Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Wet weather moving in over holiday weekend..

Beautiful summer like weather will continue through Friday in southern MB with sunshine and temperatures in the mid 20s. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the nice weather will hold through the upcoming May 24 holidays as an area of low pressure over the southwest US tracks into the Dakotas and across southern MB over the weekend. This system will spread an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms into southern MB on Saturday which will continue Saturday night into Sunday. Rainfall amounts from this system will depend on how much convection fires up Saturday but preliminary guidance indicates 15 to 25 mm of rain is possible over portions of southern MB and North Dakota over the weekend. Rain from this system will move out Sunday night with drier but cooler weather for holiday Monday.


  1. Flash flood watch posted for areas of North Dakota with 1- 2 inches of rain expected!!

  2. Well, that's a rip off.. clouds and some showers spreading in from the east over us today courtesy of moisture from that large upper low over the Ohio Valley.. GLB was hinting at that a couple of days ago (even threw in a 30% POP for today) and wouldn't you know, it was right. Our sunny streak ends at 5 days.. Friday looks decent before more rain for the weekend.. models have been trending wetter for us, with a 50% chance now of Winnipeg seeing at least 25 mm Saturday into Sunday.

  3. Rob Your Rain Poll..Excellent idea.
    Should I assume sun lovers May Long weekends start at noon Friday and end Monday at Sundown?

  4. NAM's been showing up to 75 mm of rain for parts of southern Manitoba this weekend. Yikes!

    Doubt it will come to be but, if any thunderstorm can develop, some local amounts of 2 inches wouldn't be a big surprise.

  5. Rob,
    No mention of thunderstorms in the forecast!!!

    I'm assuming there will a chance of thunder this weekend or the dynamics not there this time around??

  6. Daniel..

    Best dynamics and instability will be south of the border through the Dakotas over the weekend.. but we could see some elevated storms Saturday night moving up from the south. Best chance of any thunderstorms over southern MB though this weekend will be along the US border.

    By the way, Dave C. and Justin H. are currently on a storm chasing trip through the central US plains. You can follow their daily discussions on Dave And Justin's blog at..

  7. Thanks for the update Rob.
    I noticed that the dewpoints have really gone up in the past few days!
    Thought I noticed it this morning when walking around!!

  8. Looks like area's of far western north dakota into Montana are getting a really good soaking today.

  9. Jim..

    For the purpose of this poll, I'm referring from midnight tonight until midnight Sunday for this rain event.

  10. Just when I thought we are going to have a washout of a weekend here in Southern Manitoba...

    Just read some of the flash flood warnings in Texas tonight!

    6-8 inches of rain in some areas!

  11. Rob, which choice did you pick for the rain poll this weekend???

  12. I went with the majority.. 15-25 mm.

  13. Looking at the radar, it seems we will have at least the 15 -25 mm of rain for the poll question!

  14. Up to 16 mm at my place as of 7 pm.. with 20-25 mm just south of Winnipeg through Sanford/St Adolphe areas.. increasing to 25-35 mm from the St Agathe area to the US border. Heaviest rain has fallen over the southern and western Red River valley so far..

    Winnipeg likely looking at another 10-15 mm tonight so totals should be approaching 30 mm by the time it tapers off..

  15. West of the Red and south of the Assiniboine (and perimeter highway )appears to have rec'd additional 10 to 25mm much in the last hour or two.
    South of Portage la Prairie.
    St Claude 30mm
    Notre Dame 56
    St leon 47
    Glenboro 38
    Roland 35

  16. Thanks Jim..

    The Notre Dame and St Leon numbers look a bit on the high side compared to everyone else.. but I suppose there could be some locally enhanced totals in that area. Generally 25-40 mm over the western and southern RRV as of 8 pm, with 20-30 mm just south of Winnipeg. A soaking rain for much of the area.. and another setback for farmers who finally had some hope of seeding this past week...

  17. I see some thunderstorms breaking out in far southern North Dakota!!

    I assume those will fall apart with the setting sun???

  18. Just west of Oak Lake Pipestone area is also receiving significant rainfall in SK Maryfield 40mm,and in Redvers 28 , and Antler MB 33 on Hwy 2
    Great Angel Soup near there!!
    Agree that Note Dame looks odd. Winkler was reporting 40mm an hour before and then pulled a May 21, 2011 and disappeared.LOL

  19. Now that's what I call a WASHOUT!
    It basically rained non-stop from the time I woke up till the end of the day!!
    Now that's how you start a long weekend in Southern Manitoba!!

  20. A habit we're trying to break Dan'l...
    Appears on GFK Radar (also now on EC Woodlands near Morden that there is a narrow band of additional pcpn that ran up the Pembina escarpment and produced 10-20 mm of additional pcpn.

  21. The forecast does not call for any thunderstorms today, but I have a feeling as this afternoon wears on and some clearing takes place watch for scattered storms to form.

    Just like areas to our south!

  22. Rainfall amounts up to midnight last night..

    Winnipeg airport 19.5 mm
    Winnipeg forks 23.0 mm
    Carman 44.0 mm
    Manitou 41.0 mm
    Morris 40.2 mm
    Letellier 41.0 mm
    Starbuck 31.0 mm
    Elm Creek 38.8 mm
    Treherne 40.0 mm
    Glenboro 35.0 mm
    Gladstone 18.8 mm
    Portage 25.4 mm
    Winkler 44.8 mm
    Dugald 20.0 mm
    Letellier 41.0 mm
    Landmark 20.8 mm
    Marchand 14.1 mm
    Steinbach 17.4 mm
    Deloraine 17.2 mm
    Pierson 26.4 mm
    Wawanessa 34.6 mm
    Brandon 25.6 mm
    Sprague 16.4 mm
    Gretna 31.2 mm
    Carberry 23.0 mm
    Pilot Mound 18.0 mm
    Melita 21.4 mm
    Morden 42.2 mm
    Pinawa 16.4 mm
    McCreary 23.2 mm

    As you can see, about 20-25 mm in Winnipeg with 25-30 mm just south of the city. Highest totals of 40-45 mm recorded over southern and western RRV from south of Portage through Carman to Winkler/southern RRV. Generally about 20-30 mm over the Assiniboine river valley over western MB.

  23. Sounds like Dave and Justin are getting some good storms last few days!!!
    Just waiting for our storm season to kick in!

  24. Two on the ground in NE Minneapolis and St Paul now.

  25. Barring any additional precip in Winnipeg today, looks like 15-25 mm will be the correct answer to the poll question with 20 mm at the airport and 23 mm at the Forks.. although 25-35 mm was not too far away through the Starbuck, Sanford, St Adolphe areas..

  26. Yes, watching Kare11 news on TV shows one heck of a wind storm or tornado blew into Minneapolis!

  27. It is still early, but looks like a tornado went through North Minneapolis today with extensive damage!

  28. Devastating news in Joplin MO!
    This tornado season so far has been just so horrible for the folks south of the border!!

  29. A tragic event indeed in Joplin.. will likely be the highest death toll from a single tornado in the US since 1953..

    Dave and Justin were on that storm.. they didn't see the tornado but were just west of it. See Dave's post about it on their chase blog.. (click on my name)

  30. Their recap (especially), the decision not to pursue, and images today give a whole new meaning to Don't chase unless you're a professional.

  31. While most of the U.S plains remain on high alert for severe storms, we here are going to be stuck in a oool brezzy weather pattern.

  32. Another weekend coming and more great weather.
    Will we finally see some action here?

  33. Looks like we'll be back in an active pattern by next weekend or shortly after.

    Both the GFS and ECMWF bring a strong system into the region by early next week with southwest flow aloft continuing.

    Obviously it's a long ways off but models have verified well lately in longer range forecasting.

  34. What's happening to the temperature today???
    8 C as of 2:00 pm!
    I guess that high of 15 C was this morning!

  35. Secondary arctic front came thru with strongest push of cold air right down the RRV.. balmy highs of 3-5 C north of here. Clearing tries to work south as high pressure noses in. Low clouds up in the interlake look cellular and will likely break up after sunset. We will be right on the edge of midlevel clouds and warm advection off to our SW that may hold temps up tonite... otherwise we will drop below zero.

  36. The cloud cover we are seeing this morning, where is it coming from?