Sunday, January 06, 2013
Mild week ahead.. then turning colder by weekend into next week
It will be a nice reprieve from mid winter cold this week as a mild Pacific flow prevails over the Prairies. Temperatures in southern Manitoba will be some 10-15 degrees above normal, with normal highs running around -13C this time of year. For Monday, a brisk westerly wind will bring mild air from western Canada, with highs approaching the freezing mark over the RRV. On Tuesday, a weather system tracking across southern Manitoba is forecast to bring a band of snow across the RRV, with 2-5 cm possible. Temperatures will remain above normal with above freezing highs possible Thursday. Things will get a little more interesting Friday as a storm system tracks to the southeast of Manitoba, drawing colder air in from the north, along with a threat of snow. It's too early to say how much snow will fall with this system, but the potential is there for 5-10 cm if the system tracks close enough, along with brisk northerly winds and falling temperatures. This storm system will signal a trend to colder weather for the weekend into next week, with a spell of below normal temperatures likely.
Posted by rob at 5:00 PM
Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)
Next week certainly does look cold (highs in the mid -20's possibly). A nice traditional Manitoba winter.ReplyDelete
Looks and feels more like freezing drizzle than snowflakes in the south end this evening. Might get a little slick out there tonight.ReplyDelete
That strong southerly wind is also causing some blowing and drifting snow issues.. that will also cause some slick conditions especially on and outside the Perimeter.ReplyDelete
Wow looks like a switch to a SSW and SW wind overnight was enough to cause temps to skyrocket to -1°C. That straight south wind wasn't doing much good.ReplyDelete
I see weather network is calling for 10-15 cm on Friday.ReplyDelete
Airport has popped up to +1C as of 8 am, with a nice balmy west wind gusting to 50 km/h. Stronger gusts of 60-70 km/h to our west in Portage and Brandon areas. Our first above freezing high in a month. Feels nice!ReplyDelete
I'm curious to see what the euro models are showing for snow this week as so far both American and Canadian models are indicating 10+ CM of snow by next weekend.ReplyDelete
I'm hearing some rumblings of Friday snowfall being a 10+ CM with very strong winds.
What are the latest indications for this possible storm Friday?
Still too early to give much more details on Friday's system.. Canadian and European models are similar in bringing surface low and trof across southeast MB Friday, with increasing north winds bringing colder air and some snow into southern MB. Swath of heaviest snow (10cm +) appears through the Interlake at this time, but that can change and anybody in southern MB would be under the threat of some snow.ReplyDelete
American guidance (GFS) from last night was a bit more progressive and weaker on this system, with lesser amounts of snow noted over southern MB. We'll see how the models trend on this system over the next few days, but at this point, suffice to say the potential is there for some accumulating snow Friday... followed by colder weather by the weekend.
Yeah definately much colder weather headed our way....Sure looking scary cold next week. Enjoy he warmer temps this week, folks.ReplyDelete
the warmer temps and not he warmer temps
I see temps have dropped back below the freezing mark in a more NW flow now after briefly popping up to +1C earlier.ReplyDelete
Wow. This morning on the radio they said it would stay around 0 all day, now it's supposed to drop to -6.ReplyDelete
New guidance this morning regarding Friday system:ReplyDelete
Cold front comes through RRV Friday morning with northerly winds and cold advection, along with some snow.. perhaps 2-3 cm associated along and behind cold front. Main storm system intensifies over northern Minnesota Friday night bringing swath of heavier snow over southeast MB and RRV, with 10 cm possible Friday night into Saturday, along with cold northerly winds and blowing/drifting snow.
The key to how much snow we get will be how far SE this storm tracks Friday night. Some models track it towards Duluth which would minimize snowfall amounts for RRV, while others are further west and give us more snow. A wait and see game at this point.. but potential exists for some dicey travel conditions Friday into Saturday over southern MB/NW Ontario. Stay tuned..
Noticed that temps are rising a bit this evening with light southwesterly flow in cloudy skies but suspect that temps will fall again as skies clear overnightReplyDelete
Looks like the airport is starting the year 'well'. Already lots of erroneous precip amounts popping up.ReplyDelete
The enesmble is quite persistent with the frigid temperatures next week and into the follow week as well. Squeaky snow weather.ReplyDelete
Latest guidance on Friday system..ReplyDelete
Last night's guidance has sped up timing of cold front Friday, pushing it through RRV Thursday night with band of snow associated with cold advection behind front. 2-5 cm possible over YWG/RRV Thursday night into Friday morning along with drifting and blowing snow possible. Friday morning commute will be tricky, especially with snow on top of hard freeze after Thursday's thaw. Temps continue to fall through the day Friday with occasional snow and cold northerly winds.
Wave develops on frontal boundary to our southeast and intensifies later Friday into Friday night with large swath of steadier snow mainly affecting eastern ND, NW Minnesota, NW Ontario and SE MB. Could see 10 cm+ in this area along with cold north winds and blowing snow issues. At this point, models indicate this area of heavier snow will be affecting areas mainly SE of Winnipeg, but it's close enough to warrant close attention to see if there's any westward drift of the expected precip shield. Back into the deep freeze for the weekend into next week.
Area of snow to our southwest spreading east towards RRV.. snow should be starting in Winnipeg by early afternoon, with a couple of cm possible. Gusty south winds will give blowing and drifting snow as well, with some poor vsbys at times with bursts of heavier snow.ReplyDelete
Morning aircraft soundings out of Winnipeg show an above freezing layer between 850-925 mb, with +2C at 927 mb. Could be seeing some ice pellets mixing in with the snow today.ReplyDelete
Light snow has moved into Winnipeg, slightly heavier snow off to our west will be spreading in over the next hour or so.
Nice burst of heavier snow moving through Winnipeg.. narrow band shouldn't last too long with improving visibilities from the west shortly.ReplyDelete
With much colder weather ahead over the weekend, how cold is it expected to become here next week. Are we looking at - 35 C bitter cold or similar cold that we experienced over Christmas?
Models show the coldest core of air next week remaining to our north and then slipping to the southeast over eastern NA.. So I think we'll be in the -20s, with some -30s possible a couple nights. But models seems to be progressive on the coldest air, so hopefully that means the coldest weather we get doesn't hang around for too long.ReplyDelete
Keep in mind though, these are long range model predictions.. which often have difficulty during pattern transitions. So the cold air could be deeper and longer lasting than they currently indicate.
Snow has intensified again over Winnipeg, with back edge approaching Headingley-Sanford line. Should be thru Winnipeg next half hour or so, then that should be it for the snow. Temps will climb to 0C behind the snow this afternoon.. so area roadways should be mainly wet. Top up the windshield fluid!ReplyDelete
Any idea how much snow fell today?
Tough to get an accurate measurement due to the wind and melting.. but the Forks station reported 1.4 mm melted snow, so about 1-2 cm is probably a good estimate for Winnipeg.ReplyDelete
Any new word on Fridays system?
Model guidance from today is indicating snow starting in the pre-dawn hours Friday for Winnipeg and continuing much of the day before tapering off Friday night. Early snowfall estimates are anywhere from 5-15 cm for Winnipeg/RRV, along with brisk north winds and temps in the minus teens, with blowing and drifting snow likely given those temperatures, winds and snowfall amounts. Will keep you posted on updates as we get closer to the event..
Latest NAM and GFS tonight ramping up snow totals over Winnipeg and RRV for Friday through Friday night with amounts of 15-25 cm now being forecast. In addition, northerly winds will be gusting to 60 kmh or higher, especially by Friday night which could result in near blizzard conditions if snow materializes as predicted. GGEM lighter on the snow amounts with about 10 cm forecast for Winnipeg Friday, while Euro was showing about 10-15 cm for the city.. more to the SE.ReplyDelete
Still early and things can change, but it appears like threat for a significant winter storm affecting parts of RRV/SE MB are increasing for Friday. We'll see if models continue to trend that way over the next day or so. Stay tuned.
Still a big difference between the NAM/GFS and the GEM regarding snowfall over Winnipeg/RRV Friday into early Saturday. NAM/GFS continue to show 15-25 cm of snow possible Friday into early Saturday while GEM grazes us with about 5 cm Friday. Latest EURO dropped a bit to 5-10 cm over us.ReplyDelete
The higher amounts from the GFS and NAM are based on two things.. 1) a narrow band of heavier snow (10 cm) across YWG/nrn RRV Friday associated with strong cold advection and 700 mmb trof over us (perhaps hinting at some frontogenetic forcing) and 2) getting more snow Friday night into early Saturday (another 10 cm) on NW flank of main storm system tracking over Minnesota. GEM is more progressive on this storm (further east) and so is the Euro, so GFS/NAM may be overdoing amounts for us. But we'll see which camp trends which way over the next day or so.
I do think however that Winnipeg will be seeing snow and blowing snow Friday into Friday evening, with heavier amounts likely over SE MB. The current forecast of 60% chance of flurries for Winnipeg Friday is an automated forecast that is likely underdoing the snowfall potential.
Hey Rob Thanks for the updates. Its really two bad about the automated forecasts. It really gives people the impression that traveling on the weekend may not have any issues. I have had two people this morning mentioning travel and were surprised when I told them there was a possibility of real snow and bad conditions.ReplyDelete
Rob, where can you see precip progs for the euro models? I can't seem to find this information anywhere online to the public.ReplyDelete
Does EC, WN and Accurate weather all use different weather models?
Hey rob question for you, why is it that Wunderground is calling for 25+cm of snow in total through Thursday and Friday Night? Is it overdoing these amounts or is it likely we will get that much?ReplyDelete
I get Euro precip data from the Norwegian met site..ReplyDelete
They give 6 hr precip values for any place in the world. It's really the only place I can get precip amounts from the ECWF model. Link appears as "EURO" on my main webpage under the forecast graphic.
And yes, American sources like Accuweather and Wx Underground would use only American model data (like NAM and GFS) for their forecasts. This is why they're calling for much more snow than Canadian sources right now.
The main difference in the amounts coming up is with the main storm system Friday night into Saturday. NAM and GFS sock us pretty good with a good 10-15 cm Friday night into Saturday morning, while GEM takes it east. As I mentioned , we'll have to wait and see how the models trend with this system.
I see that as usual NWS in North Dakota has put out a Winter Storm Watch in Western North Dakota and Special Weather Statement in Eastern North Dakota well ahead of this possible major storm.ReplyDelete
Just another example on how much further ahead the U.S. are compared to Canada when it comes to Meteorology.
Or likely an example of how much more staff they have compared EC. They have dozens of people doing what 1 to 3 forecasters do at any given time here.ReplyDelete
In fairness to EC, the storm's impact is still uncertain over southern MB. There needs to be higher confidence that a particular region will likely see significant snowfall before they start issuing watches.ReplyDelete
That being said, I suspect there may be some statements or watches being posted over parts of the RRV and SE MB tomorrow if models keep trending the way they are. But it's still a wait and see game at this point.
What are the chances for Blizzard like conditions here Friday night given the likelyhood of very strong northerly winds with the system?
If the NAM/GFS verify, then I'd say there's a good chance of blizzard conditions in the RRV, particularly in the southern valley towards the US border where northerly winds will be the strongest.
Even if we get less snow than the US models are suggesting, there still could be blizzard like conditions in the RRV Friday into Friday night given the strong northerly winds and minus teen temperatures with falling snow. Even light snowfall amounts can give significant blowing snow problems given those conditions.
Wow! Just saw the morning run of the GGEM, and it's trended towards the NAM and GFS with a full out winter storm over RRV and SE MB Friday through Friday night into early Saturday. 10-20 cm of snow with 25 cm + possible over far SE MB, but the big issue will be the strong north winds with widespread blowing and drifting snow and minus teen temps giving possible blizzard conditions throughout the RRV and SE MB Friday into Fri night.. This is getting more and more interesting folks! I'll be updating the situation with a new blog post by the end of the day.ReplyDelete
Great looks like another 30 to 60 minute wait for the bus on FridayReplyDelete
ROB re full out winter storm over RRV and SE MB Friday, Is this an Interesting parallel to other major storms?ReplyDelete
Are there any archival weather system records of the Extremely windy thursday and a reportedly an on again off warning only a few hours before .. Friday Mar 4/66 Storm. Don
Correction Last line Should read "Until" a few hours beforeReplyDelete
Looks like the new Regional GEM is also favouring the heavier snow over Winnipeg.ReplyDelete
Seems like models are really coming together with this storm Friday.ReplyDelete
If this storm comes together and hits us as significantly as models are currently indicating, it's not looking good.
Definately gonna be very tough travelling this weekend.
Increasingly looks like main event for us will be Friday night into early Saturday as Colorado low tracks up over northern Minnesota.. similar to our Nov 10th storm that brought heavy snow across much of southern MB. That period will coincide with the heaviest snowfall rates and strongest winds, leading to greatest chance of blizzard conditions. Luckily, worst of storm should be occurring Friday night which should minimize travel impact somewhat, although Saturday morning travel will be quite restricted with blowing and drifting snow as storm is pulling out.ReplyDelete
At this point, it looks like snowfall during the day Friday will be light at first as cold air deepens behind cold front, with perhaps 5 cm in Winnipeg ahead of deepening Colorado low tracking into Minnesota. Snowfall could be locally higher under heavier snow bands which will set up in a southwest-northeast orientation across RRV, but impossible to say where right now. Snow should increase through the afternoon becoming heavier by evening as main low spreads widespread snow shield across southern MB. Another 5-15 cm possible Friday night into Saturday morning, with heaviest amounts mainly south and east of Winnipeg. It's important not to focus too much on snow amounts as the strong north winds will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow across the RRV.
I'll be putting up a full blog post on this storm system this evening, along with another snow poll. Stay tuned!
Pretty incredible blizzard to hit eastern Newfoundland about a day before us (tomorrow night/Friday). Forecasts are calling for over 40 cm, possibly as much as 60 cm for St. John's along with winds sustained near 80 and gusts to 110 km/h. Sounds massive, but imagine trying to shovel that when the snow there is extremely wet and heavy..ReplyDelete