Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Nice Thursday on tap before some unsettled weather Friday.. no major warmups through next week

After a few cold days to start out the week, the weather will be turning milder Thursday with plenty of sunshine and temperatures rebounding into the mid teens. The nice weather will be short lived however as a frontal system moves in from the southwest, bringing clouds and some showers for late Thursday night into Friday. At this point, rainfall amounts look minimal with this system.. perhaps 5-10 mm or so, although locally higher amounts are possible with some embedded convection early Friday. This system will gradually pull out Saturday, with a trailing cold front bringing a return to near or below normal temperatures over the weekend into next week.


  1. That sunny 19C forecast for Saturday from the GEM model looks awfully suspicious based on current guidance. Most guidance suggesting Winnipeg/RRV will get into a northerly flow of cooler air Saturday along with clouds and a chance of some rain. I guess sunny and 19C is possible if this system is slower to pull out and we stay in a bit of a warm sector longer, but I wouldn't count on it.

  2. Rob!
    Check out the SPC center website.
    They already have a moderate risk for DAY 3, which I have never seen in quite some time. Not good!

  3. Another complicated scenario unfolding, as blocking pattern is broken down by the large western trough. At least three upper lows or shortwaves are embedded.. one that is affecting Alberta and Montana, one which will affect us overnite, and the parent circulation over the SW United States.

    Convergence from nose of LLJ and left exit region of 500 hPa jet look to provide good lift, even with the deepest moisture and instability remaining well south. Models try to bring in precipitation by around midnight.. although inital push may end up just saturating dry low levels. 12Z American models were showing potential for 20-30 mm with warm advection and then wrap-around early Saturday.

    Impressive and broad LLJ redevelops later this weekend in response to main upper low moving out on to the plains. The focus will be well southeast of here, with several rounds of MCSs possibly affecting SW and Northern Ontario. Deformation zone associated with the parent low is also shown on most models as remaining along the N Dakota/ S Dakota border..


  4. Already a 60% probability issued by spc for TOMORROW in OK and KS. Some major cities such as Wichita and Oklahoma City are in that dangerous risk. Could be quite the nail biter day tomorrow down there.

  5. Are few rain showers today will be a "blip" on the radar compared what they could get tomorrow in the kansas and Oklahoma.

  6. Warmer you say.!
    We missed it by just thaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat much. Sunday the 106th Day of the year is the average date by which Red River Ice is off the river in Winnipeg (1860-1995)

  7. Well don't look now, but 18Z NAM is significantly further north with deformation zone on Sunday. It shows edge of precipitation band trying to move into southern RRV and SE Manitoba by 7 am. At the same time, shallow layer of cold air tries to sneak down the interlake.. we might be in for a bad surprise if northward trend continues.