Scattered showers and thundershowers are expected to develop today across southern Manitoba as an unstable airmass settles over the area. Partly sunny skies this morning will give way to convective cloud development as temperatures climb into the mid teens by the noon hour, setting the stage for scattered showers and thundershowers this afternoon. Any thundershowers will be fairly weak due to a lack of strong dynamics today, however small hail and brief downpours are possible. Conditions are even favourable for some cold core funnel clouds to develop today (with or without a thundershower) however these will be isolated and should not have enough energy to reach the ground. Things will dissipate this evening as we lose daytime heating, leading to drier weather Sunday with no precipitation expected.. welcome news for the large outdoor events planned tomorrow (including U2 concert and Teddy Bear picnic)
The dry weather will be short lived however as a stronger storm system develops over the Northern high plains and into southern Manitoba by Monday. This will bring a more general rainfall across southern MB Monday into Tuesday, with 10-20 mm possible for Winnipeg and the RRV, and heavier amounts for 20-40 mm likely across southwest MB into the interlake areas. This, in combination with gusty north winds will bring additional high water and flooding concerns to the Lake Manitoba area, and will be yet another setback for area farmers who desperately need a prolonged stretch of dry and warm weather to accelerate seeding operations. Long range guidance is hinting at warmer weather moving in by the end of next week, that hopefully signals the start of a trend to more summerlike weather finally moving into southern MB.
Tornado warning in effect for Winnipeg as of 10:20am.ReplyDelete
Correction.. it's a tornado watch, not a warning. Big difference..
Keep in mind, this particular tornado watch is for the possible development of cold core funnels, one or two which MAY briefly drop to the ground as a weak tornado. (very low odds and impossible to warn) This is NOT an environment that is capable of producing long lived, long tracked destructive tornadoes from supercell thunderstorms. Given the recent events south of the border, I fear the general media and public may be overreacting to this tornado watch.
Yes its a watch. Somewhere between seeing the watch and typing the comment I inadvertantly typed warning instead of watch. Geez even with this post I had to retype it before posting as I kept substiting watch and warning. Too many W's. LOL
You're not alone.. many people (including the media) confuse watch statements with warnings.
A WATCH is issued as an alert or "heads up" that severe weather may develop over the next few hours. Watches appear in yellow on EC's Weatheroffice website. There is no immediate danger, but be aware of weather conditions and listen for updated weather statements. Typically severe weather watches are issued several hours in advance of the initiation of severe weather.
A WARNING is issued for severe weather that has developed or is imminent of developing. Take immediate action to protect life and property. Warnings appear in red on EC's website, and typically are issued with only a few minutes to 60 minutes lead time ahead of severe weather occurring (in terms of severe summer weather).
This important distinction between watches and warnings will become more important as we get into the severe summer weather season.
Speaking of confusing weather watches/warnings, it would be nice if the tornado watches could be clarified. Rather than having three watches (funnel cloud, landspout, and supercell) all listed as the same thing.ReplyDelete
The Winnipeg EC office has been trying hard to implement a "funnel cloud" watch of some sort to differentiate between the more dangerous supercell tornado situations and the cold core situations. However there has been reluctance in other regions of Canada to adopt this strategy. It is hoped that some sort of bulletin can be agreed on to clarify the difference in these two very different weather situations. Until then, the differentiation between these two types of tornado watches is described in the text of the bulletin to clarify the issue, rather than the actual title. But I agree, the title is what most people hear..
Storms showing up on the radar look like they're almost stationary...not good for the flood-ravaged areas.ReplyDelete
Actually turned out to be quite a decent day here, in south end at least.. =) Seem to dodge the storms, lots of sun, and Humid!ReplyDelete
Parents in Elie got a good thunderstorm just a few minutes ago!!ReplyDelete
Any funnel cloud reports as of yet today?ReplyDelete
According to EC, there have been a few reports of funnel clouds as well as pea to marble size hail over southern MB (not sure where).ReplyDelete
CWB Weatherbug network reports 14 mm of rain in Elie and 9 mm in Starbuck from those thunderstorm cells to our west.
Amazing to watch all that convection circling Winnipeg just to our north, west and south, with little movement into the city..ReplyDelete
Rain and small hail in west Charleswood finally.ReplyDelete
Only one or two drops of rain where I am in south end today.. :P Got lucky I guessReplyDelete
5 mm at my place in Charleswood in a downpour around 6 pm.. but very little in the south end of Winnipeg. Heavier amounts to our south and west with 18 mm in Elie and 22 mm in Starbuck according to CWB mesonet sites.ReplyDelete
Rob, Is there a possibility of damaging winds on Tuesday or Wednesday???ReplyDelete
I was hoping for some sun today but it looks like we might be socked in this low cloud all day!ReplyDelete
At least it's not raining today :-)
The SPC has put out a moderate risk for some portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota for tomorrow. They state that a strong tornado or two may happen.ReplyDelete
If you factor in SERN MB, we're under a slight risk.
It'll be interesting to see how things play out tomorrow. Initial batch of rain looks to move through in the morning and afternoon. If we can get some sun by mid afternoon, we could be in play for a few severe storms.ReplyDelete
Could still get some elevated activity regardless.
By the way, the PASPC is really talking up tomorrow's potential in southern Manitoba. They mention the triple point and low centre moving into southern Manitoba with supercells transitioning to an MCS. Tornadoes possible.ReplyDelete
Will be very interesting tomorrow to see how far the warm front will get to us!ReplyDelete
By the way I've got a new site where we can post pictures/videos and discuss about them. I also entered a couple useful links and will blog out of that site.
Lol, forgot to say click on my name and go to web site under contacts, this should bring you to my site.ReplyDelete
I have nothing but sunshine here in Altona now behind the decaying MCS.ReplyDelete
It's going to be interesting to see how the rest of the day plays out. If sunshine holds, then things could fire up more than expected here.
With the surface low progged over SE ND by 7 pm this evening, warm front will have a tough time getting much further north than GFK today, especially with pronounced NE cross isobaric surface flow north of the warm front. As a result, any surface based tstms today should be mainly south of the border where SPC outlines moderate risk.ReplyDelete
However, we have an impressive push of warm and moist air at 850 mb pushing into SE MB by this evening, setting the stage for an east-west band of elevated thunderstorms that would develop near or south of the US border and push north across RRV/SE MB this evening. Heavy rain and hail would be the main threat from these storms as they push north this evening.
The SPC is also predicting the main tornado threat will remain south of the border.ReplyDelete
Cell popping up southwest of Morden.. could be the first sign of elevated convection staring to develop.ReplyDelete
Beginning to rain here. Any estimates on how much so far in Charleswood, Rob?ReplyDelete
My weather station has picked up 4 mm as of 4 pm.. bulk of rain is falling to our west. thankfully. But we can still see some heavy rain this evening/tonight from elevated tstorms. I hope not. For something that is supposed to be healthy and beneficial for the earth, I sure am getting tired of seeing rain. Mother nature can shut off the taps for the next 6 months as far as I'm concerned..
Oh come on now 6 months is a bit extreme :) I for one am hoping for a good thunderstorm its been too long since we've had one!ReplyDelete
Seems like everyone and their mother is predicting above normal precip for southern MB this summer (Environment Canada, Accuwx Brett Anderson, and now The Weather Network).ReplyDelete
29 C in Fargo
15 C in Grand Forks
as of 6:00 p.m!
Now that's a warm front!!
Why is our temperatures going to drop with a south wind tomorrow afternoon?? That is the last thing I expected!
Looks like some thunderstorms firing up south of the border!ReplyDelete
One cell in particular looks strong just entering southern Manitoba now!
I agree that forecast for tomorrow looks odd with falling temperatures and a south wind. More likely, winds will shift into the west in the afternoon and northwest by evening as the low center moves to our northeast.. and it's those westerly winds which will cause the temperatures to fall.
Storms have just exploded south of the border with numerous tornado warnings now!ReplyDelete
The Birds Hill lightning detector has exploded in the past 15 minutes! Some thunderstorms also firing up here as well.ReplyDelete
Thunderstorm in Charleswood.. brief heavy downpour. Good thing U2 concert wasn't tonight!ReplyDelete
This all the storms we'll get tonight?ReplyDelete
I think it's pretty much over for Winnipeg, at least for tonight.. bulk of tstorms will move to our east and northeast through the evening and overnight hours with locally heavy rain and some hail mainly over SE MB.ReplyDelete
Thank you Rob, I guess I can go to sleep after all :PReplyDelete
Nice lightning in Steinbach at 10:40pm. Pea to marble sized hail about an hour ago.ReplyDelete
I'm seeing some thunderstorm cells coming up just south of Winnipeg. Not sure if they will survive but I'm staying up to watch in case :)ReplyDelete
It looks like the thunderstorm will graze us in central south-west River Heights. A bit of rain so far, nothing much, but the night is still young.ReplyDelete
I watched the local CTV news from Saturday night and they said we'd get rain at 11:00 PM Monday! Here it is 12:14 Tuesday morning. They really blew it! An hour and a quarter off. Sometimes the predictions are uncanny.
Some pretty big booms going on out there now.ReplyDelete
Forecast winds of 70-90 km/h and no wind warnings???
Or our the winds going to be that strong for a such a short period of time that no wind warning needed?
Models really indecisive for the later part of the week...high of only 14 predicted now on Saturday...at one point it was looking like a major warm-up was in store with temperatures near the 30 degree mark! Guess we'll just have to wait!ReplyDelete
You're correct.. winds of 70G90 km/h are warning criteria winds.. not sure why a wind warning is not in effect. Personally, I don't think we'll hit those numbers.. we have a tight cyclonic gradient around a deep low moving into the Interlake. Northwesterlies kick in later this afternoon as we tap a low level jet of 50 knots with cold advection, so gusts of 70-80 km/h are likely, but I don't think we'll see the 70G90 km/h needed for a wind warning.
Still, northwest winds gusting to 70 or 80 km/h on Lake Manitoba will be bad news for those folks.. along with all the rain they had over the past 24 hours.
Yeah, I saw the back pedalling on the long range.. not happy about that. Seems we just can't kick into summer gear this year.. really annoying. I want some sun and heat!
Anyone wanna go surfing on Lake Manitoba???ReplyDelete
Gonna catch some major waves today!!
Might want to bring your parka instead of your swimsuit with these temperatures!
I guess the "JETS" fans will have fun today at portage and main!ReplyDelete
Hold on to your jersey!!
Hopefully next batch of showers holds off until this afternoon after big announcement.. RUC shows cold front going through Winnipeg around 3-4 pm, after which time we'll get strong northwest winds and falling temperatures, with some wrap around rain likely.ReplyDelete
Western Manitoba is getting slammed with more heavy rain today!!ReplyDelete
When all is said and done some areas will probably end up seeing close to 70 mm of rain!!!
CWB Souris is reporting 52mm since 3pm yesterday.ReplyDelete
Winds are really starting to pick up to our west!ReplyDelete
71 km/h gust in Portage and 82 km/h gust in Brandon!
For all you Jets fans celebrating at the Forks.. bundle up! Here comes the rain, the wind and the falling temperatures!ReplyDelete
A 91 km/h wind gust in Gladstone a few minutes ago! Whoa!ReplyDelete
Portage La Prairie is also reporting 91 km/h winds...most likely some tree damage there!!ReplyDelete
Good thing Environment Canada issued wind warning! Things are getting very windy out there!!!ReplyDelete
Whoa North perimeter area wind came in one big wave and now just nuts,ReplyDelete
Some wind damage around the city!ReplyDelete
Large pine tree uprooted at Pembina and Jubilee!
Special weather summary was issued this morning for this past storm!ReplyDelete
Some impressive rain and wind readings.
Environment Canada was right in their original predicition of 90km/h wind gusts!
Where is Special weather summary posted? I check EC's website but could not find it.ReplyDelete
Go to U of M weather central homepage, click under weather data and click on weather "weather bulletins", and click on weather summarys!ReplyDelete
Look out for some thunderstorms, possibly severe, tomorrow as a warm front moves into extreme southern Manitoba.ReplyDelete
Strong cap will be in place tomorrow in North Dakota and Minnesota. We'll be on the northern edge of it which is a good spot to be in these situations.
Did you see the news footage out of Lake Manitoba and delta beach area??ReplyDelete
It looked like a hurricane with the high waves and wind!
Rainfall summaries were also posted? on the last 2 Prov Flood Reports totals May 28-31 and Today May 27 to Jun 1 (8am)ReplyDelete
More water headed our way!(Reuters)(June 2/11) - Authorities pressed a mandatory evacuation on Wednesday in flood-hit parts of Minot, North Dakota,--------.ReplyDelete
Police and National Guard soldiers went door-to-door in Minot urging up to 12,000 residents to evacuate as officials cut natural gas service to neighborhoods affected by rising waters along the Souris River, a Red River tributary.
Severe TS warning at 10:37 for SW corner of MB.ReplyDelete
On my name or RobsObs warning page then Southern MB Warnings.
I'm growing a little weary of that Icelandic Volcano GrimVotn (AKA Laki),or Eyjafjallajokul, Hekla, Askja, Katla, or Surtsey) etc catching all the Headlines and those Icelandic settlers in ND and Gimli catching all the fallout aka rain and snow.ReplyDelete
What, if any, is the immediate, say next month or 6, effect on our weather?
Look at that TS over Brandon on Radar . Is there a live web cam??ReplyDelete