The overnight snowfall produced 2.5 mm of melted precipitation at Winnipeg airport, bringing the total precipitation this year to 719.5 mm (total of all rain and melted snow since Jan 1st). This makes 2010 the second wettest year of all time since annual records began in Winnipeg in 1873, and only 4 mm away from the all time wettest year of 1962 (723.3 mm) The question now is.. will we break the record? If we do, it likely won't be until the last few days of the year since the weather this week looks quiet with little or no precipitation expected through the Christmas holidays. Ensemble forecasts hint at some precipitation moving into Winnipeg between Dec 29th and Jan 1st, but it's too early to say whether Winnipeg will see another 4 mm of precipitation over that period. Whatever the case, it's been an exceptionally wet year in the Red River valley and much of the Prairies, especially surprising given the fact the year started off quite dry over the first 4 months. Let's hope the rest of the winter and upcoming spring do not continue the wet trend.
Top 5 wettest years in Winnipeg (annual records since 1873)
1962 ..... 723.3 mm
2010 ..... 719. 5 mm
1953 ..... 718.4 mm
1977 ..... 715.0 mm
2000 .... 701.6 mm
Final snowfall total in Steinbach is 6cm. Liquid equivalent is 6.6mm, making the ratio 9:1. The liquid equivalent seems to be a bit on the high side, but that is what my manual gauge collected. Snow on the ground is 27cm.ReplyDelete
In terms of model accuracy, the European (ECMWF) won again. It was predicting 0.1" in Winnipeg (2.5mm) and around 5mm in Steinbach. NAM and GFS were a bit too far south, while the GEM (at least the GEM runs I have access to) were way too high.
All I want for Christmas this year is a Blizzard so we can break the record!!ReplyDelete
I wonder if Santa can deliver???
Regardless....Merry Christmas to everyone on this blog!!!HO HO HO!
Blizzard.. not for us maybe. But models are showing the potential for a major nor'easter that could affect the east Coast into the Maritimes Boxing day into Monday. European model is suggesting a potential blizzard for the DC-BOS corridor.ReplyDelete
BTW, if you use Unisys for model data, they made a major change to their website which resulted in changes to the URLs of model guidance (NAM, GFS, etc). I've updated the links on my website to reflect those new URLs..
Daniel...you might get your wish for a blizzard, but it won't be on Christmas Day. The GFS and ECMWF are showing a major system affecting Southern Manitoba around Jan. 1. The latest GFS is showing over 40mm of precip for Steinbach and about 30mm of precip for Winnipeg between Dec 31 and Jan 2. All of this would be snow, so that would mean 25 to 50cm of snow over all of Southern Manitoba. The ECMWF is not quite that aggressive, but it is still showing 20 to 30mm of precip across all of Southern Manitoba, which would easily be 20 to 30cm of snow. The GFS has been showing this storm for the last 4 runs, while the European just picked up on it during its 00Z run last night. This will certainly be something to keep an eye on.ReplyDelete
I saw that storm on the models!
Oh.....and Rob has a new poll!
This one could come right down to the last day!
The latest GFS is showing a very bad blizzard for southern Manitoba and northern Plains next weekend!ReplyDelete
I know....I know! It is still a very long way off but I think If that were to happen there would be some major issues!
NWS GF held a news conference dealing the montly updated AHPS 90 day river stage outlooks. Now the spring flood is at the tail end of this outlook and typically percentages of higher stages will increase as more current data such as snow depth/water gets in. But it goes without saying the forecasts are very alarming for a severe flood in the red river valley. I personally have never seen the river so high in GF-EGF this time of year and in fact so turbulent that the Red hasnt frozen over yet in the middle part of the river right around where the Red Lake enters into the Red. I live in East Grand Forks and drive over that area many times a day.
On my name is a link to the latest outlook graphs. Note over the past 3 years most actual flooding events have averaged around that 5 pct historical height. Right now 5 pct would give Pembina very near 55 ft which is right on with the highest stage ever in 1997. 5 pct in GF would be about 53-54 ft and Fargo over 40ft.
For the Devils Lake basin there snow depths are around 30-35 inches from our coooperative observers with snow cores showing possibly 6 inches of water already. There is a 50-50 chc Devils Lake will get to 1454.6 ft by September, which would be 2 1/2 ft abv last summers record.
We continue to be in close contact with the new guy at Manitoba hydro who prepares updates for the Red in your province.
Got 2 of the pieces in....now of course just to see how much snow we can get and how the melt will go.
FYI I too have noticed very similar trends in a large storm the 31st-01st. I do hope that winnipeg can get 4 mm....so close might has well break it.
Thanks for the update Dan.. obviously a big concern for us going into the rest of the winter into spring. We have the same concerns here as you with the abnormally high river levels going into freeze-up. We'll be watching this closely over the next few weeks..ReplyDelete
Here in southern MB, snowdepths range from about 20-30 cm in the RRV to 30-50 cm over SW MB where they've had a couple more storms than us. Generally though, it's been a quiet December for us in the northern RRV after a stormy latter half of November.
This comment has been removed by the author.ReplyDelete
Interesting update Dan but as they said whats come before accounts for less than half of the variability (usually). I'm blown away by the Devils Lake numbers. Another 2.5 feet to 1457 would increase the size of the lake from just over 200 sq. miles now, to close to 400 sq miles??ReplyDelete
It would appear that the Red Lake area of Minnesota which accounts for a major portion of the GFK RR watershed is the only area not reporting huge increases.
Latest models runs continue with the big storm for Jan 1 (with one exception).ReplyDelete
The 12Z ECMWF still puts the system right over our area - with generally 20 to 25mm of precipitation for all of Southern Manitoba. The 18Z GFS was showing 10 to 30mm of precip over S MB, but the 00Z GFS moved the system very far off to the east, missing Manitoba completely. I suspect that is probably just an anomaly, since the 00Z GEM is now showing the system impacting S MB with 15 to 40mm of precipitation. So if you discount the 00Z GFS (and use the 18Z instead), all three major long-range models aim this system right at us.
P.S. I forgot to mention that the GEM is actually giving SE MB 10 to 20mm of rain with the system as well as 10 to 20cm of snow.ReplyDelete
Whoa! Plus 2C forecast for Monday? Might be a tad optimistic.. but temperatures approaching the freezing mark are likely early next week as a push of mild Pacific air moves across the Prairies. For Winnipeg to get above freezing, we would need a westerly flow at the surface to flush out sub-freezing air in the Red River valley. Current model guidance shows we may have more of a southerly wind Monday which would decrease our chances of getting above zero.. but westerlies are likely by Tuesday with above normal temps likely through mid week. Then we'll have to see what happens with that potential New years storm over the central plains.ReplyDelete
What I'd really like to see is some sun! We've been stuck in low cloud for days now under a dirty ridge, with no wind to clear things out. Forecasts keep trying to clear things up "tomorrow" into the extended range.. but persistence seems to be the better forecast. This is especially true if we continue with above normal temps which usually translates to more cloud cover for us. So don't put a lot of faith in those bright sunny icons you keep seeing in the forecast!
Do you mean that +4 in yesterdays forecast was not an early xmas present? lolReplyDelete
It's +30° all over again!ReplyDelete
Could we get a few mm of water out all this "fluff" that fell yesterday and will be falling today???
The latest GFS is showing the Twin Cities getting blasted with a monster blizzard! The last thing they need is a storm!!!ReplyDelete
Send the blizzard over here...LOL!
You have to think that we have had a couple mm of water with all of the flurries we've had over the last several days. It seems to have a fair amount of moisture in it but would be almost unmeasuable.ReplyDelete
Is 7 days a long time to get another 4mm of pcpn. NOT or maybe?ReplyDelete
Ex July, Rob's measured at least 20mm in the last week of every month this year since March. Eyeball avg of 45 for the last 8 months. It's in the bag.
Then again, only 2003,4,6 and 9 have had 4mm or more in the last week this millennium.
Actually these flurries have had very little moisture content. The airport hasn't picked up anything measurable over the past few days.. maybe they'll pick up 0.5 mm today with the slightly heavier flurries, but nothing close to giving us the record. We'll need help from a Colorado low to do that :)ReplyDelete
Received about 2 cm of fluff today.. very dry with little moisture content. Snow on ground 23 cm. I took a core sample of the snowpack and it melted down to 31 mm water equivalent. That's from a total 68 cm of accumulated snow since mid November.ReplyDelete
Latest GFS is a little further northwest on the potential New Years storm.. which would bring accumulating snow and strong winds to at least the RRV and SE MB by Jan 1st or 2nd. This is a change from their 12z run which showed the main low developing further south over Texas and then moving northeast.. which usually means the storm missing us. ECMWF has a Colorado low forming which would have a greater chance of affecting southern MB with significant snowfall. There will be a few more model iterations before we can start thinking about impacts to southern MB.. if any. Note that these long range models are highly sensitive to model initialization inaccuracies.. so caution is advised in over-analysing each run depending on how well or poorly they initialize.ReplyDelete
Happy Boxing day Sunday! I have been following the storm at the end of next week at long range models have been pretty consisent in showing a northward moving low-upr low through minnesota. track if pretty climo favored for these type of systems with blocking to the east. That doesnt mean things cant change....but something is in the works. Looks like a wind one too which we havent had yet this year. With SD 30 inches in Devils Lake and 6 to 15 inches elsewhere lots of snow to blow around for sure.
Seems to me also these types of storms love to track due north and almost end up being a bit west of where you would think. Will need to keep this in mind.
Before this one....does look like some snowfall for Winnipeg enough with GFS more gungho. Hoping Winnipeg can get 5 mm.
Hi Dan GF!ReplyDelete
Yes the models have been all over the place with the storm at the end of the week!
I still have not voted on Rob's poll yet cause I want to wait till the last day to see if there are any last minute changes!
Looks like area's in open country are getting low visibility's in blowing snow this morning!ReplyDelete
Even here in Winnipeg the air is filled with either ice crystals or it's all the snow that is airbourne!!
What a nasty wind that is! One step outside the building this morning sent me right back inside!
I guess Weather network models are calling for a direct hit for a storm on the weekend with them calling for well in excess of 20cm as of this morning. EC is just calling for a 60 percent chance of flurries on thursday and sunny the rest of the weekend. How long will it take to the track of that storm becomes more certain.ReplyDelete
I've always thought that The Weather Network must use raw output from the GFS (or some other long-range model) for the bulk of their forecasts. That explains why TWN forecasts will often show big storms in the forecast way out in the long-range. However, the weakness of using that system is that you are completely at the mercy of the models. I like the idea that EC has by using ensemble forecasts for day 6 and 6. However, the ensemble tends to lean in the opposite direct by resisting the urge to display anything too extreme.ReplyDelete
The models are indicating a wave of snow on Thursday night into Friday which will help in getting us very close to breaking the record!!! GO SNOW , GO SNOW!ReplyDelete
Ensembles are the way to go for extended range forecasts. You shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket (i.e. model), since those models will change run to run depending on initialization errors. Best to go with a more conservative ensemble 4 to 7 days out, then start looking at model trends/agreement in the Day 1 to 3 range, then short range analysis/diagnosis techniques in the last 12 hours. Even this strategy won't always give you the right answer, but you'll be more successful than not.ReplyDelete
As for the storm later this week.. still a fair level of uncertainty in the overall evolution but some similarities starting to become evident. The GFS/GGEM/ECMWF all bring a leading wave across the northern Plains with snow overspreading ND and southern MB by Friday Dec 31st. Snow amounts too early to call, but a very preliminary guess of 5-10 cm looks possible over southern MB.
After that we get some divergence as the ECMWF pulls this wave to the east by the weeknd, whereas the GGEM and GFS intensify it as the main energy rounds the upper trof to our west. The effect of this is to prolong the snow over southern MB through Saturday with strong winds to boot. Overall ensembles suggest the bulk of the heaviest snow would be over ND, nrn MN and NW Ontario Friday into Saturday, with southern MB on the edge of the heaviest accumulations. Right now, the RRV and SE MB would have the greatest chance of seeing accumulations Friday into Saturday. Given the uncertainties at this stage, I think a 60% chance of snow for Friday is the most prudent forecast right now for Winnipeg, although I'm thinking that the chance will linger into Saturday as well. I will be posting a new thread on this potential storm system this afternoon..
I know the extended fcst is automated up there...but how is it that is says sunny fri and sat when the GEM has been showing this storm as well for days at least into southeast Manitoba. Just curious how your system works. I thought is was computed generated fcst based on the GEM.
Damn! I hope we get that record. It will be a great story to tell the grandkids.ReplyDelete
The guy at this link has an ingenious way to measure real-time snow depth:
The extended forecasts for Day 3-5 is automatically generated from the GGEM (which goes out to 120 hrs). Day 6-7 is generated from the Canadian ensemble system (CEFS) which I don't know too much about, but can quite often be at odds from what the GGEM is showing. I've noticed that the CEFS ensemble product tends to be too dry and frequently will gloss over pcpn events. Temperatures can be wonky at times too, and you'll sometimes see a major change between the Day 5 and Day 6 forecasts that is just attributable to a change in the model producing the forecast. I'd much prefer us using the NAEFS to produce the Day 4-7 forecasts.. it seems like a much better ensemble product than the CEFS.
That explains why Friday and Saturday say "sunny" right now.. it's based on the CEFS. I suspect that the Friday forecast tomorrow will mention some pcpn when it's produced by the GGEM.
That is ingenious indeed!! Amazing what weather hobbyists can come up with!
YWG airport picked up 0.5 mm of melted snow yesterday (likely remnants from the day before as well) so our total for 2010 is now up to 720.0 mm. So we're basically 3.5 mm away from a new record.. let's see if we can get it by Friday!ReplyDelete
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