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| GDPS model showing -35C cold core at 850 mb over southern MB Sunday |
Thursday, January 02, 2014
Clipper system to bring in snow and milder temperatures Friday.. but turning frigid again for weekend. Brutal windchills Sunday into Tuesday..
The brutal cold snap which has been locked over southern Manitoba since last weekend will ease for one day Friday as an Alberta clipper system tracks into North Dakota. This system will spread some snow across southern Manitoba tonight with 2 to 5 cm possible by Friday morning, especially north of Winnipeg. On Friday snow will intensify with 5 to 10 cm possible across a wide swath of southern MB including Winnipeg. Some areas such as around the Riding Mountains and Whiteshell may even see 15 cm by the time the snow tapers off Friday evening. In addition the system will be bringing in gusty south winds overnight and into Friday morning that will give blowing and drifting snow, with poor visibilities in open areas. Highway conditions will not be ideal Friday morning so be prepared to take some extra time to get your destination if travelling. The good news is that temperatures will finally moderate to above average values Friday afternoon with highs near -10C in Winnipeg and -5C along the US border. Unfortunately, the respite will be short lived as winds shift into the north behind the clipper system Friday evening and bring a return of Arctic air across southern MB for the weekend into next week. Gusty north winds Friday night and falling tempertaures will result in blowing snow and poor visibilities across the Red River valley, especially towards the US border.
Frigid air will return for the weekend, and in fact, conditions look even worse than the past week as northwest winds will be increasing out of the northwest to 30 km/h with gusts to 50 by Sunday and Monday.. combining with -30C temperatures to produce wind chills in the minus 45 to minus 50 range. As a result, this next Arctic outbreak will feel even colder than the past week when winds have been relatively light.. so be prepared for brutal wind chills this weekend into early next week. Frigid conditions will continue much of next week, although long range models are finally hinting at the Arctic pattern breaking down later in the week into next weekend with milder conditions moving in across the Prairies. Let's hope they're right!
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Some schools in Minnesota are already cancelling classes for Monday because of the cold weather expected (-40 to -50F wind chills, and high temps of -15 to -20F).
ReplyDeleteAlso, blizzard watch issued for much of North Dakota for Friday night into Saturday due to those NW winds and falling temps behind this clipper system.
It's a bad one on the roads this late night, with winds gusting to 60km/h and snow falling!!
ReplyDeleteEven inside the city right now the visibility is extremely poor. Wind is just howling!
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteDo you think we will get more than 10 cm of snow today?
Thanks
I get a feeling Environment Canada will be needing to issue a blizzard warning for the Portage area, cause with 70km/h wind gusts expected, we all know how bad that #1 HWY between Winnipeg and Portage can get!
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteany idea on how much has fallen?
Anonymous.. Haven't been able to take a measurement since 7 am.. but looks like a good 5 cm out there so far. I'm sure we'll double that by evening.. total of 10-15 cm by the time it ends.
ReplyDeleteI cannot wait for that nice warm up and the end of next week. That will be a very nice treat, and this time it's looks like it will last more than one day!
ReplyDeleteYa...but probably more snow when it warms up.....scrap the snow give me cold!!
ReplyDeleteYah, I see WN says 10 cm next Thursday. Everytime it warms up we get dumped on.Then right back to the bitter cold.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/fallen-hydro-poles-leave-st-james-residents-without-power-1.2484309
ReplyDelete"..temperatures dipping down to -40 C to -45 C over the weekend."
Once again a journalist mistakes wind chill for temperature. You'd think by now they would understand!
Another one of those nights when the airport gets much colder than the rest of the city. At 10 PM -32 at the airport and -26 at my place in south St Vital. That 6 degree difference is "cold comfort" at these values.
ReplyDeleteDangerous conditions out there this morning with a temperature of -36C and a windchill of -51. That warm at the end of the week is looking even more glorious now.
ReplyDeleteI've been outside in windchill warning weather when the air is very cold but the winds are no more than 15km/h, that is tolerable somewhat. Just coming from outside, the winds are starting to gust and the wind is very noticeable, which make is almost unbearable right now!
ReplyDeleteLooks like I left Winnipeg just in time. You are having one heck of a winter there this year. Meanwhile, here on the shores of Georgian Bay, we are getting streamers - again. Tonnes and tonnes of snow.
ReplyDeleteWinds are really starting to pick up now, especially in SW Manitoba. That wind just "cuts" through your jacket. Bone chilling cold!!
ReplyDeleteJust goes to show you that you need an appreciable wind to really give a wind chill factor. Quoting wind chills when winds are light (below 15 kmh) gives misleading values that overstate how cold it feels.
ReplyDeleteRob, does this long and awaited warmup later this week look like something prolonged or is it just for a couple days then back to cold again?
ReplyDeleteRob, did we get warmer than -30C today?? It looks like it did not, unless we did in between hourly observations. I don't think we will be warming above -30C before midnight like last time, cause the temperature are already fallen down to -32 at 5:00
ReplyDeleteAirport high to 6 pm was -30.2C after a low of -38.0C which makes today even colder than Dec 31st. We'll see if we can nudge above -30C by midnight, but doesn't look like we will..
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said... Rob, does this long awaited warmup later this week look like something prolonged or is it just for a couple days then back to cold again?
ReplyDeleteLooks like it will last through the weekend into early next week with above normal temperatures in the minus single digits..possibly reaching the freezing mark. Guidance does show colder weather returning by Tues/Wed of next week, but at least we'll have a nice 4 or 5 day break.. much better than 4 or 5 hours!
Rob,
ReplyDeleteDo you happen to have a total accumulation available from Friday's storm?
Also, what is our total snowfall accumulation up to for this winter?
Thanks!
>> Anonymous said... Rob, Do you happen to have a total accumulation available from Friday's storm? Also, what is our total snowfall accumulation up to for this winter?
ReplyDeleteAs you may or may not know, we no longer get official snowfall data from the Winnipeg airport site. They stopped taking snowfall data around 2007 or so after 135 years of continuous data. So we have to rely now on volunteer snowfall observations, which I happen to take from my place in Charleswood. I measured 11 cm from Friday's storm, but that varied considerbaly between 7 and 15 cm due to drifting. Similar reports across the city.
For the season, I'm up to 77 cm of snow after Friday's storm. Normally, we should see about 55 cm by this point, so we're running about 40% above normal so far. Normal winter snowfall is 117 cm (1981-2010 average)
110-120 cm for an entire winter
I'm so looking forward to this nice warm up to above normal temperatures.
ReplyDeleteI also see on the models that there could be increased snow chances as the warm air arrives. I'll take some more snow any day of the week, over this brutal cold!
How much of the 77cm is still on the ground? Did we even get any melt since the first snowfall?
ReplyDeleteI've got about 35 cm on the ground right now (but deeper drifts). Even without melting, snowfall will compact and compress over time, as well as lose some to sublimation or evaporation.
ReplyDelete