updating this blog as frequently as I used to. Busy with other things, lack of motivation, growing use of Twitter, etc.. I'm just not keeping up with it as much as I'd like. May have to look at dropping it, or using other methods to update it..
Hope Not...you have become the "Weather Guru" to many Manitobans!Delete
Without your Blog we would be lost :)
For anyone on Twitter, you can follow me at @robsobs More and more, I use Twitter for quick updates on the weather. For more major events, I still like the blog format.. but we haven't had many major events here in awhile..Delete
Although I do follow you on twitter I really enjoy this blog. Please keep it going.
Does next weekend look like snow? WN is calling for it.
Yes Rob, please keep the blog going! I personally hate Twitter and will not get an account. This is a much better forum.ReplyDelete
Weather network is calling for lots of snow Fridays Saturday. Is this going to happen?
WN is calling for 5-10 cm Fri, 10 cm Sat & 5 cm Sun
This would be awesome!!!!!!!
No, not a Colorado low.. but a couple of Montana clippers possible. One on Friday bringing potential of 5-10 cm across southern MB, then perhaps an additional 5-10 cm with another clipper Sat-Sun (although more uncertainty with that one.. some models have it missing us completely). Still early, and these amounts/timing will likely change as models try to get a handle on progressive pattern. We're due for a decent snowfall though.. last significant one in Winnipeg was Jan 2-3rd with 12 cm. Since then, nothing over 2 cm. Great for travel.. boring as heck if you're into snowstorms.Delete
If you're into snowstorms, then Boston is the place to be. They're getting their second major snowstorm in a week today.Delete
Lucky them :)ReplyDelete
At the opposite end of the spectrum is Fargo ND. They've had a measly 19 cm of snow so far this winter, with no single snowfall greater than 2.5 cm. Ground is completely bare from Grand Forks south. Good news for flooding potential if snow drought continues..Delete
Could you imagine if that would happen here!!!ReplyDelete
Another blizzard warning for New Brunswick.. that's the third major storm within a week. Moncton had 55 cm Jan 27-28th, followed by 39 cm on Jan 31st-Feb 1st, now they're expecting another 30-40 cm tonight. They could be a looking at 130 cm within a week.. which is more than an entire winter's snow here. Different climate for sure.. but sure puts snowfall in perspective..ReplyDelete
Moncton 14 cm so far this evening with snow getting heavier. 6 cm of snow past hour alone in Charlottetown, 15 cm past 5 hours. Now THAT"S a snowstorm!Delete
There is always hope!!ReplyDelete
Staggering snowfall amounts from Maritimes blizzard: Charlottetown: 64 cm within 15 hrs (including 59 cm within 12 hrs!), Moncton 46 cm in 15 hrs. Moncton: 139 cm past week. Incredible.ReplyDelete
As for us, 5 cm possible Friday with another 5 cm on the weekend. Woo hoo!
That's it 10 cm?ReplyDelete