The hot July of 2012 will end with another round of hot and potentially stormy weather, as daytime highs rise into the low 30s once again this afternoon. This will mark the 14th day this month with highs of 30c or more at Winnipeg airport, the most since July 2006 which had 16 days. (record is 17 days of 30c or more in July 1936). July will end up with a monthly average just over 22c, over 2.5C above the normal July mean of 19.5C, and our 13th consecutive month that has averaged above normal. Today's hot weather will also lead to the potential for another round of
strong thunderstorms later today into this evening as a disturbance
tracks across southern Manitoba. The greatest threat will be over
southwest MB late today with storms possibly spreading into the Red
River valley this evening.
UPDATE: July 2012 ended with a monthly mean of 22.3C at YWG airport, 5th warmest July on record in Winnipeg since records began in 1872. It was the city's hottest July since 1936, our hottest July on record at 24.2C. It was also only 0.1C from being Winnipeg's second hottest July on record.
Top 5 warmest Julys in Winnipeg (since 1872)
1. 1936 .... 24.2C
2. 1935 .... 22.4C
1916 .... 22.4C
1914 .... 22.4C
5. 2012 .... 22.3C
July 2012 was also the hottest month on record in the contiguous United States, beating the former record holder of July 1936.
Forecast highs for today:
ReplyDeleteCBC Winnipeg: 30 C
GFS Model: 31.3 C
SCRIBE (uncorrected): 32 C
ECMWF model: 32 C
EC Nowcast: 32.3 C
CTV: 33 C
Environment Canada: 33 C
The Weather Network: 33 C
GEM Regional model: 33.3 C
NAM model: 33.4 C
GEM Global model: 34.7 C
RAP Model: approx 36 C
Many models have 3-hr intervals, so the 'high' is quite possibly even higher.
With that overcast cirrus layer coming our way, perhaps some of the forecasts are a little on the warm side.
Cap is holding quite strong so far today. Not over yet though, things not really supposed to get going until evening.
ReplyDeleteDynamics are very good. SBCAPE around 3,500...MLCAPE 2,500....bulk shear 40-50 kts....supercfell composite on the SPC Meso page up to 16 in far southern MB.
ReplyDeleteThings looking good in that regard. Cap is the big issue, as per usual.
Remember: cap + southern Manitoba = nothing 99% of the time :P
ReplyDeleteFYI I am at work at NWS Grand Forks this eve and spoke with SPC....yeah they are not too crazy right now about anything forming. Maybe with low level jet but that would be later overnight and more over se nd into nw mn... Now the further north you go into the interlake region...certainly could be another story.....
ReplyDeleteIntentional pun in the title of this blog post, Rob? "Cap off warm July". Nice touch!
ReplyDeleteToday was always a big if. Models were suggesting strong capping and in the end the cap won out. Interesting that the 4km WRF developed storms by 23z in the RRV while the RAP developed nothing. Always tough to overcome strong capping in Manitoba. We got a friendly reminder of that today.
Interested to see if any elevated convection develops tonight.
July 2012 ended with an average temperature of 22.3C at YWG airport, 2.8C above the normal of 19.5C, and the 5th warmest July in Winnipeg since 1872. It was our warmest July since 1936, Winipeg's hottest July on record. It was also our 12th driest July at 23.5 mm (normal July precip is 70.6 mm)
ReplyDeleteSome cells off to the NW of the city around Lake Manitoba are severe warned. Watch is out, but doesn't include the city.
ReplyDeleteCould be a repeat of 7/29...thunderstorm watch expanded to include the city and adjacent areas and the line of storms off near Woodlands warned.
ReplyDeleteGrains of salt time beginning! Storm starting to attenuate XWL.
ReplyDeleteThe city's now in the warning.
ReplyDeleteIs there any tornado threat with this storm heading towards winnipeg?
ReplyDeleteWouldn't think so, unlike 7/29, where some people thought there was one in the rural areas outside of the city. No evident rotation on radar, but do expect some gusty winds, nickel-size hail, and a soaking.
ReplyDeleteEC's site isn't grabbing the 7:10 image, head to Weather Underground for that. Keep in mind of the attenuation issue for the next little bit.
Thunder in St. James, some drops of rain.
ReplyDeleteRob's station picking up some rain now as well.
ReplyDeleteSome sprinkles over here as well.. but its right on my doorstep lol.. in a couple minutes im sure it will change lol.. I will post what happened here after, or during the storm.
ReplyDeleteThe Gorilla Wx station in Whyte Ridge now picking up rain too.
ReplyDeleteGust front coming in now in St. James.
ReplyDeleteHeaviest cells passing SW of city. Some development to the NE so far southern parts of city may get brushed. The remaining convection for the rest of the city looks like it is weakening.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Yep, looks like the mythical Perimeter Shield is attempting to strike again. Hey, at least we'll get some more rain from this.
ReplyDeleteVery little unfortunately
ReplyDeleteDaniel
brief strong downburst of winds in central parts of the city..
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Area of cold air moving in...Rob's station reporting a ~-5.5 C difference.
ReplyDeleteSecond wave approaching.. so much for using GRLevel3 lol. Best to use both that and weather underground radar data at the same time.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Well we had some strong gusts.. but not anywhere near 100 Klm.. Some heavy rain, but now it has slowed down.. But it looks like on rader another small band is moving towards winnipeg.. have to see what happens with that!
ReplyDeleteWeather Underground is a godsend when it comes to EC radar data. Only place with zoomable maps without sacrificing quality and base velocity data + different tilts.
ReplyDeleteAnybody know how much rain occurred in the Mcreary/Wilks area? Have a job scheduled there tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteAnd that's about it for the rain. Appears to be ~2 mm that we got.
ReplyDeleteSome strengthening of the line is happening further south though.
Cells weakened right over the city.. heavy returns north and south. Also missing a large rain shield affecting northern RRV.. just bizarre.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Daryl,
ReplyDeleteMcCreary had 3.3 mm today according to the Environment Canada auto station there (WOO - Wilson Creek).
Thanks Garth
ReplyDeleteHopefully we wont see a split of systems tomorrow like what the GEM is advertising with the new run.
ReplyDeleteHate it when that happens. Looked promising this morning then it had to change to reflect a split flow around us. Hopefully it'll change back!
ReplyDeleteGuys I have my thoughts on tomorrow's severe weather On my website.... www.mikesobs.blogspot.ca
ReplyDeleteNewest GEM backed off on the idea now :P Flip Flop
ReplyDeleteGreetings gang..
ReplyDeleteBack from holidays.. Been away for a couple of weeks, looks like I missed a nice storm last Sunday (peak gust 88 km/h at my site and 15 mm of rain in 15 minutes!)
Will try to get a new post on the upcoming system which looks like it could bring the most widespread and substantial rain over RRV/SE MB in a while.
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeleteQuestion....
Is there a severe weather potential for Winnipeg and Southern Manitoba with tomorrow system?
Tomorrow is looking fairly decent for severe thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba along with some decent heavy rains. The SPC has us in a slight risk area. What do you guys think?
ReplyDeleteGrand Forks has a good discussion on the convective potential over the next 24 to 36 hours.. Basically looks like elevated nocturnal activity overnight into the morning spreading into southern MB from the southwest, with additional storms firing up mainly over ND later Friday into Friday night ahead of the cold front. Severe potential for us will be contingent on how much sun we can get tomorrow afternoon to help elevate instability values ahead of the cold front.. but I think we may be too cloudy here for anything severe, with better severe potential south of the border.
ReplyDeleteHope you had a great holiday Rob, welcome back!
ReplyDeleteLatest rainfall estimates for Winnipeg through Saturday evening from the various models..
ReplyDeleteGEM .... 27 mm
GLB .... 20 mm
NAM .... 28 mm
GFS .... 23 mm
NAEFS ... 20 mm
Overall, models are pretty consistent that Winnipeg will see about 20-30 mm over the next 48 hours.. Of course, much of it is convectively driven, which means an increased potential for large errors in precip estimates depending on where and when convection fires up. But at this point, most models are agreeing that Winnipeg airport may be seeing its first 10+ mm rainfall since mid June.
Last night's NAEFS ensemble for Winnipeg came in even wetter... now showing an ensemble average of about 35 mm for Winnipeg, up from 20 mm in yesterday's run. Euro has a whopping 70 mm for us (40 mm today and 30 mm Saturday) while 06z NAM has dropped to 18 mm through Saturday. GEM going with about 35 mm, but 30 mm of that is this afternoon into this evening. Again, highly variable precip forecasts based on convective processes which will largely be dependent on how much heating southern MB can get today (i.e. sunshine) Regardless, looks like showers and scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon over southern MB/ND, possibly severe mainly south of the border, evolving into a more widespread area of rain tonight, with areas of heavy rain likely.
ReplyDeleteWelcome back Rob. Weve been well served thanks to Garth and Connor n others for the reminders about that Undrgrnd Radar. May come in handy later today. Especially if I'm out in a boat ..tipping .. imaginary friends .
ReplyDeleteMatlock Don
Thanks Don.. Always good to see others providing input and commentary for everyone to share and benefit from. And yes, wunderground radar is awesome!
ReplyDelete