The warmer weather will help prevent, or at least delay, August from becoming our first month in over a year that has averaged below normal. The last month that averaged below normal in Winnipeg was May 2011 (June 2011 was almost exactly normal). Since then, Winnipeg has gone 13 straight months above normal resulting in the warmest 12 month period on record in the city since records began in 1872 (12 month mean of +6.0C between Aug 2011-Jul 2012) Over that time we have set some impressive milestones including..
July 2011 ... driest July on record (10.0 mm)
Aug 2011 ... hottest day since 1995 (37.2C on Aug 23rd)
Oct 2011 ... hottest October day on record (31.1C on Oct 5th)
Dec 2011 ... rare brown Christmas over southern RRV
Jan 2012 ... 3rd warmest January on record
Feb 2012 ... 4th warmest winter on record
Mar 2012 ... Warmest March on record
Jul 2012 ... 5th hottest July on record
Aug 2011 - Jul 2012 Warmest 12 month period on record (+6.0C)
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| Winnipeg annual temperature anomalies 1872-2012 |
Not surprisingly, 2012 is also on pace to be one of Winnipeg's warmest years on record. As of the end of July 2012, the year to date average in Winnipeg was +4.0C, tied with 1987 as the warmest annual average through the end of July. 1987 is Winnipeg's warmest calendar year on record at 5.4C. The normal annual average over the 20th century in Winnipeg has been +2.5C. This graph, courtesy of A Weather Moment, nicely displays the annual averages for Winnipeg since 1872 in terms of temperature anomalies from normal. The chart clearly shows how 2012 (dark red) is on pace to be one of the city's warmest years on record (the top 5 years being 1987, 1931, 1878, 1998 and most recently 2006) barring any shifts to significantly colder weather between now and December. However, with Arctic sea ice approaching a record minimum, and an El Nino likely in place for this winter, the odds of significantly colder weather in the next few months appear to be slim at this point.
It has been a crazy year.. thanks for the roundup Rob, very interesting.
ReplyDeleteThe March 19, 2012 heavy thunderstorm will forever be engraved in my mind; and was my personal highlight. That week of thunderstorms and heat and humidity was something most of us could only dream of in Winnipeg in March, and for it to actually happen is mind-boggling.
Yeah, March was definitely one of those off the chart months. Will be intertesting to see how the rest of the year plays out, especially with record low Arctic sea ice and a developing El Nino.
ReplyDeleteA couple areas of showers to the north of Winnipeg heading south. One area coming off the south end of Lake Winnipeg is going through Selkirk right now and will likely clip northeast Winnipeg over the next half hour. Another batch of showers (with some embedded thunderstorms) is over Highway 6 over the Ashern and Eriksdale areas heading south, likely affecting areas mainly west of Winnipeg by midday or so if it holds together.
ReplyDeleteYeah I would definitely say that March 19 is the weather story of the year, Winnipegs earliest thunderstorm ever according to daily weather observations since 1953. And a decent storm at that, followed by another decent one on the overnight of the 27th
ReplyDeleteMarch 19
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VcDxD3ZV7w
March 27
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjYE2FRC8PU
Question for Rob,
ReplyDeleteHow unusual is it to have one of these "back door" cold fronts occur in the Winnipeg region?
Also Rob if last year was one of the warmest winters on record La Nina or not will we enjoy warmer and snowier with an El Nino set to start.
ReplyDeleteRe: Back door cold fronts
ReplyDeleteNot unusual at all.. happens from time to time, especially when you have a high over northern Manitoba or NW Ontario pushing cooler air south from the north or northeast.
As far as this upcoming winter is concerned, an El Nino would tend to favour warmer and drier conditions over southern MB, depending on the strength of El Nino. Still too early to say however..
Hot spot today will be over southern BC interior again.. Lytton and Ashcroft could hit 40C today! (they were 38C yesterday)
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteWhat could be the potential outcome for our weather given the record low arctic ice and a developing El Nino?
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeletequestion....
With warmer summer temperatures returning next week to the area with temps possibly reaching the thirties by midweek, i've noticed that there's a chance of unsettled weather at the end of the week, could there be a severe weather threat given the warmer temps next week?
A record low Arctic ice cover would tend to favour a warmer fall over us with a delayed onset of winter. If we look back at 2007 (last record low year for Arctic ice), we were mild and snowfree until the end of November, then generally seasonable the rest of the winter with normal snowfall and variable temperatures, with a slow start to spring. That winter however was a La Nina winter, so that may have kept things colder and snowier than it could have been. If we indeed get an El Nino this winter, coming off a record low Artic ice pack, it could mean a warm fall, a delayed start to winter, a short and mild winter with less snow, and an early spring.
ReplyDeleteThat's in theory. As we all know, Mother Nature can often suprise us with things we weren't expecting that can quickly derail a reasonable forecast. Despite all the signals that say we *should* be milder this winter, you only need one big snowstorm early in November to quickly cover the ground here, and keep things colder than you were expecting. Or El Nino may not be as strong, which would limit its effects mainly to the West Coast, with colder temperatures here. So there are mainly variables that can derail a reasonable forecast, even with the best guidance and expertise available. That's why I shy away from giving long range forecasts.. still too many unknowns with limited success rate.
Shower activity to our west generating a couple lightning strikes west of Starbuck.
ReplyDeleteNo rain at all in South St. Vital!
ReplyDeleteI'm saying 25C and sunny for Sunday!
ReplyDelete40.2C at Lytton BC this hour.. I believe that's the hottest temperature recorded in Canada this year.
ReplyDeleteWow, brrr! Honestly could have worn gloves out there early this morning. Thank goodness things are getting back to the heat soon.
ReplyDeleteChilliest morning of the season so far with a low of +4.5C at YWG airport. Coolest temperatures were over southeast MB this morning with +3C in Steinbach, and +1C in the Falcon Lake/Elma/Rennie areas according to Weatherbug sites. Probably a touch of frost at those temperatures. Just a teaser though as we get into some warmer weather the next few days..
ReplyDeleteThe southeast had low overnight temps at lower elevations (saw a 0.9 C at Hadashville), but go up on a little granite ridge and the overnight low barely went below 10 C (9.8 C at Green Lake in the Whiteshell).
ReplyDeleteRob 30, 31C for some SE Mb on Tuesday Is that hopeful or wishful?
ReplyDeleteI think 30C is quite possible on Tuesday over southern MB, especially along and south of the TransCanada. 850 temps rise close to 20C in Winnipeg, and over 20C over SW MB. With enough sunshine and a bit of a light southwest flow, that should get us to the 30C mark.. possibly even 32C further south and west. NAM is advertising 31.5C for YWG on Tuesday, while GEM is a little more conservative at 29C. Overall, I think we're looking at another 30C day Tuesday, and probably Wednesday as well.
ReplyDeleteAmazing how far north thunderstorm activity is reaching today. Thunderstorms have been as far north as between Cambridge Bay and Resolute, Nunavut today.
ReplyDeleteNice stretch of weather coming up with sunshine and temperatures back to summertime values through Wednesday. Looks like we could be seeing some shower/thunderstorm activity Thursday into Thursday night as an upper trof pushes across southern Manitoba. GFS giving Winnipeg 50 mm of rain in showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday evening. GLBGEM hints at the same thing but not as aggressive. Be aware that SUNNY forecast for Thursday may not be so dry after all.
ReplyDeleteQuestion for the weather geeks here!
ReplyDeleteI did some research and could not find any 40C reading later than August 18 which is the date Lytton, BC recorded their 40.2C.
So was that the latest 40C+ day ever in Canada?
Morden recorded a high of 40.0°C on September 8, 1906, however I do not know if that is considered accurate or not. Here's the link to the observation:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=MAN&StationID=3625&dlyRange=1885-05-01|1971-07-31&Year=1906&Month=9&Day=01
Rob or someone else could probably confirm it or not.
Hey Guys, I heard that there will be a nice chance for storms on Thursday in Manitoba. Just Curious is it possible that Grand Forks could see something at all from Thursday through until Sunday? Any Severe Weather Threats? Let me know if you can as I will be going down there for the weekend.
ReplyDeleteMike.. Models still hinting at an upper trof moving across southern MB Thursday into Thursday night, but still a lot of uncertainty as to how active it will be. Right now, looks like scattered showers and possible thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening, but not everyone will see something.
ReplyDeleteGFS brings another threat of showers/tstorms across ND/southern MB Saturday into Saturday night.. but a little too far out to be be more specific at this point.
Interesting about the last 40C reading in Canada. That Morden value seems valid, as Winnipeg hit 37C on Sep 7th 1906, and there were widespread temps in the mid to upper 30s during Sept 7-9 1906. If I find a later 40C reading, I'll let you know.
ReplyDeleteA low of 15°C this morning, now that's more like it. Didn't have the urge to wear a sweater early this morning. Better enjoy this week while it lasts.
ReplyDeleteWarmest spots today in southern MB will be over southern RRV from Morden to Emerson which will benefitting most from warmest air aloft (20c at 850 mb) plus westerly downslope from Pembina escarpment. Highs in the low 30s likely there today. Winnipeg will struggle to hit 30 today as warmest air aloft pinches south this afternoon and our winds veer ino the northwest tapping some slightly cooler air through the Interlake. Still a beauty day though.
ReplyDelete32C right now in Gretna and Emerson... it's pretty dry as well with a RH of 24 and 23% respectively.
ReplyDeleteWe may never know if it got to 30°C for Winnipeg or not... considering the observations are not updating.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone figure this out?
ReplyDeleteIsland Lake rocketed from 17 to 23 C this morning at 8 am, then went back down to 19 C at 10am and still hasn't reached this morning's high.
Gimli Harbour went to 30C at 11am with a light SSW wind, then dropped to 22 C an hour later with a light ESE wind, which makes sense (the drop, but not the 30C). However Gimli Industrial Park (inland) was only 22 C at 11am and has still only reached 24 C.
Wow not only Winnipeg is lacking the current conditions; many other communities in Canada are experiencing the same thing today. Halifax, Quebec City, Yellowknife and others to name a few. Is this a new way to save money? lol
ReplyDeleteJust check Accuweather. They've got it all! Winnipeg is 29C. LOL Not sure where they get that because even the Forks is only 27. Oh, and watch out for that thundershower at 5 pm. Accuweather, "the World's Weather Authority".
ReplyDelete20% RH in Emerson...
ReplyDeleteIf you are wondering, the Winnipeg auto station XWG is only 26 C.
ReplyDeleteXWG SA 1800 AUTO8 M M M 087/26/13/2610/M/ 3002 50MM=
At least 10-15 of all weather stations are down.
ReplyDeleteEC must be doing some kind of update. It will be ridiculous if they are not.
10-15%*
ReplyDeleteMight be a network communication problem.. hopefully the data is still there and not lost.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Winnipeg had a high of 28-29C based on surrounding Weatherbug sites. I had a high of 29.9C at my place, but my station tends to read 1-1.5C too high on sunny days.
33C in Emerson and Gretna today.
ReplyDeletePlaces in Saskatchewan were even warmer... 36C in Coronach.
Not bad for late-August.
Clearly something is wrong with the dewpoint sensor in Coronach, Saskatchewan. It's the inverse of the problem Winnipeg had a few weeks ago. The station is recording a dewpoint of -34°C, giving a relative humidity of 1% in Coronach at the moment.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing that missing station data wasn't the only problem today. Lots of strange readings indicate a bigger issue. Unfortunately with the cut in quality control, this data may find it's way into the climate record.
ReplyDeleteOfficial high of 29.2c today at YWG airport. 30c readings generally south and west of a Carman to Morris line. Better chance of YWG hitting 30C Wednesday as 850 temps climb up to 20c by the end of the day with a return southerly flow.
ReplyDeleteGarth.. That Gimli harbour reading does look suspicious. We've also been getting some suspicious obs from Victoria Beach going up over 30c at times when everyone else is in the 20s. I know it's been warm, but I don't think the south basin of Lake Winnipeg is at 30c water temperature!!
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteCould strong inversions over Lake Winnipeg, mixing down in the morning with the initiation of the lake breeze, result in these very local (and temporary) high morning temps near the shoreline? If it's happening at both Gimli and Victoria Beach, maybe there's actually something interesting going on here. Maybe not.
I know by definition that 'cooler, more dense' air would come off the lake to replace a rising thermal, however maybe that subsiding air above the lake has also mixed down unusually warm air from aloft which finds it's way into the lake breeze at times.
ReplyDeleteGarth... I see what you're getting at.. but I think the cooler marine layer would deflect that warm air from surfacing, keeping lakeside stations closer to the lake temperature. Also, Victoria beach has been getting these high temperatures in the afternoon or early evening, even with a light onshore breeze.. so I remain skeptical about these warm lakeside temperature readings when winds are off the lake.
ReplyDelete