Sunday, August 12, 2012
Cooler weather this week..
Cooler than normal weather is expected this week over Southern Manitoba as an upper trough intensifies over the eastern Prairies by midweek ushering in a northwest flow of cooler air. Generally fair and pleasant weather is expected Monday into Tuesday with highs in the 22-24C range. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, a low pressure system is expected to cross southern Manitoba bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms, possibly with some locally heavy rain, followed by a push of cooler air through the end of the week. High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are only expected to be in the upper teens to near 20C under partly cloudy conditions. Warmer weather is expected on the weekend with a return to normal temperatures in the mid 20s. Normal highs for this time of year are about 25C over southern Manitoba.
Posted by rob at 4:18 PM
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Got a very quick 4-5 mm in south end with a localized but potent downpour.ReplyDelete
Meanwhile the East has been getting some insane thunderstorms this week. L'Assomption, Quebec (an off-island suburb of Montreal) received 83.8mm yesterday.ReplyDelete
That's as much as Winnipeg's all-time record wettest day.
What was that smell (Westwood area) at 6AM this morning?ReplyDelete
Odd forecast for Calgary... " Cloudy. Showers beginning this afternoon. Risk of a severe thunderstorm and risk of a thunderstorm".ReplyDelete
Translation: "Showers and scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe." That's how the forecast would have read back in the day when humans wrote the forecast instead of a machine.
Scott Kehler of Steinbachwx fame has created a slick mesomap for southern Manitoba showing station plots from EC, Manitoba Ag, and Weatherbug sites updated every hour. Click on my name or copy url below..
Calgary getting whacked again.. Thunderstorm with gusts to 97 kmh at YYC airport!ReplyDelete
Some people just have it all.. Any chance that we'll get some storms overnight or tomorrow? (Not necessarily asking severe storms)ReplyDelete
Feeling that fall chill in the air these days and storms are more and more less frequent.
We could see a thunderstorm tomorrow morning ahead of the cold front, with a moderate low level jet tapping some elevated instability, but nothing severe expected. Models show cold front pushing through Winnipeg/RRV around noon, with gusty northwest winds picking up in the afternoon. NAM gives YWG about 8 mm of rain between 6 am and 2 pm while GEM gives us 16 mm of rain between 6 am and midnight. GEM really blows up precip amounts over northern Interlake/central MB with 60-80 mm totals through there (hence rainfall warning issued for those areas)ReplyDelete
I've noticed that ECMWF is going with a cooler pattern from now through mid September which basically means we may not likely see 30C or higher again this season and it's basically putting a quick end to what has been a hot summer which sucks in alot of ways....i don't think anybody is ready to let go of summer yet.
So, basically what is the reason for this sudden change and is our remarkable stretch of 13th consecutive months of above normal temps in jeopardy?
And, could there be a small frost potential thursday night is some areas of southern manitoba?
Just Curious considering we are still in summer would it be possible if we could see more severe weather before autumn comes around? We haven't gotten a decent nocturnal thunderstorm event in a while.ReplyDelete
Anonymous.. Even though we've had 13 consecutive months above normal, there have been periods during that time that we've been below normal. They haven't lasted long, maybe a week or so, but they have occurred periodically. Whether this upcoming cool spell lasts the rest of the month remains to be seen... there are signs that we'll be back to normal over the weekend and into next week. So far, we're averaging just 0.5C above normal for the month. If we get into prolonged cooler weather, then yes.. our above normal streak is in jeopardy.ReplyDelete
Mike.. Yes, we can certainly still get severe thunderstorms into early September.. but the odds are fading quickly. Energy for severe storms is getting less favourable as surface moisture becomes less pronounced, and surface heating becomes more difficult as days get shorter and solar strength decreases. If we can get some good dynamics, we can still get some decent storms.. but again, the season is fading quickly. Best chance for severe storms around here is mainly in June and July when surface moisture and heating are at a maximum.ReplyDelete
Showers and some thunderstorms approaching Winnipeg from the west. Lightning noted to my west.ReplyDelete
Rob Appears to be a clearing trend approaching. Is this the last rain and will there be enough time to get in 18 holes in the afternoon. Winds??ReplyDelete
Anon.. Yes, this first batch of showers has passed through the city with about 5 mm of rain reported in most areas. Looks like we'll be rainfree for a few hours, with another chance of showers as the cold front passes through around midday to early afternoon, then some scattered showers behind it. Overall though, it looks like we've seen the bulk of the rain with this first batch this morning.ReplyDelete
Winds will be from the south this morning then shift into the west early this afternoon behind the front. Winds will pick up as the afternoon progresses with gusts to 70 km/h likely later this afternoon into this evening.
Bottom line.. Not the best day for a golf game, but yes, I think you'll be able to squeeze in a round today, but grounds will be wet and soft, and be prepared for the occasional shower this afternoon, with winds picking up especially mid to late afternoon.
Spot on with that Rob thnx and yes we did.Delete
Another 5 mm of rain this evening on top of the 5 mm I had this morning.. with another 5 or so likely before it tapers off. Interesting to see our first lake effect rain bands of the season developing in the cool NW flow off Lake Manitoba, with a narrow streamer setting up between Portage and Winnipeg.ReplyDelete
Feels like October out there this evening. A brutal reminder of the incoming change of season.ReplyDelete
The next few days is like a flip-flop compared to July. The Pacific coast will be hot while the central and east will be cool. Hopefully this isn't a flip that will lock into place for a while!ReplyDelete
26 C and sunny on Friday! That's great and above normal!ReplyDelete
That 26°C EC advertises is a little optimistic..ReplyDelete
0C this morning in Val Marie, Saskatchewan... OUCH!!!ReplyDelete
Still 24 is not bad for Friday!ReplyDelete
At this time of year Saskatchewan often gets frost!ReplyDelete
850 temps are about 3C warmer tomorrow than today, so we should hit 23-24C Friday.. a nice looking day after a somewhat chilly start with overnight lows of 6-8C expected. Saturday may see a little more cloud than current forecasts indicate as a weak frontal trough drops through southern Manitoba pushed southward by a cool high over northern Manitoba. May even see a light shower moving in from the northwest Saturday. Temperatures will remain somewhat coolish as our winds tap some cooler air through the Interlake.. with highs in the low 20s likely. Sunday looks terrific with sunny skies and light winds.. afternoon highs around 24C, after a chilly morning near +5C. Yep, definitely feeling a little more like September out there! If you're looking for heat this weekend, try the Okanagan.. highs of 36C forecast out there!ReplyDelete
Wow beautiful week coming ahead! The heat is back on!ReplyDelete
Are the models over doing the temps for next week or is another ridge supposed to build in? I'm OK with summer not ending yet.ReplyDelete
No they're not over doing the temps for next week. All of western Canada will be hot and dry.ReplyDelete
25C at the airport that's dead on normal!ReplyDelete
Hi Rob, I am glad to see we are getting back to above normal weather conditions this week. Taking that into consideration how are thing's looking for thunderstorm potential over the next few weeks before we switch into September. Anything at all, even Non Severe?ReplyDelete
Wow it did go over 26C!ReplyDelete