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The forecast is looking up for Winnipeg and
southern Manitoba. Relief from Arctic weather
is finally on the way later this week |
It's been a frigid weekend over southern Manitoba as a bitterly cold Arctic airmass (aka "polar vortex") moved across the southern Prairies accompanied by brisk northwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h. The result was severe windchills in the minus 40 to minus 50 range, with Winnipeg recording a -51 wind chill reading at 8 am Sunday morning (-37C with a 20 km/h wind) The high Sunday was only
-30.2C,
the first sub -30C high in Winnipeg in 10 years (high of -30.8C on Jan 30 2004) The good news is that the brutal conditions are finally easing tonight as winds drop off and temperatures moderate. Although it will remain cold for a couple more days, conditions will be less severe than the past few days. More significant relief from the cold is expected Thursday into the weekend as temperatures finally climb to above normal values for at least 5 days.. a much welcome respite from what has been an exceptionally cold 4 weeks. Since Dec 5th, Winnipeg has seen only 3 days above normal.. with an average temperature some 7.5C below normal over the past month. The relentless cold is causing numerous problems in Winnipeg with frequent water main breaks, terrible road conditions due to icy rutted roads, and many disabled vehicles. Crane Towing reported that today (Jan 5th) was their busiest day in 40 years of business based on call volumes for stranded motorists, and MPI (Manitoba's auto insurance provider) stated that the
16,700 accident claims in December was the worst month for accidents in at least 15 years. Yes, it's been a long, cold winter.. and it's only early January! The upcoming warmup will be a welcome and much needed break for winter weary Winnipeggers.
Is this warm up just a small break or will it stay at seasonal norms for a bit?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. Overall it looks like near to above seasonal norms into the middle of next week.. save for a quick shot of below normal temps Sunday as a strong clipper tracks across southern MB (progs indicating 970s mb clipper which is fairly intense followed by strong NW winds on backside Sunday)
ReplyDeleteIs that clipper going to give us a lot of snow on Sunday?
ReplyDeleteIqaluit has a major blizzard now with winds gusting to 130km/h.
ReplyDeleteSunday's high of -30.2C is a record low maximum for the day.
ReplyDeleteIqaluit's getting a pretty damn good blizzard right now, with 110/G140 km/h winds.
ReplyDeleteThat Iqaluit storm is one of the most intense storms I've ever seen in my 30 years following meteorology. To give you an idea how intense this storm is.. a meteorological "bomb" is defined as a storm which exhibits explosive deepening at the rate of 24 mb within 24 hours. The pressure at Iqaluit has dropped 36 mb within the past 12 hours.. so it's intensifying at 3 times the rate of a bomb. I've never seen a storm do that to that degree. Absolutely jaw dropping stuff. I suspect this may be the worst storm on record for Iqaluit with lots of damage.
ReplyDeleteDaryl.. At this point, models aren't showing a lot of snow with Sunday's clipper.. maybe 2-5 cm. May even mix with ice pellets or freezing rain as we get into some milder air ahead of it.
ReplyDeleteWow. That is quite the storm at Iqaluit! My wife and I lived there one summer. The locals say they actually prefer winter (cleaner, less dust from the gravel roads) but this is something else!
ReplyDeleteFurther to my comments on the storm in Iqaluit... The bomb definition is based on the storms central pressure, not at a point ahead of the storm. With this storm, the central pressure went from 976 mb last evening to 941 mb this evening for a drop of 35 mb in 24 hrs... still considered a bomb, but not at 3X the rate as I stated earlier. Just wanted to clarify that.
ReplyDeleteWith the light winds and full solar, this late morning, is feeling pretty good compared the last while. This weekend looks really nice. We have SO earned it :)
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteAs you know, many of the temperature records are from the 1870's and 80's from (I believe) the St Johns College site (wherever that was).
How accurate do you personally think those numbers are - how were the readings taken? What was the accuracy of the instruments used? Have you ever heard anything about these things?
JoeL..
ReplyDeleteSt John's College (no longer there, but was located on Main St between Church and Anderson where MPI office is currently) took daily weather observations of temperature and precipitation from 1872 to 1938 for Winnipeg, after which time Winnipeg airport took over weather reporting duties. Official weather observations started at Winnipeg airport in 1938 and have continued since.
Back in the late 1800s, the Meteorological Service of Canada set up several weather monitoring stations across the country to take weather observations. For Winnipeg, it was St John's College. I don't have any information about the station and its instruments, but I'm sure they had the standard recording equipment back then, mainly for recording temperature and precipitation amounts. Overall, there wasn't a single day missed in all the 66 years St John's College took readings, and the data looks quite reliable and accurate for that time period. I have no problem accepting weather data from St John's college as official data.
Windchill warning issued for Winnipeg for this evening.. temperatures not climbing as quickly as expected so those increasing south winds of 30 to 40 km/h giving wind chills near minus 40 this evening before moderating by midnight or overnight as temperatures slowly climb. Those gusty south winds will also give some drifting and blowing snow, especially across east-west highways.
ReplyDeleteJust a reminder.. the wind direction sensor on my weather station is not working properly.. stuck at a NW position. I won't be able to get at it to fix it until spring. Wind speed is fine.
ReplyDeleteOK, Rob, so it wasn't the instruments, then it must have been the temperatures. Any thoughts on why so many of the extreme temperatures are from that period? Climate change did not start for many many years after that, so you can't lay it on that.
ReplyDeleteUrban heat island effect doesn't really matter much at the airport. Any thoughts?
JoeL..
ReplyDeleteThe late 1800s were a notably cold period in North America, with many record cold temperatures set in the 1880s. The period 1883-1886 was particularly cold in Winnipeg, with 35 out of 36 months below normal. One theory is that the drastic cooling was due to the major volcanic eruption of Krakatoa in Indonesia in August 1883 that cooled the globe for a prolonged period. The 1930s also saw some notably extreme weather, with severe drought, cold and heat that decade.
rob do you think the river trails will open this year? if they aren't ready after the coldest December in 100 years I don't understand how they aren't open. i'm coming to town jan. 24, any chance the will be open?
ReplyDeleteNew England experienced The Year With No Summer in 1816. Very late frosts and an agricultural disaster produced widespread famine. Low solar output and a volcano were the main culprits.
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
A few months ago I watched a series on the dust bowl on PBS, the other extreme.
Obviously these singular extremes are usually caused by a combination of factors. Long term changes are another matter.
Magnolia.. I understand the river trails opened today.
ReplyDeleteRob What do you think of the HBC archival weather records going back 200 years before St Johns. I understand that those are now available
ReplyDeleteI'm loving this warm up. Temperatures in the minus single digits have never felt so good :)
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said... Rob What do you think of the HBC archival weather records going back 200 years before St Johns. I understand that those are now available.
ReplyDeleteI know that there are HBC weather records for York Factory and Churchill from the 1700s. They kept excellent weather records for the time, with detailed notes on temperature, precipitation, wind and other weather phenemona. I don't know if HBC weather records exist for Winnipeg (HBC came here in the 1810s) but if they do, it would very interesting to see them.
>> Anonymous said... I'm loving this warm up. Temperatures in the minus single digits have never felt so good :)
ReplyDeleteMPI and CAA must be loving this milder weather too. It's been a crazy 4-5 weeks for them, with this cold weather taking a toll on cars and road conditions. I don't remember the roads in the city being as bad as they've been these past few weeks.. just horrible with the ice and ruts leading to so many accidents. Earlier this week on Ness, I saw a car sail up a snowbank and plow into a hydro pole right in front me!
Rob, does that storm system for next Wednesday look like anything major for us in terms of snowfall here in Winnipeg/RRV?
ReplyDeleteRight now, models are showing bulk of snowfall with Wednesday's system will fall across central MB into NW Ontario, with lesser amounts for Winnipeg (but we should still see some) Of greater concern will be the strong NW winds behind the system which would give blowing and drifting snow problems. Colder shot of air behind system but then a quick rebound by end of week.
ReplyDeleteRobbed of a potentially balmy day here in Winnipeg. After only briefly cresting above zero, cold advection taking hold. Meanwhile most of North Dakota and Minnesota are basking in temperatures of 4-6 C and sunny skies.
ReplyDeleteHey Rob,
ReplyDeleteAny further update on the snow this week? WN seems pretty firm on 5 - 10 cm for Wednesday.
Thanks,
Todd.. Models all agree that a fairly strong clipper system will track from northern Saskatchewan into the central MB interlake Wednesday then into NW Ontario by Thursday. Greatest threat for heaviest snow would be across central MB into the interlake areas, but even Winnipeg could see 5 to perhaps 10 cm by Thursday. Note that our temperature climbs to near freezing Wednesday so there should be some melting (maybe even some patchy freezing rain), but also some gusty winds in the southerlies ahead, and then the NW winds behind.
ReplyDeleteRob, could you please tell me what causes the winds to be so strong in the Lethbridge to Pincher Creek area in Southern Alberta?? It seems so many times their wind gusts are over 100km/h.
ReplyDeleteWould not be surprised to see a blizzard watch posted for North Dakota for this upcoming storm system. Blowing snow warnings also seem possible for Southern Manitoba!!
ReplyDeletehi Rob...
ReplyDeleteyou should find someone trusted to moderate your blog.
With a storm approaching it is frustrating when such a great resource goes silent. Understandable that you are likely out of touch / busy... but I'm sure i'm not the only one checking for posts and dialogue who is disappointed not to see any discussion on tomorrows weather.
Keep up the great comments and consider allowing someone to police the idiots when you are unavailable!
regards,
Ryan in Rivergrove
Appreciate your comments. As you correctly suspected, I'm not available this week to update my blog as I'm out of town for work, and have limited time to keep up on the current weather. As far as tomorrow's intense clipper is concerned, looks like a nasty morning shaping up with strong southerly winds and 4-8 cm of snow falling which will result in blowing and drifting snow with local whiteouts at times through midday. Snow should ease up in the afternoon, and then we turn considerably milder as our winds shift to the west and tap a mild Pacific airmass from the western prairies.
ReplyDeleteSorry I can't provide more details and updates on this upcoming system, but you may want to visit the "A Weather Moment" website to provide more details on it. AWM is an excellent resource for local weather and can provide valuable information if I'm not able to update my blog as frequently as people would like (myself included)
Hey Rob,
ReplyDeleteI know you are away at the moment but if you get a chance can you confirm another system for Friday (5-10cm).
Thanks,
Check out the forecast text for this afternoon...
ReplyDelete" Risk of a thunderstorm late this afternoon. "
Thundersnow, anyone?
Today's public weather forecast for the city of Winnipeg was an absolute mess (and an embarrassment IMO). I think EC should have removed the threats of CB & ZR after 2PM.
ReplyDeleteDid Winnipeg break a record high temperature today? According to EC, the temperature was 2.2C earlier this evening so the temperature at least tied the record.
ReplyDeleteI answered my own question. EC says Winnipeg reached 3.3C on Jan. 15. The old record was broken.
ReplyDeleteWOW, wind gusts to 104km/h last night in Portage La Prairie. That was quite the cold front last night!!
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg's forecast is calling for 5 to 10 cm of snow tomorrow night. Snow plow operators are sure being kept busy this year.
ReplyDeleteInteresting to fly thru and land at ywg. Im sure the traffic on St Annes road was moving faster than we were. Seemed like 20 minutes from the SE perimeter to touchdown at the airport at just before midnite wednesday.
ReplyDeleteRob, regarding how often you are able to update this blog. From my perspective you are providing a great service. You sure aren't being paid to do it and it's out of the goodness of your heart and your passion for meteorology. Thanks for what you do. It's always easy to ask for me but I appreciate what you are able to do for us as it stands.
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteAny update on how much snow we might be getting this evening?
Rob,
ReplyDeleteAny update on how much snow we might be getting this evening?
Snowfall total was an average of 6.5 cm over 3 measurements in east Charleswood.
ReplyDeleteSnowdepth at my place in Winnipeg is around 45cm of snow in most spots. With some areas approaching 60cm. I'm so done with shoveling this season!!
ReplyDeleteAnother 2 cm of snow tonight has fallen in Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteI know that snowcovers can melt pretty quick, but I have that feeling that this one will be hanging out till April like last season.
ReplyDeleteHey Rob,
ReplyDeleteWondering if you are back or is this blog just dead?
Not even the crickets are chirping here.
ReplyDeleteWindchill is brutal out there this morning. So getting tired of this winter!!
ReplyDeleteHey Rob,
ReplyDeleteI was wondering if there is a radar which shows the snow in the northern prairies? Reason I ask is lately the snow has been moving in from the north west. You look on the radar and you don't see any snow on the radar. You think it is done snowing and then the snow keeps coming.
I've looked at EC and KTIV but they don't seem to show any snow much further north than Winnipeg.
Any help would be appreciated.
Thanks!
Todd.. Keep in mind that in Manitoba, EC only has 2 radars.. one at Woodlands (NW of Winnipeg) and one at Foxwarren (NW of Brandon) These radars have limited reach.. about 200 km from the radar site which goes up to just north of Swan River over to Berens River. No radar coverage north of this line.
ReplyDeleteIn Saskatchewan, EC has radars near Regina and Saskatoon. Little or no radar coverage north of Prince Albert which makes it tough tracking precip coming in from the northern Prairies.
That being said, I find the radar viewer from A Weather Moment to be the best radar display tool.. great navigation and animation tools to monitor radar in the Prairies.
http://aweathermoment.com/radar-viewer
Well, I'm back in town after a week in southern Ontario. I was hoping I'd be missing any -30C weather while I was away but Mother Nature made sure to save it for when I came back. Isn't that thoughtful of her? I was hoping to start blogging about something other than clipper systems and wind chills.. but alas, doesn't look like much has changed since before I left. Will try to update the blog as soon as I find some motivation.. :)
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob!!!
ReplyDelete