Friday, April 20, 2012
Some rain moving in Saturday mainly south and west of Winnipeg..
Sunny and dry conditions today will give way to increasing clouds tonight as the next weather system moves into southern Manitoba overnight. This system is expected to bring 5-15 mm of rain across southern MB Saturday, with the main swath expected from the Riding Mtns area through the western and southern RRV. Some light rain is possible in Winnipeg Saturday but most of the rain is expected to fall mainly west and south of the city. Drier and milder weather is forecast for Sunday into early next week, before the next chance of showers by Tuesday.
Posted by rob at 1:41 PM
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Very dry conditions today.. humidity down to 20% at my place this afternoon with dewpoints at -11C. A little on the cool side but very nice with that strong April sun.ReplyDelete
The dry air over the RRV and eastern MB will likely keep that rain shield from expanding too far east overnight or Saturday.. latest runs show little or no rain for Winnipeg with bulk of it staying west and south of the city.ReplyDelete
Some good rain showers south of the border this morning.ReplyDelete
Looks like a nice warm up the next few days, and I'm on holidays to enjoy, YA :)
Rain has been mixed with wet snow over Brandon and the Riding Mtn area this morning.. even some accumulations reported in the Wasagaming area.ReplyDelete
Snowing in Brandon this morning.ReplyDelete
SPECI CYBR 211306Z 06015KT 1SM -SN BKN008 OVC028 RMK SF5SC3=
METAR CYBR 211300Z 06014KT 3SM -SN SCT008 OVC030 M00/M00 A2985 RMK
SF4SC4 VIS VRB 2-4 SLP124=
Monday and Tuesday are becoming increasingly difficult to predict. Models seem in dissagreement about where the warm front will be placed.ReplyDelete
Monday, NAM puts the front right over us with cloudy skies and showers with highs 'only' in mid teens, while GEM puts the front way north of us with temperatures approaching 20.
Same situation Tuesday with NAM/GFS keeping us north of the real warmth, while GEM puts us in the twenties.
NAM advertises a high of 23C for Winnipeg on Monday ahead of developing low over southern Prairies, and then tracks low into ND on Tuesday, with highs in the mid teens as warm sector occludes south of us. GEM on the other hand has us only 17C on Monday with warmer temps of 24C on Tuesday with slower occlusion process on low. My gut feeling is that GEM is too cool on Monday and too warm on Tuesday, with highs of 20-21C likely Monday, and 18C or so Tuesday with a chance of showers as cooler flow works in.ReplyDelete
Problem is strengthening blocking pattern, as impressive vertically stacked low moves up the eastern US (with surface pressures as low as 988 MB). Models usually have difficulty handling the break-down of such patterns, as is the case here, with a western ridge trying to build in aloft.ReplyDelete
At first glance, the system looks unimpressive. Moisture return is in question, there is no LLJ, and the best dynamic forcing will be associated with a wave far to the north. There is also the question of frontal timing and position as Rob mentioned.. NAM slumps warm front south of us for Tuesday.
18Z NAM has backed off on the cooling and showers for Tuesday now, showing highs of 24C for Monday and 22C for Tuesday. As noted, models having difficulty with evolution of building ridge and surface features, but generally, looks like a couple of warm days coming up to start the week. Note that we've only had one 20C day so far this month, after three in March!ReplyDelete
10-20 cm of heavy wet snow in the Clear Lake area (Wasagaming) this morning.. most of it falling in 3-4 hours early this morning. All melted by this afternoon.ReplyDelete
Interesting system moving into Ontario and Quebec. The NAM has 20-30 mm of freezing rain over Quebec City area. Lucky they are warming up again soon after.ReplyDelete
Yeah, that storm for southern Ontario could be a doozy. Could see some significant snowfall accumulations in the higher elevation areas just north and west of Toronto. Even TO will see accumulating snow. Could see some issues with downed trees and power lines given the heavy wet snow on the now leaf-covered trees down there.ReplyDelete