Saturday, July 21, 2012

Summer pattern continues..

Temperature graph for Winnipeg
over the past 12 months showing
persistent warmth since last summer.
The past 12 months have been the
warmest 12 month period in
Winnipeg history.
The warm and generally dry weather pattern of the past month continues this week, with temperatures in the upper 20s under mostly fair conditions.  Thunderstorm potential will be limited this week, with a slight chance of storms overnight into Sunday morning over the RRV, and a better chance later in the week in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame.  Precipitation this July has varied greatly across the Red River valley with some localities receiving fairly generous rainfall amounts of 30-50 mm or more this month, while other places have been quite dry, including much of Winnipeg (only 15 mm so far this month at YWG airport)  Conditions have been drier south of the border with drought conditions starting to spread northward across much of North Dakota and Minnesota from the central plains.  Temperatures in Winnipeg so far this month are averaging some 2-3C above normal for July, with a mean temperature so far this month of 22.2C (normal = 19.5C) This is on pace for a top 10 ten warmest July based on current trends, and would also be a staggering 13th consecutive month with monthly temperatures that have averaged above normal in Winnipeg. The 12 month period of July 2011-June 2012 is the warmest 12 month period on record in Winnipeg at 5.9C, beating the previous warmest 12 month period of Dec 1877-Nov 1878 (5.6C)  Weather records in the city began 140 years ago in 1872.

UPDATE:  With an average of +6.0C, Aug 2011 - Jul 2012 is now the warmest 12 month period on record in Winnipeg. That 's almost 3.5C above the normal annual average of +2.6C.  This has also been the warmest 12 month period across most of the United States.

119 comments:

  1. Nice line of storms entering Manitoba from Saskatchewan. NWS Grand Forks seems to think the convection will persist through the early morning. Could be some decent activity in the RRV.

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  2. And the governments of Canada and the US continue to pretend that there is no climate change and all that matters is economic growth. The system is broken and no one seems willing to fix it.

    The world our grandchildren will live in will be very different that the one we knew and I expect a lot worse.

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  3. Very dark clouds to the west at the moment. Not much on radar so far, but maybe there will be in the next update.

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  4. Got a brief downpour in South end, nothing major, maybe half a mm.

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  5. The isolated showers that just popped up south of the city mean that the cold front has moved through a bit sooner than expected?

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  6. Anyone else see what the forecasters are seeing for tomorrow over western MB? Some showers and chance of thundershowers, all the way from Swan River to the US border? The models and even SCRIBE (uncorrected) have it mainly sunny with no hint of precip.

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  7. Hmm. The CBC Futurecast also has some showers tomorrow on that west side. Maybe I'm just a little dim.

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  8. Get with it Garth! Showers west side! ;)

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  9. Hey Adam, I still don't see it on any of the models! Maybe my glasses need cleaning.

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  10. I don't see it neither Garth, it's not just you.

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  11. @ Rob, or anyone else who may know:

    Did Environment Canada stop rating the severity (on the Fujita scale) of tornadoes in the Prairies? If yes, why? Funding?

    So far this year, I haven't seen any fujita scale ratings of tornadoes in the Prairies, despite the 20+ that have touched down in Sask. The only area that I know still does rate them is in Ontario and Qu├ębec.

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  12. Multiple boundaries with lots of cumulus dropping south, as energy rotates around the upper trough. Will have to watch for a small chance of something popping off the lakes.

    Daniel

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  13. Question for Rob,

    Just to clarify, does the 5.9C refer to the mean temperature above the normal mean temperature for Winnipeg over the last 12 months?

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  14. Rob,

    Wouldn't the May we had (mean 12.2C) actually be considered above average when considering 1981-2010 averages which has May at 11.4C due the the trend of cooler springs? Therefore this July could make it 13 consecutive months of above average temps with a possible 12 month mean of 6.0+C if the weather holds up.

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  15. Anonymous.. The 5.9c refers to the actual monthly average over that 12 month period. Normally, our annual average is around +4.0c

    As far as rating tornadoes, I'm assuming most of those tornadoes in SK will be getting F0 ratings since they didn't hit anything, staying over open fields. A tornado can only be rated if it causes some sort of damage ( to structures or trees) that can be correlated to wind speed and thus tornado strength. If there's no damage reported, then there's likely no assessment done.

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  16. Environment Canada lists YWGs annual average at 2.6C. 4.0C would be closer to The Forks annual average

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  17. @Anon, by annual average Rob meant the 12 month-period from June to June, rather than the January to December period.

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  18. Rob,

    Will this be the first July in history that Winnipeg fails to record a single digit low?

    I looked at other hot Julys - 2011, 2007, 2006, 1988 - and could not find any that did not record 9.9 C or less at least once each.

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  19. But in a consecutive 12 month period inclusive it would include all 12 months and if you were to rearrange all of those months it would go from January to December. Unless Rob is including June twice I though he would actually be going from June 1 2011 to May 31, 2012.

    JJASONDJFMAM

    Rearranged as

    JFMAMJJASOND

    Would still include means of all 12 months and thus still be 2.6 unless i am missing something here.

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  20. Yes, the mean is 2.6, but instead Winnipeg stood out at 5.9 for the 2011-2012 period, which incidentally is the typical mean for Fargo, North Dakota. Winnipeg the new Fargo, Fargo the new Minneapolis, I wonder where this will all end up?:)

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  21. 1901, '30, '35, '43, '57, '66 and '89 all did not see the temperature dip below 10°C in July, Andy.

    The warmest minimum for the month of July was in 1989, with a monthly minimum of just 12.7°C.

    Assuming we do not go below 11.4°C in the next week, the monthly minimum of 11.4°C for July 2012 would be the 4th warmest monthly minimum on record for the month.

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  22. Precipitation potential for Wednesday/ Thursday looking poor. As we have seen the last two summers here, a strong cold low will move up towards central Saskatchewan, but with no linkage to the plains LLJ. Main moisture transport at 850 hPa on Tuesday nite will be focused over central Minnesota before veering off towards the Great Lakes.

    Deepest moisture occludes to the south east along with nose of LLJ. Models paint MCS forming along the N Dakota/ S Dakota border Tuesday nite and another affecting SW Ontario Thursday nite.

    Thats not to say it won't get warm and muggy here, we will have to hope for some surface based convection to fire along the trough that will pass thru mid-afternoon (NAM shows around 3 PM). We'll have to get enough clearing of debris cloud - may still be tough to break cap with little dynamic support.

    Next shot at rain will be on Thursday morning, as upper low weakens and slumps SE. Cold pool will be around before noon giving a chance for showers before they move off into NW Ontario and Minnesota by afternoon.

    Daniel

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  23. Edit..

    The MCS potential for SW Ontario will be on Wednesday nite to early Thursday.

    Trough will come thru Winnipeg on Wednesday afternoon.

    Daniel

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  24. GEM Regional, plus CBC and CTV indicate good thundershowers coming through YWG just after midnight. NAM has nothing. RAP is more in line with GEM REG, but a bit further south. GFS even further south in central ND.

    Let the games begin.

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  25. I stand corrected.. The 12 month warmest period is from July 2011-June 2012 at 5.9c.. And, yes, the normal annual average for YWG airport is 2.6c based on 1971-2000 normals.

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  26. Garth..

    From my experience this spring and summer, NAM handles split patterns like these better than RGEM. Forcing from the upper low will remain to our northwest. Nose of LLJ quickly veers from southern N Dakota over towards the Great Lakes in response to shortwave over the northern plains that moves east. In past cases such as these, we are generally left with light or weakening showers in between. For that reason my money is on the NAM solution. It also has support from 18Z HRRR which shows split evolving.

    Tomorrow could be interesting with NAM still showing trough passage at around 3 PM. It will arc from NW to SE all the way to the Twin Cities - which is unusual. Models still show lots of debris cloud to contend with however.

    Upper low slumps southeast overnite Wednesday into Thursday. Unfavorable timing for cold pool to be overhead, but will have to hope for deformation rain band and showers on the back side of the departing low Thursday morning.

    Daniel

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  27. Some elevated convection starting to form as far north as southern RRV.. in an area of moisture transport ahead of the upper low. Best chance for any stronger convection will be across southern RRV and SE Manitoba early on this evening. After 10 PM still expect to see a weakening of convection north of the border as LLJ focuses south and splits off from upper low. New cells will start propagating down into the moisture feed from the central plains.

    Daniel

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  28. Yet more tornadoes in Saskatchewan today. It's incredible how every single setup never ceases to amaze over there. Now, about here in Manitoba...

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  29. Are we actully going to get some rain over the next 24 hours or is it going to dry up as it approaches?

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  30. Good call Daniel. The NAM and GFS were best for last night.

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  31. LOL. Even the 06Z REG GEM had those thundershowers over us before 09Z! Pretty stubborn!

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  32. How on earth did Steinbach just get 61mm of rain?!

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  33. Check this out. Literally one small isolated spot of heavy rain right over Steinback.
    http://dd.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/24_HR_ACCUM/GIF/XWL/201207251320_XWL_24_HR_ACCUM_MM.gif

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  34. Thanks Garth, that was a huge MCS covering nearly half of Minnesota at one point. Odd isolated cell over Steinbach..

    Line of convection going in the interlake along trough, where there is better support from upper low.

    We'll have to see if any convection can get going behind the trough, before the main push of drier occurs. Cumulus fields forming along the west shore of L Manitoba and the Pembina escarpment.

    Daniel

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  35. Well it sure turned into a much nicer day than expected.

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  36. Great view of that storm off to the NW of the city. Doesn't appear to be heading here, but looks ominous.

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  37. Starting to look like another non-event for us, unless something bursts up out of nowhere. 'Shocking'.

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  38. Wow another 30C day!

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  39. I don't care if we get a thunderstorm, but sure would be nice to get some rain. My grass crunches it's so dry. Need a nice steady dose of rain for a day.

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  40. Rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  41. The east seems to have finally got a lot of rain. Looks like we are the only ones now to not get a decent rain this month.

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  42. Airport reporting a temperature of 8C at 6am. There is no way it was that low within the city. My temp reading from my Nissan said 14C. My car reading can be too generous at times with the temperature registering 2C above what it actually is, so I'd say it was more like 12 within the city.

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  43. Got down to 10.1°C at my place, south end. Looks like a general 10 to 11°C in the city, and of course the airport anomaly of 8°C!

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  44. I may be failing to understand this, so pardon if I am, but could someone tell me what variance in degrees (i.e. +/- 15 degrees) in upper air temperature provides that "cap" the we so often hear about that prevents storms from forming. Is upper air typically warmer than surface temps, or as long as it's in the general vicinity of each other (i.e. surface temps at 30 degrees and upper air at 25 degrees) that's enough to cap things and prevent the cap to burst open. I ask because there's been several times where CAPE values, LI's, Shear, etc. are all ripe, but nothing has happened because of the warm air aloft, creating cap. Again, if I'm off on understanding this, a little education would be great if you could spare it.

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  45. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  46. Im Back from Albert Beach, we had a good couple rounds of thunderstorms but we missed the severe storms During Wednesday Evening always a disappointment even at the beach. Had a good time and am glad to be back with the gang.

    Anyways I have been talking with jaredmysko on twitter and he has been mentioning that southern manitoba could get some severe weather on Sunday and on wednesday. Some Decent EHI values have shown up on the latest model runs of the NAM right over Winnipeg and areas West, along with some fairly high CAPE Values. Tornado Potential is possible with this combination. Just hoping that the Cap is not too strong on those days....

    What do you think Rob?

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  47. Another 30C + day wow!

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  48. Some hints out in model land of a big cool down late next week. It could change, but gfs and euro both hint at it right now. Hopefully it does't last too long...

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  49. So, good chance for supercells today, possibly some tornadic. Could be interesting.

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  50. Severe thunderstorm watch for Winnipeg!

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  51. I've never heard so many people complain about the sunshine and want rain. Seems to be the conversation everywhere I visit these days.

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  52. Some warnings out for the cells already initiated.

    I presume we may be looking at a MCS situation later today?

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  53. July this year has been warmer than last year!

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  54. 34 now, and the temperature is still rising at my station...

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  55. and 40C humidex!

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  56. Hottest day of the year 34.7C!

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  57. What is the main risks for winnipeg this evening.. i notice those storms nearing winnipeg look pretty intense on rader and i dont think there gonna weaken..Are we talking tornados and straight line winds?

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  58. Quite the gust front over Lake Manitoba. Radar showing about 60kt winds.

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  59. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out early on this evening, but is not the main threat. There are no Tornado warnings out currently.. those cells are producing strong straight line winds, hail, and heavy rain.

    Towering cumulus going up right over the city.. activity off to our west looks to be building south..

    Daniel

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  60. We're now under a severe thunderstorm warning. Dark clouds off to the NW.

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  61. Gust front now more visible, but just barely.

    One thing to note is that the warning has a LOT of lead time. Nice to see, but if the Perimeter Shield strikes again...

    Either way, better safe than sorry.

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  62. Storm is still well to our northwest; ec must be quite confident it will the city then if it already has a warning. Wow, finally some action around here... and some rain!

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  63. Broken line of cells from Gimli SW thru Carberry.. one thing of note is a boundary moving north which is about to collide with that line. We'll see if it has any effect..

    Daniel

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  64. Another thing to note Anonymous is that the cell will attenuate the radar site for a bit, giving weaker returns, which might also be the reason why EC is playing it on the cautious side.

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  65. What type of effect are you reffering to? will it strengthen the storms or weaken them

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  66. Neither, it's just an illusion on radar. Because most of the energy will be absorbed by the cell, the energy from the beam becomes weaker outside of the general area of the storm, so what may seem like a weaker storm (say for example one 100 KM away) when another cell is right over the radar site may actually be stronger than it appears.

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  67. Example of it happening right now with the latest image. The 5:50 image shows that Gimli cell just about as intended, and the 6:00 image shows it much weaker.

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  68. Use the GRLEvel3 US radar data from here:

    http://www.umanitoba.ca/faculties/environment/envirogeog/weather/GRLevel3.html

    The attenuation issue is really bad with Woodlands radar

    Daniel

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  69. undulating cloud structures over the city with greenish cast to the sky..

    Daniel

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  70. Almost out of the attenuation issue, but the back edge of the storm is still over XWL. Take it with a really small grain of salt.

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  71. Looked almost like asperatus clouds.. shelf cloud now approaching indicating strong gust front

    Daniel

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  72. Starting to come in, winds picking up.

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  73. Grab your dis gon b gud .gifs everyone, we're getting a real storm for once!

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  74. Looks legit for all the Peggers. Have fun!

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  75. Thanks Derek, we'll have fun with our field evening!

    Also, I'm recording a timelapse of the storm.

    Gusts still coming in, almost on the edge of the rain.

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  76. Strongest part of the line will pass just SW of the city

    Daniel

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  77. Tornado watch out for areas to the SE of the city, including Steinbach.

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  78. Wow storm is splitting. I mean this is better than nothing, but that would happen..

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  79. Clouds moving in all directions above our house, south central Wpg. Saw what I thought were developing mamatus at 6:37.

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  80. heavy rain here in Westwood. 9 degree temp drop at the airport in 9 minutes. Chris in Westwood.

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  81. line splitting.. some central parts of city may not get much rain

    Daniel

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  82. Yes, highest tops are splitting around Winnipeg.

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  83. Not sure about it exactly, but I MAY have seen a possible funnel. Couldn't tell exactly, I'll need to look at the timelapse to determine that. Could've just been a lowering in the cloudbase though.

    Starting to get into the rain part.

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  84. Uh-oh, I see hooking along the strongest part of the storm off to the SW of the city.

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  85. That SW cell showing some interesting characteristics on radar..

    Daniel

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  86. Upon closer inspection, doesn't appear to be hooking as much as on EC's site. Here's Weather Underground's site with it centered: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.267&noclutter=0&ID=XWL&type=C0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.267&centerx=239&centery=-70&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

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  87. Heavy rain already. 10 mm at Rob's station so far.

    Flash flooding definitely likely.

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  88. extreme wind gusts over central Winnipeg.. torrential rain

    Daniel

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  89. Letting up in St. James, still thunder and light rain.

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  90. Calm already in st. james. Had some hail, torrential rain, strong wind.

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  91. I'm in the north west part of the city. ( maples area) and all we got was some rain, strong wind gusts and the ocasional lightning strike.. but now its done!.. Not nearly as bad as I thought it would have been.

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  92. Winds were incredible in south St. Vital. Worst windstorm I have seen in years.

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  93. I'd definitely rate this one a 9. Did not disappoint much, and gave us some much needed rain.

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  94. Worst part of line thru the SW parts of the city and north towards Selkirk. No hail in central Winnipeg and about 15-20 mm rain max

    Daniel

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  95. just spitting now east of the city in Oakbank. Seems like the storm split in our area. My gauge only reading 4-5 mm :(

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  96. Wow! Winds seemed sustained at a high speed for a few minutes (7:05pm), with even higher gusts (90-100?km/h) Small hail as well (south-central city).

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  97. It looked promising but turned out to be almost a non-event in the Southdale-Island Lake area. Strongest winds gusts maybe 60 km/h, saw a few pea sized hail stones. Only 4 or 5 mm rain and the streets are almost dry now, very disappointing.

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  98. CYWG 300000Z 24020G32KT 1/4SM R36/3000VP6000FT/D TSRA VV010 19/18 A2978 RMK RA8 HAIL DIAM 100MM SLP087

    100mm hail? probably a typo - maybe 10mm hail diameter.

    Chris Westwood

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  99. Re. what I thought was a funnel:

    After making the timelapse into a movie, I didn't see any rotation, so it was just a lowering in the cloudbase after all.

    Good thing I didn't phone it in. Doesn't appear anyone else saw any signs of rotation either.

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  100. Normal shelf cloud rotation, yes. No organized rotation otherwise though.

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  101. Looking a little scary down between Steinbach and Sprague. Maybe some rotation.

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  102. Was this a Tornado and why wasn't include in the watches and warnings.
    Major damage in Ponemah, near Winnipeg beach. Dtr reports Power out Huge trees over Power lines cottages and cars Roads impassable outbound. Those on site claim damage must be a Tornado.
    FP reportsWinnipeg Beach also severely hit 3K north.
    Don

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  103. It wasn't included? When I checked in the early afternoon all of southern MB except the far SW corner had watches out.

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  104. @Don,

    All indications point towards straight-line winds causing the damage. You do -not- need a tornado for significant damage to occur from winds. Odds are that many places north of the city saw straight-line winds between 100-150km/h; more than enough to flatten structures.

    Many, many people often jump straight to tornado whenever there's wind damage from thunderstorms; it's relatively understandable, considering how many people don't even know that straight-line (or "plow") winds exist.

    Anyways, with today's setup, storms quickly developed into a organized line with strong linear forcing supplied by the cold front and strong winds aloft helping storm development. Combine that with the relatively pitiful surface inflow winds and it makes tornadoes/funnels a real long-shot. Wouldn't be surprised if there are plenty of people who saw scud today and mistook it for a funnel cloud; there was fantastic lift with really low-level clouds along the leading edge of the whole system today.

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  105. That's probably what I saw earlier Brad. Easy to confuse a funnel for something else when it isn't even a quarter of the way down.

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  106. Just sayin, on every cook'n Sunday in July would be nice to get a warning to one of southern MBs major population centers, an area extremely vulnerable to straight line or Tornadic winds. St Clements,including Clandeboye Selkirk and Lockport IMO isn't enough.

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  107. The cell that passed SW of the city showed some flickers of getting better organized on radar before quickly collapsing (at least it appeared that way on GRLevel3 radar data). It was also on the end of the line where mesosscale processes can sometimes favor tornado formation.

    I would really be interested in seeing a time lapse or pictures of the undulating altostratus-type clouds just ahead of the gust front and shelf cloud. It appeared to be the proposed asperatus type with some mammatus embedded. Based on simulations, asperauts is apparently formed under similar conditions as the latter, but wind shears them into wave form. Maybe the shearing process was only partially complete explaining the presence of both. Any thoughts?

    Daniel

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  108. Don,

    Read this
    http://dd.weatheroffice.gc.ca/bulletins/alphanumeric/20120729/WW/CWWG/23/WWCN11_CWWG_292302___81737

    There was a watch out all afternoon, elevated to a warning specifically for the Ponemah area you are talking about.

    R.M. OF ST. ANDREWS INCLUDING PONEMAH WHYTEWOLD AND MATLOCK

    So what's the problem? Or was the warning issued too late?

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  109. @Garth:

    Good link. The warnings had over 30 minutes of lead time for most areas hit by the storms. EC did a good job of agressively issuing the warnings well ahead of the line.

    Winnipeg had over an hour of lead time.

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  110. @Daniel

    I agree, time-lapse images would be helpful for me at this point too. I couldn't tell if they were just forming or dissipating but the pattern, though weak, looked to be mammatus. As they moved to the southeast, some appeared to elongate and have slow clockwise rotation as they went overhead, but without the other characteristics of a funnel.

    I wish I had the experience of a trained spotter to provide you with more information. However, the relation you make of
    mammatus to asparatus pre-shear, and seen before the gust front, is an interesting connection. Thanks for your informative posts, Daniel (& Rob and others, of course). Always something to learn around here:)

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  111. Question:

    Was this a derecho event, albiet a short one?

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  112. Thanks Garth n Brad. Warning issued at 602 and ended at 622 on next Bulletin Not much time

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  113. Yesterday - 35.4 C official high. Hottest day of the year.

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  114. Is this part of the Woodlands Radar Problem?
    Residents at Dunnottar (Matlock/Whytewold/Ponemah) checked for weather WARNINGS at 6:25 and text at 6:30pm as weird clouds closing in...Two apps on cell did not warn. Storm 8 to 10 minutes later.
    Don

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  115. @Anon

    The warning for that specific area ended at 6:21 pm (yes, too early), though a watch was still in place.

    Why was the warning ended so soon? I'd guess that the radar attenuation and some shadowing at 6:10 and 6:20 (there was another cell between the radar and that area) may have fooled a forecaster. The 6:30 and 6:40 images show the storm clearly again.

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  116. At 621PM Bulletin ended Warning for Dunnottar
    http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/CWWG/1207292321.wwcn11.html

    ..."SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ENDED FOR:
    R.M. OF COLDWELL INCLUDING LUNDAR AND CLARKLEIGH
    R.M. OF ARMSTRONG INCLUDING NARCISSE INWOOD AND FRASERWOOD
    R.M. OF ST. LAURENT INCLUDING ST. LAURENT AND OAK POINT
    R.M. OF ST. ANDREWS INCLUDING PONEMAH WHYTEWOLD AND MATLOCK "...
    ...

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  117. But in a consecutive 12 month period inclusive it would include all 12 months and if you were to rearrange all of those months it would go from January to December. Unless Rob is including June twice I though he would actually be going from June 1 2011 to May 31, 2012. JJASONDJFMAM Rearranged as JFMAMJJASOND Would still include means of all 12 months and thus still be 2.6 unless i am missing something here.

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