Monday, October 07, 2013
Pleasant fall weather continues through mid week.. Storm system threatens rain by end of week
Pleasant fall weather will continue over southern MB over the next couple of days as an upper ridge crosses Manitoba maintaining dry and warmer than normal conditions. Temperatures will climb to the 20C mark Tuesday with partly sunny skies and light breezes. Temperatures will remain above normal in the mid to upper teens through Thursday before the next threat of rain by Friday as a Colorado low storm system tracks into southern MB. At this point, it appears that the bulk of heaviest rain with this system will be over western MB and along the SK border where 25 to 50 mm is possible Friday into early Saturday.
Posted by rob at 6:32 PM
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I know long term forecasts are not your specialty but do you see any snow on the horizon? Seeing the snow already in south Dakota on the weekend makes me think snow cannot be too far off.
No signs of snow for us this week or next.. Looks like we we are well above normal this week, and then cooling off to near normal over the weekend into next week. After that though.. who knows? Hopefully we have a nice delayed to start to winter this year after it overstayed its welcome last spring.ReplyDelete
What's the latest on the Colorado. I overheard someone saying that we might get a thunderstorm friday. How rare is it to get a storm in October?
Thunderstorms in October are unsual, but not unheard of. We've even had a thunderstorm as late as November!
As for tomorrow, it does look like a good setup for elevated thunderstorms over southern MB later Friday into Friday evening. Deep upper low over Dakotas with strong jet tapping some elevated instability will trigger a band of thunderstorms that should spread into the RRV by late afternoon or evening.. likely reaching Winnipeg as well. SPC even has a slight risk of severe storms over us with hail and possible weak tornadoes (although personally I don't see a tornado threat with this setup)
Rob something I'm not understanding. This latest low is passing directly over us yet most of the rain is falling west of here. I would think that being right in the eye/center of the storm, like a hurricane, its the epicenter for the most weather in terms of accumulations and other severe weather and what not.ReplyDelete
Unlike tropical systems, mid latitude storm systems like the one affecting us today generally don't have precipitation shields that are concentric around the center. That's because they have fronts associated with them, with different moisture and lift fields, so the precip patterns are more complex and disorganized compared to the more uniform hurricane structure. Often, the heaviest precipitation area of a well developed mid latitude storm system will be located to the northwest of the storm center where there's maximum lift and convergence resulting in a more widespread area of steady precip (rain or snow), while precip is more scattered (showery) near and the east of the center.
Looks like the last warm day today before we get back into Normal weather for next week. Some of the models are showing quite a cool airmass at the end of next week!!ReplyDelete
Airport observed thunderstorm with light rain shower at 8:00. what the heck????I don't remember hearing any thunder then.ReplyDelete
looks like i won't be pickin' em daisy's tomorrow, to much rain.:(ReplyDelete
I heard a few rumbles in Westwood with a brief downpour at about 8:00. nothing to right home about though.
Hi Rob - I've been reading about a severe weather phenomenon called a derecho. I was wondering - has such an event ever occurred in Manitoba to the best of your knowledge? Thanks.ReplyDelete
Rob , with 850mb temps forecast to be between -5 to -8 on some of the models. HowReplyDelete
Cold could the daytime highs be next weekend ?
Evan... I'm not aware of any confirmed derecho events in southern MB, but I suspect there have been some. One likely derecho was the June 1922 severe storm event that killed 6 people in Portage La Prairie and has long been suspected was caused by a tornado. Given that it was in the middle if the night, and was a widespread severe wind event that started in eastern SK in the evening and plowed through of all southern MB that night, it appears that such an event was a derecho type storm rather than a tornado.ReplyDelete
Anonymous... 850 temps of -5 to -8c would result in daytime highs around +5C depending on cloud cover and wind direction. Could even see some flurries if 850 temps got down that low..ReplyDelete
Rob do you have any thoughts on the next Colorado low this week coming up it looks like it is going to miss us? Any thoughts?ReplyDelete
Rob, I know that you commented a while back that you wish the warm weather would last until December, since mother nature was so cruel to us this past spring!!ReplyDelete
I think mother nature is showing no mercy, as from it what it sounds like, a large blocking pattern is setting up and sending down some cold shots for the next while!!
For those of you who follow this sort of bunk.
Rob, do you think that Winnipeg will have a chance to see it's first snowflakes of the season this weekend??ReplyDelete
FrankOctober 16, 2013 6:09 pmReplyDelete
This is an interesting long range prediction from the old farmers almanac.
Free 2-Month Weather Forecast
OCTOBER 2013: temperature 7°C (1°C above avg.); precipitation 10mm (10mm below avg.); Oct 1-9: A few showers east, turning warm; rain and snow showers, cold west; Oct 10-15: Sunny, mild; Oct 16-24: Showers, then sunny, mild; Oct 25-31: Flurries, turning cold.
NOVEMBER 2013: temperature Temp. -0.5°C (2.5°C above avg.); precipitation 15mm (5mm below avg.); Nov 1-6: Rain and snow showers; cold east, turning mild west; Nov 7-12: Snowy periods, cold; Nov 13-26: Sunny, mild; Nov 27-30: Snow showers, then sunny, cold.
Annual Weather Summary: November 2013 to October 2014Winter temperatures will be colder than normal, on average, with the coldest periods in mid- to late December, much of January, and early to mid-February. Snowfall will be above normal, with precipitation slightly below normal in Alberta and above normal elsewhere. The heaviest snowfalls will occur in early to mid-January, mid- to late January, and mid- to late February.
April and May will be warmer and slightly drier than normal.
Summer will be slightly warmer and rainier than normal, on average, with the hottest periods in late July, early August, and mid-August.
September and October will be warmer and drier than normal.
NWS Grand Forks is calling for the potential of 1-3 inches of snow on Saturday night into Sunday morning!! Maybe we might get a dusting if that system get close enough!!ReplyDelete
Clipper tracking through SK into ND Saturday night will be responsible for season's first snowfall over SW MB Saturday night into Sunday morning. Higher elevations may see 5 cm or so.. Winnipeg/RRV should be east of main activity based on current guidance. But we will be cold..ReplyDelete
Spent the past few days in my native Niagara.. still felt like September down there. 20C with many trees still green. Tomatoes still ripening in the garden. I see they'll be cooling off as well this weekend into next week..
Rob, speaking of Niagara... I've moved to Kitchener-Waterloo and I cannot find a weather blog for Southern Ontario of the same calibre as either your blog, A Weather Moment, or JJ's blog. I've found a couple based out of Toronto that are updated regularly but they're technical weather-geek gobbledegook... I need to read someone who knows how to write and explain.ReplyDelete
Perhaps I've just not looked hard enough. If you're aware of any, though, please give me a head's up, thanks!
Evan.. You might try Hamilton Weather at https://www.facebook.com/wxHAMILTON or follow his twitter acct at @WeatherHAMILTON. Not sure if he has an actual blog, but he seems to be on top of the weather around the Hamilton/Niagara area with frequent updates in an easy to understand format. Might be worth a look.ReplyDelete
Welcome back Rob. I was looking at the weather models the other day and noticed something called 2m wet bulb temperature. I read the description on college du page site , but did not understand WHEN that could be used in forecasting...thanks.ReplyDelete
Anonymous.. 2 metre wet bulb temperature of 0C can be used to determine where precip changes to snow. Any precip falling at or below 0C would be snow.ReplyDelete
Winter weather advisory issued for areas along the border and south to Grand Forks!ReplyDelete
By the way, the JJC comment on this post on Oct 16 is not me. When I comment on this blog, I will be using this account from now on to eliminate the confusion.ReplyDelete