Sunday, December 26, 2010
A mild start to the week.. with a potentially stormy finish..
After a cold and windy Boxing day, temperatures will be on the upswing starting Monday as a mild Pacific airmass moves across the Prairies. Gusty southerly winds tonight into Monday morning will shift into the west by afternoon or evening, which will send temperatures up to the freezing mark over southern MB for the first time since mid-November. The mild temperatures will continue through midweek before a change to colder and possibly snowier weather by the end of the week. Long range models are showing the potential for a storm system to spread some snow across southern MB by Thursday or Friday, with increasing winds and colder temperatures by the weekend. This storm has the potential to bring heavy snow and blizzard-like conditions over portions of the northern plains and parts of southern MB or NW Ontario as well. Stay tuned on this developing storm system..
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18z Sunday GFS back into the game now with strength of low more like its past days runs... 18z gfs track and strength is a thing of beauty.
ReplyDeleteAmong the two events the gfs snowfall accum we view in awips has swath of 15 to 20 inches devils lake and grand forks to winnipeg.
Probably will not be that strong....but even ECMWF would have 8 to 10 inches of snow for far ne northeast north dakota into southern manitoba.
Not that I relish digging out my driveway after the storm....but during such a snowstorm there is such a feeling of awe and excitement for me.
Thanks Dan.. we'll be watching. If that 18Z GFS verifies, we're in big trouble! Gotta admit though, a good ole fashioned Prairie blizzard would be an exciting start to the new year!
ReplyDeleteYes I love extreme weather events....as most mets do. I am looking over the posts from NYC area on americanwx.com/bb/ to watch their take on their current storm. Getting thundersnow in Midtown Manhattan at 515 pm with 3 inch per hr snows. I would have to be sedatated if that would occur here.
ReplyDeleteYeah..pretty awesome storm. Teterboro (KTEB) is showing 1/16 +TSSN BLSN G30 kt!
ReplyDeleteLatest GEM and GFS runs tonight showing an increasing liklihood of accumulating snow over southern MB Thursday into Friday.. with significant amounts of 10 to 20 cm possible for Winnipeg and the RRV/SE MB. GFS brings most of the snow Thursday and then takes the main storm further east into the Great Lakes by Friday... while the GEM is slower and has snow spreading in Thursday into Thursday night, then continuing Friday as the main low deepens over NW Ontario with strong winds and snow wrapping around on the backside over southern MB with potential for poor vsbys in snow and blowing snow. Will have to see how this unfolds but it's looking like an interesting.. and record breaking.. finish to 2010!
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like everyone is gung-ho about breaking the record!
ReplyDeleteIt would almost seem certain that the wettest year for Winnipeg is a given but....
Rob!
ReplyDeleteOn the poll how many MM of precip over the record will it have to be before it is " IN THE BAG"
as opposed to "JUST BARELY"
That gusty south wind is keeping things cold and blustery in the valley this morning, with reduced vsby in blowing snow at times. Meanwhile, westerly winds have pushed temperatures to the freezing mark over southern SK this morning. It will be late in the day before we see our winds shift to the west in the valley so don't let that high of zero fool you if you're out this morning!
ReplyDeleteIs that slowdown on EC and nohrsc.noaa web sites this morning due to traffic ??
ReplyDeleteNWS out of Grand Forks states there is a risk of freezing rain with this system in ND!
ReplyDeleteWhat chances of a mix here in southern Manitoba???
EC must be celebrating New Year's early. Almost 10 degrees off from their projected daily high.
ReplyDeleteWarm air is oh so close with -2 in Carman and 0 in Portage. So our high temperature in Winnipeg may still be much higher than it is right now if we can get any kind of westerly component to the wind, which should occur later this evening. So EC may not be wrong afterall.
ReplyDeleteTemperature has popped up to -5C in Steinbach as of 8pm.
ReplyDeleteWith temperatures still around 0C in Portage, Winnipeg should still climb a few degrees this evening when the wind shifts. It is strange to see the wind shift in Steinbach before Winnipeg though...
Sorry this is kind of off topic for the next big storm to come, that, by the way I can't wait for. Anyways I'm looking to buy a GOOD weather station as I used to have one and it broke down :(. Any ideas on where to start, where to buy, any ideas would be greatly appreciated.
ReplyDeleteThanks, and happy holidays to all!!!
Mr Farms..
ReplyDeleteI always recommend getting a Davis Vantage Pro weather station. They're the best. A little pricey but pretty much professional quality and accuracy at reasonable prices. I've had one now for almost 10 years, and it's been virtually trouble free and dependable that whole time.
A standard Davis Vantage Pro weather station (wireless) will give all you the basics (temp, RH, rainfall, wind, pressure) for around $600. I would recommend buying through a wholesaler like Ambient Weather (US) or Farmtronics (Canada) for better prices than direct from Davis. If you want to post your data to the internet, you'll need a Davis datalogger and Weatherlink software which will add another $250 or so to your cost.
Davis recently added a new station called the Vantage Vue, but the anemometer cannot be separated from the instrument suite for better wind readings. If that's not an issue for you, the Vantage Vue is a little cheaper and easier to install.
Hope that helps..
Scott..
ReplyDeleteI think what happened is that the southwest wind and milder air literally jumped over the Red River valley and surfaced in Steinbach before Winnipeg. That's why Winnipeg and Morris were still around -9C while you guys popped to -5C. Lucky us, we get stuck with cold air trapped in the valley with a south wind until the westerlies are strong enough to flush the cold air out. Looks like it's finally happening with our temperature starting to pop a bit this evening..
00Z GFS has moved the system a bit further west. This puts South-Eastern Manitoba in line for some snow on Friday, but the GFS still leaves Winnipeg out of the second wave of snow. However, the ECMWF and GEM both put Winnipeg in the second wave of snow.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that a "squall line" has formed along the cold front...it is about to move into Winnipeg!
00Z GGEM spreads an area of snow across southern MB Wednesday night into Thursday with initial wave of energy pushing across northern Plains. General snowfall amounts of 10-15 cm indicated across most of southern MB including Winnipeg. Snow then moves out Friday before secondary and more powerful low develops to our east over NW Ontario and spreads snow back along the MB/ON border along with strong NW winds. Could see a few more cm out of that according to the GEM along with considerable blowing and drifting snow in the RRV. GFS is very similar to the GGEM solution as well.
ReplyDeleteNAM on the other hand is slower but more intense with the initial wave, bringing heavy snow and gusty north winds across Winnipeg and the RRV Thursday afternoon through Thursday night into Friday. NAM indicating possible 30 cm of snow for Winnipeg and RRV with the worst conditions Thursday night. This seems a bit extreme, but it's a possibility to consider.
Putting it all together as a first guess of what may transpire.. first wave of snow moving through southern MB Thursday with 10-20 cm of snow possible. Snow moves out Friday, but we possibly get clipped by another 2-5 cm Friday night as a second more intense storm develops to our east. Cold and blustery conditions as well New Years Eve with blowing and drifting snow through the RRV. Stay tuned..