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12 hr snowfall amounts from RGEM
valid 7 am Sun Oct 20 2013
dark blue: 1 cm, darker green: 5 cm |
A clipper system over Saskatchewan today will track into North Dakota tonight bringing the first accumulating snow of the season to parts of SW Manitoba and North Dakota. The precipitation is expected to push into SW Manitoba later today into this evening, possibly starting as rain before changing to all snow tonight. About 2-5 cm of snow is expected along a path from the Roblin/Riding Mtn Park area through Brandon into the Pilot Mound/Turtle Mtn area into North Dakota. Locally higher amounts are possible over higher elevations. The system will track into North Dakota Sunday and will signal a pattern change to colder than normal weather over southern MB for the balance of the week, likely persisting through the rest of the month. Occasional snowshowers are likely Sunday across southern MB, including Winnipeg, with localized heavier snowbands possible to the south of lakes Winnipeg and Manitoba. Ready or not folks.. colder weather is on the way!
First flurries of the season in Winnipeg!
ReplyDeleteRob, do you think some lake effect snow showers will set up later today with the cold NW flow of the warm lakes??
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said... Rob, do you think some lake effect snow showers will set up later today with the cold NW flow of the warm lakes??
ReplyDeleteYes, and in fact, they're starting up already off Lake Manitoba and will develop this afternoon off the south basin of Lake Winnipeg. RGEM is indicating the band off Lake Winnipeg will intensify this evening and become a fairly strong band extending through Beausejour/Milner Ridge area south towards Hadashville. Could see local amounts of 5-10 cm within this band by Monday morning. Driving could become a little tricky tonight on Hwys 44 and 15 east of Winnipeg.
Windchills already down to -10 in Winnipeg this late evening. Brrr....
ReplyDeleteSnow squalls have formed off of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba and are situated roughly north to south. The snow squall off of Lake Manitoba is affecting the Trans-Canada Highway just east of Portage la Prairie, and the snow squall off of Lake Winnipeg is affecting highway 59 between Selkirk and Victoria Beach.
ReplyDeleteCold air aloft combined with relatively warm lake temperatures will result in the continuation of snow squalls through the day. Up to 15 cm of snow is expected with these very narrow snow squalls. Near-zero visibility can also be expected with these snow squalls.
Just heard a report on CJOB news from a Gimli resident saying there was a foot of snow on the ground!
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg, MB, Canada / 680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader
ReplyDeleteCJOB Team Coverage
October 22, 2013 07:44 am
Heavy wet snow overnight left many residents in Gimli searching the trunk for a snow brush.
Residents calling 680 CJOB report up to 20cm of snow in parts of the Interlake which is making driving treacherous.
“We woke up to an entire yard and street blanketed with snow. The trees were hanging down quite heavy because it was a thick, wet snow.”
Judy Murphy who lives in Gimli says Highway 8 near Gimli was quite slippery requiring traffic to reduce speeds to about 40 kmh. But as she travelled south, just past Teulon, winter disappeared and it was summer all over again.
There was also light snow reported west of Winnipeg. Light snow started falling inside the city around 8 a.m.
Someone else reported finding three to four inches of snow in the Warren area. He says by the time he reached Stonewall, though, there was no snow left on the ground.
Highway conditions were an issue Tuesday morning. Highway 26, east of Portage la Prairie, was partly covered with ice and snow. A collision on the Portage la Prairie bypass shutdown the westbound lanes to traffic before 8 a.m.
A stretch of Highway 8 between Winnipeg and Gimli was also icey Tuesday morning.
According to environment canada , things could get really interesting with regards to snowsquall activity later tonight and tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteTemperature took a big nosedive at winnipeg airport. Down to -8 C at 2:00 in the morning.
ReplyDeleteRob, trying to predict where the snowsqualls will line up and how much snow will fall, has got to be one of the toughest forecasting jobs.
ReplyDeleteFirst the warning for the Lake Manitoba area....then it was dropped. Now this morning it looks like that is where the action is while the snowsquall warning area, see's nothing!!
Anonymous... Yes, lake effect precipitation is a challenging forecast problem, a lot more complex than just getting cold air over warm water.
ReplyDeleteI was surprised there wasn't anything off the lakes last night.. not even a flake. The stuff moving across Lake Manitoba this morning isn't lake effect, but an area of light snow with some clouds moving in from the northwest. Models have been insistent that some heavier squalls will develop off the north basin of Lake Winnipeg this afternoon and tonight and affect areas further to the southeast. Hence the warning for the eastern Interlake and areas southeast of the lake. Less activity expected off Manitoba.
Rob, looking at the next 10 days or so, do you see any potential major systems affecting Southern MB?
ReplyDeleteNone of the major long range models are pointing to any big storms for southern MB through the next week or so. We'll get some clippers, but nothing to indicate a major storm system at this point. We'll see if that outlook changes...
ReplyDeleteTurning out to be a real nice warm day today, other than the strong winds. Rob, I see that a few days have forecasted highs below zero next week. Just curious if you could tell me , around how cold are the RECORD DAYTIME high's . I guessing daytime highs below freezing at the end of October are nothing record breaking???
ReplyDeleteAnonymous... Record low daytime highs in Winnipeg for the last week of October are in the -5 to -9C range.. usually a result of snow cover. Those sub freezing highs next week will be well below normal, but I think we're safe from record lows given that we don't have snow on the ground.
ReplyDeleteYou can access record temperatures for Winnipeg at the top of my "stats page" available in the STATS drop down list on my website, or by clicking MORE on the silver stats bar under my Robs Obs current weather graphic.
Hi Rob. I was wondering if you could answer my weather question.
ReplyDeleteMore often that not, whenever a cold front goes through the winds get gusty during the afternoon hours and drop off very quickly as soon as the sun sets.
Sometimes like tonight, the sun sets, and winds drop off only a little and stay quite breezy. Why is that?? I always hear the word MIXING....Is that why winds are strongest during the daylight hours because of mixing??
Anonymous.. Mixing is a term used to describe the effect of instability in the lower atmosphere to bring down stronger winds aloft to the surface. This is most common during the afternoons in warm season months when the sun can heat the surface enough to create an unstable environment that can bring down stronger wind gusts from aloft. Once the surface cools in the evening, the atmosphere becomes stable and the "mixing" process ends.. which is why the winds often drop off after sunset in the summer months.
ReplyDeleteOnce we get snow on the ground, that tends to stabilize the low levels as we get an inversion with colder air at the surface than aloft. In that case, strong winds aloft don't get mixed down and stay aloft. Instead, surface wind in the cold months is driven mainly be pressure gradients caused by weather systems (highs, lows, fronts, etc). In these cases, time of day doesn't play into the wind as they are tied to when the strongest pressure gradient is being realized... day or night.
Hello Rob,
ReplyDeleteI'm Curios why we have are getting all of this cold weather over the past year? Isn't global warming supposed to make WARMER then normal intsead of colder?
Thanks,
Jeff
Actually, it is of note that this October in Winnipeg has actually been warmer than normal so far (up to today... likely wont be by the 31st due to this most recent cold). Although global warming might be true, that doesn't mean we wont get cold snaps here and there.
ReplyDeleteJeff..
ReplyDeleteGlobal warming, or more accurately, climate change, does not mean that we won't ever get cold weather again. In fact, climate change theory actually supports prolonged periods of colder than normal weather on occasion due to greater frequency of "blocking patterns" in the atmosphere that gives us stretches of warmer or colder than normal weather.
Global warming theory merely suggests that the overall climate is warming.. which is actually happening when you look at our overall normal temperatures compared to 30 years ago. Consider the stock market. Over a long period of time, the overall graph shows an upward climb, but on any given day, you can have ups and downs with prolonged periods of bull markets or bear markets. Our climate is similar. Overall, the graph is going up.. but that doesn't mean we won't see down (i.e. colder) periods. Global warming merely suggests that the frequency and intensity of these colder periods will be less severe than in the past. Again.. we're seeing evidence of that. Winnipeg used to have more -30C and -40C weather before.. now it's becoming less and less frequent.
Nasty wind out there today with temperatures falling below freezing..
ReplyDeleteAt least we don't have to deal with the snow they're getting in Alberta! #tooearly
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeleteIs the warming trend equal in all seasons or is it more pronounced at certain times of the year?
Yikes. There is some really cold air up north in Nunavut. There are some locations that will have daytime highs 5 C COLDER than their normal overnight lows!! Brrrr!!
ReplyDeleteAndy.. Yes, the warming trend has been most pronounced in our winter months, especially January which now has a 30 year mean that is almost 3C warmer than 30 years ago. Spring months are slightly warmer (although May is a bit cooler, likely due to wetter conditions) Summers are about the same as before, although August and September have been slightly warmer than in the past. Falls are slightly warmer as well, especially November as we've generally seen later starts to winter over the past 10-15 years. Put it all together, and Winnipeg's average annual temperature over 30 years is now about +3.0C, compared to +2.3C in the 1951-80 timeframe. An increase of 0.7C may not seem like a lot, but it's significant when you're talking about annual averages over a 30 year timeframe. And more importantly, that increase has been trending up in the past 20 years while it was pretty stable before that.
ReplyDeleteNote, these are seasonal trends based on the last decade or so.. and do not necessarily mean that every season will behave as these trends suggest. We still have year to year variability (as we all know too well!)
Rob, don't you think the weather around here has been a little drab and boring as of late. What I think Winnipeg needs is a blizzard with 30 cm of snow and -20 windchills. Wouldn't that be fun??
ReplyDeleteAnonymous....
ReplyDeleteI'm OK with boring at this time of year... I for one can wait until December or January for more "exciting" weather. :) But I know many people can't wait for that snow to arrive. There were hints of us getting our first accumulating snow on Sunday, but newest model runs are pushing the main threat further north and west of Winnipeg.. which is fine with me. :) The longer we can hold off winter, the better!
Never mind drab and boring as of late. Its been drab and boring all year. Winnipeg is becoming the most boring place ever weather wise, if you're into extreme weather.
ReplyDelete